Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

[sun_tzu]

So, the order of events is going to be
1) Deal doesnt pass
2) VoNC
3)Extension
4) GE.

My question is even if Labor/ Conservatives win with a majority in the GE, which I doubt would be the case, what is going to be different in terms of the deal with EU?. Is there going to be a different deal at this table or will the next government push through the same Irish sea border deal/No deal with the majority they have.

Is there any option, EU will be offering up a different deal that hasn't been discussed over the last three years?. Even after the change of PM's , there are only three concrete choices, Revoke, May/Boris's deal/No deal and I donot see it changing no matter who is in power. Am I missing something?

If labour win an outright majority they are then going to go and request another extension t renegotiate the deal (added unicorns) and put it to a referendum
As for conservatives - depends whats in their manifesto - they may go WTO no deal in a manifesto they may go with the boris deal

Most likley though neither win outright and either the dup/brexit party or the libs/SNP actually are the king makers who would have to sign off on a policy

 

[sammsky1]

There is a deal, probably nobody is really happy with it... so its probably right!

Junker and Boris have (perhaps by the law of unintended consequences) joined forces to put the opposition in the UK on the backfoot, if they throw it out, no extension, so straight to no deal. Both can stand tall, its not their fault, Junker can retire without ignominy, Boris can face the Leavers with "I told you I'd do it, not my fault the opposition have rejected it"

Of course its not over yet, the fat lady hasn't sung and in particular what will the opposition do? Vote it down, or more than likely try to add the amendment for a second referendum. Assuming that does go through and the deal + amendment is passed by Parliament. The question then becomes... what about the referendum v GE?

If its the referendum that comes first will the opposition seriously ask everyone to go through such a traumatic event again (risking another close result, or even a third referendum) and turn down the deal, when in fact the deal is already passed, or will they call for Article 50 to be revoked, which presumably once the EU and HM Government has ratified the deal, then article 50 will by then, not be 'in play'.
,
Does anyone know the answer to any of these questions, that they would care to share?

I voted remain.

I think the country is now manifestly better educated about the pro's and con's of Brexit. Especially after another round of campiagning.

I would truly accept any result in a 2nd referendum: if Leave wins, so be it.

Honest Guv.

 

[Simbo]

She was on radio 5 this morning, it was refreshing to have someone that genuinely seemed to know what they were talking about making some sensible points for a change. Now I've seen her I might just be in love.

 

[BobbyManc]

its a strange world when I find myself passionately agreeing with Nigel Farage. It has all gone nuts.

Have you actually read what he's claimed? He's trying to argue that Juncker is 'overriding' the Benn act which is literally impossible.

 

[Smores]

So, the order of events is going to be
1) Deal doesnt pass
2) VoNC
3)Extension
4) GE.

My question is even if Labor/ Conservatives win with a majority in the GE, which I doubt would be the case, what is going to be different in terms of the deal with EU?. Is there going to be a different deal at this table or will the next government push through the same Irish sea border deal/No deal with the majority they have.

Is there any option, EU will be offering up a different deal that hasn't been discussed over the last three years?. Even after the change of PM's , there are only three concrete choices, Revoke, May/Boris's deal,No deal and I donot see it changing no matter who is in power. Am I missing something?

There won't be another significantly new withdrawal agreement at a stretch Labour may get some amendments to realign standards so a mixture of Boris and Mays deal perhaps.

We're just in the game of anyone getting enough numbers to push something through.

Tories get a majority = Boris deal
Labour or no majority = ends up another referendum.

 

[sammsky1]

Big risk not to go for it now
Very possible Saturday ends with a Johnson defeat and a confidence motion early next week
Even assuming a leader for a temporary gnu to get the extension and call an immediate election can be found there is a decent chance that the conservatives + brexit get a majority.
This could literally be the last amendable motion there is so yeah it would be a brave call to pass it up hoping a better chance comes along

Lets say Johnson loses the vote on Saturday, and the day ends up as VONC followed by formation of GNU.

Would EU really have the balls to then tell 'GNU leader/whoever writes letter' that it was not willing for a further delay and force UK off the cliff without any deal?

That would cause chaos and uproar like never before.

 

[sammsky1]

Have you actually read what he's claimed? He's trying to argue that Juncker is 'overriding' the Benn act which is literally impossible.

He's also making as sure as he possibly can that Benn act is retained. Its fine margins for remoaners like me .. I'll take any unintended advantage right now

 

[Maticmaker]

but also he actually said there is no need for an extension now because there is a deal on the table

Correct, but Macron has already given notice that he would oppose an extension and Junker knows this, so the chances are even if the deal is not passed by the UK parliament then Macron and may be one or two other EU heads of state who have so far backed the official line (i.e. to support Ireland) are now looking to what comes next! For the French it seems the fishing deal will be one of the most important FT deals.

As with other Heads of state Macron would prefer a deal, but if the UK keeps shooting itself in the foot, he's not only going to take the bullets away, but the gun as well! There is really no point to an Extension, what will change? Yes there may be another referendum, or even a third one, yes there maybe a GE, but then what pops up from any of that?

