Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


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A decent thread to read from Foster who seems well connected in all this. The take away is that Boris and No 10 are spinning minor discussions (not negotiations) as progress and overstating the strength of their positions.

Also irish sea border is back hidden amongst all this waffle.


Confirmation he is also lying about “progress” in Brussels.
 
But why? Why does anyone still vote for the Tories in the UK?

There's a few legitimate reason to vote Tory to be fair, lower your own taxes (especially inheritance tax) and if you're elderly they'll give you election bribes plus the IHT thing again.

The rest are just individualistic fools who think voting Tory makes them aspirational or people who don't really follow politics being conned by the campaign lies.
 
I’m sure I’m neither the first nor the last person to ask this but.... Since the backstop is the insurance policy which keeps NI in the single market in case the UK decides to leave it without other solutions for the border in place (and therefore it’s more of a sovereignty and self-determination issue for NI), wouldn’t it make sense to ask the Northern Irish themselves if they are OK with backstop? As in, with a referendum.

For all we know the Northern Irish people might actually be grand (as a majority) with staying in the Single Market full stop. If so then spin the backstop off as a separate law and get it signed with the EU first which solves the Ireland border issue, then put the WAB to Parliament without the already signed backstop, get it fecking signed and we can start the discussion about what relationship with the EU we do want.

For all we know once Brexit happens and with another 3-5 year horizon until Parliament decides what it wants, mood might have softened and majority opinion might be for staying in the single market. Making the backstop redundant. And if not so be it. Get FTAs signed to the extend that it’s possible with all our existing trade partners, put all the required legal and physical infrastructure in place and then leave the Single Market in an orderly fashion.

Anyhow, feck Boris.
 
There's a few legitimate reason to vote Tory to be fair, lower your own taxes (especially inheritance tax) and if you're elderly they'll give you election bribes plus the IHT thing again.

The rest are just individualistic fools who think voting Tory makes them aspirational or people who don't really follow politics being conned by the campaign lies.

Bearing in mind the median age of the UK population just moved past 40 (and will continue moving upwards in the future) then the Tories will be getting a shit-load of votes for the forseeable future.
 
There's a few legitimate reason to vote Tory to be fair, lower your own taxes (especially inheritance tax) and if you're elderly they'll give you election bribes plus the IHT thing again.

The rest are just individualistic fools who think voting Tory makes them aspirational or people who don't really follow politics being conned by the campaign lies.

Notwithstanding brexit, there's loads of good reasons to vote tory if you're that way politically inclined.

Less welfare state, tougher on crime, hardline on immigration, tougher on minority freedoms, more bellicose in foreign affairs to name just a few.
 
Bearing in mind the median age of the UK population just moved past 40 (and will continue moving upwards in the future) then the Tories will be getting a shit-load of votes for the forseeable future.

No, the tory vote age is also shifting upwards, signalling that the 'new 40's' are not interested in what they have to sell.

That said, they'll always be more popular with old people as they are about 'protecting what you have, and preventing the masses getting a hold of it'
 
Interesting thread about the lengths Johnson's team are rumored to be going to obscure their reason for proroguing parliament including asking staff to lie in affidavits, falsifying notes and using burner phones.

 
No, the tory vote age is also shifting upwards, signalling that the 'new 40's' are not interested in what they have to sell.

That said, they'll always be more popular with old people as they are about 'protecting what you have, and preventing the masses getting a hold of it'

Exactly. And the number of old people will continue to get higher and higher. It used to be the case that the only thing stopping young people dominating the vote was their own inertia. But we’re fast heading towards a future where even if every one of them votes they will still be out-numbered.
 
Given that we've just seen parliament move to block no deal, surely there was nothing at all disingenuous about Remain warning people of the danger of a Leave vote see us abandon the customs union?

Remain campaigned hard about the risks of leaving the EU, and were brushed away as fear mongering, while Leave promised the world. Since the result, all of Leave's promises have long been forgotten, and instead we're being told reassuring things like, "we should probably have just about enough food to not starve," and, "we've got a stockpile of body bags to cope with an increased mortality rate," while pretty much every risk we were warned about from Remain has been proven real.

And yet we've still got people trotting out, "well, both sides said things..."

It's bollocks.

Claiming that a leave vote could entail us leaving the customs union and asserting that it will are two different positions so I fail to see what your objection is to me characterising them as such - especially since Osborne was touting EEA membership as a possible option almost as soon as the result was announced. Regardless my claim isn't that the Remain camp was being disingenuous it's that overall the Brexit campaign presented an inconsistent and unclear picture of what leave actually entailed. The person being disingenuous is the one looking back now and claiming that the picture was crystal clear and that leave voters were of a single unified voice.
 
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Was about the post that. The Sun playing both sides . It's all a joke to them.
 
