Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

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Jippy said:
The project fear double bluff. It genuinely annoys me that this is the quality of information people are getting about the Brexit negotiations.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7107410/eu-diplomats-no-flights-no-ships-brexit/
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I would be more annoyed if the conversation wasn't so alienating and well.....fecking boring. I try for the most to stay engaged with the negotiations process and the basic come away I get is that well it's a pretty stupid idea to go through with but to actual stop it is to rid the idea that democracy has any meaning in the UK(Which would be a very bad thing to happen and will act like jet fuel to far right poltics).

The conversation has just ended up between two odd fringe groups of the population. The first being hard Brexit people who will happily stick a border up again in the north of Ireland and potentially crash the economy so long as we can take away tv's from prisoners. The second group being remain people who have fixation on mental health(Did you know everyone else is ''INSANE'' and ''MENTAL'')and a nauseating lack of self awareness.

So why listen to Michel Barnier give the same speech for the millionth time explaining the UK government is doing feck all and to then have that speech examined by either a spectator writer who thinks Churchill wasn't a massive racist bastard(He really was) or guardian writer/summer house owner. Because there is a alternative to all of this alienating nonsense which is I have a really nice blu-ray version of John Carpenter The Thing at home.
 
Imagine, the argument for brexit is that it won't be the end of the world.
 
She is also expecting to have a deal by October, the EU summit is in 51 days time.

Of the withdrawal agreement 75% was agreed more than 8 months ago. 80% was supposedly agreed in April and has not progressed since. Yet the remaining 20% will supposedly be agreed within 8 weeks. So the UK will cave in and remain in the CU and SM then?
 
As Theresa May is trying to encourage the private sector to diversify trade away from the EU (because it's too easy??) and encourage more trade with the rest of the world (because it's much more difficult??) and thus her current journey to several African countries to promote this.

Now, some little UK company who currently sells products to some other company in the EU, just needs to load it on a truck or a plane with a packing list and an invoice and knowing that the product he is selling conforms to EU regulations.

Instead she wants him now to sell his product to a company in Nigeria for example.

Without taking into account the shipment time, the severe delays in Nigerian ports, inspection in the port when it arrives, shortage of foreign exchange to pay and that is if all goes reasonably smoothly, here is part of the other things this little company will need to do:

