Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
Buster15 said:
Of course not. Why would they. It is all about timing.
Click to expand...

I think it's more because this has been the trap Boris's team have been laying for them. Get them to vote against no deal and call a general election which will result in an extension from the EU. Then in the GE Boris can pitch Labour as the anti-democratic party that kept us in the EU beyond the 31st October.

Buster15 said:
Pretty brilliant. I don’t think so.
And how did he save Boris?
Click to expand...

I think you are only viewing it through the eyes of someone vehemently opposed to what he represents. It was supposed to enrage the remain side as he was playing to the Brexiteers. He saved Boris because everyone is talking about him and not Boris's rubbish performance. His performance will have titillated the Brexiteers with the idea that he's sticking it to the anti-democratic remainer parliament.
 
If Parliament today votes to prevent a No-Deal Brexit, can a post-GE parliament just overturn that?

I was looking at latest polls and the Tories would be the biggest party but not nearly enough to avoid a hung parliament. Looks like Tories and Brexit Party alliance vs LibLab alliance, of which Johnson-Farage would get more votes, but possibly still needing DUP to form a government. Looks like Boris knows he can't increase the number of seats they get but can make sure only those who agree with him get into his Party, while he also directly competes with the Brexit Party rather than Labour Party by taking on a No-Deal policy. Think he just wants a more united alliance with less rebels, to be able to successfully vote through their agendas.
 
Classical Mechanic said:
I think it's more because this has been the trap Boris's team have been laying for them. Get them to vote against no deal and call a general election which will result in an extension from the EU. Then in the GE Boris can pitch Labour as the anti-democratic party that kept us in the EU beyond the 31st October.



I think you are only viewing it through the eyes of someone vehemently opposed to what he represents. It was supposed to enrage the remain side as he was playing to the Brexiteers. He saved Boris because everyone is talking about him and not Boris's rubbish performance. His performance will have titillated the Brexiteers with the idea that he's sticking it to the anti-democratic remainer parliament.
Click to expand...

Maybe. But I really don't think that the public at large are all talking about JRM. Politics is about image. And the image of Boris floundering and bumbling is not a good one.
And despite Jeremy Corbyn performing much better yesterday, with a GE coming, by far the best option for Labour would be to replace him with a new more electable person.
And if they were to do that they would give Mr Bumble a real challenge.
 
OohAahMartial said:
If Parliament today votes to prevent a No-Deal Brexit, can a post-GE parliament just overturn that?

I was looking at latest polls and the Tories would be the biggest party but not nearly enough to avoid a hung parliament. Looks like Tories and Brexit Party alliance vs LibLab alliance, of which Johnson-Farage would get more votes, but possibly still needing DUP to form a government. Looks like Boris knows he can't increase the number of seats they get but can make sure only those who agree with him get into his Party, while he also directly competes with the Brexit Party rather than Labour Party by taking on a No-Deal policy. Think he just wants a more united alliance with less rebels, to be able to successfully vote through their agendas.
Click to expand...

yes - no parliament can bind its successor

As for the alliences

There was a remain alliance at the last by election - but labour wouldn't join it... who knows this time - you could have a formal pact for a second referendum with SNP, Greens, Lib and Lab only putting up one candidate between them and that would be very difficult for anybody to defeat... equalli if labour didnt join but there was a conservative and brexit alliance of only putting up one candidate then the models I have seen tend to give that around a 50 majority

One things for sure is a nasty campaign no matter which parties work together
 
Buster15 said:
Maybe. But I really don't think that the public at large are all talking about JRM. Politics is about image. And the image of Boris floundering and bumbling is not a good one.
And despite Jeremy Corbyn performing much better yesterday, with a GE coming, by far the best option for Labour would be to replace him with a new more electable person.
And if they were to do that they would give Mr Bumble a real challenge.
Click to expand...

I'm not saying that what Boris and his team are trying to achieve will work but so far things are going to plan for them. It's a high risk strategy that could very blow up in their face but they've boxed themselves into this corner.

It's quite remarkable that Farage has basically managed to take over the Tory party, they are basically UKIP now.
 
Classical Mechanic said:
I'm not saying that what Boris and his team are trying to achieve will work but so far things are going to plan for them. It's a high risk strategy that could very blow up in their face but they've boxed themselves into this corner.

