Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
Zebs said:
EIRE32.

;) Who knows what'll happen up there.
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Not sure if that is a solution for right now though is it. I love how typically people always argue that it is NI, ROI and/or the GFA that needs to change dramatically rather than the idiots who got us into this mess. It's almost like they don't care at all about what happens here right?
 
I'm disappointed there's no popular satire shows anymore. This entire thing is like one big soap opera.

May is either going to have to purposefully damage the country to stay in power or she's going to have to become a traitor to her party and get Labour to vote with her. Whether Labour would is the question.
 
Sweet Square said:
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A vote ultimately doesn't really work because it's a misunderstanding of what it is - you're either voting for a deal or...nothing. Which is inherently stupid. At this point staying in the single market is clearly the only sensible option.
 
Cheesy said:
A vote ultimately doesn't really work because it's a misunderstanding of what it is - you're either voting for a deal or...nothing. Which is inherently stupid. At this point staying in the single market is clearly the only sensible option.
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Isn't it illegal for us to stay in the single market?
 
Silva said:
No, there's non-EU members in the single market. It's the faux-brexit option.
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Thought it was, as part of the many ERG amendments that passed in June.
The only reason I'm not excited about another vote is that I'm far from convinced this country would vote to stop this madness.
 
Adisa said:
Thought it was, as part of the many ERG amendments that passed in June.
The only reason I'm not excited about another vote is that I'm far from convinced this country would vote to stop this madness.
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the brexit laws are effectively worthless because they can be changed over a day or two
 
Cheesy said:
A vote ultimately doesn't really work because it's a misunderstanding of what it is - you're either voting for a deal or...nothing. Which is inherently stupid. At this point staying in the single market is clearly the only sensible option.
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Staying in the Customs Union is the most important, without it you don't solve NI and therefore there is no deal.
Listening to British news reporting drives me insane. Even Remainers keep going on about Norway.
The UK is sleepwalking to disaster.
 
Cheesy said:
A vote ultimately doesn't really work because it's a misunderstanding of what it is - you're either voting for a deal or...nothing. Which is inherently stupid. At this point staying in the single market is clearly the only sensible option.
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You could have three options -

1. Stay in EU (despite Art 50, I’m sure the EU would agree to this, perhaps with the rebate scrapped)
2. May’s deal (assuming there is one)
3. Reject May’s deal and just leave

Voters would be asked to rank them 1-3 in terms of preference. The winner would be based on the number of first and second preferences.

It would obviously not heal divisions in tbe country but would at least clarify just how badly and at what price the voters want to leave. By contrast, the 2016 vote was based on the lie of having your cake and eat it.
 
MoskvaRed said:
You could have three options -

1. Stay in EU (despite Art 50, I’m sure the EU would agree to this, perhaps with the rebate scrapped)
2. May’s deal (assuming there is one)
3. Reject May’s deal and just leave

Voters would be asked to rank them 1-3 in terms of preference. The winner would be based on the number of first and second preferences.

It would obviously not heal divisions in the country but would at least clarify just how badly and at what price the voters want to leave. By contrast, the 2016 vote was based on the lie of having your cake and eat it.
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This would be ideal, but the problem is obtaining clarification on option one. I can't see a majority for that if it's just a blank cheque. Would the EU allow us back at all? Many people would want to know about the rebate first, and possibly most important, would the EU treat us as a new member and make joining the Euro a requirement? Would the EU be prepared to hold a summit and vote on the terms before a referendum? I suspect not, and people 'being sure' wouldn't be enough for many voters, option one wouldn't win.
 
MoskvaRed said:
You could have three options -

1. Stay in EU (despite Art 50, I’m sure the EU would agree to this, perhaps with the rebate scrapped)
2. May’s deal (assuming there is one)
3. Reject May’s deal and just leave

Voters would be asked to rank them 1-3 in terms of preference. The winner would be based on the number of first and second preferences.

It would obviously not heal divisions in tbe country but would at least clarify just how badly and at what price the voters want to leave. By contrast, the 2016 vote was based on the lie of having your cake and eat it.
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We probably dont have time for that unless we revoke article 50.
 
Okay, here is another take: The problems with the borders and NI arise only if UK changes its laws (for people or goods). Right now, UK has the same laws as the rest of the EU on many issues.

Assume the following:

1. UK leaves EU in March, without a deal, but it does not change any of its laws. Ie. UK effectively still conforms to EU laws, taxes, and so on.
2. Later in 2019, UK holds a new referendum, about re-joining the EU or creating hard borders. Hopefully, people will be more informed then.
3. If rejoining wins, it applies again to the EU. If hard borders wins, well... good luck!

Is this practical?
 
CA_vampire said:
Okay, here is another take: The problems with the borders and NI arise only if UK changes its laws (for people or goods). Right now, UK has the same laws as the rest of the EU on many issues.

Assume the following:

1. UK leaves EU in March, without a deal, but it does not change any of its laws. Ie. UK effectively still conforms to EU laws, taxes, and so on.
2. Later in 2019, UK holds a new referendum, about re-joining the EU or creating hard borders. Hopefully, people will be more informed then.
3. If rejoining wins, it applies again to the EU. If hard borders wins, well... good luck!