GUIDELINES

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  1. Any person intending to import physical goods into Nigeria shall in the first instance process e-Form "M" through any Authorized dealer bank irrespective of the value and whether or not payment is involved;
  2. The initial validity period of an approved e-Form "M" for general merchandise shall be 180 days, which may be extended for 180 days by the Authorized Dealer Bank. For capital goods, the initial validity of an approved e-Form "M" shall be 365 days subject to a maximum extension of another 365days. However, any subsequent request for subsequent revalidation of e-Form "M" shall be forwarded to the Director Trade and Exchange Department, Central Bank of Nigeria, for consideration.
  3. Supporting documents shall be clearly marked "Valid For Forex/Not Valid for Forex" as appropriate i.e. depending on whether or not foreign exchange remittance would be involved.
  4. All applications for goods subject to Destination Inspection shall carry the " BA" code, while those exempted shall include "CB" in the prefix of the numbering system of the e-Form "M". Payments for goods exempted from Destination Inspection under the Scheme, would not be carried out in the Foreign Exchange Market, without a prior approval from the Central Bank of Nigeria. The list of goods exempted from Destination Inspection shall be as approved by the Honourable Minister of Finance and the approval shall be a pre-condition for the completion of e-Form M exempted from Destination Inspection.
  5. The e-Form �M� and the relevant pro-forma invoice ( which shall have a validity period of three months) shall carry a proper description of the goods to be imported to facilitate price verification viz;
    1. Generic product name, i.e. product type, category;
    2. Mark or brand name of the product where applicable;
    3. Model name and or model or reference number. where applicable;
    4. Description of the quality, grade, specification, capacity, size, performance etc.
    5. Quantity and packaging and/or packing.
  6. e-Form �M� shall be valid for importation only after registration by the Nigeria Customs Service (NCS). Consequently, Authorized Dealer Banks are to confirm registration of the e-Form M before proceeding with other import processes.
  7. Documents in respect of each import transaction shall carry the name of the product, country of origin, specifications, date of manufacture, batch or lot number, Standards to which the goods have been produced (e.g. NIS, British Standards � PD. ISO, IES, DIN, etc).
  8. All goods to be imported into the country shall be labeled in ENGLISH in addition to any other language of transaction; otherwise the goods shall be confiscated.
  9. Where import items such as food, drinks, cosmetics, drugs, medical devices, chemicals, etc. are regulated for health or environmental reasons, they shall carry EXPIRY dates or the shelf life ( minimum of half shelf life at the time of importation) and specify the active ingredients, where applicable.
  10. Electrical appliances (fluorescent lamps, electric bulbs, electric irons and ties, etc) shall carry information on life performance while cables shall carry information on the ratings.
  11. All electronic equipment and instruments shall carry:
    1. Instruction Manual;
    2. Safety information and/or safety signs;
    3. A guarantee/warranty of at least six months.
  12. Any false or fraudulent misrepresentation of facts will result in delays and/or impoundment/seizures.
  13. Importation of products not properly labeled shall automatically qualify for seizure and destruction without warning, and subject to prosecution.
  14. All imports into the country shall be accompanied by the following documents:
    1. Combined Certificate of Value and Origin (CCVO), and shall contain the following information:
      1. e-Form "M" no.
      2. Adequate description of goods
      3. Port of destination (The actual port shall be specified e.g. Tin Can, Apapa, Kano, Onne, etc.)
      4. Shipment identification, date of shipment, Country of Origin, Country of supply
    2. Final/Commercial Invoice
    3. Packing list
    4. Shipped/ Clean on Board Bill of Lading/Airway bill/Way bill/Road Way bill
    5. Manufacturer�s Certificate of production, the Phytosanitary Certificate or Chemical Analysis Report, which shall state standards, where applicable, should be made available.
    6. Laboratory test certificates for chemicals, foods, beverages, pharmaceuticals, electrical appliances and other regulated products, where applicable.
  15. The following procedure shall be adopted for payments for:
    1. Letters of credit transactions: where the transactions involve issuance of Certificate of Capital Importation (CCI) and or supplier�s credit, all negotiating documents and or shipping documents (as may be applicable), must be routed from the Beneficiary/Supplier through his/her bank to the correspondence bank of the issuing bank and thereafter to the issuing bank. For the avoidance of doubt, on no account must banks endorse or pay on documents which do not comply with the routing outlined Above.
    2. For Bills for Collection transactions and Unconfirmed Letters of Credit, documents must come to the issuing bank either directly from the supplier�s bank or through the offshore correspondent of the issuing bank.
    3. For 'Not Valid' for foreign exchange transactions (which do not require foreign exchange transfer), the supplier should forward the documents directly to the applicant bank that validates the e-Form M.
  16. For transactions with Post Landing charges, a retention fee of 5 – 15% of the project cost as agreed between the importer and the overseas supplier shall be indicated on both the Contract Agreement and the Pro-forma invoice which shall form part of the supporting documents for the registration of relevant e-Form M. In addition,
    1. the stated fee shall not be remitted until a satisfactory evaluation of the project has been undertaken by the Industrial Inspectorate Department of the Federal Ministry of Industry
    2. The Authorized Dealer Bank shall forward to the Nigeria Customs Service (NCS), Federal Ministry of Industry (Industrial Inspectorate Department) and the Central Bank of Nigeria , Trade and Exchange Department copies of the Contract Agreement and Pro-forma invoice of such projects for monitoring purposes.
    3. The Nigeria Customs Service shall take cognizance of the value of shipment and Post Landing charges as would have been indicated on the Pre Arrival Assessment Report (PAAR)
    4. The Industrial Inspectorate Department, Federal Ministry of Industry shall thereafter carry out an evaluation of the project and advise the Central Bank of Nigeria accordingly
    5. On receipt of the report of the evaluation from the Federal Ministry of Industry (Industrial Inspectorate Department), the Central Bank of Nigeria shall advise the NCS on the issuance of the PAAR in respect of the retained value and the Authorized Dealer Bank advised to remit same to the beneficiary.
  17. Buying Commission: The percentatge of buying commission to be paid to agents or confirming house acting as intermediary between importers and exporters is a maximum of 2% of the FOB value of the consignment, where applicable.
 
They don't want the public to know the true scale of the impact.
 