It's quite remarkable that Farage has basically managed to take over the Tory party, they are basically UKIP now.
Click to expand...
it is a very genuine prospect that at a GE the brexit party get a few MP's and end up as the new DUP - basically able to dictate / overule government policy - Farrage would basically be the defacto PM :nervous:
 
Well that website predicts Brexit Party to not get a single seat. Guess they might get a significant share of popular vote, but not enough in any one seat to overthrow the incumbent or main challenger.
 
sun_tzu said:
it is a very genuine prospect that at a GE the brexit party get a few MP's and end up as the new DUP - basically able to dictate / overule government policy - Farrage would basically be the defacto PM :nervous:
Click to expand...

Has Farage actually confirmed he'll head up the party in a GE? If not I'm sceptical he'll run as it would mean him having to own no deal if it came to it.

Seem to me that its something Boris is terrified of too.
 
RochaRoja said:
The mental thing about this is that independence is still polling under 50%.
Click to expand...

Why is it mental?

Scotland are more dependent on trade with England than the UK is with the EU. 15% of their jobs are completely internal market dependent including one of their crown jewel industries (Finance), that's 400000 jobs.

Leaving the Union after the UK leaves the EU would be more insane than Brexit. Which is why the SNP's protestations about Brexit and saving people from the 'madness' of it are completely hollow.
 
Not seeing enough of any side able to move things forward. Surely at some point the country just has to call this off and remain a full member or go to a Norway type deal as damage limitation in order to eventually leave by honouring the stupid vote?

We go around in circles voting down the WA but then keep insisting no deal is not an option then vote down the WA again.
 
Last edited:
Classical Mechanic said:
Why is it mental?

Scotland are more dependent on trade with England than the UK is with the EU. 15% of their jobs are completely internal market dependent including one of their crown jewel industries (Finance), that's 400000 jobs.

Leaving the Union after the UK leaves the EU would be more insane than Brexit. Which is why the SNP's protestations about Brexit and saving people from the 'madness' of it are completely hollow.
Click to expand...

I voted for staying in the Union in 2014 for many reasons. But this absolute car crash of a process of the last 3 years makes me wonder why I bothered, I should have just moved back to Darlington.
 
Vault Dweller said:
I voted for staying in the Union in 2014 for many reasons. But this absolute car crash of a process of the last 3 years makes me wonder why I bothered, I should have just moved back to Darlington.
Click to expand...

Still, leaving the Union after the UK leaves the EU and with a global recession threatening would be economic insanity.
 
Classical Mechanic said:
Has Farage actually confirmed he'll head up the party in a GE? If not I'm sceptical he'll run as it would mean him having to own no deal if it came to it.

Seem to me that its something Boris is terrified of too.
Click to expand...
hes said (and not changed his stance yet)
If the conservative party run an election based on negotiating a deal the brexit party would put up candidates in every seat in the country
If the conservatives switch to a "clean break" i.e. no deal and no negotiations about that then the brexit party has said they would form a non agression pact with the conservatives - they would not put up any brexit party candidates against a sitting conservative MP who had signed up to a no deal manifesto (obviously yesterday cleared a lot of that out) and in all other seats there would be a decision based on who was likley to have more success in that constituency if they field a conservative or brexit party candidate (eg traditional labour leave seat voted overwhelmingly UKIP before of brexit in the euros might be a brexit candidate)... Farrage would then on a national basis campaign on the joint conservative / brexit platform (or at least that was his position about 24 hours ago)
 
sun_tzu said:
hes said (and not changed his stance yet)
If the conservative party run an election based on negotiating a deal the brexit party would put up candidates in every seat in the country
If the conservatives switch to a "clean break" i.e. no deal and no negotiations about that then the brexit party has said they would form a non agression pact with the conservatives - they would not put up any brexit party candidates against a sitting conservative MP who had signed up to a no deal manifesto (obviously yesterday cleared a lot of that out) and in all other seats there would be a decision based on who was likley to have more success in that constituency if they field a conservative or brexit party candidate (eg traditional labour leave seat voted overwhelmingly UKIP before of brexit in the euros might be a brexit candidate)... Farrage would then on a national basis campaign on the joint conservative / brexit platform (or at least that was his position about 24 hours ago)
Click to expand...

Is he going to run as leader though?
 
