Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

[unchanged_lineup]

Fair play to these folks: https://www.facebook.com/ledbydonkeys/posts/410410336442762

 

[Fridge chutney]

Looks like we'll exit with no deal.

What a bunch of morons and clowns we have running the UK.

 

[MadMike]

There are European elections on May 23, 2019. This date was set many years ago. Either UK gets out of the EU by then, or it stays and people should vote for representatives on May, like all other Europeans.

Isn't this obvious?

Why is May asking for an extension till June 30? Did I misunderstand something?

I assume a short extension will come with the proviso that UK doesn't take part in the elections. Something that's hard to argue for if it's a 2 year extension for example.

However rightfully the EU is asking for guarantees that the deal will pass this time, or this is just simply kicking the can in the most messy way.

 

[devilish]

Depends which version of a peoples vote, further subdivided by which questions. There are roughly 650 different opinions of Brexit in the UK Parliament all of which have the backing of one MP.

The only way the UK can get an orderly Brexit which include a long transitional period is for the UK to accept the withdrawal agreement. This is what most remainers should want in case Brexit does happen. So I was wondering if this could work

A- She should ask the EU for a decent extension to Article 50 IF Westminster accepts the withdrawal agreement in parliament AND go for a people's vote. The EU had made it clear that it would accept either option as a decent justification to extend article 50. Surely they would accept to extend article 50 if both options (and only those options) are on the table

B- She should offer Remainers a people's vote which also include a remain in the EU option IF they back the withdrawal agreement

Thus the referendum questions would be as follows

A- Remain in the EU
B- A no deal Brexit
C- The UK negotiate with the EU for a deal

 

[Maticmaker]

A no deal outcome is the only option IF the country whose leaving expect to enjoy the same perks of being an EU member without actually being an EU member. However there's plenty of options for a country to have a good relationship with the EU. The Norway option, the Swiss option (although the EU is slowly phasing that away), the Turkish option (customs union but nothing more) and the Canada type deal.

The problem here is that the UK insist on picking a cake and eat it deal, a sort of, Canada ++++++++++++++ which stinks of EU membership but without commitments towards the union whatsoever. That wasn't given to the US and it won't be given to the UK.

Yes, I can see that, but a lot of our leavers believe that we're not the US, and we will have to trade with the EU and them with us, so let's 'clear the decks' with a 'no deal' if necessary and then come at it a fresh! In my experience, which I admit is limited, this view is getting stronger, not weaker, as a way to move past Brexit!

 

[Adebesi]

The only way the UK can get an orderly Brexit which include a long transitional period is for the UK to accept the withdrawal agreement. This is what most remainers should want in case Brexit does happen. So I was wondering if this could work

A- She should ask the EU for a decent extension to Article 50 IF Westminster accepts the withdrawal agreement in parliament AND go for a people's vote. The EU had made it clear that it would accept either option as a decent justification to extend article 50. Surely they would accept to extend article 50 if both options (and only those options) are on the table

B- She should offer Remainers a people's vote which also include a remain in the EU option IF they back the withdrawal agreement

Thus the referendum questions would be as follows

A- Remain in the EU
B- A no deal Brexit
C- The UK negotiate with the EU for a deal

I dont understand this. If MPs vote for May's deal there is no need for a referendum. And even if there was a referendum, why would we negotiate another deal with the EU (option C) if MPs backed May's deal?

 

[Smores]

To be honest not that much has changed the short extension was always for Mays deal anyway.

We're still in flux until Mays deal comes before the house and it can be voted on. Once rejected or amendments made then it'll be long extension

 

[Adebesi]

Surely therell be time to squeeze in one more vote? You know what they say, four times a charm.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

To be honest not that much has changed the short extension was always for Mays deal anyway.

We're still in flux until Mays deal comes before the house and it can be voted on. Once rejected or amendments made then it'll be long extension

Why do you think there could be amendments or a long extension?

