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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


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Asked what would happen in regards to the border and border checks if Northern Ireland’s democratic institutions voted to end regulatory alignment with the EU, the official said: “That’s a discussion we will have closer to the time.”

That right there sums up how ridiculous this government is.

'Closer to the time'? They do realise it's already October? Perhaps somebody could point them in the direction of a calender?
 
https://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_STATEMENT-19-5978_en.htm

Statement by the European Commission following President Jean-Claude Juncker's phone call with Prime Minister Boris Johnson

Brussels, 2 October 2019

President Jean-Claude Juncker spoke to Prime Minister Johnson on the phone this afternoon. The Prime Minister informed the President about the contents of the UK's latest proposal – which includes a legal text, explanatory note and letter from Prime Minister Johnson.

President Juncker welcomed Prime Minister Johnson's determination to advance the talks ahead of the October European Council and make progress towards a deal. He acknowledged the positive advances, notably with regards to the full regulatory alignment for all goods and the control of goods entering Northern Ireland from Great Britain. However, the President also noted that there are still some problematic points that will need further work in the coming days, notably with regards to the governance of the backstop. The delicate balance struck by the Good Friday Agreement must be preserved. Another concern that needs to be addressed are the substantive customs rules. He also stressed that we must have a legally operational solution that meets all the objectives of the backstop: preventing a hard border, preserving North-South cooperation and the all-island economy, and protecting the EU's Single Market and Ireland's place in it.

President Juncker confirmed to Prime Minister Johnson that the Commission will now examine the legal text objectively, and in light of our well-known criteria.

The EU wants a deal. We remain united and ready to work 24/7 to make this happen – as we have been for over three years now.

Next steps

Meetings between the EU and UK negotiation teams will take place in Brussels over the coming days.

In keeping with the EU's transparency policy, we will inform the European Parliament and the Council at every step of the way. The European Commission's Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier and his team will update the European Parliament and the Council this evening. President Juncker will also speak to Taoiseach Leo Varadkar and will listen carefully to his views.

 


The responses to this tweet are quite fascinating. There's people in their that don't want a free trade agreement with the EU :lol:
 
I've only skimmed through, but I'm honestly shocked just how bad it is.

We literally haven't moved since 3 years ago when they started talking about mythical technological solutions. Pathetic tories.

Think it's actually gone backwards, at least May realised, on the whole, in the end what the problems were.

Now we're into the no blame game so the EU won't come out straight and say it's not possible and Johnson has proposed something that can't be possible - no deal still looks likely.
 


The responses to this tweet are quite fascinating. There's people in their that don't want a free trade agreement with the EU :lol:


Farage's words are even more moronic "any future trade deal needs good faith from the EU side."

Presume he thought the EU would give the UK whatever they asked for.
 
Think it's actually gone backwards, at least May realised, on the whole, in the end what the problems were.

Now we're into the no blame game so the EU won't come out straight and say it's not possible and Johnson has proposed something that can't be possible - no deal still looks likely.

Exactly. His tactic is all about pandering to the 'get it done' factions and trying to convince them that he is on their side. And it is those awful EU people who are trying to stop me from leaving at the end of October.
I mean really. How can anyone be so gullible as to believe that leaving then will be getting it done.
Leaving is most certainly not the end.
Leaving is when the problems really start.
 
Farage's words are even more moronic "any future trade deal needs good faith from the EU side."

Presume he thought the EU would give the UK whatever they asked for.
That seemed to be the Brexit Stance throughout the entire campaign so why change it now? :D
 
Exactly. His tactic is all about pandering to the 'get it done' factions and trying to convince them that he is on their side. And it is those awful EU people who are trying to stop me from leaving at the end of October.
I mean really. How can anyone be so gullible as to believe that leaving then will be getting it done.
Leaving is most certainly not the end.
Leaving is when the problems really start.

Quite, it's only the preliminaries, haven't even reached Chapter One yet.
Just think, in a month's time the UK could have reached the promised land. The first words of the Brexiters: "This isn't what we voted for, we want our money back".
Sad times.
 