Is this practical?
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But that wouldn't be a no deal scenario because to still follow the laws the UK would need to retain freedom of movement. It makes no sense. What you're suggesting in #1 is a soft Brexit, not no deal.
 
Massive Spanner said:
But that wouldn't be a no deal scenario because to still follow the laws the UK would need to retain freedom of movement. It makes no sense. What you're suggesting in #1 is a soft Brexit, not no deal.
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But if the UK does not change any of its laws then how will anything change? Are there any definite plans to change any particular laws right now? Can't it wait a few more months?

A "deal" means that the UK will have agreed to not change anything for xxx number of years, it is very different.
 
CA_vampire said:
But if the UK does not change any of its laws then how will anything change? Are there any definite plans to change any particular laws right now? Can't it wait a few more months?

A "deal" means that the UK will have agreed to not change anything for xxx number of years, it is very different.
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So if Mexico decide that they're going to allow free movement into the US, that'd be good right?
 
CA_vampire said:
Okay, here is another take: The problems with the borders and NI arise only if UK changes its laws (for people or goods). Right now, UK has the same laws as the rest of the EU on many issues.

Assume the following:

1. UK leaves EU in March, without a deal, but it does not change any of its laws. Ie. UK effectively still conforms to EU laws, taxes, and so on.
2. Later in 2019, UK holds a new referendum, about re-joining the EU or creating hard borders. Hopefully, people will be more informed then.
3. If rejoining wins, it applies again to the EU. If hard borders wins, well... good luck!

Is this practical?
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No, you need a contract aka a deal.
 
JPRouve said:
No, you need a contract aka a deal.
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Really?

If there is no deal, on April 2 2019, will a German national be able to fly to London? Or he will be stopped at the airport and turned back?

As I understand it, if there is no deal, everything continues as it is now until either the UK or the EU countries changes some laws, impose some travel restrictions, or impose customs duties and so on.
 
CA_vampire said:
Really?

If there is no deal, on April 2 2019, will a German national be able to fly to London? Or he will be stopped at the airport and turned back?
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Today, he would be a foreigner and will have no right to enter the territory.
 
JPRouve said:
Today, he would be a foreigner and will have no right to enter the territory.
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So you think that the German national will be turned back at the airport???

I believe you are mistaken.

There are no EU laws that apply directly as such. The EU decides on something and then each country has to implement this law into its own laws. So already the UK laws are the same as the EU laws. This will not change if the UK does not change any laws.
 
Also adding to the above, each country can close the border or impose duties, or do whatever, even while inside the EU. Any country's laws are above whatever the EU decides. Then the EU can decide to impose penalties to this country, but that's that.

An example is Hungary that closed its borders to immigrants, even if the EU directives and the Schengen agreement forbids it. The Schengen agreement is valid because each country has absorbed it into its own laws. Every country can change its own laws any time, and the only thing the other countries can do is to expel it from the Schengen area. There is no EU law that applies directly and automatically to every country.
 
CA_vampire said:
So you think that the German national will be turned back at the airport???

I believe you are mistaken.

There are no EU laws that apply directly as such. The EU decides on something and then each country has to implement this law into its own laws. So already the UK laws are the same as the EU laws. This will not change if the UK does not change any laws.
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That's not how international laws work and that's not what the EU did, these agreements are between member states and in international treaties. The status of EU citizens is an agreement between member states, that is enshrined in the treaties that the UK are repealing with Brexit, that's in part what Brexit means. They do not recognize the treaties that they signed with the other 27 members, one of these agreement is that they unilaterally grant free access to their territory to EU citizens and also that the right of these EU citizens are under the ECJ jurisdiction.
 
Gee Male said:
So if Mexico decide that they're going to allow free movement into the US, that'd be good right?
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They can't decide for the US. But they can definitely decide for themselves, for example to allow everyone from the US get into Mexico without checking anything.

Another example. Pakistan may decide to follow every EU law and directive and incorporate it into their laws. They may also decide to have the Euro as their national currency. That's fine. They can do that. Of course, the EU does not have to reciprocate.
 
JPRouve said:
That's not how international laws work and that's not what the EU did, these agreements are between member states and in international treaties. The status of EU citizens is an agreement between member states, that is enshrined in the treaties that the UK are repealing with Brexit, that's in part what Brexit means. They do not recognize the treaties that they signed with the other 27 members, one of these agreement is that they unilaterally grant free access to their territory to EU citizens and also that the right of these EU citizens are under the ECJ jurisdiction.
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I believe you are mistaken.

There are national laws and only national laws apply inside each country. The UK national laws allow people from Germany to enter under some particular requirements. This is not going to change. (Except if UK changes the laws. )
 
International Treaties mean absolutely nothing if they are not reflected into the National Laws. Only National Laws apply inside each country.

