Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

[Wibble]

No, please, no more referendums, if we are staying in then the current parliament has to have the guts to revoke A50, that is the only way to stop a No Deal.

A new referendum would take ages to agree the question to be put, which despite talk of various options for the question to have any validity over the first referendum it would still have to be binary, i.e. Remain or Leave and in the meantime the government of this country will be 'all at sea', it has to end now. Parliament whilst it has the whip hand has to vote to revoke A50, its the last chance. Despite hopes that extensions might allow for a new referendum it also allows for a GE, Parliament cant keep Boris in office but not in power indefinitely, as the damage to the Government and economy would be ten times worse than a No Deal Brexit. After a relative short period of time the further real (not project fear) chaos caused will be firmly placed on Parliaments shoulders, and whenever the GE comes they will be slaughtered by a revised and renewed Brexit front, with the (albeit rump but sizeable) Conservative party deployed in formation with Brexit Party candidates across those areas where they can win.

Parliament has manoeuvred to get a foothold on power, but its a tenuous one, it has to act decisive and revoke A50 otherwise all is lost, any further extension leads to No Deal...eventually!

I can't see A50 being revoked without another referendum no matter how much I hate them.

 

[Wibble]

its one option but the counter arguments would be... we have already had q1 so lets go straight to q2

and who is going to propose mays deal as q2?... not the conservatives (who want a harder deal)... and not labour (who want a softer deal)

Im pretty certain that calling something "Mays deal" would not pass the scrutiny of the electoral commission

as I say its going to have a lot of legal challenges as there is probably 20 different options available and 95% of people will disagree with 95% of them (format , options etc) - without all the legal arguments over wordings etc... it will take at least 6 months to run a referndum (by law - the period to pass the legistlation, the period for the question to be agreed, official campaigns designated then the run up period) - add in legal challanges and I wouldnt be surprised to see it take a year (and if somebody wanted to negotiate a new deal to put on the referendum... make that 2 years or more)

You might as well say we aleady voted in in 1975.

May's deal or a close facimilie is all there is.

And we should request a 2 year delay to get our shit together and hope the EU doesn't just want shot of us.

 

[Siorac]

Exactly. And the number of old people will continue to get higher and higher. It used to be the case that the only thing stopping young people dominating the vote was their own inertia. But we’re fast heading towards a future where even if every one of them votes they will still be out-numbered.

That assumes that as people get older, they will become more and more likely to vote Tory. As far as I'm aware, generally political opinions are crystallised much earlier in life - it's not that old people are necessarily more conservative, it's that the currently old people are more conservative.

 

[Simbo]

from BBC: "Jacob Rees-Mogg also confirmed Parliament would not be suspended - or prorogued - until the bill to block a no-deal Brexit has been passed into law".

Anyone see that? Bet that was like pulling teeth and then some.

 

[sun_tzu]

You might as well say we aleady voted in in 1975.

May's deal or a close facimilie is all there is.

And we should request a 2 year delay to get our shit together and hope the EU doesn't just want shot of us.

you would hope that we wouldnt just fanny around for a couple of years this time with bluster and bullshit - but I have my doubts we would have learned our lesson

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Worth a watch

Interesting, thanks. Yer man talks a lot of sense (I've only listened to the first guest so far i.e. first 30 minutes). For anyone else put off by shitty camera and chaotic opening, stick with it. It's well worth a listen (but definitely not worth a watch!)

Someone else I recently listened to on a similar topic is this bloke. His outlook for the future is a bit more nihilistic though. An interesting dude, all the same. He's also very coherent/clear in the way he talks (unlike his interviewer)`I should really read his book. I won't though. All I'm fit for these days, in terms of learning, is listening to podcasts and pissing about on here.

That assumes that as people get older, they will become more and more likely to vote Tory. As far as I'm aware, generally political opinions are crystallised much earlier in life - it's not that old people are necessarily more conservative, it's that the currently old people are more conservative.

I'm not sure. I've definitely moved to the right, politically, as I've aged. I would have been a hardcore leftie in my University days, I don't think anyone on here would think I fit that description any more! And I'm only just past the UK median age.

 

[Siorac]

I'm not sure. I've definitely moved to the right, politically, as I've aged. I would have been a hardcore leftie in my University days, I don't think anyone on here would think I fit that description any more! And I'm only just past the UK median age.

