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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


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    194
  • Poll closed .
I think it's unlikely that we'd see an immediate re-emergence of militancy. However there will be an immediate escalation in cross-border smuggling operations which tend to be linked to former militant networks, and so could feed into any growth in violence that does occur. Right now though there's no stomach for a return to violence, it would take a series of minor mutual provocations to potentially escalate into something bigger - this is actually what happened in the late 60s, but the political, demographic, economic and global context is a lot different now.
That's interesting and somewhat hopeful at least. What would be the major items smuggled, and in which directions?
 
That's interesting and somewhat hopeful at least. What would be the major items smuggled, and in which directions?

Today it seems to be mainly cigarettes. Presumably after a no deal Brexit and implementation of a hard border you'll have everything from booze to humans.
 
Today it seems to be mainly cigarettes. Presumably after a no deal Brexit and implementation of a hard border you'll have everything from booze to humans.
Yeah thanks, I was wondering which way most of it would go really. Prices seem higher in Eire when I've been, but I don't know if that's taxes or what, pardon my ignorance. People would be the UK's worry of course, that's where all this began.

Thanks to the others too for their hilarious replies. :)
 
My original post made all this clear. Because of Ireland. The EU need to accept that Ireland and the border will have a very negative effect on a country that will still be in the EU should a deal not be reached. I don't disagree with what you're saying, the UK deserve to crash and burn for their stupidity but my country does not.

Look, it won't happen, unless the UK cave there will be a hard border, the EU won't budge on it, clearly. I just hope they're prepared for the consequences and don't leave us out on our arse.

Sea border...feck the DUP
 
Yeah thanks, I was wondering which way most of it would go really. Prices seem higher in Eire when I've been, but I don't know if that's taxes or what, pardon my ignorance. People would be the UK's worry of course, that's where all this began.

Thanks to the others too for their hilarious replies. :)

Prices higher but so are wages
 
Maybe there should be a referendum in NI on the matter... Do the people of NI want to be included in the EU customs area or do they want hard Brexit. Doesn't have to be an United Ireland deal. The fear for May is that if that happened, Scotland would probably want the same.
If NI and Scotland get to vote, London should get one too!
 
Which is fair. While as a Scot I understand that the NI situation is more perilous due to the genuine threat of violence, I'd also expect our thoughts to be taken into account if individual UK countries are getting a say when it comes to this. Especially when campaigning during the 2014 referendum continually stated again and again that our only guarantee of EU membership was to vote against independence.

It doesn't take anything from your point but while reading the GFA, I kept asking myself whether the right to self determination stipulated in the agreement could be used in favour of NI and ROI in the particular case of Brexit. While the term "United Ireland" was probably supposed to mean as a recognized nation, you could argue that "united" could also simply mean "not separated" and in that case the people of NI and ROI are the only one allowed to determine their fate, not Westminster.

Scotland right to self determination is outside of an agreement with Westminster, it makes it a little bit more difficult to put forward.
 
I think it's unlikely that we'd see an immediate re-emergence of militancy. However there will be an immediate escalation in cross-border smuggling operations which tend to be linked to former militant networks, and so could feed into any growth in violence that does occur. Right now though there's no stomach for a return to violence, it would take a series of minor mutual provocations to potentially escalate into something bigger - this is actually what happened in the late 60s, but the political, demographic, economic and global context is a lot different now.

It's the dissidents that are the issue though - they will be targeting some poor bugger at the border check for sure. They still have a lot of support up around Derry and in other spots.
 
I think it's unlikely that we'd see an immediate re-emergence of militancy. However there will be an immediate escalation in cross-border smuggling operations which tend to be linked to former militant networks, and so could feed into any growth in violence that does occur. Right now though there's no stomach for a return to violence, it would take a series of minor mutual provocations to potentially escalate into something bigger - this is actually what happened in the late 60s, but the political, demographic, economic and global context is a lot different now.

I beg to differ
 
It's the dissidents that are the issue though - they will be targeting some poor bugger at the border check for sure. They still have a lot of support up around Derry and in other spots.

You would also assume that the ability of security services on both sides of the border to co-operate would also be impacted by a no deal. I think things like the EAW are all caught up in these negotiations?

I would have thought that most of the damage of a no deal would likely be in the long term though. Pretty much every factor that might lead to a permanent increase in violence (be it political, economic, structural or cultural) would start heading in the wrong direction.
 
Can anybody answer a general question about the EU for me? I know from doing some digging recently that past labour politicians (1970's mostly) feared that a United Europe trading behemoth would be bad for workers rights. Has that come to be the case? Does the EU favour employers and boardrooms over worker protections, or is it the opposite?
 
Can anybody answer a general question about the EU for me? I know from doing some digging recently that past labour politicians (1970's mostly) feared that a United Europe trading behemoth would be bad for workers rights. Has that come to be the case? Does the EU favour employers and boardrooms over worker protections, or is it the opposite?