Good. Feck the DUP as if they are the be all and end all of NI.
Why give the people a voice and kill their veto mechanisim? They want a deadlock and its sickening
 
Can someone explain to me as if I were 7 years old, what BJ's Ireland plan is?

If people or goods enter Ireland at Dublin, Cork or Limerick, and then head North, at what point will they have to show ID and papers?

If they want to enter mainland UK, at what point will people and goods face a UK or passport customs control?

Once Brexit is achieved and new trade deals are in place, will N.Ireland trade on UK terms or EU terms? Ditto, R.O.Ireland?

I'm very confused!
 
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Can someone explain to me as if I were 7 years old, what BJ's Ireland plan is?

If people or goods enter Ireland at Dublin, Cork or Limerick, and then head North, at what point will they have to show ID and papers?

If they want to enter mainland UK, at what point will they face a UK customs check or UK passport control? I'm very confused!
I figured I'd spare myself the effort, given it will flatly rejected anyway.
 
The proposal would require customs checks somewhere. An argument EU and Ireland have previously rejected. Does this also mean NI is not part of the UK and will stay part of the EU in some sense? Will Scotland not ask for a similar deal?

I'm confused. It's just a gimmick to blame the EU.
 
The proposal would require customs checks somewhere. An argument EU and Ireland have previously rejected. Does this also mean NI is not part of the UK and will stay part of the EU in some sense? Will Scotland not ask for a similar deal?

I'm confused. It's just a gimmick to blame the EU.
Indeed. Sounds like apart from title, UK would have ceded NI and unified Ireland. Surely thats the path over next few years?

Can EU people from Spain fly into Dublin, get up to Belfast and then jump on a plane or boat into mainland UK without passport control?

Just so they could honour a referendum?
 
Indeed. Sounds like apart from title, UK would have ceded NI and unified Ireland. Surely thats the path over next few years? Just so they could honour a referendum?
Does that mean we can get a Norn Irish passport and remain in the EU?
 
Does that mean we can get a Norn Irish passport and remain in the EU?
I have no idea. In my brain capacity, this has always been the unresolvable problem.

It has no clean answer except ceding NI to Ireland, which was not mentioned at referendum. As far as Im aware no-one voted for this as a referendum issue.
 
Gove is using the word 'sincere' repeatedly on Peston:rolleyes:
 
Can someone explain to me as if I were 7 years old, what BJ's Ireland plan is?

If people or goods enter Ireland at Dublin, Cork or Limerick, and then head North, at what point will they have to show ID and papers?

If they want to enter mainland UK, at what point will people and goods face a UK or passport customs control?

Once Brexit is achieved and new trade deals are in place, will N.Ireland trade on UK terms or EU terms? Ditto, R.O.Ireland?

I'm very confused!

The proposal would require customs checks somewhere. An argument EU and Ireland have previously rejected. Does this also mean NI is not part of the UK and will stay part of the EU in some sense? Will Scotland not ask for a similar deal?

I'm confused. It's just a gimmick to blame the EU.

Indeed. Sounds like apart from title, UK would have ceded NI and unified Ireland. Surely thats the path over next few years?

Can EU people from Spain fly into Dublin, get up to Belfast and then jump on a plane or boat into mainland UK without passport control?

Just so they could honour a referendum?

From what I can gather NI still leaves the EU and Customs Union and as such remains unified with the rest of the UK however there are concessions with regards to the single market.
 
Can someone explain to me as if I were 7 years old, what BJ's Ireland plan is?

If people or goods enter Ireland at Dublin, Cork or Limerick, and then head North, at what point will they have to show ID and papers?

If they want to enter mainland UK, at what point will people and goods face a UK or passport customs control?

Once Brexit is achieved and new trade deals are in place, will N.Ireland trade on UK terms or EU terms? Ditto, R.O.Ireland?

I'm very confused!

