And that's why I'm baffled, the only alternative has been offered by the EU and was rejected, it was also a solution that respected the fact that NI voted to remain. As long as NI choose to stay with the UK and the UK rejects any option that would divide the Union, there is no solution that the EU can offer. The other solution only concerns the Republic of Ireland, they can decide to join the UK in a new block.
Brexited | the worst threads live the longest
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And that's why I'm baffled, the only alternative has been offered by the EU and was rejected, it was also a solution that respected the fact that NI voted to remain. As long as NI choose to stay with the UK and the UK rejects any option that would divide the Union, there is no solution that the EU can offer. The other solution only concerns the Republic of Ireland, they can decide to join the UK in a new block.
The UK can't afford to suddenly have no trade deals in place. It absolutely has to make arrangements in time to transition into them. That's why they refuse to agree the deal until at least a framework for trade is also agreed.
I don't remember that but if I did and you mean this autumn I've still got 3 months left.
End 2019 is the very latest, it could be long before then.
But maybe your memory is playing tricks.
That's not really the EU problem isn't it?
Look, there's obviously no real solution to the issue that doesn't involve the UK remaining in the customs union and CTA, they have to. I'm hoping they will, but I think they'll need a push from the EU and some concessions in other areas to do that, which is what I was alluding to, not some magical scenario that I've plucked out of nowhere that solves the border issue, I mean, what do you think I am, a Brexiteer?
It's not exactly helpful to the EU either, considering how much trade there is between the two.
What type of concessions do you have in mind?Look, there's obviously no real solution to the issue that doesn't involve the UK remaining in the customs union and CTA, they have to. I'm hoping they will, but I think they'll need a push from the EU and some concessions in other areas to do that, which is what I was alluding to, not some magical scenario that I've plucked out of nowhere that solves the border issue, I mean, what do you think I am, a Brexiteer?
To be fair to May she has done one thing - by standing in the way of people like Johnson and Gove she has at least managed to turn down the heat on some of the rhetoric they would have been spouting for the past 2 years. I don't think Johnson or Gove would have achieved anything else with their approach in material terms as I think the EU would have handled them in the same way.
If Johnson or gove had been in power for the last couple of years they would have started to wind up the people about how unfair the EU was et etc and gradually would have gone further and further into the agenda of EDL and far right groups. We are already seeing higher levels of racist attacks and hate crimes but I think these would have sky-rocketed under Johnson or Gove.
The dangerous game of Boris, sorry Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson - is that he is stoking up animosity about taking back control, immigration etc with not a clue about how to achieve it and other more sinister people will feed of that.
She had no choice other than the tack she has taken in my opinion. She has no idea what the final result will be and what the country would think about a 2nd Referendum. Deep down she would probably want one. But she has to completely dismiss the possibility of one because if the EU get the slightest wind that is is on the agenda then they will stone-wall her completely. I know it looks like that now but there are still a lot of noises off about some compromises.
The problem is that every single permutation of Brexit crosses somebody's red line.
Something has to give.
The problem is that every single permutation of Brexit crosses somebody's red line.
Something has to give.
Settling our "bill" is the only real leverage the UK has. Its naive to think the UK would ever give that upwithout a deal.
Well it depends how you see it. If there's a disruption in trade then many UK based companies will be forced to move elsewhere, possibly to another EU country. That means more jobs and money from taxes to a EU countrie and less trade to a third country. Also if the UK is determined to lower tariffs then it won't really hurt the EU either.
a- because WTO rules doesn't allow you to discriminate between countries unless you first sign trade deals. We all know that trade deals take years to be signed
b- because if the UK is dead set to lower tariffs then the EU will be competing with many countries who will be selling that same products. Which means that the UK isn't that much of an important customer anymore
In easier terms, imagine yourself as a shop keeper that sells niche products. Now I've been a consistent customer for years, spending shitloads of money week in week out. At one point we decided to make a deal ie I only buy stuff from you and in return you give me a 40% discount. One fine day I come to your shop to tell you that I will be buying stuff from all over the world now through internet and instead of spending lets say 1k a month you'll be lucky if I spend 10-20 euros instead. Do you think you'll keep me on the privileged customer list after that?
true however if the UK refuse to pay its dues as per agreed then its reputation will go into ashes especially after previously showing the middle finger to a reliable partner such as the EU by leaving . I wonder whose on earth would trust the UK in trade deals after that. Not to forget that EU will be given the perfect casus belli to act as a cnut when the UK tries to negotiate with the WTO and other stuff like red tape all over the continent on products leaving the UK to the EU and grounding air planes going to main land Europe.
The last thing the UK needs at this point in time is that its an unreliable partner.
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Hence why they're trying to force Britain's hand into a deal that'll ensure there is no border. Easing up on that won't necessarily help Ireland at all - it'll just convince May she can push for a deal more beneficial to the UK.
It's not beneficial to them, but not as harmful as it is to us. It's like us drowning and them stepping in a puddle. A mild inconvenience but by no means a disaster compared to what it could be for us depending on the path taken.
