What do these 48 letters say? Are they form letters or is it stuff like 'out with the hag!'
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- Thread starter Silva
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The first part of the vote is the confidence one and if she get 49% she goes. It means that 51% have rejected her out-of-hand as party leader.
Then the leadership thing kicks in but each candidate has not been subject to a confidence vote of the whole party. So they start from a notional ranking position. Votes are cast and those with the lowest disappear the the remainers are voted on and if your guy/gal gets voted off you need to pick your next best candidate. Until 2 are left then the wider party members get to vote.
May will win tonight's vote. We'll not be getting a second referendum or alternatively, Brexit is cancelled. Going forward if Brexit goes ahead then the UK will be minus Scotland in a few years and more border backstop disputes.
You keep pushing this idea but that's not the immediate actions available at all.
Take no deal off the table and you still have A50 extension with or without a GE to find another deal and there are other deals they're just not better. You still have A50 revokation with or without a referendum/GE. You have a referendum over Mays Deal or Remain, the most likely i think.
Just because the deals won't pass parliament doesn't mean these paths won't be explored.
The previous referendum on EU (or Common Market) membership was back in 1975, and the outcome was around 2 to 1 in favour. In the last referendum, older voters were identified as a key component of the victory for Brexit. It seems as if those who had originally been so in favour of membership had changed their minds.
If we do actually leave, and being outside the EU becomes the new 'normal', then it would come as no surprise if support for the EU went down in the younger demographic.
Brilliant! I'm putting the site on my favourites list.
What do you mean, keep calling for referendums.
Now the facts are on the table, it is only fair that people have the opportunity to have another go and make the right choice.
Do you think that once a government is elected, that's that, you are stuck with them until they are beaten in a war? You do realise, that's exactly how Nazi Germany started?
The facts were on the table before the vote. The lies being peddled by Boris, Farage etc. are no different than any other general election and they’ll be no different in a second referendum. Cameron’s stability turned out to be the crock of shit that led to this mess.
That’s also really not how Nazi Germany started at all.
If you leave I would see a good few years of austerity and poor economic performance. Increased unemployment in the country would lead to large scale emigration and you losing your younger demographic. If it's a big downturn you could see a big swing to the right or the left.
Yeh, but you need to try and get that phrase in a post, from time to time.
Yes. And the EU have said they will extend A50 to accommodate a May's Deal vs Remain referendum. I don't think they will do that if No-Deal is on the ballot.
The point is your example of Greece doesn't work simply because we don't have to join the Eurozone because we are a much stronger country than Greece. Then this is the real point you need to understand what really messed greece up is not the EU, it was it's horrible problem of governments constantly coming in and lying about the countries national debt so they could continue to spend happily without any sanctions. Then they got called on it and went to get loans, but because their levels of trust were soo low they had to take horrible interest loans which crippled and indebted the country. Once the economic crisis happened Greece would then obviously be put in a worse situation as their two biggest industries which are tourism and shipping go down the drain during any recession.
So the EU is not responsible for it. The actual people running the country are responsible. The country was run badly and by greedy people thats what happens normally to ruin most political and economic organisations.
Good call. WWN and fake showbiz news on twitter always guarantee a laugh!
I don’t get the concept of why a second referendum would be so contentious - it seems to be a line of argument coming from hard Brexiteers who fear June 2016 was their only chance and cynical Tory and (to a lesser extent) Labour politicians trying to hold their disparate party coalitions together. A second vote, based on real choices rather than fantasies, is the equivalent of a statutory cooling off period after you got pissed on holiday and bought a timeshare. It’s all the more important in this case because a return to the pre-Brexit status quo would be impossible if we leave.
If Leave win again, knowing what we know now, then I think that would be the end of the matter, however awful the consequences.
I'm thinking towards the end result and I'm thinking of the current MPs who are in parliament on all sides.
You could have A50 revocation or extension - but who is going to do this?
You could have a referendum - No deal/May's deal/Remain - who's going to allow this? No deal has to be part of any referendum.
I don't see another deal.
I don't see either what extending A50 does either.
The only alternative I see to the situation is to cancel Brexit and quickly but nobody's going to do this.
This is all assuming that the only outcome to all this is Remain which none of the major parties want.
Tory Xmas party tonight should be a humdinger
What happens if remain wins by the same margin this time? Best two out of 3? First to 5?
May wins tonights vote. Get's 'clarification' from the EU on the backstop - and the whips go back to work on her deal.
