She'll choose her Premiership.
Brexited | the worst threads live the longest
- Thread starter Silva
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How are you surprised at this?
wasnt she deselected? or was it some other anti-corbyn leave mp who resigned?
I've not been following Brexit closely at all, my only big interest is the impact on Ireland.
she and frank field's (labours harderst brexiteers) local parties passed a vote of no confidence which is the first step towards deselection, frank field resigned the whip and is now an independent mp but kate hoey decided to fight it
Ireland is pretty much the only thing that matters at this point, a brexit deal absent customs union would be possible if there was no gfa but it's impossible to adhere to it without remaining in the customs union. At this point it's a single player game of chicken where Theresa May has to decide if she wants to crash her car into the erg and deal with internal tory fires, or crash her car into the gfa and leave without a deal. There will be internal fires if she leaves without a deal, but tory remainers have spent the last 2 years being so spineless it's a minor miracle any of them remember how to breathe.
If it wasn't for the gfa, a preferential trade deal would be possible - trade with the eu would be still be more expensive than it is now and the uk would lose some international influence but it's not a nightmare scenario. A no deal exit is a nightmare scenario.
If there is no deal the roi will also be in the shithouse because of it's geographic location but you would assume the EU will send money it's way purely for self preservation and to prevent the UK from exerting too much pressure on the republic.
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I am not sure I understand what exactly the problem with the border will be in the no-deal case. Can you give me an example in simple terms? With cars, or pork, or some other goods.
The problem is the existence of a border, it's a political and social issue not technical.
It's funny how NI has become the be all and end all of the brexit negotiations. The government is not even pretending to care about the impact on the services and manufacturing sector.
Quite astonishing what party politics is doing to this country.
Quite astonishing what party politics is doing to this country.
Yes, I get that, but why in practice it will create a problem? And why a trade deal with the EU will make any difference?
In theory, there is a border now, since ROI is a different country. Even if it is just a line on the map, there is already a border.
You don't get it then. Look at The Troubles and the Belfast agreement.
I have already admitted I don't get it!
The question is if someone can give a simple explanation here.
And the question is what difference a "no-deal" and a "deal" makes in the NI case. In practice.
I have already admitted I don't get it!
The question is if someone can give a simple explanation here.
And the question is what difference a "no-deal" and a "deal" makes in the NI case. In practice.
Going back a few pages on this thread, there was a lot of discussion about it. There's not going to be a simple explanation here - it's very complex and no surprise that it's a huge stumbling block in negotiations.
One massive element is that if there's no deal, there needs to be a hard border, which will violate an international peace treaty (GFA). Why that matters is, basically, history that you'll have to spend time reading up on. Even aside from that, the technical implications of trying to enforce a hard border are immense.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ire...fficials-from-north-and-south-agree-1.3474246
I have already admitted I don't get it!
The question is if someone can give a simple explanation here.
And the question is what difference a "no-deal" and a "deal" makes in the NI case. In practice.
At the moment there are no physical borders on the Island of Ireland despite the fact that they are two different countries. There is no need for it because they are in the same custom and trade areas, from an international law standpoint if both territories are in different jurisdictions there will be a need for checks(Custom, sanitary, etc...) at some point, whether it is along the legal border or around the island, both of these things are against the GFA. No deal means that the GFA is effectively broken, a deal could allow to respect it.
I have already admitted I don't get it!
The question is if someone can give a simple explanation here.
And the question is what difference a "no-deal" and a "deal" makes in the NI case. In practice.
The border is symbolic of Northern Irish identity, the free movement between Ireland and Britain represents the dual identities of the previously warring factions. If you put the border back up Northern Ireland moves back into British hands to a degree. This will stoke tensions.
There is also the potential smuggling opportunities that would enable the paramilitaries to grow. The paramilitaries still exist in Northern Ireland and are still violent. They still take it upon themselves to police some areas of Northern Ireland and hand out violent punishments to criminals.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-42014557
I have already admitted I don't get it!
The question is if someone can give a simple explanation here.
And the question is what difference a "no-deal" and a "deal" makes in the NI case. In practice.
The precarious peace in Northern Ireland is based to a large degree on the 'have your cake and eat it' solution embodied in the Good Friday Agreement, whereby NI remained part of the UK while at the same time the most symbolic feature of the original partition - the border, which was heavily militarized during the Troubles - became essentially irrelevant in terms of movement of people and goods. This arrangement was facilitated by the fact that both the ROI and the UK are EU members. The implementation of a hard border will violate the spirit and if I'm not mistaken some of the details of the GFA and threaten the foundation of the hard-won peace.
But actually nothing is broken. The Brexit is a new situation that obviously wasn't foreseen in the GFA. So, they just have to amend the GFA, after a decision is made on how the Brexit will be done in practical terms.
I can't really see what the big deal is.
On the other hand, the Europeans who work in the UK and the Britons who work in the EU might have real practical problems since they need visas, work permits etc.
Now why on earth would we be expected to do that? What needs to change are the terms of Brexit - the GFA is not up for debate. The issue is that nobody thought to consider how a Brexit might impact on NI and the GFA (because they simply did not care) and now they are quite rightly forced into an impossible situation as a result. It's entirely their own fault and it is not the fault of the GFA which was already in place for all to see if they had bothered to look.
........how???
Now is definitely the time for you to go and read up on this.
Edit: "just get it done" = Brexit in a nutshell.
That sentence makes no sense. Before a decision is made there is no deal and the UK current red lines lead to two jurisdictions meaning a custom border anyway. So as things stands your amendment would mean making the GFA null which is the issue.
You surely know the difference between a hard and soft border?
Technically, here we are talking about controlled vs open borders, both can be soft.
Okay, assume we get a no-deal brexit. And there is no amendment of GFA. And there is still no border and everyone keeps going like today. No enforced border, no hard border. In practice, what exactly will be the problem?
Surely ”no deal” goes directly to a hard border rather than controlled.
Yeah you can’t do that and that you think you can really means that you need to read up on this starting from the very beginning.
A mountain of issues with customs, tariffs and freedom of movement. Honestly, what's the point of asking questions like this and not going off and actually reading even one of the thousands of articles on this from the past two years?
It'd be like me saying, "Hey, the 2nd Amendment sounds dumb to me, just change it".
But why??? Can someone give me a specific example?
Movement of goods and services between eu and non-eu countries.
And people, and a shit load of other issues.
Give an example! If it is so difficult for all of you to give ONE example, then actually nobody understands what the problem is.
Because you can’t stop freedom of movement and goods to/from the UK without a fecking border man.
I'm simplifying as you'd hope the common travel area would still stand. But yes, it is a massive issue when it comes to non irish/uk citizens.
Like what? You will buy a car in Ireland and go sell it in NI?
"The Electoral College is kinda stupid, you should change it. It's easy to change, right?"
In a no deal situation, nothing still stands though.
Sorry now, but you're in a thread where people have spent months discussing at length exactly what you want. Why should they distill it for you when you can simply use the Back button to go through the thread and see for yourself.
Not to mention that there are literally hundreds of articles a week in every UK and Irish news outlet explaining what you want to know.
My lord you really don’t understand this at all do you?
For example do you plan to stop freedom of movement from/to the UK from the EU without a border?