 

[11101]

Of course there is. It was Tory government with a Tory PM. That's fairly sufficient, do you expect a sudden in-depth understanding of the issues by the public ?

The Tories could hold a vote on whether the big bright thing in the sky is the sun and half of Labour would disagree. The Tories led us into this mess but Labour are more interested in playing party politics than trying to salvage anything positive from it. Neither side are going to come out looking good once this is all over.

 

[dogrob]

The EU should say enough is enough and simply throw the UK out of Europe then maybe finally I will know where I stand and what I need to continue to live and work in Germany.

 

[Maticmaker]

No

I'm not sure, I think after two years of letting Mrs May make a fool of herself trying to get 'a deal' with the EU, which could never be in the way she envisaged (red lines and all) they may now decide enough time has elapsed that without testing the public again (another referendum) they could risk voting they way the majority seem to feel and then blaming May, or the EU, or VAR.

The alternative is to 'suck up' a No deal and hope the leavers in their constituencies will still vote for them at the next GE!

 

[711]

I've been in the hills all day but if I've understood it right and the EU have refused an extension then I have a different take on it from most people. I think May will be quite happy, she's been steadily closing off all avenues and arguments until her final vote on her deal at the last minute when the only options left will be her deal or no deal. And I think she'll get it.

Yeah, I'm aware of Bercow's opinion, but I think she'll get round that, with an act if necessary.

 

[esmufc07]

I've been in the hills all day but if I've understood it right and the EU have refused an extension then I have a different take on it from most people. I think May will be quite happy, she's been steadily closing off all avenues and arguments until her final vote on her deal at the last minute when the only options left will be her deal or no deal. And I think she'll get it.

Yeah, I'm aware of Bercow's opinion, but I think she'll get round that, with an act if necessary.

Yeah, I just don't see how if it comes back to Parliament and it's clear it's the WA or no deal that they vote Mays deal down and opt for no deal.

Unless I'm missing something?

 

[Paul the Wolf]

I've been in the hills all day but if I've understood it right and the EU have refused an extension then I have a different take on it from most people. I think May will be quite happy, she's been steadily closing off all avenues and arguments until her final vote on her deal at the last minute when the only options left will be her deal or no deal. And I think she'll get it.

Yeah, I'm aware of Bercow's opinion, but I think she'll get round that, with an act if necessary.

They'll probably give a short extension if the UK agree the deal.
The vote will probably happen for the third time , somehow or other.
But, guess what, it'll be voted down again and ERG will get what they want , probably with Labour's help.

 

[horsechoker]

Yeah, I just don't see how if it comes back to Parliament and it's clear it's the WA or no deal that they vote Mays deal down and opt for no deal.

Unless I'm missing something?

It would show them to be massive hypocrites and incompetent, they rejected leaving without a deal, have refused the only deal and refused other measures like indicative votes. You can't even point the finger at a specific party as it was both the major parties who engaged in this. I hope that the politicians that put us into this crisis are voted out at the next election, I'd rather people target their local MP than voting against the current party in power.

 

[Adebesi]

I've been in the hills all day but if I've understood it right and the EU have refused an extension then I have a different take on it from most people. I think May will be quite happy, she's been steadily closing off all avenues and arguments until her final vote on her deal at the last minute when the only options left will be her deal or no deal. And I think she'll get it.

Yeah, I'm aware of Bercow's opinion, but I think she'll get round that, with an act if necessary.

Not inconceivable that she even asked them for this response, to scare the shit out of MPs into accepting the deal on offer.

 

[Fluctuation0161]

Of course there is. It was Tory government with a Tory PM. That's fairly sufficient, do you expect a sudden in-depth understanding of the issues by the public ?

Also, the Tory government called the referendum, failed to plan for leave, left everything until last few weeks having 2 years to plan after the vote, then imploded.

 

[The Firestarter]

“The Conservatives voted for a deal, Labour voted for No Deal” is not a complex take.

" ...was a bad deal" etc..

 

[711]

Not inconceivable that she even asked them for this response, to scare the shit out of MPs into accepting the deal on offer.