You still wouldn't vote for the Tories in the UK, would you? Most of those who identify as lefties in their 20s are unlikely to become voters for a right-wing party as they get older, even if their stance on certain issues shifts somewhat.

 

[Wibble]

you would hope that we wouldnt just fanny around for a couple of years this time with bluster and bullshit - but I have my doubts we would have learned our lesson

There is that.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

You still wouldn't vote for the Tories in the UK, would you? Most of those who identify as lefties in their 20s are unlikely to become voters for a right-wing party as they get older, even if their stance on certain issues shifts somewhat.

Not the Tories, no. But I'm definitely a centrist dad. In the current Brexit climate, if I was still in the UK I'd be voting Lib Dem.

Even without Brexit it wouldn't take a lot for me to jump ship to them from Labour.

 

[Djemba-Djemba]

Do people still think the last few days are some sort of grand plan by Boris to secretly get what he wants?

He's getting humiliated at an hourly rate.

 

[NotoriousISSY]

Disappointing title. JoJo abandons BoJo surely?

 

[SteveJ]

Do people still think the last few days are some sort of grand plan by Boris to secretly get what he wants?

He's getting humiliated at an hourly rate.

4D chess.

He cares little about being humiliated, so long as he eventually gets his result; the mark of a ruthless, uncaring blight on society...or, in today's wretched language, a 'winner'.

 

[Wibble]

I'm not sure. I've definitely moved to the right, politically, as I've aged. I would have been a hardcore leftie in my University days, I don't think anyone on here would think I fit that description any more! And I'm only just past the UK median age.

My wife and I have moved progressively left over the last 35 years. Right wing politics has been a disaster for the world.

 

[C3Pique]

If Johnson cant get his election vote through before he prorouges I think the conservative conference is going to be a tough old battle for him... not sure its going to be able to keep cummings in a role given he seems to be the focus of most of the anger of "the purge"
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...er-at-cummings-role-in-purge-of-brexit-rebels

Aah, my old MP. Seems a bit late to have grown a spine, last time I interacted with him he was parroting the 'no deal is better than a bad deal' bollocks. Maybe he's just realised all the farmers in his constituency will go to the wall in a no deal, something I pointed out to him a couple of years ago, and is shitting it.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

My wife and I have moved progressively left over the last 35 years. Right wing politics has been a disaster for the world.

I don't think it's that simple. You could certainly argue that neoliberalism might have fecked the world. Although I don't think you can say it arose due to "right wing politics". I would argue that populist politics is and will be the biggest disaster. And that includes both ends of the political spectrum.

 

[owlo]

I don't think it's that simple. You could certainly argue that neoliberalism might have fecked the world. Although I don't think you can say it arose due to "right wing politics". I would argue that populist politics is and will be the biggest disaster. And that includes both ends of the political spectrum.

Sounds like you've read a few of the same economics books as I have.

 

[sun_tzu]

Do people still think the last few days are some sort of grand plan by Boris to secretly get what he wants?

He's getting humiliated at an hourly rate.

I dont think its as bad for him as some are making out... he always wanted to make it a people vs parliament election I think and on that basis outside the westminister bubble i think a lot of the past few days will be spun as remoaner parliament blocks boris's brexit... but if he can be forced to have the election after 31st October its going to be much harder to fight as farrage has indicated that any delay to 31st October and Brexit party will fight every seat (of course i dont particularly trust farrage so thats far from certain)

But if he cant get an election vote through before conference season i think the whole prorouged period is going to be difficult for him as it gives labour a chance to put together a more coherent brexit plan, and I think the conservative conference will be very bumpy for him ... the focus will be on our negotiations (or lack there of) with the EU and he will know that as soon as he goes back to the commons he will probably loose any vote that comes to the floor.

