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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
I think this is where Labour are. They want a Norway arrangement. Too early to come right out and say that now. Better wait until the reality of crashing out hits. A Norway offer in a GE would pick them up a good few SNP seats. Some Libdem votes and a lot of 'Remain' constituencies.
The funny thing is that's exactly May's plan as well. Wait until the reality of No deal hits then they will vote for my deal. She has the added advantage of being in government.
I can see a scenario where parliament votes on May's deal more than once.
 
The funny thing is that's exactly May's plan as well. Wait until the reality of No deal hits then they will vote for my deal. She has the added advantage of being in government.
I can see a scenario where parliament votes on May's deal more than once.
It makes sense in a strange way that this is why every Labour MP struggles to find words to describe what their Brexit plan is. They want to say Norway but they can't right now.
 
The Tories have been lying through their teeth about NHS funding for years. From the Kings Fund..

uk-nhs-spending-as-a-percentage-of-gdp.jpg

They haven't though. They were vocal about cuts in public service (including NHS) from the moment they took power, in order to bring the deficit under control. Only now they have announced increased funds for the NHS budget, which will only hit the NHS coffers after 2020. The period is for 2020-2024, from what I read of the budget. Hence I inserted the caveat "theoretically, based on last budget".

I mean don't get me wrong I think NHS should have been the very last service to get hit by cuts after the 2008 crash and all, but the suggestion that Tories lied about it doesn't line up with what I understood they were saying back in 2009. They said they will not sell it off, not protect it from cuts.
 
If the ERG crew don't get their letters in soon, their credibility would be gone forever.
Clear MPs have been lying to Mogg and Baker about putting in letters.
No honour among thieves. :lol:
 
Anyone seen Boris Johnsons '6 point plan to earn a better Brexit' ?

From The Daily Mail...

Boris Johnson's six point plan to earn a better Brexit
1 Jettison decision for European Court of Justice to have jurisdiction over the UK/EU withdrawal agreement.

2 Scrap the Northern Ireland backstop. Instead, both sides should simply commit to avoiding a hard border in Northern Ireland and find the solution later.

3 Appoint a 'No Deal' minister who will 'accelerate our preparations to exit on World Trade Organisation terms'

4 Pursue a free-trade deal on Super-Canada lines.

5 Withhold at least half of the £39 billion until that deal has been agreed.

6 Insist that our Government finally gets behind Brexit, with 'enthusiasm and belief - all of which have been woefully lacking'.

2 & 6 are my personal favourites. feckin clown. :lol:
 
You most certainly can. I wouldn't call it engineering but rather, doing nothing to maintain stability makes a crash inevitable.
The markets will crash if there is no deal. That is an inevitability.

I think we're playing loose with the definition of crash here.
You think there'll be another crash 2008 style? Or Black Wednesday style? I don't think so, personally.
 
It makes sense in a strange way that this is why every Labour MP struggles to find words to describe what their Brexit plan is. They want to say Norway but they can't right now.
Why should it be hard for them to say Norway? This is my problem with Labour. Before the referendum, Farage, Boris and Gove were championing the Norway model. All of a sudden, it's taboo.
Corbyn and co should have been on the airwaves as soon as the referendum finished, championing the Norway model. It would have given them serious credibility in the brexit voice right about now, since that would have been the only credible plan that can pass parliament.
A party I support should not be in the "end FoM at all cost" group.
Immigration has poisoned politics in this country.
 
If the ERG crew don't get their letters in soon, their credibility would be gone forever.
Clear MPs have been lying to Mogg and Baker about putting in letters.
No honour among thieves. :lol:
Yep. They are in danger of turning into a busted flush. And, I think that May has mapped all this out. She is a better politician than I thought. If she gets this through the UK will be out of the EU next March. They will never be able to hold the whip hand over a Tory government again because there will be no EU legislation to consider. Be careful for what you wish for I say.
 
