Meh... It's just negotiations... It's gonna go to the wire.
I run an international business... The ramifications are huge for me but no point in wasting energy or worrying just deal with the facts when they become clear
Brexited | the worst threads live the longest
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I run an international business... The ramifications are huge for me but no point in wasting energy or worrying just deal with the facts when they become clear
err I haven't. fake news mateIronically he's got me on ignore because he's lost every single debate he's had with me
ya ya, all the same (not).
Didn't some Belgium town bemusingly hold up the entire EU/Canada deal?
It's great on a Digestive.
Not exactly, Belgium are divided in three, each regions have a parliament and a say in certain domain like economy, agriculture and environment. Wallonia blocked the deal because they justifiably wanted clearer protections for EU agriculture, and environment.
My point is, can this not happen (perhaps by more regions) for the UK deal? It’s so much more emotive for Europeans, I’m guessing.
This has nothing to do with emotions. If the deal doesn't suit one of the member states then they can reject it, it's as simple as that.
Yes... And I think it's almost inevitable something similar could happen... But if it does they will extend article 50 by a few weeks whilst the EU sorts it out...(if they agree a deal)
This is only based on my own experience of negotiation with UK Dutch German Italian French Belgian and Spanish government's (and around 60 others outside the eu)and given the deals amount to only aFew billion it's small fry in comparison to this deal but translating that experience I think to the question that I was originally asked
Yes I believe even once a deal in principle is agreed it has to be ratified by 27 natiins
Yes I believe that process could (probably will )become a bit of a political football
But that does not concern me mutch as if a main deal is agreed I think the other Parts will ultimately fall into place with sufficient brinkmanship and politiking
I have to say I am Not certain about that... Done things have together unanimous (I think this does but I'm not 100% sure) and some are by certain majorities
What are you trying to say? I said "member states", I didn't mention the process for each country since they don't have the same.
I was talking about the 27 states ratification process and as I say I believe all 27 have to...or no deal... I'm just saying I'm not 100% sure That's the case (I've heard it is but never looked into it in detail)
yeah and what will happen with the Irish border?
Honestly I have no idea... If they agree a deal then very little... If they don't then I'd guess some infrastructure... Some checks and a whole bunch of ramifications
I actually quoted a job in Ireland last week and it had about 1 page of assumptions attached saying prices based on current trading conditions but... Work permits... Recognition of qualifications... Transport prices... Tariffs... Paperwork... Insurances etc all subject to change
I was in Whitehall last week and to say the area around the ni office was frenzied would be an understatement so if those guys dont know I sure as hell don't
If there is a deal (and at this point it is very much an if) my experience of negotiating things makes me think it will go down to the wire
I wanted us to remain... I still do... If we have to leave I certainly hope we do so with a deal
Right now I'd put the odds about 60/40 on there being no deal mostly influenced by the inability to find a workable compromise for all parties On ireland... Still I remain hopeful they figure something out
That said I stand by my thoughts that if somehow they do find a deal there will be plenty of side agendas to get it ratified in all the countries parliament's however I think (again last minute) they would get that over the line (or move the line)
Gut feel though no deal and lots of finger ppinting
I don't see the problem of the 27 members agreeing , after all Barnier is taking the instructions from them.
Do they agree Citizens rights - why shouldn't they?
Do they agree the amount or the construct of the settlement bill, already agreed.
Only real issue is the Irish border, why would the 27 disagree on this. The UK leaves the CU they break the GFA.
Thus the only fly in the ointment is the UK.
If the UK hadn't wasted over 2 years posturing about cherry picking, talks would have been so much further forward regarding trade and the thousands of other points. The transition period was there to give even more time to further those talks but the UK government seem to have blown everything by arguing amongst themselves since the referendum to not only have no deal but no transition period either. Unbelievable.
Do they agree Citizens rights - why shouldn't they?
Do they agree the amount or the construct of the settlement bill, already agreed.
Only real issue is the Irish border, why would the 27 disagree on this. The UK leaves the CU they break the GFA.