It is not only UK businesses that are suffering from the indecision and uncertainty, businesses in the rest of the EU are also in the same boat. Its gone on long enough, what with Trump's sanctions and another flare up likely in the Middle East, the worlds economy is slowing down rapidly, hence Brexit has to be put to bed now so other matters can get the attention they need, not least of course Climate Change.

Actually its probably the only thing Boris and Macron agree on.

 

[sun_tzu]

Lets say Johnson loses the vote on Saturday, and the day ends up as VONC followed by formation of GNU.

Would EU really have the balls to then tell 'leader of GNU/whoever writes the letter' that it was not willing for a further delay?

That would cause chaos and uproar like never before.

No I thin the EU Grant the extension.... IF we can find a PM to request it.

Because if Boris looses there is 14 days to find somebody who can carry the confidence of the house and the Libs / ex conservatives say they wont back corbyn (though not really 14 days as its going to take some time to send the letter, get a reply and pass the extension in parliament... perhaps 5 days?)

And Labour say they wont back a compromise candidate (clarke or becket)

So first things first we have to get somebody to request the extension

Personally i think if boris writes the letter (and grants the extension) then labour might concede an election under the fixed term parliament act to avoid the issues of agreeing the composition of a GNU (which I think will look bad for all opposition parties as it will be seen as party politics in the midst of a constitutional crisis)

 

[Maticmaker]

Would EU really have the balls to then tell 'GNU leader/whoever writes letter' that it was not willing for a further delay and force UK off the cliff without any deal?

Yes of course, because they know whoever is just a stand-in/temporary/only here for the beer person, unless... just possibly if it is Jeremy they just might succumb. However I doubt it, the Heads of State effectively shut down Barnier when he asked for negotiations to cease at 8.00am yesterday, this seeming to signal to EU 'watchers' that the Heads of State are now taking the lead and are getting into their stride to take on the Free trade dealing second phase.

 

[Fluctuation0161]

its a strange world when I find myself passionately agreeing with Nigel Farage. It has all gone nuts.

It has, if you have not read the actual quote being misinterpreted by our trusty UK press.

 

[sammsky1]

Yes of course, because they know whoever is just a stand-in/temporary/only here for the beer person, unless... just possibly if it is Jeremy they just might succumb. However I doubt it, the Heads of State effectively shut down Barnier when he asked for negotiations to cease at 8.00am yesterday, this seeming to signal to EU 'watchers' that the Heads of State are now taking the lead and are getting into their stride to take on the Free trade dealing second phase.

It’s all just opinions but I’m not so sure. By taking that approach, they’d make an enemy of a PM other than BJ, especially if it’s one who can chart a path towards revoke.

 

[sammsky1]

It has, if you have not read the actual quote being misinterpreted by our trusty UK press.

I’ve just read the above tweet. Am out and about so relying on this thread for my updates.

 

[sammsky1]

 

[Paul the Wolf]

To get an extension for what?

The only three possible leave scenarios have been presented with the two agreements or no deal. The only one left is Remain.
No, unicorns don't exist.

 

[Redplane]

Despite the mess - At least the UK has a way to get rid of its shitty leaders. Count your blessings folks.

 

[owlo]

It's all very confused currently. I can't get any sort of handle on the thinking of the opposition. Heard [through 3rd parties in many cases] about 3 different things from 3 or 4 different pretty senior Labour figures. Corbyn seems all at sea and totally conflicted.

Only thing I can predict with any sort of confidence right now is that the deal won't come close to passing. BJ is trying the same bullyboy tactics that May did, and it won't work.

- On a 2nd referendum amendment - No idea
- On a VoNC - No idea

I don't think anybody knows anything except the Tory side of the chess board.

 

[Maticmaker]

they’d make an enemy of a PM

Only a temporary PM, there only by the grace of his/her otherwise opponents, who will stab him/her in the back as soon as its possible. To be honest I would think dealing with a temporary PM would be the last thing the EU would want right now, especially one who couldn't guarantee anything except perhaps a new throw of the dice with a second and maybe third referendum, which in turn couldn't guarantee any other outcome except perhaps the further uncertainty with a follow up GE, which also might lead to a 'hung' Parliament... rewind the tape please!

Its true the EU would like us to stay, but not at any cost, for them as well as the majority in the UK, it has to end. The truth is the fat lady has taken to the stage and is limbering up by running through the scales!

 

[Paul the Wolf]

its a strange world when I find myself passionately agreeing with Nigel Farage. It has all gone nuts.

There is nothing in that statement that is correct.

 

[Sassy Colin]

She was on radio 5 this morning, it was refreshing to have someone that genuinely seemed to know what they were talking about making some sensible points for a change. Now I've seen her I might just be in love.

I too find Katya strangely alluring.

However, I believe there is a website devoted to abusing her, because she is Jewish.

 

[Sassy Colin]

Despite the mess - At least the UK has a way to get rid of its shitty leaders. Count your blessings folks.