Then you still have a strong role for the anti-EU contingent who can then come with a decent proposal to leave the EU in the future. Given how almost evenly split we are, the question is never going to go away. Problem Brexiteers would have in the long run is that they are likely to die off as time goes on.
No, this second referendum would be the end of the matter either way as it would be based on concrete alternatives rather than, as in 2016, one concrete option vs [insert your own fantasy here].
Look at this fecking cnut.
I find it so hard to call though. Even if it did go to a second vote.
A second referendum could be a 2 stage run-off style vote. First round options are No Deal, May's Deal, Norway Style and Remain and the top 2 options go into a run-off.
Get Noel Edmonds to present, while we're at it.
I'm not sure why no deal has to be part of any referendum? It wasn't part of the first one, in every debate they said they'll get a deal and no deal wasn't the target. Boris and Mogg don't have the numbers to force it on and i really don't see May adding it although crazier things happen.
If you're going to respect the will of the referendum it shouldn't now be an additional option.
If Mays deal passes a referendum MPs will vote for it. No MP would dare do otherwise.
There absolutely won’t be.
So it is quite possible that a leader with the support of 49% of MPs could be replaced by one with an initial support of only 15% of MPs. Furthermore the current leader might have the support of 80% of the party membership, but wouldn't be allowed to stand, and the two who did go to a membership vote might both be well down a list that the membership might have voted for if they got to choose who could stand. Bleeding shambles.
Assuming May's deal won't get through parliament, why not hold a final referendum on this with the two options being No Deal Brexit or Remain?
It's disingenuous to suggest that the EU bears no responsibility for the situation in Greece. The EU wanted to make it as easy as possible for countries to join the Euro, and even though they established rules designed to ensure that a country's economy was sufficiently robust, they made little attempt to validate the submission made by countries proposing to join. Did anybody seriously believe that the Greek economy met the criteria? Indeed, it would come as no surprise if it transpired that the EU provided assistance to Greece to ensure its submission passed the tests.
I agree that the specific example of Greece wouldn't be applicable to the UK, but the principle of putting central control ahead of local democracy remains relevant.
I agree with you regarding the economic mismanagement in Greece, and the binge the country went on when it suddenly had a combination of a strong currency (compared to the Drachma) and benign economic conditions. I'm not saying that they don't deserve to suffer as a result of that imprudence. Nevertheless the people of Greece voted for a government committed to take one path, and the EU imposed an entirely different one. My point is about democracy, not economics.
Because that would be way too sensible for these clowns.
The fact that the original card didn't clarify the terms under which the we'd leave the EU has handed Farage and the Brexiteers the means of talking up the desire for no-deal
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Just to clarify, your reasons for voting to leave are, at a basic level ... "Take back control", right?
I'm not convinced she's going to win the confidence vote actually.
Whilst it seems the most likely outcome, if we've learned anything in the last few years it's that basically anything can happen; Corbyn becoming Labour leader, Trump getting elected, Britain voting leave.
Wouldn't be massively surprised if she goes.
Whilst it seems the most likely outcome, if we've learned anything in the last few years it's that basically anything can happen; Corbyn becoming Labour leader, Trump getting elected, Britain voting leave.
Wouldn't be massively surprised if she goes.
That would be the logical conclusion but Labour will complicate things by claiming Corbyn would use his superior negotiating skills and wisdom to gain a magical wonder-deal which should be part of the vote, despite the evidence to the contrary. Great contribution Jeremy.
The 2016 referendum just asked if the UK should stay in or leave the EU but it didn't say whether there was any type of deal. Many people had many different opinions of what leaving the EU meant. Even now, two and a half years later, you can see that people still think it means many different things.
But no matter what any of us think there is a large enough proportion of Brexit voters who want no deal because they've been told that leaving with just WTO is nothing to be frightened of. Don't see how a government / parliament can deny that to the voters.
So you are choosing to blame the EU and not the Government?
As I said bring in an example of a country that is comparable to the UK. You might aswell not have a central government in the UK according to you, you might aswell have each county have their own government.
It's completely thoughtless mentality.
No - I hate that phrase. It's misleading, and I don't ever recall having used it.
I believe in the concept of the nation state, and of democratically elected institutions accountable to the people they serve. My view is that the direction of travel of the EU is not compatible with either (see longer post earlier).
It will never be between no deal and May's deal. A simple motion for revoking Article 50 will ensure the cliff edge is entirely avioded and we remain if it was coming close to crashing out with no deal. Opposition parties plus Conservative rebels have the numbers for that and there are scores of others that will join them to avoid no deal.
Which nation?