Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

[horsechoker]

JRM's arrogant speech cost the government 4 votes. I love it, he's acted with impunity and now he's in a position of power his actions have consequences, long may he keep fecking things up for the government

 

[WensleyMU]

I don’t think labour can win a GE. Best thing to do now is to call that no confidence motion in government and form a national alliance.

It would be a very brave move that could have serious consequences for the respective parties.

 

[golden_blunder]

It would be a very brave move that could have serious consequences for the respective parties.

Maybe if people would think of the country first and stop playing party politics with our futures then we wouldn’t be in the mess we’re in now

 

[Fluctuation0161]

They could, but Scotland would have to jump through the hoops everyone else does.

Not just that, Scotland would also need to negotiate a deal with the UK, which might not be quite as amicable as it could have been in 2014.

Scotland would likely spend a few years out of the EU, dependent entirely on goodwill from Westminster, and WTO tariffs.

There's also currency to consider. And the chance of another nation vetoing, most likely Spain (though chances are they wouldn't, despite the damage it could do to Spain as a nation down the line).

Ironically Scotland's best chance to leave the UK would have been to back Leave.

Scottish economy is closer to being self sufficient than ever before.

They may have a period of increased national debt. But I suspect their economy would grow faster than England's in the scenario we discussed (UK Brexit, Scottish independence, then Scotland rejoin EU).

Think of England's heavy dependence on the finance sector. Which is heavily dependent on shared regulation within the EU.

 

[Kentonio]

I remember plenty of Conservatives openly saying that the single market/customs union would not be removed - the whole 'lets leave the EU' thing was primarily driven by a desire to reduce the amount of immigrants - i.e. the freedom of movement.

'Absolutely no-one is talking about leaving the single market' - Daniel Hannan, April 2016.

 

[balaks]

JRM's arrogant speech cost the government 4 votes. I love it, he's acted with impunity and now he's in a position of power his actions have consequences, long may he keep fecking things up for the government

The fact that we have let complete self-serving charlatans such as JRM and Boris get into such powerful positions is a damning indictment of the UK at the moment. We are turning into an America-lite.

 

[balaks]

'Absolutely no-one is talking about leaving the single market' - Daniel Hannan, April 2016.

Plenty of people happy to ignore this and invent a situation when 'no-deal' was what was being talked about at the start - utter and complete bollocks.

 

[owlo]

Swinson really not impressive.

Although some seat based forecasts show a Conserv ative majority https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html , and quite sizeable, mostly due to collapse of Labour vote I think.

Quite happy to post here as probably nobody really will read it but don't post to twitter etc please.

That's horribly inaccurate and using improperly weighted metrics [not giving much weighting to brexit attitudes] -28 seats, England info only.

Battersea will likely be labour (24% leave)
Beckenham is in play if lab/lib play nice
Berm/Southwark likely lab
Bristol North likely lab
Cam SE likely lib if lab play nice
Cant likely lab
Chesham in play
City of London needs a pact. Lib likely if so
Darlington easy con victory
Don valley easy con victory
Dorset North likely lib. Letwin well liked.
Enfield gimme for lab
Finchley and Golders green. Should be a gimme for lab, but Anti Semitism row may hurt...
Guildford likely lib
Harrogate likely lab
Harrow east likely lab
Hendon. Should be a gimme for lab, but Anti Semitism row may hurt...
Kesington likely lab/lib if they play nice
Loughborough in play
Newbury tough
Putney likely lib/lab if pact
Reading E likely lab
Romsey and Soton N. Likely lib. Nokes knows it too.
Torbay likely lib
Warrington likely lab
Warwick/Leam likely lab if libs play nice
Wimbledon gimme for libs
Wirral W gimme for lab

 

[WensleyMU]

And the backstop? You can twist the words all you want but you conveniently are ignoring the most important element that has single handedly derailed brexit. What about Ireland?

Well yes, this would be why having a transitional deal is best.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

Scottish economy is closer to being self sufficient than ever before.

They may have a period of increased national debt. But I suspect their economy would grow faster than England's in the scenario we discussed (UK Brexit, Scottish independence, then Scotland rejoin EU).

Think of England's heavy dependence on the finance sector. Which is heavily dependent on shared regulation within the EU.

This idea makes little sense.

https://www.scottish-enterprise.com...cations-listings/scottish-economic-statistics

Scotland has heavy dependency on its financial sector which is heavily dependent on trade with the UK, specifically England. As mentioned earlier, 15% of Scottish jobs are dependent on internal trade, what do you think happens to them if Scotland leaves the Union?

