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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

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Out of curiosity, do remainers here want to see this deal passed or rejected? Obviously it would secure Brexit but it is also the UK's best chance of avoiding hard brexit. Given how remote the chances of Brexit being cancelled are in any scenario, do you not take the loss now and prevent the far more likely disaster of the worst case scenario?
 
sullydnl said:
Out of curiosity, do remainers here want to see this deal passed or rejected? Obviously it would secure Brexit but it is also the UK's best chance of avoiding hard brexit. Given how remote the chances of Brexit being cancelled are in any scenario, do you not take the loss now and prevent the far more likely disaster of the worst case scenario?
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Only on the last day if it comes to that but this isn't last chance saloon for the withdrawal agreement and there's plenty of time to vote on other directions first
 
NinjaFletch said:
I just have a feeling the Brexiteers (inc Labour ones) will take it as a 'win' (despite knowing for well it's a fudge) and Tory Remainers will fall in to line at the last second because of some misguided belief that voting through the deal and 'ending uncertainty' is sensible.

Hopefully the numbers aren't there, but I'm not as confident as I would be if May had come back completely empty handed as opposed to carrying gift wrapped empty boxes.
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Adisa said:
May has already presented all sides with a way out. Think parliament will take it .June/July is the real cliff edge where your scenario might likely play out.
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Yeah i think she might sneak it.. the key could be the DUP.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Do you still expect Brexit has a chance of being cancelled when clearly both parties want it to pass through?
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I think it's a more realistic possibility than you're allowing for, yeah. It's obviously a pretty risky endeavour, but if May can't get this through Parliament then I find it difficult to believe there's much that could except either a) a softer Brexit that Labour could back (a preferable option anyway) or b) a referendum.
 
Adisa said:
I'm saying she'll lose because she's given parliament and out (delay). Then June/July becomes the real cliff edge where she's going to probably win.
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Ah ok, misread your post.

I think MPs will be "pragmatic" and accept it for "the good of the country/party" and "deliver on the peoples mandate" etc
 
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NinjaFletch said:
I think it's a more realistic possibility than you're allowing for, yeah. It's obviously a pretty risky endeavour, but if May can't get this through Parliament then I find it difficult to believe there's much that could except either a) a softer Brexit that Labour could back (a preferable option anyway) or b) a referendum.
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A softer Brexit could be negotiated after accepting this agreement during the transition period and parliament could control that. Don't see a referendum being allowed by either party.
Although leaving I believe is insane unless Brexit is cancelled altogether, I think this is the best option.
With her losing this could make no deal almost a certainty.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
The sensible thing would be to take the deal and negotiate the future relationship thereafter but... there are are so many different factions in the HoC all with their own agenda, none of them are for the good of the country.
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I completely agree with that. The key issues is what the Attorney General says about whether the additional assurances wording can be legally implemented.
I await the answer but it would seem ridiculous to have got these right at the eleventh hour for them not to be.

It may well not be exactly what leave voters wanted, assuming they actually knew, but the most important stage is the future relationship with the EU.
 
I have long believed that when Theresa May loses her 'meaningful vote' for a second time, she will revoke A50 then fall on her sword saying "I did my best, time to go" and that will be that, Brexit finished. Chaos in British politics to follow!
However in recent days and after listening to JRM talk last night about the "law of the land" taking over on the 29th March, and listening to so many people in the HoP (overwhelmingly so)saying a No deal' cannot happen and then I think of United's result on Wednesday, when equally all football people wrote them off...I am beginning to think the unthinkable, No deal will happen because nobody thinks it possible, when in fact it is the only thing that is pre-ordained to happen, by law, is a No deal exit!

Hope I'm wrong... but the hairs on the back of my neck are beginning to twitch! Anyone else in this mind set?
 