BJ's plan is complete nonsense. No-one can explain it because it makes no sense.
As regards the passport control, BJ basically expects Ireland to be the UK's border control to the rest of Europe/World.
Minimum of NI in the CU/SM as it has always been and always will be to avoid a hard border.

Edit: In other words it's intended for No Deal.
 
BJ's plan is complete nonsense. No-one can explain it because it makes no sense.
As regards the passport control, BJ basically expects Ireland to be the UK's border control to the rest of Europe/World.
Minimum of NI in the CU/SM as it has always been and always will be to avoid a hard border.

Edit: In other words it's intended for No Deal.

I'm not sure it doesn't make any sense.

The news coming from the EU is they are looking at it and it seems both the DUP and a number of Labour MPs are behind it.

It's still alot of fantasy but it perhaps has more merit than the May deal. The question is if the EU will consider it although I accept it's unlikely.
 
BJ

"If Parliament was a reality TV show, the whole lot of us would have been voted out of the jungle by now. But at least we'd have had the consolation of watching the Speaker being forced to eat a kangaroo testicle."
 
Just sounds very convoluted and reliant on that good old non-existent technology again.

The proposal would require customs checks somewhere. An argument EU and Ireland have previously rejected. Does this also mean NI is not part of the UK and will stay part of the EU in some sense? Will Scotland not ask for a similar deal?

I'm confused. It's just a gimmick to blame the EU.

From what I can gather NI still leaves the EU and Customs Union and as such remains unified with the rest of the UK however there are concessions with regards to the single market.

BJ's plan is complete nonsense. No-one can explain it because it makes no sense.
As regards the passport control, BJ basically expects Ireland to be the UK's border control to the rest of Europe/World.
Minimum of NI in the CU/SM as it has always been and always will be to avoid a hard border.

Edit: In other words it's intended for No Deal.

So four knowledgable posters cant agree a simple explanation that a 7 year old would understand and often contradict each other. Thought so!
@owlo @sun_tzu can you help? remember, explain to a 7 year old!

Its obvious this is all a massive fudge and scam, which will quickly come apart with many unthought consequences immediately after UK performs Brexit. But I'm guessing BJ's bet is that he will have delivered 'the will of the people' and be forgiven for the collateral damage.

Why aren't media doing a better job of explaining this to average joe's? I feel everything gets lost in 'Westminster village' language, as most of the country has no idea what the difference is between common market, single market, customs union, backstop and all the other jargon!
 
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Imagine if postman pat still had to align to EU rules but when he crossed the border for deliveries he had to drive a little further before being custom checked elsewhere.

Now imagine the DUP (booo) say we don't want that any more. A hard border goes up and postman pat gets caught in the cross fire of a terrorist attack. Postman pat is dead.
 
Imagine if postman pat still had to align to EU rules but when he crossed the border for deliveries he had to drive a little further before being custom checked elsewhere.

Now imagine the DUP (booo) say we don't want that any more. A hard border goes up and postman pat gets caught in the cross fire of a terrorist attack. Postman pat is dead.
:lol::lol:

What a story Mark
 
Let me tell you a real story about what happens at NI hard borders

A Catholic, Patrick Gillespie, 42, who lived in the Shantallow area of Derry and worked as a cook at the Fort George British Army base in the city, had been warned to stop working at the base or risk reprisal. On one occasion, the IRA had forced him to drive a bomb into the base, giving him just enough time to escape. However, that bomb had failed to detonate.On 24 October 1990, members of the IRA's Derry City Brigade took over Gillespie's house. While his family was held at gunpoint, he was forced to drive his car to a rural spot on the other side of the Irish border in County Donegal.Gillespie was then put in a van loaded with 1,000 pounds (450 kg) of explosives, chained to the seat to prevent his escape and told to drive to the Coshquin permanent border checkpoint on Buncrana Road.