If on the other hand he can get parliament to vote for an election the conference's dont happen and it all becomes a campaign with the focus on that

It will come down to that ... I think if he calls a confidence motion in himself it will be very hard for labour not to vote him down - but then of course there is the risk of a GNU (Ken Clarke could be a figure enough could coalesce around I think)

Overall I think if he gets the election called before next Thrsday when parliament closes down it will have been ok for him (they will have cleared out the MP's who wont back a no deal manifesto, he can fight an election before 31st on a no deal sticking to my word about leaving ticket, he can blame parliament for scuppering his (non existant?) renegotiations and probably get the brexit party in a non aggression pact

If he cant get the election vote through he probaby has to fight the brexit party at the next election, he has to ask for an extension and break his word, and he has a bumpy conference and will ultimatley be taken down when his queens speach does not pass the house (which again would be pretty humiliating)

So its too soon to say I think ... but give it a week and we should know

 

[owlo]

I've been impressed with Corbyn the last few days, but I can't help but think if he rejigged to shadow cabinet to more moderate, he would have a better chance at smashing the election.

Yvette Cooper as home secretary and Burnham as chancellor or something would go a long way to mending bridges and cutting off the accusations of a marxist purge.

 

[Wednesday at Stoke]

I've been impressed with Corbyn the last few days, but I can't help but think if he rejigged to shadow cabinet to more moderate, he would have a better chance at smashing the election.

Yvette Cooper as home secretary and Burnham as chancellor or something would go a long way to mending bridges and cutting off the accusations of a marxist purge.

Has he or the labor apparatus put forward their vision of Brexit yet? Just saying we're not as bad as the tories is no policy to go to an election on.

 

[owlo]

I dont think its as bad for him as some are making out... he always wanted to make it a people vs parliament election I think and on that basis outside the westminister bubble i think a lot of the past few days will be spun as remoaner parliament blocks boris's brexit... but if he can be forced to have the election after 31st October its going to be much harder to fight as farrage has indicated that any delay to 31st October and Brexit party will fight every seat (of course i dont particularly trust farrage so thats far from certain

It's been an absolute train wreck few days for him. He may have wanted a people vs parliament election, but he didn't want to lose 22 mp's, have a bill pass, and have his progogation work against him. He didn't want cummings under fire, to look like a bumbling idiot in the commons, or for his brother to resign in the name of the national interest. He didn't want to have to be in a position where hes begging the leader of the opposition for an election and is unlikely to get one.

Polling has already swung hugely in the space of 2 days. It's a loaded game of Russian Roullette.

 

[owlo]

Has he or the labor apparatus put forward their vision of Brexit yet? Just saying we're not as bad as the tories is no policy to go to an election on.

Unsure. (I'm not affiliated with any party, just a fintech trader doing a bit of modelling) I imagine it'll be some sort of remain/referendum platform though. Only real option left for him.

 

[CassiusClaymore]

It's been an absolute train wreck few days for him. He may have wanted a people vs parliament election, but he didn't want to lose 22 mp's, have a bill pass, and have his progogation work against him. He didn't want cummings under fire, to look like a bumbling idiot in the commons, or for his brother to resign in the name of the national interest. He didn't want to have to be in a position where hes begging the leader of the opposition for an election and is unlikely to get one.

Polling has already swung hugely in the space of 2 days. It's a loaded game of Russian Roullette.

He probably also doesn't want to come off like Biff Tannen goading Marty McFly either but he has. Next he'll be telling him to "make like a tree..."

 

[Paul the Wolf]

My wife and I have moved progressively left over the last 35 years. Right wing politics has been a disaster for the world.

добро пожаловать в советский союз

 

[sullydnl]

You still wouldn't vote for the Tories in the UK, would you? Most of those who identify as lefties in their 20s are unlikely to become voters for a right-wing party as they get older, even if their stance on certain issues shifts somewhat.

If you have a more liberal generation growing more conservative as they age then you'd likely see a more centerist iteration of the Tory party emerge in order to survive once that cohort becomes the dominant age group. You would still have a right wing party attracting formerly left-leaning voters (something they've surely always had to do?) but it would seem like less of an extreme shift from the voters' point of view as it would feel like less of a lurch to the right.

 

[sun_tzu]

It's been an absolute train wreck few days for him. He may have wanted a people vs parliament election, but he didn't want to lose 22 mp's, have a bill pass, and have his progogation work against him. He didn't want cummings under fire, to look like a bumbling idiot in the commons, or for his brother to resign in the name of the national interest. He didn't want to have to be in a position where hes begging the leader of the opposition for an election and is unlikely to get one.

