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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
Surely the point is that there are no real benefits to leaving and a huge number of hugely damaging things - none of which were considered or at least widely understood at the time of the referendum. A second referendum (not that they should ever be used for non-constitutional issues - but that horse has bolted) is the only even half sane or sensible option, yet almost nobody in power wants to suggest it. If there was just one senior politician with even an ounce of conviction, intelligence and morality they would be able to sell it easily. I hate them all.
 
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I'd like to think this would unite the country in to guy fawksing parliament and putting some heads on spikes but sadly all it will do is divide everyone further. They will get away with it like they always do.
 
Everyday that pass there is less and less chance of No deal. Whatever the politicians babbles, UK is not ready for a No Deal scenario and, if No Deal would be a disaster (at least short term, No Deal without contingencies would be a catastrophe IMO. May's deal will get more and more support the closer the date is and revoking A50 as well. It will be a matter of what they prefer, but No Deal is almost impossible currently
 
4bars said:
Everyday that pass there is less and less chance of No deal. Whatever the politicians babbles, UK is not ready for a No Deal scenario and, if No Deal would be a disaster (at least short term, No Deal without contingencies would be a catastrophe IMO. May's deal will get more and more support the closer the date is and revoking A50 as well. It will be a matter of what they prefer, but No Deal is almost impossible currently
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It really isn't.
 
Wibble said:
It really isn't.
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No deal will be always a possibility, of course. But even if they don't go for May's deal, on the 28th even the politicians will say: "Shit is getting real" and they will pull out A50. if not would be insanity
 
4bars said:
Everyday that pass there is less and less chance of No deal. Whatever the politicians babbles, UK is not ready for a No Deal scenario and, if No Deal would be a disaster (at least short term, No Deal without contingencies would be a catastrophe IMO. May's deal will get more and more support the closer the date is and revoking A50 as well. It will be a matter of what they prefer, but No Deal is almost impossible currently
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I'm not so sure, I think a no deal is much more likely at the moment than it has been.
 
4bars said:
No deal will be always a possibility, of course. But even if they don't go for May's deal, on the 28th even the politicians will say: "Shit is getting real" and they will pull out A50. if not would be insanity
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I get the feeling that a lot of the Tories seem to think the EU will cave at the 11th hour, they may or they may not i have no idea.

But either way i think the Tories care more about their party and staying in power than they do the country and it's people. If May and the Tories withdrew article 50 there are 17m remainers who probably wouldn't vote for them again for a long time if ever.
 
stevoc said:
I get the feeling that a lot of the Tories seem to think the EU will cave at the 11th hour, they may or they may not i have no idea.

But either way i think the Tories care more about their party and staying in power than they do the country and it's people. If May and the Tories withdrew article 50 there are 17m remainers who probably wouldn't vote for them again for a long time if ever.
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You are right, Or they think that the EU will cave in or is what they want to sell. But they can pull it out at the last minute.

AAnd you are right again, they are only interested on staying power, but they even know that Staying or No deal is a lose-lose situation. if they will pull out, some they will not vote them relatively short-medium term. It they go for unprepared no deal, the short term catastrophe could wipe them out forever. That is why I think they will end going for May's Deal (maybe a little bit of make up). but even them between:

Lose their power: revoking A50

vs

Lose their power and feck up UK (at least short term) with serious and visible consequences: Unprepared No Deal

They will choose the former.

With unprepared No Deal, the initial chaos will be of a magnitude, that they would need to go to GE where they would be wiped out
 
4bars said:
No deal will be always a possibility, of course. But even if they don't go for May's deal, on the 28th even the politicians will say: "Shit is getting real" and they will pull out A50. if not would be insanity
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I think you overestimate our politicians.
 
Wibble said:
I think you overestimate our politicians.
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They are corrupt (like everyone's politicians) and dumb (most of all as well) and powergrabbing cnuts (like all of them again). But 87.33% are sane
 
stevoc said:
I get the feeling that a lot of the Tories seem to think the EU will cave at the 11th hour, they may or they may not i have no idea.

But either way i think the Tories care more about their party and staying in power than they do the country and it's people. If May and the Tories withdrew article 50 there are 17m remainers who probably wouldn't vote for them again for a long time if ever.
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I might be wrong, but I think we only had the initial vote as Cameron had to keep the more extreme right of his party happy.

Since then, May's main priority has been coming up with a deal that stops the Tory party from tearing itself apart. A deal that is actually good - or less damaging - for the UK as a whole has always been secondary to this objective.
 
Reiver said:
I might be wrong, but I think we only had the initial vote as Cameron had to keep the more extreme right of his party happy.