An armed IRA team followed him by car to ensure that he obeyed their commands.Four minutes from the checkpoint, the IRA team armed the bomb remotely. When Gillespie reached the checkpoint, at 3:55 AM, he tried to get out and warn the soldiers, but the bomb detonated when he attempted to open the door. IRA bomb makers had installed a detonation device linked to the van's courtesy light, which came on whenever the van door opened. As a safeguard, the bombers also used a timing device to ensure that the bomb detonated at the right moment. Gillespie and five soldiers were killed, including Kingsman Stephen Beacham, Vincent Scott, David Sweeney, Paul Worrall and Lance Corporal Stephen Burrows, from D (Support) Company of the 1st Battalion the King’s Regiment.

Witnesses reported hearing "shouting, screaming and then shots" right before the explosion. The bomb devastated the base, destroying the operations room and a number of armoured vehicles. It was claimed that the death toll would have been much higher had the soldiers not been sleeping in a recently-built mortar-proof bunker. The blast damaged 25 nearby houses.
 
Let me tell you a real story about what happens at NI hard borders

A Catholic, Patrick Gillespie, 42, who lived in the Shantallow area of Derry and worked as a cook at the Fort George British Army base in the city, had been warned to stop working at the base or risk reprisal. On one occasion, the IRA had forced him to drive a bomb into the base, giving him just enough time to escape. However, that bomb had failed to detonate.On 24 October 1990, members of the IRA's Derry City Brigade took over Gillespie's house. While his family was held at gunpoint, he was forced to drive his car to a rural spot on the other side of the Irish border in County Donegal.Gillespie was then put in a van loaded with 1,000 pounds (450 kg) of explosives, chained to the seat to prevent his escape and told to drive to the Coshquin permanent border checkpoint on Buncrana Road.

An armed IRA team followed him by car to ensure that he obeyed their commands.Four minutes from the checkpoint, the IRA team armed the bomb remotely. When Gillespie reached the checkpoint, at 3:55 AM, he tried to get out and warn the soldiers, but the bomb detonated when he attempted to open the door. IRA bomb makers had installed a detonation device linked to the van's courtesy light, which came on whenever the van door opened. As a safeguard, the bombers also used a timing device to ensure that the bomb detonated at the right moment. Gillespie and five soldiers were killed, including Kingsman Stephen Beacham, Vincent Scott, David Sweeney, Paul Worrall and Lance Corporal Stephen Burrows, from D (Support) Company of the 1st Battalion the King’s Regiment.

Witnesses reported hearing "shouting, screaming and then shots" right before the explosion. The bomb devastated the base, destroying the operations room and a number of armoured vehicles. It was claimed that the death toll would have been much higher had the soldiers not been sleeping in a recently-built mortar-proof bunker. The blast damaged 25 nearby houses.
I do wonder just how badly and quickly things might escalate ... I hope that after years of peace people might value that so highly that we didn't see a return to the kind of incident you describe but I think there is a very real possibility that we do see something and I'm genuinely not sure how it would play out as we have seen a real change since the good Friday agreement in the range of terrorist attacks (tube bombs, 911, mass shootings/stabbings, suicide vests etc) that there it's hard to know if it would be limited to targeted attacks on military or if civilian attacks would still generally come with a warning?
Equally it's hard to know what the kind of responces would be... As seen in the middle east we generally seem to take the view that a bit of collateral damage (ie blowing up people and things in the area is a price worth paying for taking out a terrorist target with drones / cruise missiles)... I'm sure there would be pressures to respond in kind in Ireland which would of course take things into pretty much uncharted levels.
Funding and ties to the us might be treated pretty different now as well because in theory once designated as terrorist organisation there is now much stricter protocols etc
And of course who knows what the fek trump might do.
Surely the sensible thing is to say what we have now seems to be working and find a compromise that facilitates that
 
How likely is it that stuff like this will happen again?
The public have no stomach for it but all it takes is for a border guard to get a bit heavy handed.

If it does kick off again it will be people who never wanted peace and new younger more extreme recruits

Politicians really shouldn’t make light of the border issue. I think a load of people have become too lax
 
They did well to transform hard fallout brexit with calling it clean brexit as if that is something to aspire to...