Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
See now i can't help procrastinating...I've got

12 layers of red tape,
11 border crossings,
10-tion in Ireland
Nien trade deals,
8.5 net contribution,
7 years of Boris,
6 banks be leaving,
5 million freezing,
Four-ty miles of traffic,
3-dom of movement,
2 Bent bannans
And a boat full of OAPs

Here all week folks :lol:
My chest.
 
Ouch chancellor just confirmed no deal= 5-10% off GDP.
Will post the full release when I get in.
 
See now i can't help procrastinating...I've got

12 layers of red tape,
11 border crossings,
10-tion in Ireland
Nien trade deals,
8.5 net contribution,
7 years of Boris,
6 banks be leaving,
5 million freezing,
Four-ty miles of traffic,
3-dom of movement,
2 Bent bannans
And a boat full of OAPs

Here all week folks :lol:
:lol: Excellent.
 
See now i can't help procrastinating...I've got

12 layers of red tape,
11 border crossings,
10-tion in Ireland
Nien trade deals,
8.5 net contribution,
7 years of Boris,
6 banks be leaving,
5 million freezing,
Four-ty miles of traffic,
3-dom of movement,
2 Bent bannans
And a boat full of OAPs

Here all week folks :lol:
Brilliant post.
 
For immediate release

Chancellor confirms forecast of “No Deal” Brexit economic hit

In response to a letter from Rt Hon Nicky Morgan MP, Chair of the Treasury Committee, requesting the Treasury provide the Committee with its detailed impact assessment of a no deal Brexit, the Chancellor has responded by confirming that a no deal / WTO Brexit will result in a 5% – 10% hit to UK GDP with the largest negative impacts being felt in the North East and Northern Ireland.

Additionally, the Government’s “No Deal” Brexit notices have highlighted the difficulties that will be faced under a no deal scenario, including:

Financial Services

· EEA-based customers of UK firms currently passporting into the EEA, including UK citizens living in the EEA, may lose the ability to access existing lending and deposit services, insurance contracts (such as a life insurance contracts and annuities or pensions) due to UK firms losing their rights to passport into the EEA, affecting the ability of their EEA customers to continue accessing their services.

Customs

Before importing goods from the EU, a business will need to:

· Register for an UK Economic Operator Registration and Identification (EORI) number. Businesses do not need to do anything now. There will be further information available later in the year. For those businesses that sign up for the EU Email updates, they will be contacted when this service becomes available.

· Ensure their contracts and International Terms and Conditions of Service (INCOTERMS) reflect that they are now an importer.

· Consider how they will submit import declarations, including whether to engage a customs broker, freight forwarder or logistics provider (businesses that want to do this themselves will need to acquire the appropriate software and secure the necessary authorisations from HMRC). Engaging a customs broker or acquiring the appropriate software and authorisations form HMRC will come at a cost.

· decide the correct classification and value of their goods and enter this on the customs declaration.

When importing goods from the EU, a business will need to:

· Have a valid EORI number.

· Make sure that their carrier has submitted an Entry Summary Declaration at the appropriate time.

· Submit an import declaration to HMRC using their software, or get their customs broker, freight forwarder or logistics provider to do this for them.

· Pay Value Added Tax (VAT) and import duties including excise duty on excise goods unless the goods are entered into duty suspension (for example a customs or excise warehouse – a financial security will be required to cover the duty liability of the goods whilst they are being moved to the warehouse).

· Once excise goods leave a customs suspensive arrangement, they may be immediately entered into an excise duty suspension regime. A business will need to declare the goods on EMCS for onward movement via a Registered Consignor.

Tariffs

In the event of “no deal”, goods traded between the UK and the EU after 23h on 29 March 2019 will be subject to the same requirements as third country goods, including the payment of duty. Under World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules, the principle of most-favoured-nation (MFN) treatment means that, unless a preferential agreement is in place, the same rate of duty, on the same good, must be charged to all WTO members equally.

· In a ‘no deal’ scenario, trade with the EU will be on non-preferential, WTO terms. This means that MFN tariffs and non-preferential rules of origin would apply to consignments between the UK and EU.

· The EU will apply its MFN rates to goods imported into the EU from the UK.

