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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
sun_tzu said:
technically I think both sides are responsible for the implementation? - I believe there is an obligation on both sides to perform customs checks isnt there?
https://fullfact.org/europe/eu-referendum-and-irish-border/


But yeah as they struggle for a deal till December? it will leave 3 months or so and as you say nobody wants to be seen to do anything as its admiting the talks cant work - and then in 3 months I'm sure it will be difficut / impossible to put anything in place (technology or sufficient infra to allow for checks and queues etc)
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If one ignores the GFA and extra problems in Ireland in effect it should be the same as the UK/French border with infrastructure on both sides and have the same checks.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
If one ignores the GFA and extra problems in Ireland in effect it should be the same as the UK/French border with infrastructure on both sides and have the same checks.
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kind of - I mean there are a lot more potential crossing points as its a land boarder so I think you have to mannage it differently - but for sure on the main haulage routes you would expect there to need to be some infra of some kind - and that its self will probably have a planning consent period that means you couldnt even get permission to build it (let alone design and actually build it) in the time frame required - even if its all supder duper computer stuff - its still going to need stuff around it
 
sun_tzu said:
kind of - I mean there are a lot more potential crossing points as its a land boarder so I think you have to mannage it differently - but for sure on the main haulage routes you would expect there to need to be some infra of some kind - and that its self will probably have a planning consent period that means you couldnt even get permission to build it (let alone design and actually build it) in the time frame required - even if its all supder duper computer stuff - its still going to need stuff around it
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It's not going to work. There are hundreds of different routes over the border with many roads actually crossing the border several times - all this would do is cause travel chaos on the main Belfast to Dublin motorway (on which millions of pounds have been spent from ROI and UK to get to a stage that a quick and easy route is available after years of awful infrastructure) and divert many people onto one of the many cross border roads that are everywhere in that area. Not only this but neither ROI nor Northern Ireland voted for BREXIT and neither country want it so I can't imagine there is a huge amount of motivation on either side to build this kind of infrastructure at all. There simply has to be an agreement for a joint custom area between the two areas - I can't see any other possible option.
 
balaks said:
It's not going to work. There are hundreds of different routes over the border with many roads actually crossing the border several times - all this would do is cause travel chaos on the main Belfast to Dublin motorway (on which millions of pounds have been spent from ROI and UK to get to a stage that a quick and easy route is available after years of awful infrastructure) and divert many people onto one of the many cross border roads that are everywhere in that area. Not only this but neither ROI nor Northern Ireland voted for BREXIT and neither country want it so I can't imagine there is a huge amount of motivation on either side to build this kind of infrastructure at all. There simply has to be an agreement for a joint custom area between the two areas - I can't see any other possible option.
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It would seem logical ... I'm just not sure may could get that kind of deal through (brexit lobby and unionists) unless labour would back it but I doubt they would
 
sun_tzu said:
It would seem logical ... I'm just not sure may could get that kind of deal through (brexit lobby and unionists) unless labour would back it but I doubt they would
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They have no choice but to agree that deal - they can dance around it all they want (which they have for months) but there is no viable alternative.
 
balaks said:
They have no choice but to agree that deal - they can dance around it all they want (which they have for months) but there is no viable alternative.
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the "viable" alternative is to say the eu are being nasty and deliberately obstructing a deal and therefore we are leaving making ourselves a tax haven... slashing red tape and starting a trade war (with our good buddie don)... I think its a shit idea but I think its more likley than the conservatives getting that deal passed
 
Watching May or Corbyn give non-answers to simple questions is so infuriating. Have we ever had two main party leaders this useless?
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Sounds exactly what he's been saying all along, the important part which is also what he's been saying all along is

"We respect Britain’s red lines scrupulously. In return, they must respect what we are," Barnier said. "Single market means single market, there is no single market a la carte."
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Indeed though ...

"the EU is preparing to offer a partnership with Britain such has never been with any third country."

Clearly no great detail about the partnership and of course it won't be full access to the single market but certainly some hope?
 
She's so scripted, it's unbelievable. Imagine having dinner with her?
 
Adisa said:
She's so scripted, it's unbelievable. Imagine having dinner with her?
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I bet her idea of a nice dinner is boiled potatoes, boiled brisket, grey vegetables and the hearts of young poor kids.
 
sun_tzu said:
Indeed though ...

"the EU is preparing to offer a partnership with Britain such has never been with any third country."

Clearly no great detail about the partnership and of course it won't be full access to the single market but certainly some hope?
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I'm sure he said exactly the same thing some time ago, whether I can find it is another matter.
The UK will be undoubtedly be offered a partnership no other country outside the EU has but it will have conditions, which the UK then have to accept and I think we have a pretty good idea what they will be.
 