I think we're playing loose with the definition of crash here.
You think there'll be another crash 2008 style? Or Black Wednesday style? I don't think so, personally.
Crash has degrees of severity. It doesn't have to be 2008 level. Without doubt, there would be some sort of creash if we don't have a deal by March 29. The £, house prices, markets etc.
 
Yep. They are in danger of turning into a busted flush. And, I think that May has mapped all this out. She is a better politician than I thought. If she gets this through the UK will be out of the EU next March. They will never be able to hold the whip hand over a Tory government again because there will be no EU legislation to consider. Be careful for what you wish for I say.
I hate May as much as the next guy but it would be an incredible piece of political manoeuvring if she gets this deal through. Would definitely come at serious economic cost though.
 
They haven't though. They were vocal about cuts in public service (including NHS) from the moment they took power, in order to bring the deficit under control.

They've been coming out publicly saying that they're investing record amounts into the NHS and they've been claiming it for years. It's one of those things that are technically true if you take the figure, ignore inflation, ignore demands on its service and so on. In other words its a fecking lie, and they know it.
 
I hate May as much as the next guy but it would be an incredible piece of political manoeuvring if she gets this deal through. Would definitely come at serious economic cost though.
Unlike the rest of them, she actually gets her head down, works hard and studies the problem. The job from the get-go was a poisoned chalice and no solution was ever going to be ideal.

Personally I think that she probably got more than several calls from Barnier et al with words to the effect that there was no way on Gods earth that they were going to do any kind of meaningful business with David Davis, or Boris Johnson. She was also personally petitioned by very powerful business leaders. For the good of the country she (and the civil servants) stepped in. What we have on the table is the result of that.
 
So why did we just have 2 and a bit years of complete blithering and incompetence?
Because Davis was in charge for the most part. I think the EU just plain decided they were not going to deal with him. How many times, following a meeting, did Davis say that progress was being made only for Barnier to come out and say the complete opposite. Citizens Rights and the settlement money were easy. The main problem was NI. May and the civil servants got seriously involved after Chequers. Davis saw the writing on the wall and bailed. As did Johnson. Since then things have moved faster.
 
Rare honesty among DM readers.

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Because Davis was in charge for the most part. I think the EU just plain decided they were not going to deal with him. How many times, following a meeting, did Davis say that progress was being made only for Barnier to come out and say the complete opposite. Citizens Rights and the settlement money were easy. The main problem was NI. May and the civil servants got seriously involved after Chequers. Davis saw the writing on the wall and bailed. As did Johnson. Since then things have moved faster.

That would be Davis who was appointed by May and under her leadership the whole time, correct?
 
Crash has degrees of severity. It doesn't have to be 2008 level. Without doubt, there would be some sort of creash if we don't have a deal by March 29. The £, house prices, markets etc.

Indeed, but generally so long as public finances are not affected it's a crisis that leaves very little impact to the average Joe. Like the dot com bubble. So long as UK gilt yields remain stable and salaries keep growing at above inflation pace, I'm not that worried. A crash in the pound will cause inflation in the medium term, but that's about it.
 
In Wales it was called Do What You Want - I Don't Give A F*ck.
In Scotland it's called "Meet Brian" because we keep forgetting that our knives have Stanley written on them. We then stab the person holding the box we want and run off with it. It was cancelled last year but you can see reruns of it every Friday night outside my local.
 
Rare honesty among DM readers.

To be honest, I don't think many people (politicians first and foremost) have been frank about immigration or even entertained a discussion on it.
We probably wouldn't have been in this situation, meaning Brexit, had that happened.
 
Don't think we need Oscie.
I'm convinced Brexit is now a side issue.
There's a secret competition going on between politicians to become the most incompetent in the history of the UK and Corbyn's just edged into the lead.
For me it's a dead heat between Corbyn, May, Raab, Johnson, Davis etc...
 
For me it's a dead heat between Corbyn, May, Raab, Johnson, Davis etc...
I kind of disagree with May being in that list. She's at least takes the time to properly understand the issues and I do think that she genuinely has the country's interest at heart whereas the others most definitely do not.
 
