Currently the most likely result.
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- Thread starter Silva
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Currently the most likely result.
And the likelihood of that actually going ahead? I mean.. won't MP's etc just block that in Parliament or can't they?
That's exactly how I see things panning out. From a spectator point of view it's fascinating but for the sake of the UK I also think that no deal is a real possibility and some people don't seem to realise how close they are to it or how bad it will be.
The legal default is no deal, I'm afraid.
Only by agreeing her deal or withdrawing A50
There is only two way to block it, cancel Brexit or strike a deal with the EU.
Even less likely than the WA being voted through.
They could in theory but its not enough to be united in opposition to something (no deal Brexit), to actually stop it they need to unite FOR something. That is what, at this point, they seem utterly unable to do. Whether it is May's deal, cancel Brexit, the Norway model, whatever. If any one thing could muster enough votes for MPs to say, this is what we will do, then no deal would be averted. But the only thing they can unite behind is a fantasy that isnt on offer. Which is no use to anyone.
Optimists might argue, at the 11th hour, when crisis is literally moments away, they will manage to agree on a course of action. But given the distance between many of them at this point, it is hard to see that happening.
Why do you say that when in your first sentence you say that you agree that a no deal will be rejected.
Pound has fallen and DUP rumoured not to be taking the deal
The vote on no deal is totally meaningless - to stop no deal there has to be a deal or cancel brexit.
At the moment my no deal likelihood meter is at 99.9%. Hopefully something will change.
It isn't totally meaningless because it is one of a package of 3 votes. It is then followed by the vote to request extension of A50 which is almost certain to be voted for.
Yes I fully understand that the EU would have to agree to this.
In the (likely) event they say no then the only option would be a second referendum.
What time is the vote tonight (UK time)?
The no deal vote is meaningless. The extension vote can be voted on but as there is no consensus in parliament as to which alternative direction to go the EU will almost certainly reject it.
Not even sure a referendum would be approved by parliament and even that would only solve anything if Remain won.
So at the end of the day it's no deal or Remain - because the only possible deal available had been rejected.
Which is why I don't share either your opinion that you have to give in to May's brinkmanship today, or that the No Deal vote is pointless.
It might become pointless, because the risk of a No Deal Brexit through incompetence is so high, but there is an actionable, unilateral way in which Parliament can ensure that No Deal is not an option.
Constitutionally, I would be fascinated to know what the ramifications would be if MPs voted to shelve No Deal and then allowed the countdown to expire. Probably nothing as our system's so fecked, but you live in hope.
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And what happens if leave wins again? Where do we go from there? Do we keep on going until the MP's get a result they're happy with?
A second referendum would cause more of a divide than the first, quite probably an irreversible divide. It's a huge mess at the moment in which absolutely no one can agree on how to move forward. An "accidental" no deal looks pretty likely in all fairness.
It's tabled for 7pm but you'll have speeches etc so probably know the result about 8pm.
May concludes her cabinet meeting with the words "today is the day"
But if parliament have control over the future negotiations including possibly staying in the CU or SM....
What is the unilateral way to stop no deal?
Revoke A50.
She'll get her 'deal' through i reckon.
Wouldn't that depend on what's on the ballot paper? If it's Mays deal or remain then you'd pass May's deal. The logic behind a second referendum is that we now know more about the outcome than we did before, that wouldn't be the case with subsequent repeated referendums so there's a clear distinction.
Yes but that's what I was saying, to stop no deal either there has to be a deal or you cancel brexit.
The issue is though, is that there's no majority for a second referendum in parliament, and i'd imagine, there's no real desire for one in the country either (most likely wrong on that, i really don't know for sure). Labour could back a second referendum, but i'd imagine there would be quite a few that would abstain or rebel against it, i think 40 or so MP's were rumoured to be dead against it.
There's no majority for anything it seems, and the government won't call a GE or revoke A50, so are they deliberately pushing for no deal? The whole thing is an absolute mess
Yes, I know. But that means the No Deal vote isn't pointless, because it is something Parliament does have control over.
If they feck it up from there, which is a possibility, then that's one thing, but it's not like Canute trying to stop the tide from coming in.
Honestly, what I'm more confused about is Brexiteers who are keen for a deal rejecting this one on (if we're being honest) pretty invented grounds.
This Time with Theresa May
I agree with you there.
All we hear is "no deal is unacceptable" and "it'll be disastrous" yet they have a deal on the table that they won't accept, but they don't want no deal either.
Labour reject it because it doesn't meet their 5 (or is it 6) requirements - but theres no majority for their version of brexit in parliament. I understand the backstop is an issue, but nothing can be done on our future relationship until the deal is passed.
If your abstaining at this point you should be fired immediately
Because there is no magic solution to release the UK from the backstop and the UK will be tied in because of the GFA - Remainers of course want to stay but this deal is the next best thing after a BINO because you won't totally leave the EU but neither Remainers or Brexiters like the deal.
But whatever the final outcome is, there'll be many unhappy people, probably everyone.
I agree, but that's what I don't understand. The opposition of Remainers makes sense; we have a better deal so why do we want a worse one? In many respects there's a bit of perverse logic to No Deal, too, as long as you're happy to rip up the GFA. At least, those Brexiteers are happy to admit that their hatred of foreigners trumps any kind of actual economic argument.
But it's those Brexiteer MPs who profess to want a deal, but won't vote for this one I don't get. They're either idiots, if they think they can get something better, or lying. Possibly both.
Looking more like Fyre Festival with each passing day
The only difference being the organizers won’t end up in jail
The only difference being the organizers won’t end up in jail
But taking parliament faction by faction.
ERG don't want a deal.
Labour whether they're remain or leavers have been told to vote against it.
DUP - well it's the DUP
SNP/Lib/Tory Remainers - against because they want to Remain
Tory's who will vote for the deal.
That covers most of them.
See I knew I was right to compare the two!
It's mad how a leader of this country to come out and straight up lie to the whole nation and not be investigated by some sort of legal entity.
Not sure this has actually happened, if I am wrong I would love to see that footage.
I mean it's implicit in their argument, because that's the only way that you can make it a good idea.