Classical Mechanic said:
Is he going to run as leader though?
Click to expand...
I believe so - and probably get a cabinet post should he be elected (just like there were libs in the coalition cabinet)... and then I assume the brexit party block would become an even more rightwing of the ERG dragging an even more right wing conservative government even further to the right
 
Classical Mechanic said:
Why is it mental?

Scotland are more dependent on trade with England than the UK is with the EU. 15% of their jobs are completely internal market dependent including one of their crown jewel industries (Finance), that's 400000 jobs.

Leaving the Union after the UK leaves the EU would be more insane than Brexit. Which is why the SNP's protestations about Brexit and saving people from the 'madness' of it are completely hollow.
Click to expand...
Post independence. They could re join the EU if Westminster drags them out.
 
Just a thought but while the anti Brexit side gained a small victory last night, they may have missed a small but important detail.

Any future government with sufficient numbers could claim to have a mandate to take us out of the EU, at least for a generation.
 
Fluctuation0161 said:
Post independence. They could re join the EU if Westminster drags them out.
Click to expand...

60%+ of their exports go to the UK. 15% of their jobs are completely dependent on the UK market, including their finance industry, which along with the oil industry is a crown jewel industry for them. Rejoining the EU after the UK has left has little positive effect for them considering how dependent they are on the UK for trade. Why would those UK dependent 15% of jobs stay in Scotland under those conditions?
 
Last edited:
WensleyMU said:
Just a thought but while the anti Brexit side gained a small victory last night, they may have missed a small but important detail.

Any future government with sufficient numbers could claim to have a mandate to take us out of the EU, at least for a generation.
Click to expand...

There still is a mandate to leave the EU - just not for a no-deal brexit.
 
WensleyMU said:
Just a thought but while the anti Brexit side gained a small victory last night, they may have missed a small but important detail.

Any future government with sufficient numbers could claim to have a mandate to take us out of the EU, at least for a generation.
Click to expand...

No they couldn't. They'd have to run in a general election with an intention to leave as an official policy (or hold another referendum) in order to claim a mandate. The idea that they could hark back to a referendum held years previously (and several general elections prior) is laughable.
 
Fluctuation0161 said:
Post independence. They could re join the EU if Westminster drags them out.
Click to expand...

They could, but Scotland would have to jump through the hoops everyone else does.

Not just that, Scotland would also need to negotiate a deal with the UK, which might not be quite as amicable as it could have been in 2014.

Scotland would likely spend a few years out of the EU, dependent entirely on goodwill from Westminster, and WTO tariffs.

There's also currency to consider. And the chance of another nation vetoing, most likely Spain (though chances are they wouldn't, despite the damage it could do to Spain as a nation down the line).

Ironically Scotland's best chance to leave the UK would have been to back Leave.
 
Kentonio said:
No they couldn't. They'd have to run in a general election with an intention to leave as an official policy (or hold another referendum) in order to claim a mandate. The idea that they could hark back to a referendum held years previously (and several general elections prior) is laughable.
Click to expand...

Of course there would be a time limit, but the next 2 or 3 GE are likely to be based around Brexit if it hasn't happened.

It just isn't going to go away. Surely people realise this? Not for a generation at least.
 
esmufc07 said:
Starmer says Labour won't vote for a GE today
Click to expand...
And they should not do that. They will be the scapegoats if they do it before 31st October.
Also they do not stand a chance of winning it, so there is no hurry for them.

WensleyMU said:
Just a thought but while the anti Brexit side gained a small victory last night, they may have missed a small but important detail.

Any future government with sufficient numbers could claim to have a mandate to take us out of the EU, at least for a generation.
Click to expand...
If that were truly the case May would have won the last election with a huge majority. It turned out she lost the support of the people for actually executing Brexit.
 
I don’t think labour can win a GE. Best thing to do now is to call that no confidence motion in government and form a national alliance.
 
WensleyMU said:
Of course there would be a time limit, but the next 2 or 3 GE are likely to be based around Brexit if it hasn't happened.

It just isn't going to go away. Surely people realise this? Not for a generation at least.
Click to expand...

Thankfully each passing year more and more old people who voted for Brexit, go to the big Brexit street party in the sky.
 
balaks said:
There still is a mandate to leave the EU - just not for a no-deal brexit.
Click to expand...

It was actually pointed out before the referendum that leaving would be on a no deal basis. Then trade talks would begin. Cameron spelled it out, leaving meant the EU, SM and CU. The term 'No deal' just wasn't used.