 

[Raulduke]

 

[owlo]

Of course there would be a time limit, but the next 2 or 3 GE are likely to be based around Brexit if it hasn't happened.

It just isn't going to go away. Surely people realise this? Not for a generation at least.

You were telling us only the other day that once we get no deal, it's all done and dusted and the country can move on.

 

[WensleyMU]

Plenty of people happy to ignore this and invent a situation when 'no-deal' was what was being talked about at the start - utter and complete bollocks.

Everyone was talking about leaving the SM. It was the Customs Union which wasn't mentioned as much.

The pro remain leaflet stated leaving could mean losing access to the Single Market. Cameron stated the same (I misquoted earlier with the CU, that was not mentioned).

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.po...eferendum-vote-june-23-consequences-news/amp/

Cameron again stating he will pull the UK out of the single market if we vote to leave.

 

[balaks]

Everyone was talking about leaving the SM. It was the Customs Union which wasn't mentioned as much.

The pro remain leaflet stated leaving could mean losing access to the Single Market. Cameron stated the same (I misquoted earlier with the CU, that was not mentioned).

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.po...eferendum-vote-june-23-consequences-news/amp/

Cameron again stating he will pull the UK out of the single market if we vote to leave.

It's information creep - Cameron said it could mean leaving the SM not would. Nobody mentioned leaving the CU as you have now acknowledged. Somehow over the last few years things have got twisted and now people seem to believe that a 'no-deal' brexit is the only thing that people really voted for when in reality nobody was advocating for WHO rules, a border in Ireland, no CU or SM. Not only that the general public were ignorant of all this back then - Ireland was barely mentioned.

It was all about getting the foreigners out and keeping them out.

 

[Zlatattack]

I see no reason to celebrate people dying as some sort of victory.

I'm not having a party, i'm just pointing out in a rather crude manner that a large percentage of brexiteers are elderly and less likely to be around to see another general election or two, than remain voters.

 

[balaks]

Well yes, this would be why having a transitional deal is best.

That is one hell of an understatement.

 

[MadMike]

It has become clear that Cummings isn't as clever as he thinks he is.

I think his plan all along was to turn this into a No Deal vs Remain election, since Parliament has no majority for anything. A binary choice where only one side respects the referendum result, so he can pitch an election as People vs Parliament where he's with the side of people and democracy.

And obviously to achieve that he would need the Tory party to fully embrace No Deal. The way to do that is to:
a) purge anyone who stands up against No Deal
b) make it so the only possible outcome in an election there the Tories win, is a no deal Brexit.

First he convinced Boris to run for the party leadership on "No more extensions" ticket. Then he organises a proroguation which forces the hand of the Rebels and gives him the excuse to achieve a). Then he plans an election for the 15th of October. In the remaining 2 weeks of October there's neither time to negotiate another deal nor time to pass it through parliament. The State Opening of the Parliament and Queen's Speech is 2 weeks after polling day. So there's no time pass legislation before Brexit happens. Then Tories can no longer claim to be pro deal at all.

I'd say he had a plan and the he's playing through that plan. And yes, his plan has a gamble and uncertainty since it does go to the people. No Deal on Halloween might be scuppered with today's (likely) legislation. But with a 3 month extension only, a PM who won't ask for more extensions, and anti-No Dealers purged... he still has the Tory party where he wants it.

Don't be quick to call him stupid until all this has played out.

 

[owlo]

Don't be quick to call him stupid until all this has played out.

Perhaps not stupid, but hugely reckless. Almost certainly destroying the Conservative party for a chance of his Brexit. Not that he likely cares.

Boris however, you could argue is stupid.

 

[WensleyMU]

You were telling us only the other day that once we get no deal, it's all done and dusted and the country can move on.

You mean half an hour ago? When I said no deal still requires us to negotiate the actual trade deal?

 

[owlo]

You mean half an hour ago? When I said no deal still requires us to negotiate the actual trade deal?

You mean to accept the withdrawal agreement and pay the settlement aye? And just lack a few crfitical foods and medicines in the meantime.

 

[balaks]

You mean half an hour ago? When I said no deal still requires us to negotiate the actual trade deal?

So what happens in the months and years it could take to negotiate these trade deals in a 'no-deal' scenario? What happens to the land border between the EU and UK?