· The UK will apply its MFN rates to goods imported into the UK from the EU. The government will determine and publish these new UK duty rates before we leave the EU.

VAT

In the event of “no deal” all goods entering the UK as parcels sent by overseas businesses will be liable for VAT (unless they are already relieved from VAT under domestic rules, for example zero-rated children’s clothing).

· For parcels valued up to and including £135, a technology-based solution will allow VAT to be collected from the overseas business selling the goods into the UK. Overseas businesses will charge VAT at the point of purchase and will be expected to register with an HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) digital service and account for VAT due.

On the impact of “No Deal” on the UK economy, Mrs Morgan said:

“The Chancellor has confirmed that the Government forecasts a disastrous hit to our economy and living standards in the event of a ‘no deal’ Brexit. The Committee will expect an updated analysis to be published in good time to inform Parliament’s key decisions on the final deal.

“The Chancellor has not committed to producing an analysis of the short-term economic fallout of a ‘no deal’ Brexit. The Committee will continue to press the Treasury for a robust and high-quality short- and long-term analyses of the economic consequences of Brexit so that Parliament can take properly informed decisions in the coming months.

“The Committee also continues to engage with the Bank of England and the OBR on their analyses of the short-term impact of Brexit.”

On the “No Deal” Brexit notices, Mrs Morgan said:

“The ‘No Deal’ Brexit notices have highlighted the myriad of additional tariffs, taxes, and red tape that businesses and households would need to comply with in order to go about their day-to-day lives.

“The British citizens living in the EU who may lose access to their pensions and other basic financial services such as their current accounts will be extremely concerned.

“It is clear that the Government’s mantra that “no deal is better than a bad deal” is dead in the water, and that no deal is in fact a very, very bad deal.”

--Ends--

Notes to Editors

· The Government’s “No Deal” Brexit Notices have been published here:

· The Chancellor’s letter to Nicky Morgan on the economic impact of “No Deal” has been published here:
 
For immediate release

Chancellor confirms forecast of “No Deal” Brexit economic hit

In response to a letter from Rt Hon Nicky Morgan MP, Chair of the Treasury Committee, requesting the Treasury provide the Committee with its detailed impact assessment of a no deal Brexit, the Chancellor has responded by confirming that a no deal / WTO Brexit will result in a 5% – 10% hit to UK GDP with the largest negative impacts being felt in the North East and Northern Ireland.

Additionally, the Government’s “No Deal” Brexit notices have highlighted the difficulties that will be faced under a no deal scenario, including:

Financial Services

· EEA-based customers of UK firms currently passporting into the EEA, including UK citizens living in the EEA, may lose the ability to access existing lending and deposit services, insurance contracts (such as a life insurance contracts and annuities or pensions) due to UK firms losing their rights to passport into the EEA, affecting the ability of their EEA customers to continue accessing their services.

Customs

Before importing goods from the EU, a business will need to:

· Register for an UK Economic Operator Registration and Identification (EORI) number. Businesses do not need to do anything now. There will be further information available later in the year. For those businesses that sign up for the EU Email updates, they will be contacted when this service becomes available.

· Ensure their contracts and International Terms and Conditions of Service (INCOTERMS) reflect that they are now an importer.

· Consider how they will submit import declarations, including whether to engage a customs broker, freight forwarder or logistics provider (businesses that want to do this themselves will need to acquire the appropriate software and secure the necessary authorisations from HMRC). Engaging a customs broker or acquiring the appropriate software and authorisations form HMRC will come at a cost.

· decide the correct classification and value of their goods and enter this on the customs declaration.

When importing goods from the EU, a business will need to:

· Have a valid EORI number.

· Make sure that their carrier has submitted an Entry Summary Declaration at the appropriate time.

· Submit an import declaration to HMRC using their software, or get their customs broker, freight forwarder or logistics provider to do this for them.

· Pay Value Added Tax (VAT) and import duties including excise duty on excise goods unless the goods are entered into duty suspension (for example a customs or excise warehouse – a financial security will be required to cover the duty liability of the goods whilst they are being moved to the warehouse).

· Once excise goods leave a customs suspensive arrangement, they may be immediately entered into an excise duty suspension regime. A business will need to declare the goods on EMCS for onward movement via a Registered Consignor.