No, the tory vote age is also shifting upwards, signalling that the 'new 40's' are not interested in what they have to sell.

That said, they'll always be more popular with old people as they are about 'protecting what you have, and preventing the masses getting a hold of it'

Which makes sense given we tend to now start on the housing ladder later and the recession stalled people's earnings.
 
Claiming that a leave vote could entail us leaving the customs union and asserting that it will are two different positions so I fail to see what your objection is to me characterising it as such - especially since Osborne was touting EEA membership as a possible option almost as soon as the result was announced. Regardless my claim isn't that the Remain camp was being disingenuous it's that overall the Brexit campaign presented an inconsistent and unclear picture of what leave actually entailed. The person being disingenuous is the one looking back now and claiming that the picture was crystal clear and that leave voters were of a single unified voice.

I don't think anyone has claimed that Leave voters were of a single, unified voice. That much is abundantly clear, and is a point made increasingly evident with each passing day as we lumber between no deal, rejected withdrawal agreements, and ignored calls to scrap the whole thing.

What do you mean by 'the Brexit campaign'?

Leave campaigned for Brexit based on lie after lie, and a complete fantasy. Remain campaigned against Brexit with warnings of negative consequences which were all seemingly founded in reality.

It's not at all comparable to put Remain maybe asserting something that was only a possibility (no matter how real that possibility was), and Leave literally making things up to win votes.

It wasn't the job of Remain to paint a clear picture of what Leave would entail. Remain's job was to deter people from wanting to Leave, and they attempted to do that by warning people of the possible, but extremely likely, negative effects of a Leave result.

Leave should have been the ones painting the picture of what Leave would entail, but in the three years since the result, we've gone from £350 million to the NHS per week, amazing trade deals with every country in the world while maintaining a great relationship with the EU, and closed door to unwanted immigrants, blue passports(!), and most importantly, absolutely not leaving without a deal, to stockpiling body bags for an increased mortality rate, hopefully having enough food, becoming only the third country (alongside Algeria and Serbia) to trade solely on WTO terms, increased immigration from non-EU countries, and a 'strong and stable' government with no control over parliament and no ability, or apparently inclination, to actually try and get any sort of deal done.

But yeah, Remain saying something "will" happen when really they should have said it "might" happen is just as bad.
 
But why? Why does anyone still vote for the Tories in the UK?

The forthcoming GE will solve nothing except most likely causing even more chaos and division.
Whoever wins it, assuming even that there is a clear winner still has to find a way of breaking the current log jam.
While I have not been in favour of it, a second referendum is now the only way to resolve it.
Quite obvious parliament had and is unlikely to find a way of leaving the EU with an acceptable WA, unless the version of the WA resulting from the joint TM and Labour discussions is now accepted.
If that fails then we need to use the time between now and the end of January to hold the second referendum and come to a decision on how to or whether to leave the EU.
 
I don't think anyone has claimed that Leave voters were of a single, unified voice. That much is abundantly clear, and is a point made increasingly evident with each passing day as we lumber between no deal, rejected withdrawal agreements, and ignored calls to scrap the whole thing.

What do you mean by 'the Brexit campaign'?

Leave campaigned for Brexit based on lie after lie, and a complete fantasy. Remain campaigned against Brexit with warnings of negative consequences which were all seemingly founded in reality.

It's not at all comparable to put Remain maybe asserting something that was only a possibility (no matter how real that possibility was), and Leave literally making things up to win votes.

It wasn't the job of Remain to paint a clear picture of what Leave would entail. Remain's job was to deter people from wanting to Leave, and they attempted to do that by warning people of the possible, but extremely likely, negative effects of a Leave result.

Leave should have been the ones painting the picture of what Leave would entail, but in the three years since the result, we've gone from £350 million to the NHS per week, amazing trade deals with every country in the world while maintaining a great relationship with the EU, and closed door to unwanted immigrants, blue passports(!), and most importantly, absolutely not leaving without a deal, to stockpiling body bags for an increased mortality rate, hopefully having enough food, becoming only the third country (alongside Algeria and Serbia) to trade solely on WTO terms, increased immigration from non-EU countries, and a 'strong and stable' government with no control over parliament and no ability, or apparently inclination, to actually try and get any sort of deal done.

But yeah, Remain saying something "will" happen when really they should have said it "might" happen is just as bad.

Completely agree with you Alex.
A good summary.
 
And of course the other twats pile on...

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I don't think anyone has claimed that Leave voters were of a single, unified voice. That much is abundantly clear, and is a point made increasingly evident with each passing day as we lumber between no deal, rejected withdrawal agreements, and ignored calls to scrap the whole thing.

What do you mean by 'the Brexit campaign'?