 

[golden_blunder]

Bet it’s the proposals by the UUP.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-49545492

 

[WensleyMU]

It's information creep - Cameron said it could mean leaving the SM not would. Nobody mentioned leaving the CU as you have now acknowledged. Somehow over the last few years things have got twisted and now people seem to believe that a 'no-deal' brexit is the only thing that people really voted for when in reality nobody was advocating for WHO rules, a border in Ireland, no CU or SM. Not only that the general public were ignorant of all this back then - Ireland was barely mentioned.

It was all about getting the foreigners out and keeping them out.

Except Brexit was always going to lead to more "foreign people".

 

[balaks]

Except Brexit was always going to lead to more "foreign people".

Well - just different foreign people. What about my other points?

 

[MadMike]

Perhaps not stupid, but hugely reckless. Almost certainly destroying the Conservative party for a chance of his Brexit. Not that he likely cares.

Boris however, you could argue is stupid.

Radically changed? Yes for sure.
Destroyed? No

And yes, I don't think he cares either. He's a campaign manager, this works great for his CV and reputation. The whole country is talking about him.

 

[owlo]

Radically changed? Yes for sure.
Destroyed? No

And yes, I don't think he cares either. He's a campaign manager, this works great for his CV and reputation. The whole country is talking about him.

I'll clarify. Dump them out of power for 10-20 years, rewrite the electoral landscape, and push out the more moderate MP's in place of hard righters.

Destroyed is subjective I guess!

 

[Maticmaker]

I don’t think labour can win a GE. Best thing to do now is to call that no confidence motion in government and form a national alliance.

What exactly would this alliance do?
Would it revoke A50?;
Go for a Labour type Brexit plan?
Re-jig May's WA... just what would it do?

We have seen through the indicative votes saga (who some claim was the most inept phase in British political history) how incompetent at agreeing anything the current Parliament is. It can agree what its against but not what its for? Even another referendum wouldn't solve the problem, could make it even worse, best of three, best of five etc.

Even a GE would not of its self, solve anything, because unless we walk away with the now infamous 'No deal' or revoke A50, we get no where with the EU!

And all the time the clocks ticking... as someone said, once or twice... or maybe three times... or five times...etc.

 

[Kentonio]

Swinson really not impressive.

Quite happy to post here as probably nobody really will read it but don't post to twitter etc please.

That's horribly inaccurate and using improperly weighted metrics [not giving much weighting to brexit attitudes] -28 seats, England info only.

Battersea will likely be labour (24% leave)
Beckenham is in play if lab/lib play nice
Berm/Southwark likely lab
Bristol North likely lab
Cam SE likely lib if lab play nice
Cant likely lab
Chesham in play
City of London needs a pact. Lib likely if so
Darlington easy con victory
Don valley easy con victory
Dorset North likely lib. Letwin well liked.
Enfield gimme for lab
Finchley and Golders green. Should be a gimme for lab, but Anti Semitism row may hurt...
Guildford likely lib
Harrogate likely lab
Harrow east likely lab
Hendon. Should be a gimme for lab, but Anti Semitism row may hurt...
Kesington likely lab/lib if they play nice
Loughborough in play
Newbury tough
Putney likely lib/lab if pact
Reading E likely lab
Romsey and Soton N. Likely lib. Nokes knows it too.
Torbay likely lib
Warrington likely lab
Warwick/Leam likely lab if libs play nice
Wimbledon gimme for libs
Wirral W gimme for lab

Interesting. Are you defining 'play nice' as actually standing down to let the other party have a free run?

 

[golden_blunder]

Except Brexit was always going to lead to more "foreign people".

Yes we know that but pre-referendum the talk was all about controlling borders. Farage was even on a big poster with a horde of people in the background, which turned out to be Syrian refugees but the hint was clear. There was even BS about thousands of Turks coming to UK which got the natives in a panic. Again they aren’t even in the EU. Loads of dirty brainwashing went on. Only after the vote did more people come out and talk about replacing EU workers with non-EU workers.
That being said a lot of examples of Indians, Asians, Africans etc being told in the street by joe public they’d be kicked out after brexit. The common man in big parts has proven to be not very well informed and leave campaigners played to that

 

[B20]

Radically changed? radicalised? Yes for sure.
Destroyed? No.

 

[B20]

With so many being purged and departing from the conservative party, you'd imagine there is enough of a base and politicians to form a new moderate conservative party.