Kentonio said:
It makes no sense to me. If she wants to push MPs to accept her plan, then surely she'd WANT them to see the consequences of rejecting it? Or am I missing something?
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It's not the MPs she wants to keep in the dark.
 
SteveJ said:
They don't want the public to know the true scale of the impact.
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Adisa said:
It's not the MPs she wants to keep in the dark.
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But again, if she genuinely wants her Chequers plan to be voted for, then it’s in her total interest for everyone to be shit scared of the alternative. Not today, but just before the vote surely? If she hides it and they vote down her plan, then she’ll be blamed for not telling people the consequences.

I can only see it as yet another part of the Tory infighting. That if she shows MPs the full impact, that the JRM crowd will turn on her fully.
 
Kentonio said:
But again, if she genuinely wants her Chequers plan to be voted for, then it’s in her total interest for everyone to be shit scared of the alternative. Not today, but just before the vote surely? If she hides it and they vote down her plan, then she’ll be blamed for not telling people the consequences.

I can only see it as yet another part of the Tory infighting. That if she shows MPs the full impact, that the JRM crowd will turn on her fully.
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Chequers is long dead, the EU rejects it and so do the Brexiters. There will be no vote on it.
 
Kentonio said:
I’m assuming by then the ‘Chequers plan’ will have changed substantially after the EU insist on changes.
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The EU will insist that the 4 freedoms are not compromised and the Chequers plan is so far away from that, she'll have to think of another name.
At this moment in time I don't see anything but a no deal because I don't see how either or both sides can compromise.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
The EU will insist that the 4 freedoms are not compromised and the Chequers plan is so far away from that, she'll have to think of another name.
At this moment in time I don't see anything but a no deal because I don't see how either or both sides can compromise.
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I think she’s more likely to try and claim it’s not that different (despite being substantially different). There’s only so many times she can openly change position publicly.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
The EU will insist that the 4 freedoms are not compromised and the Chequers plan is so far away from that, she'll have to think of another name.
At this moment in time I don't see anything but a no deal because I don't see how either or both sides can compromise.
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The EU has a track record of fudgy compromises that continuously kick the can down the road (see Greece). I can see that happening, woth transition periods and alignment etc.
 
Kentonio said:
I think she’s more likely to try and claim it’s not that different (despite being substantially different). There’s only so many times she can openly change position publicly.
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One of the big problems is the Customs Union, stay in that and the big boast of doing their own deals goes out the window. But there is so much more that needs changing.

GloryHunter07 said:
The EU has a track record of fudgy compromises that continuously kick the can down the road (see Greece). I can see that happening, woth transition periods and alignment etc.
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I think this is different, I can't see them compromising on anything that threatens the four freedoms. Haven't seen any sign of anyone in the EU who wants to compromise.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
I think this is different, I can't see them compromising on anything that threatens the four freedoms. Haven't seen any sign of anyone in the EU who wants to compromise.
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Its possible that they find a fudge where they arent seen to be compromising (like a transition period). Time will tell.
 
GloryHunter07 said:
Its possible that they find a fudge where they arent seen to be compromising (like a transition period). Time will tell.
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Not much time though. I am excited to see which will be the outcome. It will be the UK screaming in panic or Nobody happy for a compromise that does not fulfill anyone
 
GloryHunter07 said:
Its possible that they find a fudge where they arent seen to be compromising (like a transition period). Time will tell.
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A transition period seems the only possibility but then the UK would have to accept things as they are for that duration, don't see how that will be accepted by the UK, and eventually the transition period ends and everyone's back to roughly where we are now. There's not long to go before we find out.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
A transition period seems the only possibility but then the UK would have to accept things as they are for that duration, don't see how that will be accepted by the UK, and eventually the transition period ends and everyone's back to roughly where we are now. There's not long to go before we find out.
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DO you think a transition period is possible? Maybe continue like that for a a couple of years?
 
4bars said:
DO you think a transition period is possible? Maybe continue like that for a a couple of years?
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For me it's the only likely alternative to a crash out in March but that's if May can convince everyone to carry on as they are until the end of 2020. But the UK still leave the EU in March whatever. The Brexiters are restless. Don't really see them waiting for four and a half years after the referendum and then what, the same problems will be there on 1st January 2021 as they will on 30th March 2019.
 
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