Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
True. But because a solution to the Irish border is equally against the EU on the Irish side of the border, the disaster would equally impinge on the EU.

Anyway it appears that the ERG, Labour and the DUP are hell bent on voting against the WA.
As I mentioned earlier I despair.

Ireland will suffer of course but even without a solution the UK have to ensure they uphold the GFA, regardless of the EU agreement.

Yes desperate times that are going nowhere, so glad I don't live there any more.
 
Were they, were they really?

Seems kind of odd then that we are still heading for Brexit...

Yes, the vast majority. Tories were split relatively down the middle, but almost all Labour MP's were, and all Lib Dem and SNP MP's supported Remain.
 
Why wouldn't they change their stance then? Why is Corbyn still very much leave?

There's two ways to look at it.

One, Corbyn just doesn't want to be in the EU anyway, so it wouldn't matter what the voters thought. Obviously this flies in the face of his claims that he wants to follow the desires of his membership.

The second way is to note that a majority of Labour constituencies voted Leave, even though a majority of Labour voters did not. So it could be seen as electorally foolish to back Remain, as the Remain Labourites have nowhere else to go anyway.

Personally I think both those things are true, although the calculation that they won't lose Remain supporters is extremely foolish and poorly calculated.
 
Not really. This is what happens when you have a representative system and ask representatives to deliver something they don't want but their electorates do.
Yes, the vast majority. Tories were split relatively down the middle, but almost all Labour MP's were, and all Lib Dem and SNP MP's supported Remain.
There's two ways to look at it.

One, Corbyn just doesn't want to be in the EU anyway, so it wouldn't matter what the voters thought. Obviously this flies in the face of his claims that he wants to follow the desires of his membership.

The second way is to note that a majority of Labour constituencies voted Leave, even though a majority of Labour voters did not. So it could be seen as electorally foolish to back Remain, as the Remain Labourites have nowhere else to go anyway.

Personally I think both those things are true, although the calculation that they won't lose Remain supporters is extremely foolish and poorly calculated.


Ok, I'm eager to learn on this.

So why don't Labour go full remain and get the GE called? Surely if all the stats and figures are true, that would be a win?



Anecdotally as it is, I will add I know a depressing amount of people who voted Labour/no vote and still voted leave. I wonder, just like the Brexit/Trump votes in themselves, if all this stat watching really doesn't tell the true picture. Because after all, how wrong was everyone on this in the first place???
 
Makes you wonder why so many voted in favor of invoking Article 50.
They were scared to be one of the "enemy of the people", "traitors" etc...

That's how propaganda works. It convinces the stupid and scares the intelligent.
 
51% of the people though, on a question not an actual vote right?

So basically they are doing what they think saves their skins and nothing more? Which brings me back around again to who the hell we vote for in a GE, because frankly neither party seem fit at all. It's all rather depressing :(
 
Ireland will suffer of course but even without a solution the UK have to ensure they uphold the GFA, regardless of the EU agreement.

Yes desperate times that are going nowhere, so glad I don't live there any more.

Some MP'S are stupidly acting out tribalism.
I have to say that you are probably right. They are intent on voting against everything not because it is the right thing to do but because of bravado.

Britain used to be recognised for its sense and ability to compromise.
Sadly no longer.
 
Ok, I'm eager to learn on this.

So why don't Labour go full remain and get the GE called? Surely if all the stats and figures are true, that would be a win?

Anecdotally as it is, I will add I know a depressing amount of people who voted Labour/no vote and still voted leave. I wonder, just like the Brexit/Trump votes in themselves, if all this stat watching really doesn't tell the true picture. Because after all, how wrong was everyone on this in the first place???

A lot of Labour people still fear that by going against the 2016 vote they'll be seen as anti-democratic. Their logic is that most Labour Remainers will stick with the party anyway because there's no viable alternative. A lot of key Labour constituencies opted for Leave, and they worry that going against Brexit entirely will alienate said people, plenty of whom are working-class voters. I find a lot of aspects of this logic flawed, especially now, but that's an altogether different conversation.

Corbyn himself is historically a Eurosceptic who views the EU as too neoliberal for his own liking. Whether or not he's an actual Brexiteer is up for debate, but he's certainly not at all passionate about the EU, and received criticism for how hard he campaigned for Remain in 2016. So some feel he's a liar who pretended to support Remain for political self-gain, whereas others say he was a Remainer but is now acting pragmatically due to what I wrote in the paragraph above.
 
Some MP'S are stupidly acting out tribalism.
I have to say that you are probably right. They are intent on voting against everything not because it is the right thing to do but because of bravado.

Britain used to be recognised for its sense and ability to compromise.
Sadly no longer.