Since then, May's main priority has been coming up with a deal that stops the Tory party from tearing itself apart. A deal that is actually good - or less damaging - for the UK as a whole has always been secondary to this objective.
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No you're correct mate, old pig fecker Cameron tried to solve some internal Tory party squabbling with a national referendum on EU membership. He fecked it all up royally and then pissed off first chance he got and left others to clean up his mess. But May made a complete clusterfeck of it all, which is an achievement in itself really.

I also agree May has been trying to please everyone and keep the party together for the last 2 years which is why her deal was so overwhelmingly rejected. Virtually no one on the Brexit or remain side liked it.

I don't know whether the Tory party survives Brexit and a potential no deal. But i think the party might be done long term, they have the ERG which is a party within their party who obviously have their own agenda.
 
"I'm stockpiling putrefying piles of rubbish optimism":
Guardian said:
Officials warn of putrefying piles of rubbish after no-deal Brexit
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Yet more Brexit cheer!:
Guardian said:
‘Dickensian diseases’: gout, whooping cough and scarlet fever on rise
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Guardian said:
'Everything’s leaving': Sheffield's high streets gutted by vacancies
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Gaurdian said:
Showers of red-hot dog shit heading your way
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The below popped up on my twitter feed, regarding trade/trade deals if No Deal happened and how Article 24 that’s spouted by Rees Mog and his cronies is totally irrelevant in our situation. The guy also speaks in ways that anyone could understand. It’s 15mins long though. Hit the soundcloud link.

 
madzo2007 said:
The below popped up on my twitter feed, regarding trade/trade deals if No Deal happened and how Article 24 that’s spouted by Rees Mog and his cronies is totally irrelevant in our situation. The guy also speaks in ways that anyone could understand. It’s 15mins long though. Hit the soundcloud link.

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From what i understand for Article 24 to be used there would have to be an agreement in place with the EU. Does this guy confirm that?
 
stevoc said:
From what i understand for Article 24 to be used there would have to be an agreement in place with the EU. Does this guy confirm that?
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It’s from about 4mins in he talks about it. He says that Article 24 has been superseded and it was for when two countries are setting up an agreement which is almost complete they together go to the WTO to present the schedule of implementation and ask the WTO to allow them to reduce/get rid of tariffs while they work on the final details.

Also he mentions the record for setting up a trade deal was 11 months and the EU/Canada trade agreement took 9 years. Obviously EU/UK could be quick in trade deal terms due to them ‘knowing’ each other.
 
Stanley Road said:
Its hardly a poor comment when it seems staying in an eu country is the holy grail. Moving is a choice, deciding to stay in the uk is a choice, staying and moaning is also a choice. If you see a better life for you and your family abroad, your choice to stay is bewildering. I left behind family and as my parents got sick and eventually died, I went home every week. Would it have been any better for them if I lived in the uk, no. So yeah, if you hate it so much, what is it in life you actually want? If it's to stay in the uk and be unhappy but close to friends and family then fair enough. If you think your family would be better off abroad then move.
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Interesting window into your mind right there, fair enough...
 
4bars said:
No deal will be always a possibility, of course. But even if they don't go for May's deal, on the 28th even the politicians will say: "Shit is getting real" and they will pull out A50. if not would be insanity
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At some point we need to stop expecting people to suddenly become sane when they've been insane for the past 3 years. As terrible as no deal will be, it will be a terrible decision made by a government that is defined by terrible decisions, so sadly, has to be expected.
 
TheGame said:
Oh look, more evidence of Vote Leave breaking rules:

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YEAH BUT WE GOT OUR COUNTRY BACK!

But, to those more learned than I, how much BS has to be uncovered before the result/re-run become possible? Or to we too far in the shit now?
 
Tibs said:
YEAH BUT WE GOT OUR COUNTRY BACK!

But, to those more learned than I, how much BS has to be uncovered before the result/re-run become possible? Or to we too far in the shit now?
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Brexit means brexit

No one cares how much dirt has been dug up. Much like trump followers, people just close their ears and only hear what they want to hear
 
stevoc said:
I get the feeling that a lot of the Tories seem to think the EU will cave at the 11th hour, they may or they may not i have no idea.

But either way i think the Tories care more about their party and staying in power than they do the country and it's people. If May and the Tories withdrew article 50 there are 17m remainers who probably wouldn't vote for them again for a long time if ever.
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All political parties care more about achieving power and then staying in power, otherwise what's the point? The public and in particular their voters are just 'fodder' to be used or discarded as necessary, a means to an end. Yes, you may get individual politicians who will sacrifice-self for the right decision, but who determines what's right? Or as Pilot reportedly said to Christ "Truth... what is that"?
Lots of people voted in the referendum who had either never voted before, or had not voted in a long time, simply because it was a binary choice, Remain or Leave, it was not about Remain, half in and half out, or Leave, but only with a deal. It is still that binary choice, leave... and then deal, or Remain and cancel Brexit... there are no other choices!
 
madzo2007 said:
It’s from about 4mins in he talks about it. He says that Article 24 has been superseded and it was for when two countries are setting up an agreement which is almost complete they together go to the WTO to present the schedule of implementation and ask the WTO to allow them to reduce/get rid of tariffs while they work on the final details.

