Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
4bars said:
can the labours force a second referendum (with some rogue Tories)?
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The numbers don't exist.
Labour tried to amend the Brexit bills many times, for example, if the negotiations fail, Labour's amendment would keep Britain in the single market. They tried to get Troy rebels but got only 3, and that is nowhere near enough (especially since 2-3 Labour MPs are leaver too). If pro-remain Tories are ok with a no-deal exit, they will not support a second referendum I think.
 
berbatrick said:
The numbers don't exist.
Labour tried to amend the Brexit bills many times, for example, if the negotiations fail, Labour's amendment would keep Britain in the single market. They tried to get Troy rebels but got only 3, and that is nowhere near enough (especially since 2-3 Labour MPs are leaver too). If pro-remain Tories are ok with a no-deal exit, they will not support a second referendum I think.
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Yep for all the bizarre fixation liberals have on changing Labour position, if they really wanted to change the course of Brexit they should be thinking of joining the tory party - lower membership that is dying off. Or at the very least lobbying that pro remain tories.
 
balaks said:
I thought that was fairly obvious - talking about 'occupiers' is a very simplistic view of the history here - there have been many 'occupiers' here over the years all of which have impacted the culture of the place and the British are just one of a long list. There is no current occupier in Northern Ireland and to suggest there is I'm afraid is ignorance and/or midguided romanticism. This is getting wildly off-topic but sometimes when you read utter nonsense you need to challenge it.
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I have to disagree with you there. No other occupiers instituted religious or class segregation or took away entire swathes of land for themselves. The Vikings for example didnt do any damage compared to the british empire. I cant be having that false equivalency mate sorry. Not when you consider the famine was essentially a genocide.
 
Ramshock said:
I have to disagree with you there. No other occupiers instituted religious or class segregation or took away entire swathes of land for themselves. The Vikings for example didnt do any damage compared to the british empire. I cant be having that false equivalency mate sorry. Not when you consider the famine was essentially a genocide.
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That's enough thread-derailing thank you. If you want to argue the history of Ireland then start a different thread.
 
Boris releases his brexit plan today... Which does make me wonder is he plotting a coup at conference (might they have sufficient letters ready to go from MP's to start a challenge... Say late today or over the weekend)
 
berbatrick said:
The numbers don't exist.
Labour tried to amend the Brexit bills many times, for example, if the negotiations fail, Labour's amendment would keep Britain in the single market. They tried to get Troy rebels but got only 3, and that is nowhere near enough (especially since 2-3 Labour MPs are leaver too). If pro-remain Tories are ok with a no-deal exit, they will not support a second referendum I think.
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Pro-remain Torres are not ok with a no-deal exit, and will bring down the government before allowing it.
 
I pretty much said from the start of this process that a no deal/hard Brexit was inescapable. It’s becoming increasingly evident too.

I just hope they spend the next 6 months putting as much in place as needs be to smooth the transition.
 
MadMike said:
I pretty much said from the start of this process that a no deal/hard Brexit was inescapable. It’s becoming increasingly evident too.

I just hope they spend the next 6 months putting as much in place as needs be to smooth the transition.
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200w.webp
 
MadMike said:
I pretty much said from the start of this process that a no deal/hard Brexit was inescapable. It’s becoming increasingly evident too.

I just hope they spend the next 6 months putting as much in place as needs be to smooth the transition.
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I think it's incredibly complacent to trust or expect the government to 'smooth this transition'. They aren't up to it. You need to make your own plans too. There's enough risk of a colossal feck up to make it necessary. We're beyond project fear now, time for project consequences.
 
18th October is the EU meeting - which means that in reality lets say 1 week before there needs to be behind the scenes some basic agreement in order to draft and approve it in time for 18th
So thats 11th October roughly as a timeline for doing that
and we have the conservative conference running to the 3rd (which will likley either end in a lot of the EU is nasty and make any negations even more difficult or end in a leadership challenge / election that will kill dead any negotiations)
In short a no deal really must be about 99% certain now (especially with the additional hurdle of getting it through parliament)
 
nickm said:
I think it's incredibly complacent to trust or expect the government to 'smooth this transition'. They aren't up to it. You need to make your own plans too. There's enough risk of a colossal feck up to make it necessary. We're beyond project fear now, time for project consequences.
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Making plans is one thing, bringing these plans to fruition is quite another. I hope that most, if not all of the business, have already done the risk analysis for a no-deal Brexit and have come up with a list of actions to be undertaken when that result is solidified.