 

[balaks]

Yes we know that but pre-referendum the talk was all about controlling borders. Farage was even on a big poster with a horde of people in the background, which turned out to be Syrian refugees but the hint was clear. There was even BS about thousands of Turks coming to UK which got the natives in a panic. Again they aren’t even in the EU. Loads of dirty brainwashing went on. Only after the vote did more people come out and talk about replacing EU workers with non-EU workers.
That being said a lot of examples of Indians, Asians, Africans etc being told in the street by joe public they’d be kicked out after brexit. The common man in big parts has proven to be not very well informed and leave campaigners played to that

100% agree with all of that.

 

[horsechoker]

With so many being purged and departing from the conservative party, you'd imagine there is enough of a base and politicians to form a new moderate conservative party.

I think it would end up like change UK etc.

 

[WensleyMU]

So what happens in the months and years it could take to negotiate these trade deals in a 'no-deal' scenario? What happens to the land border between the EU and UK?

If I had the answers I would probably be in Brussels right now, to be fair.

 

[WensleyMU]

With so many being purged and departing from the conservative party, you'd imagine there is enough of a base and politicians to form a new moderate conservative party.

Some have already stated they will sit with the conservatives today. I would expect on most issues, they will vote with to Tory party also.

 

[balaks]

If I had the answers I would probably be in Brussels right now, to be fair.

You would think we would have been informed what would happen though wouldn't you given that we are possibly only weeks away from it actually happening. It does give the impression that nobody actually knows nor is really planning for it.

The fact we are getting so close to the deadline without a clear explanation available is quite shocking.

 

[SteveJ]

Few of these tubthumping politicians ever mention just why thousands of non-nationals were allowed into the UK - it's because they were viewed, and used, as cheap labour; exploited, in fact...by people like those politicians.

 

[Raulduke]

Bet it’s the proposals by the UUP.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-49545492

I'd guess Johnson is trying to determine if there is any way to repackage an NI only backstop as something the DUP could accept as unlikely as that might sound. The DUP won't want an election any time soon as they will lose at least one of their seats to Alliance and in all likelihood their confidence and supply agreement with whatever government came out the other side. That's not to mention the RHI report which is expected in the coming weeks.

 

[Maticmaker]

I think his plan all along was to turn this into a No Deal vs Remain election, since Parliament has no majority for anything. A binary choice where only one side respects the referendum result, so he can pitch an election as People vs Parliament where he's with the side of people and democracy.

And obviously to achieve that he would need the Tory party to fully embrace No Deal. The way to do that is to:
a) purge anyone who stands up against No Deal
b) make it so the only possible outcome in an election there the Tories win, is a no deal Brexit.

First he convinced Boris to run for the party leadership on "No more extensions" ticket. Then he organises a proroguation which forces the hand of the Rebels and gives him the excuse to achieve a). Then he plans an election for the 15th of October. In the remaining 2 weeks of October there's neither time to negotiate another deal nor time to pass it through parliament. The State Opening of the Parliament and Queen's Speech is 2 weeks after polling day. So there's no time pass legislation before Brexit happens. Then Tories can no longer claim to be pro deal at all.

I'd say he had a plan and the he's playing through that plan. And yes, his plan has a gamble and uncertainty since it does go to the people. No Deal on Halloween might be scuppered with today's (likely) legislation. But with a 3 month extension only, a PM who won't ask for more extensions, and anti-No Dealers purged... he still has the Tory party where he wants it.

Don't be quick to call him stupid until all this has played out.

Spot on!
It wasn't so much Cummings turning it into No Deal v Remain election, it has always been the case, ever since the binary question of IN or OUT was put, it could not end any other way and the EU recognise this. The EU of course hoped for another referendum, but that won't happen, at least anytime soon (because of deadlines); however a GE can be held in time, hence everything you say above is basically correct. No 'Machiavelli' character (as many see Cummings as) would advise his patron to go into battle with one wing of his army suspect, the deselection may have reduced the numbers, but its "stiffened the sinews and summoned up the blood".

 

[WensleyMU]

Yes we know that but pre-referendum the talk was all about controlling borders. Farage was even on a big poster with a horde of people in the background, which turned out to be Syrian refugees but the hint was clear. There was even BS about thousands of Turks coming to UK which got the natives in a panic. Again they aren’t even in the EU. Loads of dirty brainwashing went on. Only after the vote did more people come out and talk about replacing EU workers with non-EU workers.
That being said a lot of examples of Indians, Asians, Africans etc being told in the street by joe public they’d be kicked out after brexit. The common man in big parts has proven to be not very well informed and leave campaigners played to that

It's unfortunate many unsavoury characters attached themselves to leave.