Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...al/driving-in-the-eu-if-theres-no-brexit-deal

Quick look at the driving in the EU document, no mention of insurance which would surely no longer be valid, I remember Green cards from days of yore, what about the MOT , would this still be recognised?

What I especially like is each document starts with "in the unlikely event of no deal..."
At this moment in time it is about a 99.9% chance there is no deal.
 
At this point it doesn't really matter how anti brexit Labour is. I think at the end of the day, the Tories will vote for whatever agreement May comes up with. I have no doubt that some Labour MPs will vote with the government.
@Sweet Square tweet won't matter because I think the government will come up with the numbers eventually.
 
Corbyn and Labour are now totally irrelevant to Brexit. Too late.
If May sticks with Chequers there's no deal, if Mogg gets his way, no deal, even if Corbyn had a say he wants to leave the SM and CU which is another version of Chequers which also equals no deal.

The only way to have a deal is for the UK to cave in on its red lines and get that through parliament. No deal.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Corbyn and Labour are now totally irrelevant to Brexit. Too late.
If May sticks with Chequers there's no deal, if Mogg gets his way, no deal, even if Corbyn had a say he wants to leave the SM and CU which is another version of Chequers which also equals no deal.

The only way to have a deal is for the UK to cave in on its red lines and get that through parliament. No deal.
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Just 6 months.

IMO, the only 2 options is or no deal, or May saying "We were kidding! can we stay?"
 
4bars said:
Just 6 months.

IMO, the only 2 options is or no deal, or May saying "We were kidding! can we stay?"
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Yes agree, they are realistically the only options left.

Corbyn's only hope of power is for the UK to crash out in March, the government to collapse and an election is called when it becomes apparent how many problems they have. So his strategy is for the UK to fail miserably and he picks up the pieces? Even then he's not guaranteed because he was pro-Brexit so the blame would also be on him as well as the Tories.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Yes agree, they are realistically the only options left.

Corbyn's only hope of power is for the UK to crash out in March, the government to collapse and an election is called when it becomes apparent how many problems they have. So his strategy is for the UK to fail miserably and he picks up the pieces? Even then he's not guaranteed because he was pro-Brexit so the blame would also be on him as well as the Tories.
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If may stays through the brexit process she won't call an election

If may gets ousted then Johnson or mogg Or whoever will say there is no time for an election.... Preparing for brexit etc

Post brexit neither may or Johnson etc would call an election... They will be too busy "enacting the will of the people and making a success of brexit" (or some similar wording)

If there is / isn't .deal probably won't become clear till November / December...

Westminster will close for Xmas and by the time any deal / no deal is properly scrutinised the calls for a second vote will be useless as there won't be time to have the vote and any renegotiation so yeah it's either some very fragmented botched together last minute deal... Or more likley no deal and no immediate election
 
sun_tzu said:
If may stays through the brexit process she won't call an election

If may gets ousted then Johnson or mogg Or whoever will say there is no time for an election.... Preparing for brexit etc

Post brexit neither may or Johnson etc would call an election... They will be too busy "enacting the will of the people and making a success of brexit" (or some similar wording)

If there is / isn't .deal probably won't become clear till November / December...

Westminster will close for Xmas and by the time any deal / no deal is properly scrutinised the calls for a second vote will be useless as there won't be time to have the vote and any renegotiation so yeah it's either some very fragmented botched together last minute deal... Or more likley no deal and no immediate election
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Does the deal need to ratified by all 27 other countries? And if even 1 rejects, the deal is off? Is that correct?
 
sun_tzu said:
If may stays through the brexit process she won't call an election

If may gets ousted then Johnson or mogg Or whoever will say there is no time for an election.... Preparing for brexit etc

Post brexit neither may or Johnson etc would call an election... They will be too busy "enacting the will of the people and making a success of brexit" (or some similar wording)

If there is / isn't .deal probably won't become clear till November / December...

Westminster will close for Xmas and by the time any deal / no deal is properly scrutinised the calls for a second vote will be useless as there won't be time to have the vote and any renegotiation so yeah it's either some very fragmented botched together last minute deal... Or more likley no deal and no immediate election
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Yes, there will not be time for an election or a second referendum before March.
I was thinking a few months after March next year, if things get so bad after a no deal exit the government would be in such a poor position they may be forced to call an election. Who would really then want such a poisoned chalice?
 