That's why Trump and the Congress can forbid some country's nationals to enter USA. Sure, there are treaties about it... but they have any practical effect only if the national law conforms.
 
CA_vampire said:
International Treaties mean absolutely nothing if they are not reflected into the National Laws. Only National Laws apply inside each country.

That's why Trump and the Congress can forbid some country's nationals to enter USA. Sure, there are treaties about it... but they have any practical effect only if the national law conforms.
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Not sure you understand how the EU works. Being part of it means you accept supremacy of European laws. Apart from that, the US is in a position of power, the UK is not. Its position is in fact incredibly weak here.
 
CA_vampire said:
They can't decide for the US. But they can definitely decide for themselves, for example to allow everyone from the US get into Mexico without checking anything.

Another example. Pakistan may decide to follow every EU law and directive and incorporate it into their laws. They may also decide to have the Euro as their national currency. That's fine. They can do that. Of course, the EU does not have to reciprocate.
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What I will say will be very oversimplified as I think you lack the most basic knowledge of how relationships between two countries (or blocks of countries) work

DO you know that UK chossed Brexit because they want to restrict Freedom of Movement?

If a German goes to London and UK applies restriction of movement (Brexit), he will be turned back.

UK can give as much freedom of movement in people, goods, services, etc...is as you say their choice. And they said ALL THE TIME that they will restrict freedom of movement.

As Mexico can't decide for US, UK can't decide for EU. So if UK goes out (Brexit) of the Customs Union, UK is out. EU could decide to give freedom of movement, freedom of goods. feck! is what actually is happening now and the EU is willing to continue like this. But if the UK doesn't want to give 1 of the 4 freedoms, the EU will not give neither the same freedom (is basically, reciprocity), but it happens that the 4 freedoms in the EU comes in a pack, you can't divide them or 0 or 4, you can't cherry pick.

So after Brexit, they can decide which freedom (and how much freedom ) can give to anyone/anything, but the EU will do the same. And without a treaty that states how much freedom of movement you can't have, there is NO MOVEMENT AT ALL. UK is blocked from the EU, nothing can't enter to the EU from the UK if the EU doesn't allow it and viceversa.

The "emegency treaty" after brexit is the WTO (You look it yourself) where the EU and the UK are part of it and is not 100% but a certain amount of freedom at a price (taxes, burocracy, etc...) so people, goods, services, capitals, will have to be controlled and to be controlled you need a BORDER.

But WTO only contemplates a few things. for example without an agreement (probably it will be an emergency one, even verbal one) 1 second after the 29th of March, the UK planes, can't fly over europe and viceversa. And that is just an example. Basically because the agreement that allows planes to fly to europe and viceversa will be burnt after Brexit
 
CA_vampire said:
I believe you are mistaken.

There are national laws and only national laws apply inside each country. The UK national laws allow people from Germany to enter under some particular requirements. This is not going to change. (Except if UK changes the laws. )
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The UK already changed the law by repealing EU treaties. Here the issue concerns the relationship between two different jurisdictions and two different territories, it's not about what happens within each jurisdiction, it's about the legal environment of transborder flux.
At the end of the withdrawal period, all the treaties signed between the UK and the EU are void, that's what triggering art.50 of the Lisbon treaty leads to but that's also confirmed by the withdrawal bill that the UK passed months ago. So when you suggest that the laws don't change it's kind of way too late.
 
JPRouve said:
The UK already changed the law by repealing EU treaties. Here the issue concerns the relationship between two different jurisdictions and two different territories, it's not about what happens within each jurisdiction, it's about the legal environment of transborder flux.
At the end of the withdrawal period, all the treaties signed between the UK and the EU are void, that's what triggering art.50 of the Lisbon treaty leads to but that's also confirmed by the withdrawal bill that the UK passed months ago. So when you suggest that the laws don't change it's kind of way too late.
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You talk about treaties. I am talking about the UK National Laws.
 
unchanged_lineup said:
Not sure you understand how the EU works. Being part of it means you accept supremacy of European laws. Apart from that, the US is in a position of power, the UK is not. Its position is in fact incredibly weak here.
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I bestow upon thee the annual prize of Understatement of the Year.
 
unchanged_lineup said:
Not sure you understand how the EU works. Being part of it means you accept supremacy of European laws. Apart from that, the US is in a position of power, the UK is not. Its position is in fact incredibly weak here.
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Yes, I know how EU works. Every country has to incorporate the EU laws into their National Laws. Otherwise they are not valid. And sometimes it takes years till they actually incorporate the EU laws into their own laws.

https://ec.europa.eu/info/law/law-making-process/applying-eu-law_en

"Each directive contains a deadline by which EU countries must incorporate its provisions into their national legislation and inform the Commission to that effect.

The Commission assists member countries in correctly implementing all EU laws. It provides online information, implementation plans, guidance documents and organises expert‑group meetings.

The Commission will take steps if an EU country:

  • does not fully incorporate a directive into its national law by the set deadline
  • might not have applied EU law correctly
"

There are multiple examples that EU countries failed to incorporate EU laws into their own laws.
 
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