We don't seem to have a way getting rid of Brexit though.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Despite the mess - At least the UK has a way to get rid of its shitty leaders. Count your blessings folks.

They get rid of one and a worse one comes along. No sign of that stopping either.

 

[Maticmaker]

I too find Katya strangely alluring.

That maybe because she is also a 'Dr'...not sure what in, but she let it drop on last weeks Brexit podcast.

 

[sun_tzu]

That maybe because she is also a 'Dr'...not sure what in, but she let it drop on last weeks Brexit podcast.

.In recognition of her work, Adler was awarded honorary doctorates from Bristol University (LL.D) and the University of London (D.Litt) in July 2017.

Quite enjoy her take on things from the European pov on brexitcast

 

[2mufc0]

Sick and tired of this now just get it done.

 

[Mr Pigeon]

Sick and tired of this now just get it done.

Gerronwivvit?

Valid reasons to end the process; deal finalised, parliament backs it.

"Sick and tired" isn't a valid reason. It's something you say when you want to complain about the queue for a pizza in Asda.

 

[2mufc0]

Gerronwivvit?

Valid reasons to end the process; deal finalised, parliament backs it.

"Sick and tired" isn't a valid reason. It's something you say when you want to complain about the queue for a pizza in Asda.

Real talk. We have too many incompetent politicians, will there ever be a deal which parliament will back? Looks like this one is failing too.

 

[Mr Pigeon]

Real talk. We have too many incompetent politicians, will there ever be a deal which parliament will back? Looks like this one is failing too.

Personally I think we should put all the proposals into a tombola and see which one wins.

 

[sullydnl]

So.....

What do the Brexit nerds actually make of this deal as opposed to May's deal? Much of a muchness or is it distinctly better/worse from either the UK or EU's point of view?

 

[Fully Fledged]

So.....

What do the Brexit nerds actually make of this deal as opposed to May's deal? Much of a muchness or is it distinctly better/worse from either the UK or EU's point of view?

Distinctly worse. The governments own think thank said that this kind of deal would have a similar effect as the 2008 crash on our economy.

 

[Massive Spanner]

So.....

What do the Brexit nerds actually make of this deal as opposed to May's deal? Much of a muchness or is it distinctly better/worse from either the UK or EU's point of view?

It's almost as bad for the UK economy as no deal.

 

[sullydnl]

Sick and tired of this now just get it done.

Yep get it done - and let the more difficult trade negotiations that will also take years begin.

Brexit ain't gonna stop any time soon.

 

[Infra-red]

Yep get it done - and let the more difficult trade negotiations that will also take years begin.

Brexit ain't gonna stop any time soon.

Unless we revoke A50 and cancel Brexit - that is the only way this can all end soon.

Otherwise, Brexit will define our politics for a generation - none of us will escape it.

 

[sullydnl]

Distinctly worse. The governments own think thank said that this kind of deal would have a similar effect as the 2008 crash on our economy.

It's almost as bad for the UK economy as no deal.

Why is this deal so much worse for the UK economically than May's? I would have thought that the economic impact of Brexit would ultimately have been more tied to the impending trade negotiations?

 

[Infra-red]

So.....

What do the Brexit nerds actually make of this deal as opposed to May's deal? Much of a muchness or is it distinctly better/worse from either the UK or EU's point of view?

It's May's deal with a border in the Irish sea. This, as many predicted in August, was probably always Johnson's plan (rather than 'no deal'). He presumably hoped he'd have won an election and chucked out the DUP by now, though.

It doesn't matter anyway - there's no way it'll pass, so we're getting an extension and a "people vs Parliament" General Election.

 

[madzo2007]

She was on radio 5 this morning, it was refreshing to have someone that genuinely seemed to know what they were talking about making some sensible points for a change. Now I've seen her I might just be in love.

Katya Adler and RTE's Tony Connelly have been away ahead of the other journalists on the EU side of things. You should listen to the Brexitcast podcast, Katya is really good on that, funny as well.

 

[Eire Red United]

 

[Fully Fledged]

Why is this deal so much worse for the UK economically than May's? I would have thought that the economic impact of Brexit would ultimately have been more tied to the impending trade negotiations?

The new deal has scrapped the UK’s commitment to a ‘single customs territory’, confirming the need for checks at the border.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

So.....

What do the Brexit nerds actually make of this deal as opposed to May's deal? Much of a muchness or is it distinctly better/worse from either the UK or EU's point of view?

Brexit is a choice between Really Bad, Extremely Bad and Catastrophically bad so in the middle for the UK.

Parliament will never agree on anything so they'll probably be an extension, pointless, then a GE, Boris will win and the whole circus starts again until the EU say "we've had enough of this farce"

 

[horsechoker]

Unless we revoke A50 and cancel Brexit - that is the only way this can all end soon.

Otherwise, Brexit will define our politics for a generation - none of us will escape it.

Brexit is going to define our politics regardless of what happens, even if we remain.