Also he mentions the record for setting up a trade deal was 11 months and the EU/Canada trade agreement took 9 years. Obviously EU/UK could be quick in trade deal terms due to them ‘knowing’ each other.
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Cheers mate couldn't listen to it right now, will give it a listen later.

So basically as i thought the UK would need the EU to agree to go along with article 24. So thats a non starter as an alternative to getting around the backstop.
 
Maticmaker said:
All political parties care more about achieving power and then staying in power, otherwise what's the point? The public and in particular their voters are just 'fodder' to be used or discarded as necessary, a means to an end. Yes, you may get individual politicians who will sacrifice-self for the right decision, but who determines what's right? Or as Pilot reportedly said to Christ "Truth... what is that"?
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Well sadly you are right about all parties and most politicians, but when a situation like this arises we could at least hope that the people whose job it is to do whats best for the country might actually do that instead of just taking whatever actions they think will keep them in power and improve their chances of future re-election.

But then we're talking about the Tories here so that sort of thinking is probably way too optimistic.

Maticmaker said:
Lots of people voted in the referendum who had either never voted before, or had not voted in a long time, simply because it was a binary choice, Remain or Leave, it was not about Remain, half in and half out, or Leave, but only with a deal. It is still that binary choice, leave... and then deal, or Remain and cancel Brexit... there are no other choices!
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A lot of leave voters might have thought thats what it meant, but i don't think that was ever going to be the case. I could be wrong but the actual procedure for leaving the EU and activating article 50 gives you 2 years to enable you to negotiate a withdrawal agreement. It would be better for any country to leave with a deal in place instead waiting 2 years to leave and then trying to negotiate one that could take 2 or more years anyway.
 
unchanged_lineup said:
Yeah, that was an especially shit comment. Extremely disrespectful.
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Indeed but then maybe it's asking too much of a member of the current Government who was put in charge of negotiations with the EU agree a deal and find a solution to the Irish border problem to read a 32 page document that was very relevant to the negotiations he was conducting.
 
Tibs said:
YEAH BUT WE GOT OUR COUNTRY BACK!

But, to those more learned than I, how much BS has to be uncovered before the result/re-run become possible? Or to we too far in the shit now?
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Vast numbers of people refuse to accept that their vote could have been influenced by others. That’s why when Russia is mentioned, you hear them saying stupid shit like ‘No Russian told me how to vote!’. A re-run is basically impossible.
 
stevoc said:
Cheers mate couldn't listen to it right now, will give it a listen later.

So basically as i thought the UK would need the EU to agree to go along with article 24. So thats a non starter as an alternative to getting around the backstop.
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Having a free trade agreement has nothing at all to do with the backstop.

The EU has a FTA with Canada but there is still a border.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Having a free trade agreement has nothing at all to do with the backstop.

The EU has a FTA with Canada but there is still a border.
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Art.24 of the GATT is about custom unions and/or free trade agreements. The reason it's useless here is simply because you need to have an actual draft of an agreement to show to the council for Trade in Goods.

Edit: I mentioned it months ago.

JPRouve said:
What he said is inaccurate, you can't just say that you are working towards a free trade agreement, you need to have an official interim agreement which means that you have a plan and schedule for the formation of a custom union/free trade area within a reasonable length of time.

Then there is the problem that according to WTO and art.24 a free trade area is the substitution of two or more custom territories for one, now people probably imagine what Ireland's custom territory is, so Rees-Mogg is playing with people ignorance.
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I wonder how Brexit voting Sunderland will be feeling about Nissan’s announcement today.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Having a free trade agreement has nothing at all to do with the backstop.

The EU has a FTA with Canada but there is still a border.
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Fair enough mate but i was just referencing that the likes of Farage and Mogg have been throwing this idea of using Article 24 around as a way to get around the need for the backstop. And how it couldn't be used the way they seem to think it could.
 
stevoc said:
Fair enough mate but i was just referencing that the likes of Farage and Mogg have been throwing this idea of using Article 24 around as a way to get around the need for the backstop. And how it couldn't be used the way they seem to think it could.
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Yes , I was more adding to your point..
 
Sigma said:
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How awful for the people of Sunderland. Having to look each other in the face everyday knowing you voted to make yourself poorer. This isn’t the imposed devestation of government policy they have previously experienced. They did this to themselves.
 
rpitchfo said:
How awful for the people of Sunderland. Having to look each other in the face everyday knowing you voted to make yourself poorer. This isn’t the imposed devestation of government policy they have previously experienced. They did this to themselves.
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Schadenfreude.
 
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