Maticmaker said:
I have long believed that when Theresa May loses her 'meaningful vote' for a second time, she will revoke A50 then fall on her sword saying "I did my best, time to go" and that will be that, Brexit finished. Chaos in British politics to follow!
However in recent days and after listening to JRM talk last night about the "law of the land" taking over on the 29th March, and listening to so many people in the HoP (overwhelmingly so)saying a No deal' cannot happen and then I think of United's result on Wednesday, when equally all football people wrote them off...I am beginning to think the unthinkable, No deal will happen because nobody thinks it possible, when in fact it is the only thing that is pre-ordained to happen, by law, is a No deal exit!

Hope I'm wrong... but the hairs on the back of my neck are beginning to twitch! Anyone else in this mind set?
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According to the Guardian, revoking A50 would likely require a vote in parliament, which lends credence to the "no deal by accident" scenario.
 
Maticmaker said:
I have long believed that when Theresa May loses her 'meaningful vote' for a second time, she will revoke A50 then fall on her sword saying "I did my best, time to go" and that will be that, Brexit finished. Chaos in British politics to follow!
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That's naive. You're effectively saying May would choose to destroy the Tories to save the country.
 
sullydnl said:
Out of curiosity, do remainers here want to see this deal passed or rejected? Obviously it would secure Brexit but it is also the UK's best chance of avoiding hard brexit. Given how remote the chances of Brexit being cancelled are in any scenario, do you not take the loss now and prevent the far more likely disaster of the worst case scenario?
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Its like chosing between a power drill to the kneecap or a machette to the hand. I dont want either but am resigned to either one happening.
 
Maticmaker said:
I have long believed that when Theresa May loses her 'meaningful vote' for a second time, she will revoke A50 then fall on her sword saying "I did my best, time to go" and that will be that, Brexit finished. Chaos in British politics to follow!
However in recent days and after listening to JRM talk last night about the "law of the land" taking over on the 29th March, and listening to so many people in the HoP (overwhelmingly so)saying a No deal' cannot happen and then I think of United's result on Wednesday, when equally all football people wrote them off...I am beginning to think the unthinkable, No deal will happen because nobody thinks it possible, when in fact it is the only thing that is pre-ordained to happen, by law, is a No deal exit!

Hope I'm wrong... but the hairs on the back of my neck are beginning to twitch! Anyone else in this mind set?
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No deal is much more likely than no Brexit anyway. A useless government and opposition are leading us there together.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
A softer Brexit could be negotiated after accepting this agreement during the transition period and parliament could control that. Don't see a referendum being allowed by either party.
Although leaving I believe is insane unless Brexit is cancelled altogether, I think this is the best option.
With her losing this could make no deal almost a certainty.
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It could, but not with May in charge which you guarantee by voting though her deal.

Personally, if I were you and was insulated from the effects of Brexit to a degree I'd be rooting for the pure drama that would be: May's deal being voted down, MP's rejecting no deal, and the EU rejecting an extension. The day it dawned on MP's that the only way to satisfy their vote on No Deal would be to revoke A50 would be amusing, if not terrifying for those of us who would have to deal with them argue that one out.
 
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Adisa said:
That's naive. You're effectively saying May would choose to destroy the Tories to save the country.
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Nobody's going to come out of this smelling of roses, but both major parties, for different reasons, are teetering on the brink of busting apart. The Tories however have been fighting the EU fight internally for years and they have a great instinct for survival, so as long as May goes and is perceived by the general populace to be doing the decent thing, they will retain power with a new, probably euro-sceptic leader who says "well that didn't work but the referendum result still stands so we dust ourselves down and 'go again".

Its not really naïve, probably unlikely, but not naïve it could work.
 
Wow, Cox says the legal risk remains the same. No way it passes now.

In my letter of 13 November 2018, I advised that the protocol [ie, the backstop] would endure indefinitely in international law and could not be brought to an end in the absence of a subsequent agreement. This would remain the case even if parties were still negotiating many years later, and even if the parties believed that talks have clearly broken down and there was no prospect of a future relationship agreement.

I also advised that in the specific case that situation was due to the EU’s want of good faith and best endeavours, because of the difficulties of proof and the egregious nature of the conduct that would be required to establish a breach by the EU of those obligations, it would be highly unlikely that the United Kingdom could take advantage of the remedies available to it for such a breach under the withdrawal agreement.