So how is the arranging of the deck chairs on the titanic going then?

Anyone clambering for the leadership despite having just quit and passing the buck? This is just highlighting the power crazed minds of these self interested career politicians. Obsession for power despite the consequences and the humiliation of being exposed as nothing more than incompetent reality TV contestants who could not be trusted to make a tuna sandwich let alone negotiate the complexities of Brexit.
 
Indeed, but generally so long as public finances are not affected it's a crisis that leaves very little impact to the average Joe. Like the dot com bubble. So long as UK gilt yields remain stable and salaries keep growing at above inflation pace, I'm not that worried. A crash in the pound will cause inflation in the medium term, but that's about it.
When was the last time you saw UK salaries keep pace with inflation? The only time real wage growth has been lower than it is at present excluding the slumps immediately after the two world wars was the mid 19th century.
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and that's before we even get onto the 10s or even 100s of thousands who will be out of work as companies scale down their UK operations.

How will the continuing slump in the pound not compound things when the vast majority of items we consume on a daily basis are imported?

How do you figure a slump in housing prices and the ensuing negative equity will not affect the average Joe? How about the devaluation of pension funds and investments dooming people to having to work 10-15 years longer than they should, if they can find the work?

The Rees Moggs, Johnsons and Goves who have hedged their investments against a UK economic crisis will be fine but UK industry and the average Joe will be well and truly fecked.
 
I kind of disagree with May being in that list. She's at least takes the time to properly understand the issues and I do think that she genuinely has the country's interest at heart whereas the others most definitely do not.
She voted to remain in 2016 – it's what she believed was best for Britain then and I'm sure, if she didn't want to give up her shot at a place in history, she'd still admit it is now too. It remains to be seen how that place in history will be written – but I'm willing to bet "one of the weakest leaders a once strong nation has, and will ever, see" will be in the obituary.
 
They've been coming out publicly saying that they're investing record amounts into the NHS and they've been claiming it for years. It's one of those things that are technically true if you take the figure, ignore inflation, ignore demands on its service and so on. In other words its a fecking lie, and they know it.

Yeah, but I think you're clutching a bit. It's misdirection of the kind politicians of all sides engage in all the time. When the Tories came into power they were pretty vocal about reducing deficit through austerity, this cannot be argued. And their attitude towards NHS has been in line with those views. Are you genuinely telling me people who voted Tory in 3 elections, were misdirected about the Tory implementation of austerity?
 
She voted to remain in 2016 – it's what she believed was best for Britain then and I'm sure, if she didn't want to give up her shot at a place in history, she'd still admit it is now too. It remains to be seen how that place in history will be written – but I'm willing to bet "one of the weakest leaders a once strong nation has, and will ever, see" will be in the obituary.
She was never a staunch remainer though. She hated the ECHR and wanted out of that.
 
I kind of disagree with May being in that list. She's at least takes the time to properly understand the issues and I do think that she genuinely has the country's interest at heart whereas the others most definitely do not.
I don't think she called a snap election because she had the UKs best interest at heart.
 
When was the last time you saw UK salaries keep pace with inflation? The only time real wage growth has been lower than it is at present excluding the slumps immediately after the two world wars was the mid 19th century.
5847c87859a3cf22008b5cd0-1133


and that's before we even get onto the 10s or even 100s of thousands who will be out of work as companies scale down their UK operations.

How will the continuing slump in the pound not compound things when the vast majority of items we consume on a daily basis are imported?

How do you figure a slump in housing prices and the ensuing negative equity will not affect the average Joe? How about the devaluation of pension funds and investments dooming people to having to work 10-15 years longer than they should, if they can find the work?

The Rees Moggs, Johnsons and Goves who have hedged their investments against a UK economic crisis will be fine but UK industry and the average Joe will be well and truly fecked.

It's fine .

We are all in this together. Apart from all the people who pushed through Brexit so they could get even richer at the expense of all those feckwits backing them. But yeah aside from that...