I still think that from the EU perspective it would be a mistake. This anti European hatred and mania of grandeur are well embedded in the British psyche. They need to test what it means going solo else this problem will pop up again in 5-10 years time. The EU can't afford having Brexiteers blaming the EU as the reason why Brexit never occurred.
Brexited | the worst threads live the longest
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) and Jamie (@Vault Dweller) are here to talk about United's dreadful home defeat at the hands of Big Ange's Tottenham Hotspur. Should this have been the end of Ten Hag? How long does he actually have left? And does Nik finally want ETH out?!
I still think that from the EU perspective it would be a mistake. This anti European hatred and mania of grandeur are well embedded in the British psyche. They need to test what it means going solo else this problem will pop up again in 5-10 years time. The EU can't afford having Brexiteers blaming the EU as the reason why Brexit never occurred.
It is just that they can't torelate uncertainty very well and also scared a delay will mean no Brexit. I cannot believe people are increasingly buying into the idea of no deal being better than a deal of some sort.
Ireland should be helped by the EU irrespective what happens.
There's no time limit on the ability to revoke, as long as we're still in we can withdraw it yes.
I think you're probably thinking of discussions around the WA transition as it's during that period we'll be left in limbo unable to revoke and slowly heading to our doom.
That problems easily solved.
Ten years after leaving without a deal, Brexiteers will still blame the EU for everything. There's no way around that.
If the UK leaves the EU then I doubt they can.
You underestimate their... mental flexibility.
"We're in the deep shit because the EU bullied us, because they were afraid of the proud British nation! They are still undermining us at every turn because they are TERRIFIED OF US!"
If that's the case then the UK won't be joining the organisation that bullied them and the UK would remain a third country. Which would mean it won't be an EU problem. As Barnier said, the EU needs to stop being idealistic and naive. There are countries who might say one thing and act in another way. The UK in this mindset is a competitor at best and an enemy of the union at worst. It can't be allowed to keep its vote and veto.
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I still believe we’re ultimately getting a no deal Brexit
Potentially.
Though I think more likely is that she resigns/ is pushed out after MV3 fails. At that point I’ve no idea.
A Tory leadership election where the only way to win over their old, Brexit-y membership base is to promise a no deal exit?
That's my worry. Ideally there's a genuine cross-party effort to sort out the options with indicative votes however i have a feeling nothing will happen until the new leader is appointed and it'll end up being Leadsom and the same shit.
The EU seems to think it is an option.
The only way May's deal gets voted through is if she does a deal with Corbyn. She could have already done that.
1 Labour remove the whip and her deal gets through
2 She says some more stuff to piss off her own MP's
3 Corbyn Tables VoNC
4 Her MP's abstain and VoNC is upheld
5 GE called.
6 Further Brexit extension
7 May resigns
8 Tory leadership contest
9 GE Election run
10 Winner gets to negotiate future relationship (and run the country)
1 Labour remove the whip and her deal gets through
2 She says some more stuff to piss off her own MP's
3 Corbyn Tables VoNC
4 Her MP's abstain and VoNC is upheld
5 GE called.
6 Further Brexit extension
7 May resigns
8 Tory leadership contest
9 GE Election run
10 Winner gets to negotiate future relationship (and run the country)
yup pretty nailed on whoever wins the tory leadership will have a huge hard on for brexit
Id guess you would see a pretty wide field of:
johnson, Mogg, Ledsom, Javid, Raab, Gove, Davies..
Have a feeling if Boris can get to the final two he would win with the party membership but that through deals the rest might be able to force him out in the MP only rounds
I'd guess Pop will win... he will be able to play the loyalty card which will get him enough votes... he was seen as putting in a good performance against corbyn... he was a pretty prominent face of brexit during the referendum and perhaps most importantly the man has no real scruples as far as i can tell and will promice anybody anything to get their support on side during the MP's ballots
Probably something like
PM... Pob (Gove)
Chancellor... Mogg
Foreign sec... Davies
Home Sec... Ledsom
Brexit sec (presuming e still have one for on going negotiations)... Johnson
Defence... Fox
Trade... Raab
Health - meh just sell the NHS to america as part of a trade deal
Ouch, they're all clearly very fed up with her even Brexit aside I'm not sure she can continue.
If the EU leaders could make the delay conditional on her stepping down i feel like they would.
United Ireland?
Im not sure... I mean Johnson is the favourite to replace her with the bookies and Im not sure any of them want to deal with him zip wiring into negotiations...
Although everyone would like that , I think it will be rightly perceived as meddling into UK internal affairs if they state demands on who is the PM. After all, the EU is not the US.
As pointed out you were wrong in thinking we couldn't revoke during the extension, but in addition you're also wrong in not understanding what it means. We wouldn't be 'asking to be back', we would never have left in the first place. In hindsight you being 99.9% certain of the outcome should have warned me.
Top tory donor calling for a unity government. It seems like the most logical route forward once May has stepped down but i have no idea how in practice we'd get there.