I now consider that the legally binding provisions of the joint instrument and the content of the unilateral declaration reduce the risk that the United Kingdom could be indefinitely and involuntarily detained within the Protocol’s provisions at least in so far as that situation had been brought about by the bad faith or want of best endeavours of the EU.

It may be thought that if both parties deploy a sincere desire to reach agreement and the necessary diligence, flexibility and goodwill implied by the amplified duties set out in the joint instrument, it is highly unlikely that a satisfactory subsequent agreement to replace the protocol will not be concluded. But as I have previously advised, that is a political judgment, which, given the mutual incentives of the parties and the available options and competing risks, I remain strongly of the view it is right to make.

However, the legal risk remains unchanged that if through no such demonstrable failure of either party, but simply because of intractable differences, that situation does arise, the United Kingdom would have, at least while the fundamental circumstances remained the same, no internationally lawful means of exiting the Protocol’s arrangements, save by agreement.
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Maticmaker said:
Nobody's going to come out of this smelling of roses, but both major parties, for different reasons, are teetering on the brink of busting apart. The Tories however have been fighting the EU fight internally for years and they have a great instinct for survival, so as long as May goes and is perceived by the general populace to be doing the decent thing, they will retain power with a new, probably euro-sceptic leader who says "well that didn't work but the referendum result still stands so we dust ourselves down and 'go again".

Its not really naïve, probably unlikely, but not naïve it could work.
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Beyond the legality of it, it seems to me there's very political reason to do it. There are enough idiots that think No Deal is a fantastic idea that the country wouldn't see it as 'doing the decent thing' as a whole. The Tories would haemorrhage voters to UKIP and a significant enough chunk of Tory MPs (backed by an overwhelmingly pro-Brexit membership) would cause havoc. May's only political quality is that she's a Tory party loyalist. She would never, ever do something so divisive as to risk ripping the party apart. If she gave the slightest toss about anything else we wouldn't be in this mess.

The only realistic route to A50 revocation over the next two weeks is the one I outlined above: MPs voting themselves in to a corner that the only way out of is calling it off. It is, I suspect, incredibly unlikely.
 
Fair play to Cox then, i thought he'd sell himself out but he's stood firm.
 
Adisa said:
That's naive. You're effectively saying May would choose to destroy the Tories to save the country.
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She might.

If her deal crashes tonight then I think she has to go because the two subsequent votes - plus Coopers amendment on Parliament taking control will effectively make her a by-stander.

A straightforward leadership election won't be tolerated and this time a VofNC in the government might get through.

So think about a GE in this situation. What on earth will the two main parties campaign on?

The thing is that the remain vote is simple and solid, it is not split. There's 16 million that don't have varying ideas of 'how to remain' where as the leave vote has many views regarding 'how to leave'.

The headbangers would want to go on a WTO ticket and not win many seats. Moderates may take the view that a soft Brexit is pretty-much pointless.

This new independent party - if it throws it's lot in with the Lib Dems, pulls more defectors from the two main parties then campaign's on a withdraw A50 ticket could be catapulted into power.

Just speculation I guess but nothing would surprise me now.
 
Kentonio said:
Wow, Cox says the legal risk remains the same. No way it passes now.
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He had no choice to be honest if he values his professional integrity and the judgement of posterity. But good to see nonetheless as I feared he might be browbeaten into less explicit wording.
 
The Firestarter said:
Why is June the real cliff edge ?
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It's not, really.

It's an assumption that if HoC voted No May Deal, No No Deal, Ext over the next three days then they would seek a short term extension which the EU would only grant to before the European elections in June.

Until that's agreed it's a bit of a pipe dream.
 
How can May possibly continue now?

The stage managed deception does not seem to have even lasted until Lunch time...

Just when you thought this process couldn't get any more farcical.
 
That revelation does mean that May and her cabinet have purposefully misled the public over the legal power of the new text doesn't it? She received no such legal advice to back up her words.

She should be held to account for that
 
If an army of farages seems likely to enter Brussels, I think the EU will just straight no deal your asses.
 
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