Which is why I dislike the term 'no deal'. In reality there's no such thing as no deal, it's just no withdrawal deal. The EU and UK would still have to come and negotiate the actual trade deal, which would likely take years if we look at the EUs other 3rd party free trade deals. Of course things could be fast tracked based on the past relationships and the infrastructure already in place.
 
sun_tzu said:
they would not put up any brexit party candidates against a sitting conservative MP who had signed up to a no deal manifesto (obviously yesterday cleared a lot of that out)
Click to expand...

Yes, Nicholas Soames more or less admitted that last night on News Night. Boris will not want to go into an election with ardent remain MPs onboard, even if they are on the back benchers, last night allowed him to clear the decks by driving them to mutiny and then he made them walk the plank.

The opposition (collectively) now have to 'Oppose', for real, the problem is for Labour in particular they have not done the purging that Boris has so they have large swathes of voters and their MPs in Leave constituencies who the leadership are not sure how they will vote. It will be hard for Labour to plan a national campaign and a lot will depend on where the bulk of the deselected Tories go? Some like Clarke and Soames will retire so that wont be an issue, if however the majority move to the Lib Dems, then that will toxify their appeal with traditional Lib Dem supporters. The Tory Rebels, whilst basking in their new found whiter than white remainer clothes do not have clean hands and trying to jump aboard the Lib Dems could scuttle that ship, especially in a GE... a referendum would of course be different!

I don't think anyone, Boris, the EU, Industry (both in the UK and the EU) and of course the long suffering public want another extension, even the majority of those who look like winning the vote tonight don't really want an extension, they want Brexit stopped. Leaving Boris in charge through orchestrating a stalemate is a dangerous tactic for the opposition, he has already shown he is prepared to wield the political knife, plus 'events dear boy' occur and can change things instantly. The opposition now have to pick up Boris's gauntlet and agree to a GE... remember Theresa's mistake, "she who hesitates is lost".

Corbyn has played a blinder so far in helping to bring us to the point of a GE, something he always maintained he wanted and Jeremy as an individual probably does want to take Boris on; however the Islington elite who allowed him to take over the party initially, are poised to repeat their mistake. Was it Hegel who said those who never learn anything from history, will repeat their mistakes!
 
Raees said:
I don’t think labour can win a GE. Best thing to do now is to call that no confidence motion in government and form a national alliance.
Click to expand...

Who would be leader though - i cant see enough people backing corbyn and i cant see him stepping aside (and i suspect he will whip and possibly even deselect labour MP's who back other candidates)

Equally any alliance you would suspect would be formed to allow a referendum to take place and that's at least 6 months with no legal challenges to the question / format - so probably a year - and a year would be a very long time for that kind of alliance to hold together

Logically i think thats the best option of they can agree a way forward and coalesce around a leader - but i don't see that being practical

whats the odds on Mays bill coming back again and being passed?
 
sun_tzu said:
Who would be leader though - i cant see enough people backing corbyn and i cant see him stepping aside (and i suspect he will whip and possibly even deselect labour MP's who back other candidates)

Equally any alliance you would suspect would be formed to allow a referendum to take place and that's at least 6 months with no legal challenges to the question / format - so probably a year - and a year would be a very long time for that kind of alliance to hold together

Logically i think thats the best option of they can agree a way forward and coalesce around a leader - but i don't see that being practical

whats the odds on Mays bill coming back again and being passed?
Click to expand...
I think we'll see today, isn't there a group trying to get it voted on once again? Wouldn't it be hilarious if May voted against it
 
WensleyMU said:
It was actually pointed out before the referendum that leaving would be on a no deal basis. Then trade talks would begin. Cameron spelled it out, leaving meant the EU, SM and CU. The term 'No deal' just wasn't used.

Which is why I dislike the term 'no deal'. In reality there's no such thing as no deal, it's just no withdrawal deal. The EU and UK would still have to come and negotiate the actual trade deal, which would likely take years if we look at the EUs other 3rd party free trade deals. Of course things could be fast tracked based on the past relationships and the infrastructure already in place.
Click to expand...

And the backstop? You can twist the words all you want but you conveniently are ignoring the most important element that has single handedly derailed brexit. What about Ireland?

I remember plenty of Conservatives openly saying that the single market/customs union would not be removed - the whole 'lets leave the EU' thing was primarily driven by a desire to reduce the amount of immigrants - i.e. the freedom of movement.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.