It certainly crossed my mind, several days ago!

 

[EwanI Ted]

" ...was a bad deal" etc..

Doesn’t change anything how bad the deal is, if it’s a binary choice.

 

[The Firestarter]

Also, the Tory government called the referendum, failed to plan for leave, left everything until last few weeks having 2 years to plan after the vote, then imploded.

That being said, Corbyn looks like exactly the person to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

 

[711]

They'll probably give a short extension if the UK agree the deal.
The vote will probably happen for the third time , somehow or other.
But, guess what, it'll be voted down again and ERG will get what they want , probably with Labour's help.

I think they've said they'll agree an extension if a deal is agreed haven't they?

 

[Infra-red]

Not inconceivable that she even asked them for this response, to scare the shit out of MPs into accepting the deal on offer.

Almost certainly the case. The EU and TM have exactly the same end goal - getting the WA through Parliament.

This is the final roll of the dice.

 

[MadMike]

" ...was a bad deal" etc..

When it comes to politics and the average voter, everything is approached with a bit of bias and lack of in-depth analysis.

It's as easy for a Tory supporter to blame it on Labour for not voting the deal and wanting unicorns, as is for a Labour voter to blame it on Tory incompetence and a bad deal put on the table. It depends on which side you're sitting.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

I think they've said they'll agree an extension if a deal is agreed haven't they?

Probably, has to be confirmed.

Just saw this:

France, Spain and Belgium are ready to veto a Brexit extension, the Press Association understands. The PA report goes on:

Sources have said France, Spain, Belgium and maybe Italy stand prepared to reject an extension without evidence Parliament is now ready to accept a deal and “the deadlock can be broken”.

Some member states worry there is no point to an extension as, even after 1,000 days of negotiation, Theresa May’s deal keeps being rejected and the EU cannot move any further towards the UK.

One source said: “We’re not against an extension per se but we need to have two things - first a demonstration that the situation has changed and there is a guarantee the extension is for something and second that an extension won’t be detrimental to the EU.

“Yes, a no-deal Brexit would be damaging and it’s absolutely not what we want but I think we’re ready to go to this situation because there are only two solutions - either a deal is accepted or there is no deal.

“The deal has been rejected and it keeps being rejected so if we come to no-deal then so be it.”

It is understood French president Emmanuel Macron believes Brexit is holding up his plans for radical reform of the EU and needs to be brought to a conclusion.

 

[JPRouve]

I think they've said they'll agree an extension if a deal is agreed haven't they?

No, Tusk said that he was favorable to it under certain conditions. EU leaders will talk about it tomorrow.

 

[11101]

Not inconceivable that she even asked them for this response, to scare the shit out of MPs into accepting the deal on offer.

Rumours in Italy are that the UK government has asked the Italian government to reject an extension.

 

[Infra-red]

I think they've said they'll agree an extension if a deal is agreed haven't they?

If, and only if, a deal is agreed.

Judging by what Tusk did not say, however, this likely only applies to a short extension.

A long extension is presumably still possible without the WA passing through Parliament (but would be contingent on a GE/2nd Ref being agreed by Parliament before March 29th instead).

 

[Pexbo]

Rumours in Italy are that the UK government has asked the Italian government to reject an extension.

Those rumours have probably come about from that cnut Aaron Banks lobbying the deputy PM to veto an extension.

 

[711]

Probably, has to be confirmed.

Just saw this:

France, Spain and Belgium are ready to veto a Brexit extension, the Press Association understands. The PA report goes on:

Sources have said France, Spain, Belgium and maybe Italy stand prepared to reject an extension without evidence Parliament is now ready to accept a deal and “the deadlock can be broken”.

Some member states worry there is no point to an extension as, even after 1,000 days of negotiation, Theresa May’s deal keeps being rejected and the EU cannot move any further towards the UK.

One source said: “We’re not against an extension per se but we need to have two things - first a demonstration that the situation has changed and there is a guarantee the extension is for something and second that an extension won’t be detrimental to the EU.