I dunno, we're at peak stupidity currently but that's also given us a tendency to view the past through a better prism than we should. The Major, Blair and Brown administrations were riddled with incompetence at times, and many of the compromises made then were done to placate Eurosceptics to an extent that eventually led to Brexit.
 
51% of the people though, on a question not an actual vote right?

So basically they are doing what they think saves their skins and nothing more? Which brings me back around again to who the hell we vote for in a GE, because frankly neither party seem fit at all. It's all rather depressing :(

If any of this farce was about the good of the country, the UK would not be in the mess it now finds itself in.
 
Ok, I'm eager to learn on this.

So why don't Labour go full remain and get the GE called? Surely if all the stats and figures are true, that would be a win?



Anecdotally as it is, I will add I know a depressing amount of people who voted Labour/no vote and still voted leave. I wonder, just like the Brexit/Trump votes in themselves, if all this stat watching really doesn't tell the true picture. Because after all, how wrong was everyone on this in the first place???

In our FPTP, constituency based system, it depends on the dispersal of Labour remain and leave voters rather than absolute numbers. I imagine the concern among Labour strategists is that, if they endorse remain, they might push their vote share in London seats up from a winning share to a huge majority, but at the same time lose some Labour voters in marginal Northern and Midlands areas and risk losing the seats.
 
A lot of Labour people still fear that by going against the 2016 vote they'll be seen as anti-democratic. Their logic is that most Labour Remainers will stick with the party anyway because there's no viable alternative. A lot of key Labour constituencies opted for Leave, and they worry that going against Brexit entirely will alienate said people, plenty of whom are working-class voters. I find a lot of aspects of this logic flawed, especially now, but that's an altogether different conversation.

Corbyn himself is historically a Eurosceptic who views the EU as too neoliberal for his own liking. Whether or not he's an actual Brexiteer is up for debate, but he's certainly not at all passionate about the EU, and received criticism for how hard he campaigned for Remain in 2016. So some feel he's a liar who pretended to support Remain for political self-gain, whereas others say he was a Remainer but is now acting pragmatically due to what I wrote in the paragraph above.
He didn't want to do a Miliband from indyref and lose England as well as Scotland
 
51% of the people though, on a question not an actual vote right?

So basically they are doing what they think saves their skins and nothing more? Which brings me back around again to who the hell we vote for in a GE, because frankly neither party seem fit at all. It's all rather depressing :(

The vote was technically advisory, but no major politician was arguing against implementing the result before the vote. So doing so would've always gone down poorly, no matter how they tried to spin it.

The bigger problem was that the question itself was incredibly vague and didn't define what sort of Brexit we'd be undertaking. Hence Brexiteers were able to project their own varying visions onto the question. And it's clearly ridiculous that a narrow win for Brexit should mean we get the hardest of Brexit's imaginable. The reverse of that would've been Cameron using a narrow Remain win as a mandate for full-on federalism. Which would've had Brexiteers screeching with horror.
 
51% of the people though, on a question not an actual vote right?

So basically they are doing what they think saves their skins and nothing more? Which brings me back around again to who the hell we vote for in a GE, because frankly neither party seem fit at all. It's all rather depressing :(

People often say that the government should also be representing the 49% remain vote in Brexit discussions but that works for party politics too so i find the idea that either party would just pick a remain/leave position as a bit wishful. For both parties a soft brexit is the compromise, unfortunately the PM is too scared of the UKIP threat to not just given to the far right within her party.
 
Some MP'S are stupidly acting out tribalism.
I have to say that you are probably right. They are intent on voting against everything not because it is the right thing to do but because of bravado.

Britain used to be recognised for its sense and ability to compromise.
Sadly no longer.

Agreed, this could go on for years and parliament would not agree.
There has to be a free vote and politicians voting for the best of the country, but that is probably asking too much of the politicians.
 
Not really. This is what happens when you have a representative system and ask representatives to deliver something they don't want but their electorates do.
Hmm... Somehow I still think this needs testing. Be that 2nd ref (preferably) or GE...
 
He didn't want to do a Miliband from indyref and lose England as well as Scotland

Problem is though that the Scotland/England comparison doesn't really work in that regard. The SNP already had a much more solid base in Scotland than UKIP did in the north of England. UKIP hadn't come close to winning a single seat; the SNP had basically already taken Glasgow at Holyrood in 2011, and had pretty much been making steady gains on Labour for the most part of a decade. Indyref gave them the catalyst to go on and annihilate Labour in 2015, yes, but Labour's problems up here ran a lot deeper than that, and 2015 would've probably gone poorly for them no matter what. Indeed, while it's something I'd probably need to see data to verify, I suspect the SNP would've done a lot better up here had Labour not been led by Brown, who was more well-liked up in Scotland for obvious reasons than down south.