Thus the only fly in the ointment is the UK.
If the UK hadn't wasted over 2 years posturing about cherry picking, talks would have been so much further forward regarding trade and the thousands of other points. The transition period was there to give even more time to further those talks but the UK government seem to have blown everything by arguing amongst themselves since the referendum to not only have no deal but no transition period either. Unbelievable.
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Yes Wallonia, then they got a visit from Martin Schulz of Germany and changed their minds, although Germany don't run the show it must have been coincidence.
It's worth mentioning that Martin Schulz was the president of the European Parliament.
It's worth mentioning he is from Germany. I wonder what he said, any idea?
It's not really worth it, they met Tusk too and I don't see you claim that Poland are ruling the world.
Edit: And he didn't tell them much, they asked for a legally binding legal act that they obtained.
If theres a border there will be bombs.
Every member state have to ratify it but it's generally not an issue, Belgium is typically a country where it can be because the regions aren't directly involved in the preliminary negotiations, they are at the end of the process which is a good thing for Belgian democracy but not necessarily practical in supranational organization. Personally I kind of like the fact that ratifications aren't formalities, all national parliaments should have the same right.
Do you remember the 3 countries that disagreed with Junk( Tax haven king of Europe )being appointed? All had a meeting merkle and 2 caved, she's German by the way.
The president of the commission is elected at the qualified majority, they didn't need these 3 countries and juncker was no one candidate, everyone hates him but he has the quality of being a threat to no one. The president of the commission is one the many issues that I have with the was the EU works, national leaders will sometimes engage in ridiculous politicking that leads to feckwits like Juncker.
On a side note, I was reading mediapart the other day and apparently three names are currently doing the round for the next presidents Altmaier, Barnier, Selmayr and the name of Merkel is somehow doing the round.
Sadly that is a realistic outcome...
The momentum the movement behind a second referendum has gathered is impressive given it's something neither of the two main political parties advocate. I wouldn't bet against the Daily Mail calling for a 2nd referendum being on the cards. They seem to have taken a dramatically different turn since the new editor came in.
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Ah, you read the mail, it all makes sense now.
Taking back control of our lucrative financial services industry.
Deutsche to shift more assets and ringfence UK unit after Brexit
Blow to City as bank bows to ECB pressure and eyes moving up to €450bn in capital
https://www.ft.com/content/962ff0b0-b841-11e8-b3ef-799c8613f4a1
Deutsche to shift more assets and ringfence UK unit after Brexit
Blow to City as bank bows to ECB pressure and eyes moving up to €450bn in capital
https://www.ft.com/content/962ff0b0-b841-11e8-b3ef-799c8613f4a1
The different odds on Brexit are quite interesting.
According to Betfair markets, there is virtually no chance of a referendum being this year. Given that it's September, I can't disagree with that. Don;t really know why this market actually exists.
This initially seems strangely written as there is no "end of" in the title. But the extended info does state: "Will the United Kingdom officially leave the European Union before the 29/03/2019 - 23:59:59?". Officially the UK will leave at 11 pm on the 29th March 2019.
Judging by that, there is a roughly 33% chance Brexit will be delayed. There is definitely a few reasons this could happen; another financial crisis, ineptitude of the British government, change in parliamentary arithmetic, etc.
But, Brexit means Brexit. There is only around a 10-15% chance of Brexit not occurring at all before 2022. Market's seem to think that there is an equal chance of Brexit being delayed rather than stopped. (Note - this isn't a big market so the take this is all with a pinch of salt).
The markets think there is a 60% chance that May will survive to see the UK leave the EU.
Only £3,716 matched here, so take this with a huge dash of salt, but there is a roughly 72% chance that the UK will leave the EU before a general election is held.
Lastly, there is a roughly 30% chance that there will be another EU referendum before 2020. Before 2020, as in, in 2019 or 2018. A referendum in 2019, after we leave but in the implementation period is reasonably possible. And even more possible is one in 2020 before the end of it, which isn't covered.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.125350912
According to Betfair markets, there is virtually no chance of a referendum being this year. Given that it's September, I can't disagree with that. Don;t really know why this market actually exists.