Leave campaigned for Brexit based on lie after lie, and a complete fantasy. Remain campaigned against Brexit with warnings of negative consequences which were all seemingly founded in reality.

It's not at all comparable to put Remain maybe asserting something that was only a possibility (no matter how real that possibility was), and Leave literally making things up to win votes.

It wasn't the job of Remain to paint a clear picture of what Leave would entail. Remain's job was to deter people from wanting to Leave, and they attempted to do that by warning people of the possible, but extremely likely, negative effects of a Leave result.

Leave should have been the ones painting the picture of what Leave would entail, but in the three years since the result, we've gone from £350 million to the NHS per week, amazing trade deals with every country in the world while maintaining a great relationship with the EU, and closed door to unwanted immigrants, blue passports(!), and most importantly, absolutely not leaving without a deal, to stockpiling body bags for an increased mortality rate, hopefully having enough food, becoming only the third country (alongside Algeria and Serbia) to trade solely on WTO terms, increased immigration from non-EU countries, and a 'strong and stable' government with no control over parliament and no ability, or apparently inclination, to actually try and get any sort of deal done.

But yeah, Remain saying something "will" happen when really they should have said it "might" happen is just as bad.

Neither of these countries trade solely on WTO terms, in fact Algeria aren't even members of WTO.
 
in a sane world the press should be mandated to be impartial. journalism is disgusting these days. thankfully younger people aren't getting their news from shit newspapers anymore.
 
'First he blocked May's deal' - erm so did Johnson and his cronies.

I think they're totally misreading the mood of the country btw. Nobody wants to vote again. People are sick to the back teeth of it.
 
Neither of these countries trade solely on WTO terms, in fact Algeria aren't even members of WTO.

Should have fact checked Ken Clarke on that one. Still only a handful of countries trading solely on WTO terms, none of which are economic superpowers, and there are barely any that trade directly with the EU on WTO terms either.
 
But why? Why does anyone still vote for the Tories in the UK?

A large part of British society are greedy. They want to keep the wealth they've aquired, regardless of the social impact of hoarding that wealth. Then there are the idiots who don't have any wealth yet, but assume they will soon, so vote Tory to protect the wealth they don't have; resulting in an economic setup where it's ever less likely that they can actually aquire wealth.

No, the tory vote age is also shifting upwards, signalling that the 'new 40's' are not interested in what they have to sell.

That said, they'll always be more popular with old people as they are about 'protecting what you have, and preventing the masses getting a hold of it'

Agree.

Exactly. And the number of old people will continue to get higher and higher. It used to be the case that the only thing stopping young people dominating the vote was their own inertia. But we’re fast heading towards a future where even if every one of them votes they will still be out-numbered.

The thing is, as the number of old people will increase, the wealth they have won't increase. People of my dads generation bought houses for a few thousand pounds, they only had to work a few years to pay off those mortgages. If you're hitting 40 today your first house probably cost you £150,000 and will take you 20 years to pay off. By the time these people get old they won't have as much wealth. They'll need a government and a society setup to provide adequete care for them.
 
I don't think anyone has claimed that Leave voters were of a single, unified voice. That much is abundantly clear, and is a point made increasingly evident with each passing day as we lumber between no deal, rejected withdrawal agreements, and ignored calls to scrap the whole thing.

WenslyMU seemed to be claiming that a vote for leave explicitly provided a mandate for a no-deal Brexit. This implies that all leave voters were of one mind in understanding and accepting that this is what their vote entailed. It was this characterisation I was objecting to.

What do you mean by 'the Brexit campaign'?

I mean that on voting day, after listening to both sides of the argument nobody could honestly claim that everyone was clear as to what a vote to leave precisely meant.

Leave campaigned for Brexit based on lie after lie, and a complete fantasy. Remain campaigned against Brexit with warnings of negative consequences which were all seemingly founded in reality.

It's not at all comparable to put Remain maybe asserting something that was only a possibility (no matter how real that possibility was), and Leave literally making things up to win votes.

It wasn't the job of Remain to paint a clear picture of what Leave would entail. Remain's job was to deter people from wanting to Leave, and they attempted to do that by warning people of the possible, but extremely likely, negative effects of a Leave result.

Leave should have been the ones painting the picture of what Leave would entail, but in the three years since the result, we've gone from £350 million to the NHS per week, amazing trade deals with every country in the world while maintaining a great relationship with the EU, and closed door to unwanted immigrants, blue passports(!), and most importantly, absolutely not leaving without a deal, to stockpiling body bags for an increased mortality rate, hopefully having enough food, becoming only the third country (alongside Algeria and Serbia) to trade solely on WTO terms, increased immigration from non-EU countries, and a 'strong and stable' government with no control over parliament and no ability, or apparently inclination, to actually try and get any sort of deal done.

