Brexited | the worst threads live the longest
- Thread starter Silva
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Oh god, I guess if that's what it takes...
A quick worry as I've been tuning this out for my own sanity and ignoring due diligence:
If May loses the vote it's likely that a brexiteer will take over the party reins no? If that's the case, and May's deal isn't brought before/doesn't pass Parliament, then surely all the new leader has to do to get a hard Brexit is stall until article 50 naturally concludes in the spring.
Can someone explain why this isn't true.
I think she has a lot of support across the country and the voters will not forget this deed from a bunch of lazy, gutless, self-indulgent tossers.
Nope. You bought a Brexit turkey, still full of guts, but inedible. In gross terms yes, the UK has made a significant contribution to the EU budget. This is because it is one of the four largest economies in the EU. But the UK has consistently paid less than France and Italy, not to mention Germany. As a share of gross national income, the UK has paid the least of all member states into the EU budget. This is principally down to Thatcher's 1985 UK rebate. So yes, all countries contribute to the EU, and all countries get benefits. You have to subtract one from the other...
The outcome of the agreement was inevitable in my view. Prior to the negotiations the only thing I couldn't work out was how they solved the Irish border and they came up with the backstop. Otherwise it is exactly as I thought.
If the UK want to leave, they can't have the benefits even though Brexiters apparently expect them without any of the conditions.
May well be a poor PM but I don't see what any other PM could have done and even though she was supposed to be a Remainer, firstly she clearly dislikes foreigners and secondly I think she has actually tried to do her best for the UK.
Her mistake is pretending to the British people that any other outcome was possible.
Getting rid of May will probably make things worse. No deal becoming almost certain imo.
If May goes, is there any possibility of her being replaced by someone who is pro a second referendum?
I don’t think there are enough hard brexiteers in the Tory party for a hard Brexit candidate to win the vote. They are a vocal minority. The problem is that the Tory party is split 3 ways on Brexit so they can never get any of their options through on their own.
Don't see anyone having the guts to offer a second referendum and moreover any of the main players who actually want one.
Just chatting about the Tory shitshow in the office and conversation turned to the referendum. Receptionist piped up 'what do we even get from the EU for our money?' I started reeling off free movement, reciprocal healthcare, billions in trade, workers rights, statutory sick pay... She actually ran away when I asked her if she had received her annual tax statement as I just got mine and my EU contribution was less than £50
These benefits are what everyone should have been talking about in the remain camp, and what we should be talking about now. Do you have a list of them somewhere?
I think it will be another middle ground candidate.
A vote of no confidence would pass the house to prevent this from happening or a bill could be put forward by the opposition to withdraw or request extension of A50
And if any new leader did call a 2nd ref - another 48 letters would go in pronto.
Nicky Morgan may put herself forward on such a basis but i don't think she'd carry enough support.
If this situation came you'd hope enough moderate Conservatives would put the country above their party and back a Vote of No Confidence to allow a GE or second Referendum
It presumably wouldn't matter. If they're voted in on the basis of a second referendum they'd then also win any leadership challenge bemoaning this
Art 50 was not just conceived for the UK but for all nations that wanted to leave. UK has the peculiarity of the GFA.
The UK are still leaving the EU on 29th March which was what was voted for.
The problem is leaving the CU and SM which was known before the referendum but everyone ignored and should have been thought about more carefully before having the referendum and the truth told to the electorate.
For sure.
Watching the Tories RIP each other apart is fascinating.
Maybe Cameroon should return as project leader.
Wow imagine if that actually happened.For the GFA to continue there has to be regulatory alignment both sides of the border, that basically means a customs union.
But the problem isn't just the technical terms of the agreement, a hard border going up would symbolically be a step backward.
This does a decent job of explaining it: http://ukandeu.ac.uk/good-friday-agreement-why-it-matters-in-brexit/
Do you think this chaos will change whichever leader is in place?
I think the only way a 2nd referendum happens is in the event of a GE. It would have to be a manifesto pledge from one or more of the parties. And they would have to win the election standing on that. So who can win? and Who would be prepared to stand on it?
Course not, i would just like to see him burn again.
You are quite right. The problem is that most people in the rest of the UK (this is how it appears) - particularly those in power - do not give a toss about Ireland or NI and have been totally tripped up by the border issue because none of them gave it a single thought. The fact that there still appear to be calls for a no-deal from many sadly proves that now they do know about the border, they just do not care what happens over here and would happily plough on ahead with a no-deal knowingly destroying our economy in NI and endangering our hard won peace.
As somebody from a broadly unionist background (though I am fairly neutral about it all generally) I have to wonder if other people from my own background will start realising that the rest of the UK couldn't give a feck about us and will start to question 'our precious union' which only appears to be there to further the interests of (little) England. Hense why calls for a united Ireland are growing.
Joking aside I do think they'd be better off under Cameron. I don't know if he'd united them but he was certainly stronger, and a much better orator than May.
That would be fantastic. Northern Ireland is nothing but a financial drain on the rest of the UK and a headache we do not need.
Yet whatever replaces her would be even worse.
At least you are honest. The UK is clearly close to breaking into pieces if this is the prevailing view. It will be Scotland next and then the English and Welsh can toddle on themselves.
replacing her won't change anything.
the deal won't be renegotiated. and the tories won't vote for the deal, clearly. so it will still be back to either no deal or a remain. surely another vote is inevitable, as no one is going to lead us to a no deal without any further say by the general public - surely?
the deal won't be renegotiated. and the tories won't vote for the deal, clearly. so it will still be back to either no deal or a remain. surely another vote is inevitable, as no one is going to lead us to a no deal without any further say by the general public - surely?
We need Sam Alardyce to stabilise things. Or the political equivalent.
If I was Corbyn I'd seriously be considering putting no confidence motion in this morning
Cheers guys. For some reason censure motions hadn't occurred to me. A total sh*tshow but it may work. Not sure about a bill for an extension. Wouldn't any such proposal be treated as a private members bill and subject to filibuster?
My concern about this is based on the mechanics of a Tory leadership election. A brexiteer only has to make it into the final 2 before being presented to the wider membership. Seems to me there's enough euroskepticism in the PCP for that to be fairly likely. The wider Tory vote is still very Brexit oriented. According to the latest Yougov 43% want to leave with no deal and a further 17% list that outcome as a second preference (pg 16).
edit - the deal in question being specifically May's and the question phrased as a 3 way referendum (remain / deal / leave)
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If people want to leave I'm absolutely fine with it only being England/Wales, losing Scotland and Northern Ireland is hardly going to be this cutting blow. In particular the latter costs billions every year and issues constantly rear their heads due to the history with Ireland.
At some point you have to ask if it's worth holding on to.
Exactly the kind of attitude that makes every nation in the UK hate England.
So the UK is of no value to you whatsoever and the other nations within the UK are of no benefit currently to England and actually are nothing but a drain on resources. Well fair play to you to being honest I guess.
Perhaps it is best if we go our separate ways then, and we'll see how well they all do outside of the shackles of evil old England.
I'm sure it will be glory and prosperity all round.