Polling has already swung hugely in the space of 2 days. It's a loaded game of Russian Roullette.

yes - but IF he gets his election vote passed before next thirsday then i think that short term pain will possibly have been a price worth paying for him as within a week or 2 of an election campaign I think that will be forgotten... if not then I think its going to linger and really hurt him... so Id give it week before judging how bad this week has been for him... as they say a week is a long time in politics

It just depends if enough of the opposition parties can resist the urge for an election long enough to bring down the government at the queens speech

 

[SalfordRed18]

Thought it was funny Johnson claiming Corbyn is insulting democracy.

 

[Siorac]

If you have a more liberal generation growing more conservative as they age then you'd likely see a more centerist iteration of the Tory party emerge in order to survive once that cohort becomes the dominant age group. You would still have a right wing party attracting formerly left-leaning voters (something they've surely always had to do?) but it would seem like less of an extreme shift from the voters' point of view as it would feel like less of a lurch to the right.

Yes, that's probably true - and it is a good thing, overall.

 

[Wednesday at Stoke]

Unsure. (I'm not affiliated with any party, just a fintech trader doing a bit of modelling) I imagine it'll be some sort of remain/referendum platform though. Only real option left for him.

If that was his platform, he would have come out with it already, he's been a lifelong euroskeptic and his base is torn between young remainers and blue collar brexiters who want more social spending. He's got more reason to be squeezed between the two than a typical tory.

 

[lynchie]

Lots has happened in the last day, and I haven't caught up with the whole thread, but... Between proroguing parliament and the thing with "accidentally" putting May's deal back to parliament - could that be a ruse for Boris to pretend he's been "forced" into putting the same deal (i.e. the only deal that's ever been realistically possible) back to the vote in hope that it might gain some support now that leaving with no deal is ruled out, at least in the short term?

 

[sun_tzu]

If that was his platform, he would have come out with it already, he's been a lifelong euroskeptic and his base is torn between young remainers and blue collar brexiters who want more social spending. He's got more reason to be squeezed between the two than a typical tory.

i think conference (if it happens) will force that position

 

[sun_tzu]

Lots has happened in the last day, and I haven't caught up with the whole thread, but... Between proroguing parliament and the thing with "accidentally" putting May's deal back to parliament - could that be a ruse for Boris to pretend he's been "forced" into putting the same deal (i.e. the only deal that's ever been realistically possible) back to the vote in hope that it might gain some support now that leaving with no deal is ruled out, at least in the short term?

I would guess - if Mays deal is put back to parliament it will be amendable ... so he could table an amendment to remove the backstop and (if that amended version passes) go back to the eu and say ive told you all along this is the only way to get a deal... but I doubt it will work (either in parliament, with the pubic or the EU) ... but I honestly cant see another reason that the government "forgot" to put up tellers - for sure there must be a plan behind that

 

[Maticmaker]

become voters for a right-wing party as they get older,

Where do you think todays legions of pensioner tory voters come from?

They were young once and probably just as nice and idealistic as todays young, but as they grow older their perspective shifts and they realise that nice/idealistic guys tend to finish last, if they finish at all, and that just as much bullshit comes from all across the political spectrum, not just the right, and that standing and shouting in the streets can be exciting but in this country (as opposed to France) it usually achieves jack shit, except of course if you are arrested and then often police/criminal record is established that will follow you forever.

It took me years to realise that some support for left wing causes in my early twenties that saw me out on the streets had been photographed and recorded and years later stopped me getting onto short lists for certain job... obviously that can't happen now, but it did then.

The ageing process generally wears you down and slows you down, but it gives you one big advantage you begin to realise that in your youth, you knew feck all!

 

[MadMike]

Tbh the longer he stays in power but in a state of legislative impotency the more this will play against him. The more time he gets to demonstrate what a buffoon he is in PMQs, the more Tory MPs grow unscared of him and disavow him (the moderates at least), the more his lies get exposed, the more he gets humiliated by all sides... the more his appeal will wane and the leave vote might be split to Farage.

I know Corbyn is gagging for an election as soon as the bill gets passed, but really the longer he holds back and watches the Boris horror show the better. Downside is that the country is indeed without legislative power in the meantime.

 

[sammsky1]

What happens practically at Irish border in a No Deal scenario?