"the EU is preparing to offer a partnership with Britain such has never been with any third country."

Do the EFTA nations not count?
 
Like no other it doesn't mean that is better or worse. Simply different. Not lying there probably

Question for the experts in the Caf. Ones the UK is out, the other countries/commercial blocks, could resign the commercial trade agreements as they signed for the UK to be in the EU when they sign it?
 
4bars said:
Like no other it doesn't mean that is better or worse. Simply different. Not lying there probably

Question for the experts in the Caf. Ones the UK is out, the other countries/commercial blocks, could resign the commercial trade agreements as they signed for the UK to be in the EU when they sign it?
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Don't understand your question. Are you asking if other countries get the option of UK's post brexit deal?
 
4bars said:
Like no other it doesn't mean that is better or worse. Simply different. Not lying there probably

Question for the experts in the Caf. Ones the UK is out, the other countries/commercial blocks, could resign the commercial trade agreements as they signed for the UK to be in the EU when they sign it?
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You mean could other countries just offer the EU trade terms to the UK... Yes they could but it's probably not in their best interest as the UK is of course a lot smaller than the EU in total the other countries could most probably get better terms... Also where for example the EU deal may have had clauses to say protect olive growers these parts of a deal serve no purpose to the UK... Probably a new deal is the best solution for both parties (or at least one) but these of course take time
 
No, Sorry.

I meant when a trade deal between EU and country X was signed before Brexit, can country X say that the conditions had changed as they were counting on the UK being inside the EU (because some kind of specific export-imports that UK has) and they resign the the trade deal? or a renegotiation?
 
4bars said:
No, Sorry.

I meant when a trade deal between EU and country X was signed before Brexit, can country X say that the conditions had changed as they were counting on the UK being inside the EU (because some kind of specific export-imports that UK has) and they resign the the trade deal? or a renegotiation?
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All trade deals the UK had whilst members of the EU are cancelled as soon as they leave the EU and have to be renegotiated.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Sorry, no, the agreement is with the whole market which could in future also include other countries that may join. Presumably if country X wanted a specific trade deal with the UK they would negotiate a new trade deal with the UK.
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I agree with adding up countries, but maybe not shrinking. Though I guess it might appear in the trade deal somewhere
 
4bars said:
I agree with adding up countries, but maybe not shrinking. Though I guess it might appear in the trade deal somewhere
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Here you have your answer, if you look at CETA:

Geographical scope of application Unless otherwise specified,

this Agreement applies:
(a) for Canada, to: (i) the land territory, air space, internal waters, and territorial sea of Canada; (ii) the exclusive economic zone of Canada, as determined by its domestic law, consistent with Part V of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, done at Montego Bay on 10 December 1982 (“UNCLOS”); and, (iii) the continental shelf of Canada, as determined by its domestic law, consistent with Part VI of UNCLOS;

(b) for the European Union, to the territories in which the Treaty on European Union and the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union are applied and under the conditions laid down in those Treaties. As regards the provisions concerning the tariff treatment of goods, this Agreement shall also apply to the areas of the European Union customs territory not covered by the first sentence of this subparagraph
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Massive Spanner said:
How do you mean? Three of them have big borders with EU countries.

Also the Irish border is basically non negotiable so I'm not sure what part it could play in a special deal.
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But these borders aren't a problem, they are controlled.
 
JPRouve said:
But these borders aren't a problem, they are controlled.
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I'm still struggling to see what that has to do anything. There are numerous examples of EFTA countries with borders with the EU, much larger borders, so why would Ireland be different if it had to come to that exactly?
 
Massive Spanner said:
I'm still struggling to see what that has to do anything. There are numerous examples of EFTA countries with borders with the EU, much larger borders, so why would Ireland be different if it had to come to that exactly?
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I have no idea why EFTA was mentioned in the first place, they are not a third party when it comes to the EEA, they are part of it.
 
Massive Spanner said:
How do you mean? Three of them have big borders with EU countries.

Also the Irish border is basically non negotiable so I'm not sure what part it could play in a special deal.
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Because someone has to solve the problem of not having a hard border which means NI has to be part of the Customs Union which is not the case with the 4 EFTA members.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Because someone has to solve the problem of not having a hard border which means NI has to be part of the Customs Union which is not the case with the 4 EFTA members.
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But they're all in the Schengen which is basically the same as the CTA isn't it? I know there are "borders" but isn't that more so the countries themselves enforcing them?
 
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