Had Corbyn hypothetically gone full-blown Remainer, his popularity would've potentially been dented a bit in the north, but not to the point where it'd have actually cost him seats he already had a 30% advantage on. Especially considering UKIP collapsed, and the Tories remain toxic in such areas. These areas voted Leave, sure, but many of them narrowly voted Leave - if there's a 45% Remain vote in said area, and most of those Remainers want to vote for you, then you've basically got the seat in the bag provided it's not an absolute two-horse race.

Most of Labour's voter demographic was primarily voting Remain in the Brexit referendum. But indyref saw key Labour areas/voter demographics opt for a Yes vote (Glasgow, young people etc). The two cases were quite different.
 
Problem is though that the Scotland/England comparison doesn't really work in that regard. The SNP already had a much more solid base in Scotland than UKIP did in the north of England. UKIP hadn't come close to winning a single seat; the SNP had basically already taken Glasgow at Holyrood in 2011, and had pretty much been making steady gains on Labour for the most part of a decade. Indyref gave them the catalyst to go on and annihilate Labour in 2015, yes, but Labour's problems up here ran a lot deeper than that, and 2015 would've probably gone poorly for them no matter what. Indeed, while it's something I'd probably need to see data to verify, I suspect the SNP would've done a lot better up here had Labour not been led by Brown, who was more well-liked up in Scotland for obvious reasons than down south.

Had Corbyn hypothetically gone full-blown Remainer, his popularity would've potentially been dented a bit in the north, but not to the point where it'd have actually cost him seats he already had a 30% advantage on. Especially considering UKIP collapsed, and the Tories remain toxic in such areas. These areas voted Leave, sure, but many of them narrowly voted Leave - if there's a 45% Remain vote in said area, and most of those Remainers want to vote for you, then you've basically got the seat in the bag provided it's not an absolute two-horse race.

Most of Labour's voter demographic was primarily voting Remain in the Brexit referendum. But indyref saw key Labour areas/voter demographics opt for a Yes vote (Glasgow, young people etc). The two cases were quite different.
it's not safe northern seats, it's the marginals across the country which matter. if corbyn did what the remain campaign wanted, go out there hand in hand with david cameron, labour would have lost credibility with his biggest support group: people who really fecking hate the tories. it would have killed his biggest draw - a life long to commitment to telling the tories to suck his dick
 
The vote was technically advisory, but no major politician was arguing against implementing the result before the vote. So doing so would've always gone down poorly, no matter how they tried to spin it.

The bigger problem was that the question itself was incredibly vague and didn't define what sort of Brexit we'd be undertaking. Hence Brexiteers were able to project their own varying visions onto the question. And it's clearly ridiculous that a narrow win for Brexit should mean we get the hardest of Brexit's imaginable. The reverse of that would've been Cameron using a narrow Remain win as a mandate for full-on federalism. Which would've had Brexiteers screeching with horror.

Indeed. If the original question had been ‘Should the UK leave the EU, the Single Market and the Customs Union’ I’d bet anything it would have lost badly. Even prominent Leave leaders like Daniel Hammon were saying shit like ‘Absolutely no one is talking about leaving the Single Market’. Then somehow this became that all Leave voters wanted out of everything.
 
May's realised that she's in big trouble:

_105991324_mediaitem105991323.jpg
 
Indeed. If the original question had been ‘Should the UK leave the EU, the Single Market and the Customs Union’ I’d bet anything it would have lost badly. Even prominent Leave leaders like Daniel Hammon were saying shit like ‘Absolutely no one is talking about leaving the Single Market’. Then somehow this became that all Leave voters wanted out of everything.

Should have also included, do you want your mobile phone bill to quadruple when you go on holiday.
 
Indeed. If the original question had been ‘Should the UK leave the EU, the Single Market and the Customs Union’ I’d bet anything it would have lost badly. Even prominent Leave leaders like Daniel Hammon were saying shit like ‘Absolutely no one is talking about leaving the Single Market’. Then somehow this became that all Leave voters wanted out of everything.
Not sure i agree, i dont think the majority of Brexit voters care about the distinction tbh. Out means out, no more immigrants etc.

I think the original question provides wriggle room for a soft Brexit, which i think is where we are headed after tonight.
 
Telegraph:

So what will Theresa May do tonight in event she suffers defeat over meaningful vote?

Hearing rumours from good sources - not verified yet - she could announce she is requesting short A50 extension

Thinking is it averts damaging defeats and buys her time

Let's see...
 
Can’t see the Commons letting her get away with that, after the crap she’s been pulling lately. Expecting MPs to try and take control instead. What they actually do with it though, god only knows..
 
At this moment a backstop against May would have been handy.