Workers have more rights but it's mainly down to national governments.
 
And that's why I'm baffled, the only alternative has been offered by the EU and was rejected, it was also a solution that respected the fact that NI voted to remain. As long as NI choose to stay with the UK and the UK rejects any option that would divide the Union, there is no solution that the EU can offer. The other solution only concerns the Republic of Ireland, they can decide to join the UK in a new block.
Have you read the guardian today? Apparently 'the worlds greatest trade deal maker' says it can be done and is done every day around the world. If so can we drop the feckin 'it cant be done' stance
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.th...to-drop-chequers-in-order-to-win-brexit-prize
 
And that's why I'm baffled, the only alternative has been offered by the EU and was rejected, it was also a solution that respected the fact that NI voted to remain. As long as NI choose to stay with the UK and the UK rejects any option that would divide the Union, there is no solution that the EU can offer. The other solution only concerns the Republic of Ireland, they can decide to join the UK in a new block.

If this is one of the solutions we have then to say we are clutching at straws is the understatement of the century.
 
Have you read the guardian today? Apparently 'the worlds greatest trade deal maker' says it can be done and is done every day around the world. If so can we drop the feckin 'it cant be done' stance
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.th...to-drop-chequers-in-order-to-win-brexit-prize

Saw this already.
Doesn't say a lot apart from the infamous non-existent technology solution.
Did you vote him to be the world's greatest ?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/23/shanker-singham-is-he-the-brains-of-brexit

This article was from the Guardian yesterday.
Now we know why Brexit is in trouble.
 
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Can anybody answer a general question about the EU for me? I know from doing some digging recently that past labour politicians (1970's mostly) feared that a United Europe trading behemoth would be bad for workers rights. Has that come to be the case? Does the EU favour employers and boardrooms over worker protections, or is it the opposite?
I know the trade union I belonged to used European law for individual cases. It was always a good threat at any rate, as companies often didn't know much about it themselves, so they knew they would be in for a costly battle from an expenses point of view. Modern unions are often in favour of the EU, it's the oldies like Corbyn and McDonnell that never noticed the seventies and eighties had finished that are against it.
 
I know the trade union I belonged to used European law for individual cases. It was always a good threat at any rate, as companies often didn't know much about it themselves, so they knew they would be in for a costly battle from an expenses point of view. Modern unions are often in favour of the EU, it's the oldies like Corbyn and McDonnell that never noticed the seventies and eighties had finished that are against it.


Yes I think a lot of the older socialists had a fear that it would be bad for workers. I suppose the potential is there.
 
If Brexit ends with a no deal and there is a hard border in N.I, what is the likeliness that IRA reactivates and starts violence again?

If we are honest in the sense of fighting against the crown virtually zero. The ideology has died as many things do with time. They'd be more interested in using their networks to make money from smuglling should there be a border and that could give rise to a different kind of violence between different factions and organised crime groups. Should that be the case it will be too close to home for border communities that have endured shockwaves of violence during the troubles.
 
Saw this already.
Doesn't say a lot apart from the infamous non-existent technology solution.
Did you vote him to be the world's greatest ?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/23/shanker-singham-is-he-the-brains-of-brexit

This article was from the Guardian yesterday.
Now we know why Brexit is in trouble.
No, in another article he was proclaimed that by many leading economists, probably not the eu tho as they know how to do shit already, just look at their recent track record.
 
If this is one of the solutions we have then to say we are clutching at straws is the understatement of the century.

That's why no one mentions it, it's clearly not happening but it's nonetheless an option.

Have you read the guardian today? Apparently 'the worlds greatest trade deal maker' says it can be done and is done every day around the world. If so can we drop the feckin 'it cant be done' stance
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.th...to-drop-chequers-in-order-to-win-brexit-prize

I'm willing to drop it at any sign of an actual clue. The issue is that first their solution isn't in "Brexit Prize", in fact iirc Ireland is mentioned once as an example of debt crisis and if you try to dig a little bit outside of it, the solution is the one offered by the EU, here you have an article from the Guardian that makes it clear, Ireland as a whole would be isolated from the UK and the UK would update Northern Irish rules in accordance to EU Laws, borders would be around the island and checks would be made in situ and around the border.
 
I looked at both Brexit Prize and Plan A, it's special but this article points to something else that is a bit more worrying.

Yes.

Also Minford made up a lot of similar extraordinary figures.

I did read a bit more and although it seems a bit more thought out than Minford's but it still seems detached from reality.
There were several passages where I was laughing out loud.
 
Yes.

Also Minford made up a lot of similar extraordinary figures.

I did read a bit more and although it seems a bit more thought out than Minford's but it still seems detached from reality.
There were several passages where I was laughing out loud.
I find anyone trying to find a break through better than repetative no sayers saying it cant be done so lets not try. Its like being at work.