However a lot of these actions are both quite expensive and complex, especially for anything that is related to manufacturing and distribution. For example moving part of a business somewhere else to circumvent the barriers being put up, requires acquiring real estate, equipment, hiring/relocating staff, training etc. etc. Things that you can't do in 6 months. And things you don't want to start doing unless the result of the negotiations is definite and fixed because the cost is huge.

I think given the time constraints the best that can be done is for the government to agree to hard Brexit and negotiate only a short-term extension of the status quo (single market access) with a fixed end date. The end state will no doubt be a hard Brexit with no access to single market, a fallback to WTO and tariffs on goods. What we had so far was a negotiating period, now we need a transition period. It needs to be put in place so both sides can decide the tariffs, put in place border/customs controls that are currently not in place and to give businesses some time to implement their "no-deal Brexit" plans.
 
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The desperation to align the UK with the US by any means necessary is alarming .
You now have senior Tories willing to say, nothing should be off the table including the NHS.
 
MadMike said:
Making plans is one thing, bringing these plans to fruition is quite another. I hope that most, if not all of the business, have already done the risk analysis for a no-deal Brexit and have come up with a list of actions to be undertaken when that result is solidified.
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I'm not sure that a hard brexit is something that businesses can simply plan around. For many, the disruption to trading relationships, supply chains, markets and cashflows will make it an existential threat. I guess it's back to the days of 3 million unemployed then.
 
Kentonio said:
Pro-remain Torres are not ok with a no-deal exit, and will bring down the government before allowing it.
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There is no such thing as a Tory rebel. They will ruin the country to .maintain party unity.
 
Adisa said:
There is no such thing as a Tory rebel. They will ruin the country to .maintain party unity.
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That's ironic, since the position most correlated with the ruination of the country is that of a no-deal Brexit. And that is a rebel Tory position.
 
So we have
1. May's Chequers plan which was already rejected over 2 months ago which she is still clinging to.
2. Labour's six Brexit tests which mean their own plans fail.
3. Boris's plan which solves nothing.

I know, let's have a referendum.
 
Incredible that we are less than 6 months to Brexit and we have not yet had a factual, reasonable debate about Brexit.
 
sun_tzu said:
18th October is the EU meeting - which means that in reality lets say 1 week before there needs to be behind the scenes some basic agreement in order to draft and approve it in time for 18th
So thats 11th October roughly as a timeline for doing that
and we have the conservative conference running to the 3rd (which will likley either end in a lot of the EU is nasty and make any negations even more difficult or end in a leadership challenge / election that will kill dead any negotiations)
In short a no deal really must be about 99% certain now (especially with the additional hurdle of getting it through parliament)
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So no more being calm that a last minute deal will happen?

Is the moment of?

latest
 
4bars said:
So no more being calm that a last minute deal will happen?

Is the moment of?

latest
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I think a deal will happen... We might just have to crash out with no deal and a bit of panic before we sort one... But yeah I think no deal Unless article 50 is extended seems by far the most likley now (if a deal gets agreed last minute then probably they extend)... Depends if we have a nutter like mogg as pm by then
 
sun_tzu said:
I think a deal will happen... We might just have to crash out with no deal and a bit of panic before we sort one... But yeah I think no deal Unless article 50 is extended seems by far the most likley now (if a deal gets agreed last minute then probably they extend)... Depends if we have a nutter like mogg as pm by then
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I think I was discussing that with @Paul the Wolf (maybe someone else), if it was possible to extend the negotiating timeline and I recall that the only thing that could be extended is a transition period but a deal should be reached signed before the 29 of March?

Do you think is possible to extend 6 months- 1 year. the extension of article 50? I want the Brexit series to end I want season 2 to start
 
4bars said:
I think I was discussing that with @Paul the Wolf (maybe someone else), if it was possible to extend the negotiating timeline and I recall that the only thing that could be extended is a transition period but a deal should be reached signed before the 29 of March?

