Brexited | the worst threads live the longest
- Thread starter Silva
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I'm sorry you've lost me. Your argument that Labour should not oppose the government's Brexit policy in order to oppose the government's Brexit policy is that the Conservatives, were they in opposition, would 'go for the jugular' and oppose the government's policy?
I'm sure you're right, but I can't see the relevance to the original discussion.
If the Uk won't play ball what can they do, the UK caused this problem and they have to solve it, the EU have given the solution ,albeit temporary, to the UK , now the UK have to accept the backstop until they can come up with a better solution. But the Leavers don't care.
A FTA doesn't solve the border problem though and if a FTA is agreed in under 4 years I'd be amazed.
The only vaguely rational option is to can the whole thing and never speak of it again.
I'm not seeing anything in here that answers my question. What can possibly change with the backstop? The back stop is the border. Either it exists or it does not. Either Ni is in the customs area or not.
The border has always been simple: either you stay in, or you go, that's it, there's no option C.
Exactly. Bring on Poch.
There is no solution to the border beyond NI staying in the customs union. It's all that's available now, and in the foreseeable future.
Perhaps you could expand on your reasons for disagreeing rather than just flinging insults?
It is also the only solution there has ever been for the issue.
That is essentially what I said.
yes I have mentioned that in my post.
There needs to be some NI holding position if FTA talks go past December 2020. May's deal would pass (and allow progress to start onthe FTA) if the EU allow uni-lateral withdrawal from the backstop once it has been invoked. I don't see why they can't allow that. The UK are hardly likely to go crashing out onto WTO rules at that point in time.
Great, and .. what about the border?
It will never be the same unless the UK stays in the CU or 'a' CU whatever that is. There is a border there now. There is different currencies and VAT rates and I do believe there is electronic registration of goods or tracking of vehicles that are of interest. It should be technologically possible to make the border as open as it is now - whilst still maintaining a border.
In that scenario the backstop rules would continue to apply. They will only stop if the UK exercises it's 'uni-lateral' right to withdraw from the backstop which would effectively be dropping onto WTO rules. I'm saying that won't happen that late stage. Having worked for 2 years towards an FTA the UK will most likely stay in the backstop for a little longer. The NI people and the DUP will by that time have got used to the idea and there will probably be technological solutions in the offing at that stage.
With a rebel yell, she cried...
I think it's remarkable that after everything we've heard and read from Brexiters over the last few years, people still don't get why the Irish government would be insane to trust the UK's government with the ability to unilaterally end the backstop agreement.
Ahh the mysterious 'technology' - nobody seems to be able to identify what this technology is or how it would work in practice (or indeed how much it would cost or how long it would take to implement) but it is rolled out as the magical solution. If it really is a solution then nobody should worry about the back-stop as clearly it will never be used due to the border problem being resolved.
'Probably be technological solutions in the offing at that stage' - well I'm reassured then thanks. Also really lovely that you think we would 'get used' to the thought of a hard border unless the magical technology can be developed. As long as it doesn't directly affect your life we can just get used to it?
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Can the authorities of either side currently stop vehicles if they needed to?
I did not say that anyone would get used to a hard border. Read what I said carefully.
Yes Police can stop vehicles sure. They set-up a road block.
I read that you meant we would get used to the thought of a hard border unless technology can be developed because what else is there aside from the back-stop continuing forever.
That is the only way May's deal get's through. WTO will happen before any 2nd referendum. So either there is some movement on the ability to end the backstop or its WTO and a hard border.
Or it is a second referendum and no Brexit - don't forget that option which is increasingly likely.
Nope. I meant the DUP (who hate the backstop) and the people of NI would have got used to the transition situation by then. Remember that is a no border-change situation. The FTA talks will have progressed such that an end was in sight. So the thought of using the backstop (at that point in time) would not be as unpalatable to the DUP and others. And they would feel even more comfortable about it because we had agreed a uni-lateral withdrawal right at the beginning i.e. now. So the most like situation would be that the UK would not use that right because at that point, in that situation, it would be daft to do so.
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It will not happen. Any government of any colour that allows that to happen will be doomed for a generation. The only way that it may get away with it would be if the result is the same. Then what's the point?
We are talking about rearranging protocols of a land border to ensure people see the GFA as still working whilst accommodating new customs arrangements. Versus democratic betrayal of 17.4 million people.
Labour is majority Remain, why would us remaining doom them for a generation?
At least 30% of their electorate voted Leave. That's a big chunk to placate.
Well it doesn't really matter if Labour is 90% remain (which it isn't) because that loss of 10% means they won't be in power for decades. They'll struggle to pick up that many dismayed tories
What are these technological solutions, though? Honestly you sound just as bad as the hardcore Brexiteers and their motto of "ah well I'm sure we can figure something out at some point, using.. science, and technology and all that shit". Any potential technology to deal with over 300 road crossings on the border would cost an absolute bomb to research and implement, billions and billions that would probably be even more of a waste than Trump's wall, which is probably fitting given the similarities between Brexit and him being voted in. And who's going to pay for it? The EU won't, so will the UK? Will they be the ones to spend all this money to fix an issue that shouldn't have to be fixed in the first place?
There is only one solution, Northern Ireland stays in the CU and there is no border. Anything else is pure, nonsensical hyperbole that doesn't exist in any feasible form in any part of the world. To claim otherwise is pure ignorance and wishful thinking.
Personally I think the backstop is a stupid idea because it simply delays the inevitable, which is for NI to stay in the CU or not. A 50/50 question that must at some point be dealt with.
It's a unique situation and will require a unique solution. I'm not a Brexiteer and I abhor them playing fast and loose with my livelihood as well as that of the people I work with. My pension has already been decimated at the mere notion of no-deal crash-out.
However, May's deal does have some potential because it is talking not about Canada or bloody Norway, but a new UK/EU FTA. Such a deal in itself should lessen the need for the border to be hard and I do not think that it is beyond the wit of man to make it look like there is no visible change - need being the mother of invention and all that. But yeah sure. We ain't buying the solution off the shelves of the Microsoft shop just yet.
I think it's safe to say they will be no unique solution though. Nobody will pay for it. Nobody will be able to figure it out. It's in or out, always has been and will continue to be. The backstop just delays it.
Also why does the deal lessen the need for the border to be hard? It involves the EU changing the rules of the custom union across all fronts, how can that possibly work? It will not.
Do you honestly have any confidence in the government implementing any IT project never mind strategically developing means that don't currently exist?
I'm left thinking exactly what has prevented the government from going out for proposals on this in the last 2 years?
And 41% of Tory voters from 2015 voted Remain. Yet apparently leaving isn't going to doom the party of hard Brexit for a generation?
Don't know why people listen to her. She's wasting everyone's time.
Well it depends where they go doesn't it? By doomed i assume we're talking electability and not voter base.
Not many Tories have shown up for this emergency debate i thought they'd be in for a good kicking of the prime minister but it doesn't look like it