 

[Smores]

Lots has happened in the last day, and I haven't caught up with the whole thread, but... Between proroguing parliament and the thing with "accidentally" putting May's deal back to parliament - could that be a ruse for Boris to pretend he's been "forced" into putting the same deal (i.e. the only deal that's ever been realistically possible) back to the vote in hope that it might gain some support now that leaving with no deal is ruled out, at least in the short term?

If it was intentional (must have been by reports) then he's done it so he can use it to both hit Labour with "you don't want a deal" whilst also voting against it because it's a terrible deal.

You might think those two views are contradictory but i really don't think it matters anymore. It's depressing but does the truth matter? Does it really?

 

[Smores]

What happens practically at Irish border in a No Deal scenario?

I'd predict absolutely nothing. The government care more about narrative than any legalities so they'll pretend it doesn't matter and see how the Irish respond.

 

[Cheesy]

Where do you think todays legions of pensioner tory voters come from?

They were young once and probably just as nice and idealistic as todays young, but as they grow older their perspective shifts and they realise that nice/idealistic guys tend to finish last, if they finish at all, and that just as much bullshit comes from all across the political spectrum, not just the right, and that standing and shouting in the streets can be exciting but in this country (as opposed to France) it usually achieves jack shit, except of course if you are arrested and then often police/criminal record is established that will follow you forever.

It took me years to realise that some support for left wing causes in my early twenties that saw me out on the streets had been photographed and recorded and years later stopped me getting onto short lists for certain job... obviously that can't happen now, but it did then.

The ageing process generally wears you down and slows you down, but it gives you one big advantage you begin to realise that in your youth, you knew feck all!

People generally get a bit more right-wing as they age but it's not universally true - the right have to actually offer benefits for the elderly (which they typically do) in order to entice them to vote for them, but an increasing number of middle-aged people who have struggled to get onto the housing ladder etc aren't feeling the benefits of Tory policies in the same way the Thatcherite generation did: because for as awful as I think Thatcher was, there can be no doubt that her policies had a beneficial impact upon those who actually did well during her reign. Not sure the same can be said now.

There's also a difference between being right-wing economically and socially. A lot of socially conservative people are arguably social conservatives by virtue of society becoming more progressive: someone who is currently against gay marriage but for, say, civil partnerships, would be considered conservative, whereas that same person holding an identical position could've been considered fairly progressive in the 50s.

 

[owlo]

yes - but IF he gets his election vote passed before next thirsday then i think that short term pain will possibly have been a price worth paying for him as within a week or 2 of an election campaign I think that will be forgotten... if not then I think its going to linger and really hurt him... so Id give it week before judging how bad this week has been for him... as they say a week is a long time in politics

It just depends if enough of the opposition parties can resist the urge for an election long enough to bring down the government at the queens speech

Agree it won't be SO bad, if he gets it passed. I suspect the other parties are wise to this though, and he will go down to a VoNC on Thursday. This takes us to the 19th before parliament can be dissolved, and then 25 working days until the new GE minimum which would conveniently be on 1st November I think. (I'm not sure if progogation will occur in this case, but I think it does?? If not, and they try to form a GNU as a delay tactic, this will take up even more time.)

I think he's snookered himself and knows it. Take all that with a huge bucket of salt though...

 

[MadMike]

The ageing process generally wears you down and slows you down, but it gives you one big advantage you begin to realise that in your youth, you knew feck all!

The lack of knowledge is not so much a problem in itself. It’s more the confidence and arrogance of youth which makes you think you know it all.

I certainly know more stuff in my 30s than I did in my 20s. But the more I learned the more appreciated the sheer volume of stuff I still don’t know of or don’t understand well enough. Therefore more humble and more keen to listen, rather than immediately object, than I once was.

“One thing I know is that I know nothing. That is the source of my wisdom” - Socrates

The counterpoint to that is that the innocence, arrogance and hotheadedness of youth is sometimes the catalyst for change that would otherwise almost terminally slow if we were just a society of mature but risk averse 80 year olds.

 

[owlo]

If that was his platform, he would have come out with it already, he's been a lifelong euroskeptic and his base is torn between young remainers and blue collar brexiters who want more social spending. He's got more reason to be squeezed between the two than a typical tory.

All about optics for me. He'll do it at the party conference or around that time. He knows even the likes of McDonnell are coalescing around that kind of option, and that the brexiteers are pretty much a lost cause.