Member 5225 said:
Does the deal need to ratified by all 27 other countries? And if even 1 rejects, the deal is off? Is that correct?
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I believe so... And as such probably some last minute bargaining is inevitable as well

Hungary might want some of the recent criticism rolled back... Quitaly might have some tweaks financially as may Greece... Perhaps Spain will throw a gibralta shaped spanner into the mix

I would say though if the deal gets that close extending article 50 by a few months to iron out any last issue might be an easy fix
 
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sun_tzu said:
I believe so... And as such probably some last minute bargaining is inevitable as well

Hungary might want some of the recent criticism rolled back... Quitaly might have some tweaks financially as may Greece... Perhaps Spain will throw a gibralta shaped spanner into the mix

I would say though if the deal gets that close extending article 50 by a few months to iron out any last issue might be an easy fix
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balaks said:
Correct
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haha omg how is everyone so relaxed about that then. It’s almost 100% not going to be passed (by all 27). To the point above, either going to be used to get some personal concession to vote yes, or just hold it all up to create a scene / prove a point / ‘punish’ the UK etc
 
Paz said:
haha omg how is everyone so relaxed about that then. It’s almost 100% not going to be passed (by all 27). To the point above, either going to be used to get some personal concession to vote yes, or just hold it all up to create a scene / prove a point / ‘punish’ the UK etc
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I'm not relaxed about it - i think no deal is the most likely outcome at this stage which is an absolute disaster.
 
Member 5225 said:
haha omg how is everyone so relaxed about that then. It’s almost 100% not going to be passed (by all 27). To the point above, either going to be used to get some personal concession to vote yes, or just hold it all up to create a scene / prove a point / ‘punish’ the UK etc
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Genuine question, given what you know now, and what has happened since, would you still vote to leave?
 
balaks said:
I'm not relaxed about it - i think no deal is the most likely outcome at this stage which is an absolute disaster.
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Yeah and that’s not even taking anything the UK are (or aren’t) doing. Even if negotiations had gone swimmingly well, there would’ve still been minimal chance it would be agreed by all 27 other countries IMHO.
 
Member 5225 said:
Yeah and that’s not even taking anything the UK are (or aren’t) doing. Even if negotiations had gone swimmingly well, there would’ve still been minimal chance it would be agreed by all 27 other countries IMHO.
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Well it may have been accepted by all members if the UK went into negotiations with a realistic approach to their negotiations - instead they have acted like the EU owes them something and have pranced about basically with no plan at all for months. It has been absolutely shambolic.
 
NinjaFletch said:
Genuine question, given what you know now, and what has happened since, would you still vote to leave?
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Tough one and I still ask myself this very often. I was a Leaver but marginally (yes I may have come across a very very strong aggressive leaver but that was for effect and for debate, I thought all debates were being stupidly shut down too quickly IMHO).

Depends is my answer, I genuinely am shocked at how incompetently it has been executed. I think Boris would’ve been a better PM in immediate aftermath IMHO, at least held to account too, it’s all too easy for Brexiteers now, they (politicians) can say ‘well we would’ve made it work, but process was held to randsom’.

If you’re telling me let’s reverse time, I think I’d still vote Leave because I’d bet on May not being PM in the new version of events. If there was another vote now, I’d definitely vote Leave (and would vote Leave now I think even if I had originally voted Remain), because I think not leaving now would tear the country apart.
 
Member 5225 said:
Tough one and I still ask myself this very often. I was a Leaver but marginally (yes I may have come across a very very strong aggressive leaver but that was for effect and for debate, I thought all debates were being stupidly shut down too quickly IMHO).

Depends is my answer, I genuinely am shocked at how incompetently it has been executed. I think Boris would’ve been a better PM in immediate aftermath IMHO, at least held to account too, it’s all too easy for Brexiteers now, they (politicians) can say ‘well we would’ve made it work, but process was held to randsom’.

If you’re telling me let’s reverse time, I think I’d still vote Leave because I’d bet on May not being PM in the new version of events. If there was another vote now, I’d definitely vote Leave (and would vote Leave now I think even if I had originally voted Remain), because I think not leaving now would tear the country apart.
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Christ on a bike you have lost all credibility with that statement. fecking hell.
 
balaks said:
Well it may have been accepted by all members if the UK went into negotiations with a realistic approach to their negotiations - instead they have acted like the EU owes them something and have pranced about basically with no plan at all for months. It has been absolutely shambolic.
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Same could be said about EU tbh. They’re acting as if it’s all going swimmingly with them. I told colleagues here in Canada who are intrigued, I said Feb 2016 swung it for me, when Cameron begged for some consessions (or even agreement that things need to be looked-at), and the EU basically laughed him out of the room. And now with Brexit and recent national elections they’re all suddenly talking seriously and finally admit they need a few rethinks. Raw arrogance.
 
Member 5225 said:
Tough one and I still ask myself this very often. I was a Leaver but marginally (yes I may have come across a very very strong aggressive leaver but that was for effect and for debate, I thought all debates were being stupidly shut down too quickly IMHO).

