Brexited | the worst threads live the longest
- Thread starter Silva
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He should have been mischievous and proposed the sixth: The UK decides to join Ireland and centralise under Irish rule.
Is there any feeling at all in Ireland that they might be overplaying their hand? Or is everyone firmly behind the government’s stance, without criticism?
Unfortunately the whole problem is around NI, all points to us. 2 out comes both will be as equally disliked and opposed to,
1. Hard border in Ireland and direct rule from Westminster
2. Border Poll and an UI
There are a hell of a lot of problems with our current government, and Varadkar is a prick, but their stance on Brexit has been spot on. No real complaints from anyone here about it.
We're not overplaying our hand, we've said all along that we won't accept anything that will compromise the GFA and any solution has to involve doing that.
Everyone here talks about their exports to the EU and seem to forget about their exports to the UK, on a local radio station this morning there was a farmer and a cheese maker going on about the boarder and how it will effect 20-30% of their exports. The report asked them both where the rest goes, there was a long pause and they both said Great Britian, they huffed and puffed after it but their argument quickly melted away.
And Ireland leaving the EU and joining the UK customs territory, just for completeness.
But you know that's clearly impossible, and leads to a UI which Varadkar seems strangely coy about.
Or that Ireland leaves the EU too. There is the GFA, common travel area and from day one, alignment of regs ect. They would would have to go back to the Punt though.
Would there be be much support for a move like that?
Nobody here is under any illusions about how much a no deal Brexit will feck our economy up, including exports to NI.
Our stance is simple, we don't want Brexit because we know it will probably plunge us into recession. But if it does happen, the GFA has to be protected, everything else is secondary to us.
What are you on about? It's not impossible at all, unless you think the only possible outcome is no deal?
But the GFA is compromised by a no-deal Brexit by definition. There needs to be a deal or Ireland will have to implement a trade border.
I guess from an Irish perspective it depends if you think the UK government are bluffing, or that they will blink first in the event of a no-deal brexit.
Joint involvement in 3rd party trade deals
What can we do though?
You either don't have a border (GFA stays), or you have a border (GFA f*cked). Under everything the UK have suggested so far, there's a border. In the backstop, there isn't a border, so we agreed to that.
So what compromise can they possibly make?
There’s different shades of border and associated checks and controls though... it isn’t completely binary.
Sorry Mike.. but it is, if you think that's the case then you don't really understand the GFA and what the troubles were.
Its clear what BOJo wants to do. He's just doing some window dressing for the 31st. Looking conciliatory and yet tough with this take it or leave it approach is purely being played for his base and the upcoming election.
No one in business would ever negotiate like this unless he was living in North Korea.
MikeupNorth with very brexiter like arguments here.
I'm on about Boris clearly wants a no deal brexit. As you say if that's happens the GFA is fecked and most likely we go back to DR which I doubt anyone here wants.
If you're aware of something that will provide adequate border controls without any weaknesses or infrastructure you could be a very rich man.
I still don't understand how you can have a no deal Brexit and maintain the Good Friday Agreement?
As distressing as it is this, if NI is still in the UK and there is no deal there has to be checks. Whether that be at the border, at the factory, at the ports, 10 miles either side of the border it still means there is a hard border and trade is restricted, and breaks the GFA.
You can't, the sooner the people dealing with the negotiations realise it the quicker it will be sorted.
EDIT: It will probably force a boarder poll, which is the end game anyway for the GFA, I wish people would just be honest about it and start preparation for what any UI looks like if/when it does come. Without this planning it will be a disaster for all involved.
But no deal is on the Brits though. No Irish government will ever agree to a border in Ireland, there is no blinking here
The only way to preserve the GFA is for NI to stay in both the CU and SM, that's it, it's that simple. You take one away and the GFA is compromised. Forget these silly techy border controls that haven't been invented yet.
Its why Boris is putting forward ideas for the EU to reject, trying to make himself the good guy.
One can only assume he proposed this so he could say he proposed something. I can't see it being rejected out of hand by the EU, instead I think they'll 'revise' it to the point where it's essentially May's deal again. Johnson can then try to sell that as his, try to force no deal or give the next bullingdon boy a shot.
Yep. Assuming that the UK govt wants Brexit AND wants to honour their responsibilities under the GFA, the only question they need to consider is: do we want a NI only backstop or a UK wide one. That is it. There is no third way.
I'm genuinely baffled as to how they haven't gone for this approach now. The whole blocker was the DUP but they're basically irrelevant again now that the Tories have lost the majority.
I’m fascinated to see how the Irish government manages its relationship with the EU in the event of a no-deal brexit then. The EU will insist on a border and Ireland is going to refuse to implement it?
Nope.
Well I’m completely confused by the logic of the argument then. So Ireland will agree to some form of a border in Ireland, but only at the request of the EU not the British? Have I got that right?
Apparently we'll fight that too.
Agreeing to put up infrastructure as part of a legal agreement and enforcing a temporary border as a result of no deal are not the same thing.
Yes of course... but what about if it was the whole of Ireland, a single united country that stands alongside, England, Scotland and Wales, all with independent Parliaments in effect ? Might have some takers, but not enough I would suggest... too much history!
You know the British government will point to any measures Ireland/EU come up with to minimise a border in a no-deal scenario as forming the basis of future plans to avoid a hard border in a deal right?
You'll be long gone by then. You can point to the moon for all we care?
Look at the mess we've created isn't a great thing all the same
Yes, of course. The EU is far more important to us than the UK, we would never compromise any part of our membership because of the UK, who are the ones who voted to leave without giving a shit about our island.
But you'd risk the rise of terrorist activity for the single market?
What fecking choice do we have? Leave the EU?
Unlike half the UK we're not ignorant self-righteous cnuts and we actually appreciate the benefits of the EU, so no thanks.