This initially seems strangely written as there is no "end of" in the title. But the extended info does state: "Will the United Kingdom officially leave the European Union before the 29/03/2019 - 23:59:59?". Officially the UK will leave at 11 pm on the 29th March 2019.
Judging by that, there is a roughly 33% chance Brexit will be delayed. There is definitely a few reasons this could happen; another financial crisis, ineptitude of the British government, change in parliamentary arithmetic, etc.
But, Brexit means Brexit. There is only around a 10-15% chance of Brexit not occurring at all before 2022. Market's seem to think that there is an equal chance of Brexit being delayed rather than stopped. (Note - this isn't a big market so the take this is all with a pinch of salt).
The markets think there is a 60% chance that May will survive to see the UK leave the EU.
Only £3,716 matched here, so take this with a huge dash of salt, but there is a roughly 72% chance that the UK will leave the EU before a general election is held.
Lastly, there is a roughly 30% chance that there will be another EU referendum before 2020. Before 2020, as in, in 2019 or 2018. A referendum in 2019, after we leave but in the implementation period is reasonably possible. And even more possible is one in 2020 before the end of it, which isn't covered.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.125350912
Ex-CBI chief lambasts EU leaders and UK over citizens' rights post-Brexit
Slightly more balanced than caf hysteria
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...mbasts-eu-leaders-and-uk-over-citizens-rights
Slightly more balanced than caf hysteria
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...mbasts-eu-leaders-and-uk-over-citizens-rights
Don't get hysterical, NL won't chuck you out.
What people don't know though in Europe is if they rely on healthcare or their pension from the UK.
Should have been sorted out last year but we all know why it wasn't.
For EU citizens in the UK, wouldn't trust the UK government at all.
Food and Brexit: will our cupboards be bare?
From farmers and poultry producers to professors of food policy, those on the frontline have been sounding the alarm. So how will the UK cope after 29 March 2019?:
https://www.theguardian.com/food/2018/sep/15/food-and-brexit-will-the-cupboard-be-bare-jay-rayner
From farmers and poultry producers to professors of food policy, those on the frontline have been sounding the alarm. So how will the UK cope after 29 March 2019?:
https://www.theguardian.com/food/2018/sep/15/food-and-brexit-will-the-cupboard-be-bare-jay-rayner
lol, im not hysterical about anything as ive said a million times not much will change.
Just pointing out this dude is rightly telling the eu to pull their fingers out too. But you can carry on pointing the finger at one party if you like.
The agreement is there and has been there since last December but the UK won't sign it because they have no solution to the Irish Border. That's what the 75/80% is about including the settlement bill, the bit that's missing is the Irish border.
Why do you think the UK government keep saying about taking the emphasis away from the border, why do you think the UK government keep saying about the settlement bill and threatening not to pay it. Why do you think they say nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.
The reason is that the crux of Brexit is the Irish border. All the delays are coming to an end, it's decision time very shortly.
Either they break the GFA which doesn't only affect Ireland but the whole relationship, they accept the border to be in the Irish Sea which is really a no-goer or they stay in the CU which in effect breaks Brexit.
UK citizens in the EU won't be thrown out. But they'll have to be able to support themselves and as I said if they are reliant on pensions which could be worthless if the pound collapses, which we won't know until there is definitely a no deal or what the arrangements for healthcare will be.
What do you expect the EU to do, no-one knows what the UK are going to do. If the UK government hadn't been so inept this would have been sorted long ago.
I was merely responding to your hysteria quip. I mean werent you the one shouting 'Oh no's' as you queued up at the French passport office?
Personally I've been one step ahead in the whole process so that whatever happened, my life or my family's life would not be affected by a bunch of idiots or having to rely on the UK government for anything whatsoever.
Other people do rely on the whims of the UK government and have sympathy for them.
Whatever happens now will not affect me.