Maybe there should be a referendum in NI on the matter... Do the people of NI want to be included in the EU customs area or do they want hard Brexit. Doesn't have to be an United Ireland deal. The fear for May is that if that happened, Scotland would probably want the same.
Which is fair. While as a Scot I understand that the NI situation is more perilous due to the genuine threat of violence, I'd also expect our thoughts to be taken into account if individual UK countries are getting a say when it comes to this. Especially when campaigning during the 2014 referendum continually stated again and again that our only guarantee of EU membership was to vote against independence.
Of course, but it’s still damage they’d prefer to avoid if there’s a way of doing it that doesn’t involve threatening the stability of the union.
I never said ease up on the border, clearly it's the priority. I said ease up on other aspects to sort out the border.
Whatever ones will keep the UK happy? Maybe let them have their stricter immigration rules that they wanted in 2015? I'm not sure, that's for the EU and UK to figure out. I don't think the EU will budge (nor should they, really) so it's all pointless anyway.
It’s all a big ‘possible’ though, and trade isn’t zero sum. The EU don’t want to lose the U.K. as a reliable trade partner even temporarily, it’s just that isn’t enough to risk undermining the whole EU to prevent it.
That seems like an obvious step but I have to admit that I do not know the political and social climate of NI enough, there is a reason why it's not happening other than the economic arguments.
A UK & Irish Bloc with a Canada plus plus deal with the EU
I hear you but there's nothing more the EU can do. The EU had been quite generous in giving concessions to the UK just for it to remain in the EU. Despite all that it insisted on leaving the EU on issues (ex ECJ and EU immigrants from Eastern European countries) it had previously worked so hard in favour off. Even after Brexit there were plenty of deals on the table which would have avoided hard border but all of them were shot down by the UK. Instead all it offered is a half baked deal which would threaten the integrity of the single market and won't really sort the Irish border issue at all. Till the time of writing the EU insist to put the Irish border at the centre of the negotiations to the frustration of Brexiteers who seem cannot bother less about it.
Hard borders is not something the EU has control over especially when third countries are concerned. That's a prerequisite the WTO will demand. Do not take me wrong, the EU can and should help Ireland in everything it can. However it certainly can't force Britain's hand either
I think that the recent events showed that the UK is anything but reliable.
What is the point for the other 26 countries, what concessions the UK offers? I'm not against the idea but in that case I would ask for zero rebate and no access to the service market.
The point is to avoid a fecking hard border with Ireland.
They couldn't even bother using the tools the EU already gives to try and control EU immigration.
The reality is quite simple. The UK had been incompetent on immigration and it had hidden such incompetence by shifting all the blame on the EU.
the single market is the EU. A breach in its integrity would mean the end of the EU. The EU is doing its very best to sign a good deal for Ireland but the other side seem not caring at all. If hard borders are up then unfortunately Ireland will have to choose between staying in the EU with hard borders with the UK or leaving the EU altogether and sign a trade deal with the UK on a disadvantaged position
"They won't stop planes landing!"
Turns out the Government says they will.
Turns out the Government says they will.
There's enough concern across the bloc about immigration for the EU to look at again it in all honesty.
Maybe some reform like net migration quotas for each country instead of open door.
That could be a justifiable reason to call a 2nd referendum - considering the 1st was pretty much solely about immigration.
WTO veto might supercede that.
There is barely any concern about EU immigration across the bloc, because there is barely any immigration.
It's only the UK that objects to immigration of other Europeans , they are on their own. The EU won't make concessions on that.
A UK & Irish Bloc with a Canada plus plus deal with the EU
Leave the south out of your mess.
Let's be blunt, a hard border will have zero consequences on the other 26 countries, they didn't create the issue and have no problem with controlled borders(Belgium and France have partially reinstated some in the last years). So the only reason they are actually negotiating on that subject is because they are partners with Ireland who doesn't want nor need a controlled border. Due to the "The EU" narrative people seem to really forget that the UK and Ireland need to sell these negotiations to the rest of the EU member states because for them it's purely diplomatic. So when you suggest that the EU should offer anything that the UK would accept you are basically shitting on 26 sovereign countries.
If Brexit ends with a no deal and there is a hard border in N.I, what is the likeliness that IRA reactivates and starts violence again?
There is that i suppose, but it wont get in the way of Brextremist sound bites and sabre rattling!
I think it's unlikely that we'd see an immediate re-emergence of militancy. However there will be an immediate escalation in cross-border smuggling operations which tend to be linked to former militant networks, and so could feed into any growth in violence that does occur. Right now though there's no stomach for a return to violence, it would take a series of minor mutual provocations to potentially escalate into something bigger - this is actually what happened in the late 60s, but the political, demographic, economic and global context is a lot different now.
No it won't, David Davis was close to suggesting much worse on their tour to Bolton.
The actual provos? Not likely.
Brexit is one of the greatest gifts to republicans politically.
Looks like this is the game Labour want to continue playing.