But yeah, Remain saying something "will" happen when really they should have said it "might" happen is just as bad.

As far as I can work out you are completely misconstruing what I have to say. I agree with almost everything you wrote. Of course the Leave side of the Brexit campaign was total bollocks, endlessly dishonest and deserves the vast bulk of the criticism. Of course it's not the job of the Remain camp to clarify things for them. That does not mean that the role of the Remain campaign should be completely ignored - especially as the subject I was addressing was WenslyMU deriving clarity of meaning for what 'leave' meant from a single sentence uttered by Cameron. He can't derive that clarity because even if he cedes to the Remain camp the authority to define what 'leave' meant the remain camp was also inconsistent. In claiming that the EEA was both on the table (Osbourne) and off the table (Cameron) the remain campaign also played a role in obfuscating the meaning of what a vote to leave entailed. The sum total of the claims and counterclaims was one of confusion not clarity is my point - though I'm clearly not doing a good job of expressing it.
 
Should have fact checked Ken Clarke on that one. Still only a handful of countries trading solely on WTO terms, none of which are economic superpowers, and there are barely any that trade directly with the EU on WTO terms either.

From memory, only Mauritania solely trades at best on WTO terms. All the other countries have bilateral agreements regarding customs, free trade or both. Serbia and Algeria are simply examples of countries that aren't WTO members.
 
From memory, only Mauritania solely trades at best on WTO terms. All the other countries have bilateral agreements regarding customs, free trade or both. Serbia and Algeria are simply examples of countries that aren't WTO members.

I had a google and some bloke had about 6 countries on there after fact checking, but said it's difficult to make a definitive list. Couldn't be arsed cross referencing it with the list of WTO members but Mauritania was one of them, I think, as was Serbia, but no Algeria.
 
I had a google and some bloke had about 6 countries on there after fact checking, but said it's difficult to make a definitive list. Couldn't be arsed cross referencing it with the list of WTO members but Mauritania was one of them, I think, as was Serbia, but no Algeria.

Serbia are members of CEFTA and Algeria are members of the pan-euro-med zone and AMU. I saw the list but they all clearly have agreements at the exception of Mauritania.
 
If Johnson cant get his election vote through before he prorouges I think the conservative conference is going to be a tough old battle for him... not sure its going to be able to keep cummings in a role given he seems to be the focus of most of the anger of "the purge"
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...er-at-cummings-role-in-purge-of-brexit-rebels



I think they'll let them back in, those who want to anyway. He'll end up praised for it too, straight out of the Trump play book.
 


In happier times...

...we need to elect someone who is a natural unifier, and consensus builder, a fully paid-up member of the human race, who doesn’t just spout the rhetoric of One Nation, but lives and breathes an approach to politics that is warm, generous, open and inclusive.

[...]

we should elect Boris Johnson as our next leader and Prime Minister. I have worked closely with Johnson as his chief of staff when he was first elected Mayor of London. We have had well-advertised differences in the past. But he is a modern, liberal Tory, who won two elections in a city that is naturally Labour, who has grown immensely in stature and maturity in his eight years as Mayor, and who will lead the country with the same humanity and sense of fairness that he brought to the leadership of our capital city.

https://www.conservativehome.com/pl...n-should-be-the-next-conservative-leader.html
 
If Johnson cant get his election vote through before he prorouges I think the conservative conference is going to be a tough old battle for him... not sure its going to be able to keep cummings in a role given he seems to be the focus of most of the anger of "the purge"
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...er-at-cummings-role-in-purge-of-brexit-rebels



Well you know what they say. What goes around comes around.
Or more clearly - think before you act so stupidly.
 
Well you know what they say. What goes around comes around.
Or more clearly - think before you act so stupidly.
actually somebody send me a link to Dominic Cummings essay on education...

its refered on his wiki page as follows
Cummings wrote an essay titled: "Some thoughts on education and political priorities",[11] about transforming Britain into a "meritocratic technopolis";[5] the essay was described by Guardian journalist Patrick Wintour as "either mad, bad or brilliant – and probably a bit of all three
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dominic_Cummings

A full link to the essay is here

https://dominiccummings.files.wordp...-and-political-priorities-version-2-final.pdf

The first paragraph has a beautiful sense of schadenfreude in the way he thought he could boot out people like ken clarke and make parliament give him the election on the terms he wanted

Although we understand some systems well enough to make precise or statistical predictions, most interesting systems - whether physical, mental, cultural, or virtual - are complex, nonlinear, and have properties that emerge from feedback between many interactions. Exhaustive searches of all possibilities are impossible. Unfathomable and unintended consequences dominate. Problems cascade. Complex systems are hard to understand, predict and control.

Turns out he was right about complex systems and unintended consequences