Wouldn't that basically mean Labour taking on more blame/responsibility for the Brexit crisis? Not sure that would be such a great idea for them.
Can Mrs May pull Tuesday's vote?
Not sure Corbyn is gonna sit round a table with chukka based on his last tantrum
Yes... I believe she has to make an amendable statement by next Tuesday which everyone assumed would be the vote... It does not have to be but an amendable statement on brexit would have to happen and possibly depending on amendments she would then loose control of the timing of when to re-present her vote... So it would be a gamble but if she is convinced she will loose the vote anyway she may go with that
I think national unity goverments usually only involve parties anyway
We've not had one since the 30s and that was at war, i think it's perhaps a concept that sounds more feasible than it actually is
Yeah, but until now, no deal was only favoured by the extremists, even among the Tories.Err, do you remember the 2017 election?
A Unity government guarantees a Norway style deal. That's palatable but pointless.
I don't think it does either party any favours. Its basically a bunch of MPs from both sides telling May and Corbyn to feck off.
I don't think it does either party any favours. Its basically a bunch of MPs from both sides telling May and Corbyn to feck off.
If it only did that much and was effective in achieving that then at this point I'm all for it.
Any chance of Portillo making a comeback?
What are you dreaming of? His time was 15 years ago or so.....
He would not stand a chance in the current Tory climate.
With you on Gove. But here's the thing. Anyone that lands the job will think twice before going down in history as the PM that drove us off the cliff. It's fine and dandy to yell from the sidelines but once you're in control and the full weight of responsibility kicks in then that's when people change their standpoint. Mogg will never be PM. Neither will Davis. The only potential PM that would blindly lead us of the cliff would be Johnson - but the civil servants may even get to him too.
May has already promised her backbenchers she will not lead the Tory Party at the next General Election, so her 'going' is not an issue for them, just the timing. However the Tory senior frontbenchers have a good reason to keep May 'lashed' to the PM/Party Leader role, at least until the 'shit-storm' around Brexit has died down, or is finished, its a sort of slant on " young cardinals vote for old Popes" sort of thing.
I did at one stage think May after losing a third time would revoke A50 then resign saying she had "done her best" etc.; however because its obvious now its coming down to her 'deal' (WA with some fancy dressings up), or a 'no deal' on WTO terms, and the EU have backed her in that 'play', then she is now quite brazenly forcing the MP's to chose her way or the highway (No deal). Also the EU seem to be prepared to take a massive gamble on her succeeding, rather than risk chaos in their forthcoming elections if the UK is required to send back MEP's.
In one sense May is 'fire proof' because her political career is finished , whatever happens, no politician can come back from this debacle. So Theresa can, if she wishes, adopt a kamikaze approach; the only barrier is her own party. The Tory party is renowned for 'circling the waggons' when necessary, May might be allowed to cause havoc in the country, but she will not be allowed to destroy the Party. So whatever happens the Tories will put themselves in a position to bounce back and despite all JC's posturing/positioning of his party, trying to steer a middle course (and he's not done too bad at that) the propensity of Labour to 'shoot its self in the foot' is growing by the hour as the 29th March approaches. It now depends on how 'hard' the hard liners, both leave and remain are and stay in their fox holes.
I did at one stage think May after losing a third time would revoke A50 then resign saying she had "done her best" etc.; however because its obvious now its coming down to her 'deal' (WA with some fancy dressings up), or a 'no deal' on WTO terms, and the EU have backed her in that 'play', then she is now quite brazenly forcing the MP's to chose her way or the highway (No deal). Also the EU seem to be prepared to take a massive gamble on her succeeding, rather than risk chaos in their forthcoming elections if the UK is required to send back MEP's.
In one sense May is 'fire proof' because her political career is finished , whatever happens, no politician can come back from this debacle. So Theresa can, if she wishes, adopt a kamikaze approach; the only barrier is her own party. The Tory party is renowned for 'circling the waggons' when necessary, May might be allowed to cause havoc in the country, but she will not be allowed to destroy the Party. So whatever happens the Tories will put themselves in a position to bounce back and despite all JC's posturing/positioning of his party, trying to steer a middle course (and he's not done too bad at that) the propensity of Labour to 'shoot its self in the foot' is growing by the hour as the 29th March approaches. It now depends on how 'hard' the hard liners, both leave and remain are and stay in their fox holes.
We'd get some nice train journeys out of it?
I think as long as pob gets power he genuinely wont care... plus im sure by then he will have lamed it all on may gashing up negotiations
he would be quite moderate by their standards today I think whilst at the time he was seen as very right wing...
Both main parties have moved so far that honestly i do think there is a massive space in the center with a lot of votes waiting for somebody credible
Mrs 711 absolutely loves Portillo's railway stuff.
When he was younger he was a Tory of the nastier kind, he's still a Tory but he's mellowed quite a bit, I'm not sure where he'd fit in with today's party, except being with the Brexiters of course.