Do you think is possible to extend 6 months- 1 year. the extension of article 50? I want the Brexit series to end I want season 2 to start
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My understanding (mainly what I'm told by civil servants in the treasury but not working on brexit) is yes with agreement from all parties article 50 can be extended... The October / November deadline comes from the time to put the legislation through all 27 parliament's so I think if let's say in January a deal was reached it would be possible at that point to extend the article 50 deadline in order to get the legistlation through (I don't think there is the political will on either side to negotiate further but I could see it for what would essentially be admin / practicalities as long as all of the exit terms were fully agreed)
 
sun_tzu said:
My understanding (mainly what I'm told by civil servants in the treasury but not working on brexit) is yes with agreement from all parties article 50 can be extended... The October / November deadline comes from the time to put the legislation through all 27 parliament's so I think if let's say in January a deal was reached it would be possible at that point to extend the article 50 deadline in order to get the legistlation through (I don't think there is the political will on either side to negotiate further but I could see it for what would essentially be admin / practicalities as long as all of the exit terms were fully agreed)
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So, you are saying that if a deal UK-EU is reached by January-February, could be extended for the approval for the 27. Sounds reasonable. Will have to wait 3 months for season 2 then. Thanks!
 
4bars said:
I think I was discussing that with @Paul the Wolf (maybe someone else), if it was possible to extend the negotiating timeline and I recall that the only thing that could be extended is a transition period but a deal should be reached signed before the 29 of March?

Do you think is possible to extend 6 months- 1 year. the extension of article 50? I want the Brexit series to end I want season 2 to start
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Don't know if it was me I but don't see Article 50 extended at all. The EU have elections in May for a new parliament and all the rest. The only choice for the UK is to leave next March or stay but under certain conditions. As no deal looks likely there won't be a transition period either.

Anything that's going to be agreed has to be agreed in the next 6/7 weeks at the very outside.

Season 2 will start next March but it might not be a pretty sight if the UK don't get a deal.

The view from the UK seems to be that they hope the EU will bend some rules. My view is they have zero chance of that.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Don't know if it was me I but don't see Article 50 extended at all. The EU have elections in May for a new parliament and all the rest. The only choice for the UK is to leave next March or stay but under certain conditions. As no deal looks likely there won't be a transition period either.

Anything that's going to be agreed has to be agreed in the next 6/7 weeks at the very outside.

Season 2 will start next March but it might not be a pretty sight if the UK don't get a deal.

The view from the UK seems to be that they hope the EU will bend some rules. My view is they have zero chance of that.
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I tend to agree that is most likley but I believe the mechanism exists to extend if required
 
sun_tzu said:
I tend to agree that is most likley but I believe the mechanism exists to extend if required
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Maybe the mechanism exists but I suspect the will does not. 2 years and 3 months since the referendum and really there has been little advance and what advance there has been the UK threaten not to stand by, like the bill and the backstop. Even citizens rights, they're not really agreed.

That's all there was to agree and really nothing is agreed, another 6 or 12 months of the same doesn't enthrall the EU I think but the UK can't have any seats in the EU parliament or any say so they will be leaving anyway. 2 years totally wasted.
 
So we will know if is no deal:

Pessimistic: mid-november
Optimistic: end of January

Just want thiss squable to end. Brexit fascinates me
 
Watch this without pulling your hair out. We are mugs for putting up with these guys.

 
sun_tzu said:
18th October is the EU meeting - which means that in reality lets say 1 week before there needs to be behind the scenes some basic agreement in order to draft and approve it in time for 18th
So thats 11th October roughly as a timeline for doing that
and we have the conservative conference running to the 3rd (which will likley either end in a lot of the EU is nasty and make any negations even more difficult or end in a leadership challenge / election that will kill dead any negotiations)
In short a no deal really must be about 99% certain now (especially with the additional hurdle of getting it through parliament)
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Yeah I'd say so too. Tbh I get the feeling this was the EU's intention from day one.
 
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