Depends is my answer, I genuinely am shocked at how incompetently it has been executed. I think Boris would’ve been a better PM in immediate aftermath IMHO, at least held to account too, it’s all too easy for Brexiteers now, they (politicians) can say ‘well we would’ve made it work, but process was held to randsom’.

If you’re telling me let’s reverse time, I think I’d still vote Leave because I’d bet on May not being PM in the new version of events. If there was another vote now, I’d definitely vote Leave (and would vote Leave now I think even if I had originally voted Remain), because I think not leaving now would tear the country apart.
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Tbh, I think leaving (especially in the chaotic manner we're going to leave) is far more likely to tear the country apart than not, but we'll see.

You've said 'it depends', in what scenario could you envisage yourself becoming a Remainer?
 
Member 5225 said:
Same could be said about EU tbh. They’re acting as if it’s all going swimmingly with them. I told colleagues here in Canada who are intrigued, I said Feb 2016 swung it for me, when Cameron begged for some consessions (or even agreement that things need to be looked-at), and the EU basically laughed him out of the room. And now with Brexit and recent national elections they’re all suddenly talking seriously and finally admit they need a few rethinks. Raw arrogance.
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The EU hold all the cards and have had a clear strategy from the start - you are talking utter nonsense. What's depressing is that you are happy to spread this ill-informed dirge to people in Canada who won't know any better.
 
balaks said:
What is there to debate? If you honestly think that Boris would be a good PM and would do a good job at BREXIT negotiations then I don't know what to say. You and I are from totally different planets.
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Ironically he's got me on ignore because he's lost every single debate he's had with me:lol:
 
Member 5225 said:
Tough one and I still ask myself this very often. I was a Leaver but marginally (yes I may have come across a very very strong aggressive leaver but that was for effect and for debate, I thought all debates were being stupidly shut down too quickly IMHO).

Depends is my answer, I genuinely am shocked at how incompetently it has been executed. I think Boris would’ve been a better PM in immediate aftermath IMHO, at least held to account too, it’s all too easy for Brexiteers now, they (politicians) can say ‘well we would’ve made it work, but process was held to randsom’.

If you’re telling me let’s reverse time, I think I’d still vote Leave because I’d bet on May not being PM in the new version of events. If there was another vote now, I’d definitely vote Leave (and would vote Leave now I think even if I had originally voted Remain), because I think not leaving now would tear the country apart.
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What would the ideal Brexit under Boris look like for you?
 
balaks said:
The EU hold all the cards and have had a clear strategy from the start - you are talking utter nonsense. What's depressing is that you are happy to spread this ill-informed dirge to people in Canada who won't know any better.
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I'm sure they are rubbing their hands at the thought of no flights between Europe and the uk. currently there are no flight schedules on the popular airline sites to Europe after march 2019. To think that an agreement wont be done is madness.
 
Stanley Road said:
I'm sure they are rubbing their hands at the thought of no flights between Europe and the uk. currently there are no flight schedules on the popular airline sites to Europe after march 2019. To think that an agreement wont be done is madness.
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And yet here we are past the original deadline with nothing on the cards.
 
Stanley Road said:
I'm sure they are rubbing their hands at the thought of no flights between Europe and the uk. currently there are no flight schedules on the popular airline sites to Europe after march 2019. To think that an agreement wont be done is madness.
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I'm glad you are so confident because I have seen absolutely nothing to suggest that a deal is on the cards.
 
Stanley Road said:
Do you know whats in that 80%?
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I knew what was in the 75% and I'm sure if I looked it up I could find the other 5% .
One thing for sure is that the Irish border is not in it.

Edit:
The agreement is only about citizens rights, the Irish border, and the settlement bill.

Depending on what May caves in on will decide what access the UK gets after they leave.
People seem to be expecting some sort of trade deal for some unknown reason. That comes afterwards.
 
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Member 5225 said:
haha omg how is everyone so relaxed about that then. It’s almost 100% not going to be passed (by all 27). To the point above, either going to be used to get some personal concession to vote yes, or just hold it all up to create a scene / prove a point / ‘punish’ the UK etc
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Part of my job is negotiating with governments.... So yeah I'm pretty relaxed about it... It's standard negotiating stuff
 
sun_tzu said:
That there will be a big last minute kerfuffle and demands made to get the deal ratified by the 27 (if there is a deal... Which isn't certain at all)
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Eh.. so you are relaxed because there will be a 'big last minute kerfuffle' to make the final demands and then a deal (which there might not be) might get ratified? This is why you are relaxed? Can't say I'm overly sold on that. Was that meant to reassure us?
 
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