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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
Paul the Wolf said:
Because there is no magic solution to release the UK from the backstop and the UK will be tied in because of the GFA - Remainers of course want to stay but this deal is the next best thing after a BINO because you won't totally leave the EU but neither Remainers or Brexiters like the deal.
But whatever the final outcome is, there'll be many unhappy people, probably everyone.
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While I respect your views, you are aware I take it that what the clarification does is to put emphasis on the EU as well as the UK to resolve the Irish Border issue including the framework as to how this should be done. And the consequences of lack of progress gives the UK the criterion to challenge and take to an Arbitration Panel.
IMHO, the risk of the UK being tied to the EU has reduced significantly. And that is significant.
 
Brownie85 said:
And what happens if leave wins again? Where do we go from there? Do we keep on going until the MP's get a result they're happy with?
A second referendum would cause more of a divide than the first, quite probably an irreversible divide. It's a huge mess at the moment in which absolutely no one can agree on how to move forward. An "accidental" no deal looks pretty likely in all fairness.
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Fully agree and if you look back at my previous posts you will see that I am not in favour of a second referendum. I was simply stating the agreed process.
 
Buster15 said:
While I respect your views, you are aware I take it that what the clarification does is to put emphasis on the EU as well as the UK to resolve the Irish Border issue including the framework as to how this should be done. And the consequences of lack of progress gives the UK the criterion to challenge and take to an Arbitration Panel.
IMHO, the risk of the UK being tied to the EU has reduced significantly. And that is significant.
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Yes but at this moment in time there is no solution to the Irish border issue, and all sides can try to find one, but as yet nobody knows what that is.
But at the end of the day if there is no solution that exists a hard border will go up if the UK insist on leaving the backstop.
The problem doesn't just go away and something that could be impossible to resolve may endure for eternity.
 
ERG and DUP seem to be avoiding explicitly saying they'll vote against it just that they cannot support it. How close could it be if they abstain?
 
Honest John said:
Cox is doing his utmost to sell this at the moment.
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He is indeed and I have to say that he is talking far more sense than any of the MPs.
I agree with him in that it is all about risk. The likelihood of the risk happening and then the consequence of that occurrence.
The important thing is that the risk of the UK being tied to the
Paul the Wolf said:
Yes but at this moment in time there is no solution to the Irish border issue, and all sides can try to find one, but as yet nobody knows what that is.
But at the end of the day if there is no solution that exists a hard border will go up if the UK insist on leaving the backstop.
The problem doesn't just go away and something that could be impossible to resolve may endure for eternity.
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The likelihood of no solution to the Irish Backstop has been significantly reduced because the latest agreement places the ownership of the solution fairly and squarely on the EU as well as the UK.
We are told that the EU doesn't want the Backstop as don't the UK nor Ireland. That being the case a solution seems to me to be likely.
 
saivet said:
What would be the point in abstaining?
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JRM just asked a question of the AG which was robustly answered. Perhaps it is just me but it seemed to me that JRM was just going through the motions of asking a question.
 
Buster15 said:
He is indeed and I have to say that he is talking far more sense than any of the MPs.
I agree with him in that it is all about risk. The likelihood of the risk happening and then the consequence of that occurrence.
The important thing is that the risk of the UK being tied to the


The likelihood of no solution to the Irish Backstop has been significantly reduced because the latest agreement places the ownership of the solution fairly and squarely on the EU as well as the UK.
We are told that the EU doesn't want the Backstop as don't the UK nor Ireland. That being the case a solution seems to me to be likely.
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I'm starting to get the feeling that the DUP and ERG will reject anything put in front of them in order to get a no deal scenario.
Yes the WA isn't ideal, but nothing is going to be ideal when it comes to the irish border. They know the backstop isn't going anywhere, and the likelihood of being trapped in it is low, but that's not good enough. At the end of the day, no matter what agreement is put in front of MP's, there is always going to be an element of risk to it, regardless.
 
Buster15 said:
The likelihood of no solution to the Irish Backstop has been significantly reduced because the latest agreement places the ownership of the solution fairly and squarely on the EU as well as the UK.
We are told that the EU doesn't want the Backstop as don't the UK nor Ireland. That being the case a solution seems to me to be likely.
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This is all well and good if the ERG and the DUP were acting in good faith. They aren't though. If it wasn't the backstop then they would find something else to say no to.
 
What time will they vote? I just tuned in and there's loads of empty seats in the HoC.

Just wondering because this vote seems pretty important...
 
Shinjch said:
This is all well and good if the ERG and the DUP were acting in good faith. They aren't though. If it wasn't the backstop then they would find something else to say no to.
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Sadly yes I have to agree with you.
They must remember though that they should be voting based on their electorate and not their personal ego.
 
Camy89 said:
What time will they vote? I just tuned in and there's loads of empty seats in the HoC.

Just wondering because this vote seems pretty important...
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Last time around they didnt vote till the evening, around 8 oclock wasnt it? Maybe later. Probably the same this time around, giving MPs time to digest the details in the agreement.
 
Buster15 said:
The likelihood of no solution to the Irish Backstop has been significantly reduced because the latest agreement places the ownership of the solution fairly and squarely on the EU as well as the UK.
We are told that the EU doesn't want the Backstop as don't the UK nor Ireland. That being the case a solution seems to me to be likely.
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The EU don't want the backstop either but nothing that has happened has led to making a solution more likely because there isn't one other than having the border in the Irish Sea which is the solution the EU gave in the first place and the UK rejected.

The other thing I would say, if a solution were ever to be found it would be a disaster for the UK. It's just a delayed cliff edge.
 
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Ill be pretty amazed if May resigns. I think it was The Economist that said, May's single biggest political asset is her ability to be repeatedly punched in the face and still keep getting up for more. This time wont be any different.
 
it is looking grim for may,despite being stuck in the backstop unlikely most mp's seem in their own private groove and won't budge so now we get another no vote on the deal then a no-deal vote which will get through i think and after that a probable extension to article 50 for 2 months because of eu elections
 
A few tory brexiteers who voted it down last time are now pretending there's been a meaningful change in order to vote. They should at least be honest about it.
 
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