“Yes, a no-deal Brexit would be damaging and it’s absolutely not what we want but I think we’re ready to go to this situation because there are only two solutions - either a deal is accepted or there is no deal.

“The deal has been rejected and it keeps being rejected so if we come to no-deal then so be it.”

It is understood French president Emmanuel Macron believes Brexit is holding up his plans for radical reform of the EU and needs to be brought to a conclusion.

Isn't that more or less what Tusk has said, they will oppose an extension unless the deal's agreed?

 

[711]

If, and only if, a deal is agreed.

Judging by what Tusk did not say, however, this likely only applies to a short extension.

A long extension is presumably still possible without the WA passing through Parliament (but would be contingent on a GE/2nd Ref being agreed by Parliament before March 29th instead).

Which is what I said isn't it? I'm not getting why you and Paul keep repeating back to me what I've said. I suppose I must have worded it badly.

 

[Adebesi]

For all the many, many criticisms you can legitimately throw at May, you have to admire the size of her balls.

Though then you remember that if it all goes wrong, the little people suffer and she retires into obscurity to live out her days in comfort, her wealth presumably squirreled away offshore in various currencies. Its actually everyone else's future she is playing chicken with, not her own.

Still. Balls.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Isn't that more or less what Tusk has said, they will oppose an extension unless the deal's agreed?

More or less, but the EU leaders will be discussing it tomorrow.

 

[711]

More or less, but the EU leaders will be discussing it tomorrow.

Thanks.

 

[bleedred]

I think they've said they'll agree an extension if a deal is agreed haven't they?

Maybe not just a deal. The EU would expect a clear direction, like why does she need an extension for?. They are basically asking "What is going to change in the next two months?"

 

[MadMike]

For all the many, many criticisms you can legitimately throw at May, you have to admire the size of her balls.

Though then you remember that if it all goes wrong, the little people suffer and she retires into obscurity to live out her days in comfort, her wealth presumably squirreled away offshore in various currencies. Its actually everyone else's future she is playing chicken with, not her own.

Still. Balls.

How is she ballsy? When you’re being stubborn and determined about something that has 0 personal risk of repercussions, it’s not brave or ballsy in any way.

She will go on to become a non-executive board member to a handful of firms and earn anywhere from a few hundred thousand to a few millions per year for doing little more than giving said businesses access to politician’s she acquainted with. She’s set for a wealthy life without drama while the rest of us pay for the chaos caused by the her “balsiness”.

 

[Pexbo]

How is she ballsy? When you’re being stubborn and determined about something that has 0 personal risk of repercussions, it’s not brave or ballsy in any way.

She will go on to become a non-executive board member to a handful of firms and earn anywhere from a few hundred thousand to a few millions per year for doing little more than giving said businesses access to politician’s she acquainted with. She’s set for a wealthy life without drama while the rest of us pay for the chaos caused by the her “balsiness”.

Her husband is a senior executive of an investment firm which manages nearly £1.5trn of investments. I think she will be ok in retirement.

 

[Penna]

Those rumours have probably come about from that cnut Aaron Banks lobbying the deputy PM to veto an extension.

I don't think Italy will veto. Reading around the topic, it's a fact that the League's core heartlands in the north of Italy would be the biggest Italian losers in the event of a no-deal Brexit, in terms of exports lost.

 

[Adebesi]

How is she ballsy? When you’re being stubborn and determined about something that has 0 personal risk of repercussions, it’s not brave or ballsy in any way.

She will go on to become a non-executive board member to a handful of firms and earn anywhere from a few hundred thousand to a few millions per year for doing little more than giving said businesses access to politician’s she acquainted with. She’s set for a wealthy life without drama while the rest of us pay for the chaos caused by the her “balsiness”.

Yeah I did acknowledge that in my post. All that is on the line is her reputation, now and through history, which I imagine is a big motivator for her. But you are right, it is hardly worrying about feeding your kids.