Tariffs

In the event of “no deal”, goods traded between the UK and the EU after 23h on 29 March 2019 will be subject to the same requirements as third country goods, including the payment of duty. Under World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules, the principle of most-favoured-nation (MFN) treatment means that, unless a preferential agreement is in place, the same rate of duty, on the same good, must be charged to all WTO members equally.

· In a ‘no deal’ scenario, trade with the EU will be on non-preferential, WTO terms. This means that MFN tariffs and non-preferential rules of origin would apply to consignments between the UK and EU.

· The EU will apply its MFN rates to goods imported into the EU from the UK.

· The UK will apply its MFN rates to goods imported into the UK from the EU. The government will determine and publish these new UK duty rates before we leave the EU.

VAT

In the event of “no deal” all goods entering the UK as parcels sent by overseas businesses will be liable for VAT (unless they are already relieved from VAT under domestic rules, for example zero-rated children’s clothing).

· For parcels valued up to and including £135, a technology-based solution will allow VAT to be collected from the overseas business selling the goods into the UK. Overseas businesses will charge VAT at the point of purchase and will be expected to register with an HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) digital service and account for VAT due.

On the impact of “No Deal” on the UK economy, Mrs Morgan said:

“The Chancellor has confirmed that the Government forecasts a disastrous hit to our economy and living standards in the event of a ‘no deal’ Brexit. The Committee will expect an updated analysis to be published in good time to inform Parliament’s key decisions on the final deal.

“The Chancellor has not committed to producing an analysis of the short-term economic fallout of a ‘no deal’ Brexit. The Committee will continue to press the Treasury for a robust and high-quality short- and long-term analyses of the economic consequences of Brexit so that Parliament can take properly informed decisions in the coming months.

“The Committee also continues to engage with the Bank of England and the OBR on their analyses of the short-term impact of Brexit.”

On the “No Deal” Brexit notices, Mrs Morgan said:

“The ‘No Deal’ Brexit notices have highlighted the myriad of additional tariffs, taxes, and red tape that businesses and households would need to comply with in order to go about their day-to-day lives.

“The British citizens living in the EU who may lose access to their pensions and other basic financial services such as their current accounts will be extremely concerned.

“It is clear that the Government’s mantra that “no deal is better than a bad deal” is dead in the water, and that no deal is in fact a very, very bad deal.”

--Ends--

Notes to Editors

· The Government’s “No Deal” Brexit Notices have been published here:

· The Chancellor’s letter to Nicky Morgan on the economic impact of “No Deal” has been published here:

And this is just the tip of the iceberg, the utopian vision of the Brexiteers.
 
And this is just the tip of the iceberg, the utopian vision of the Brexiteers.
Yup, makes for bleak reading. All project fear of course. It's going to take a generation or more to get over this economically.
 
Yup, makes for bleak reading. All project fear of course. It's going to take a generation or more to get over this economically.

VAT

In the event of “no deal” all goods entering the UK as parcels sent by overseas businesses will be liable for VAT (unless they are already relieved from VAT under domestic rules, for example zero-rated children’s clothing).

· For parcels valued up to and including £135, a technology-based solution will allow VAT to be collected from the overseas business selling the goods into the UK. Overseas businesses will charge VAT at the point of purchase and will be expected to register with an HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) digital service and account for VAT due.


I've just noticed the above. They expect the overseas business to work on behalf of the HMRC, they've got to be jesting. Hope they've already got an agreement with every single business in the whole of the rest of the world.
They really are insane. The VAT and duty are payable at the point of entry by the person who is importing it.

Don't think they've thought this through.
 
VAT

In the event of “no deal” all goods entering the UK as parcels sent by overseas businesses will be liable for VAT (unless they are already relieved from VAT under domestic rules, for example zero-rated children’s clothing).

· For parcels valued up to and including £135, a technology-based solution will allow VAT to be collected from the overseas business selling the goods into the UK. Overseas businesses will charge VAT at the point of purchase and will be expected to register with an HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) digital service and account for VAT due.


I've just noticed the above. They expect the overseas business to work on behalf of the HMRC, they've got to be jesting. Hope they've already got an agreement with every single business in the whole of the rest of the world.
They really are insane. The VAT and duty are payable at the point of entry by the person who is importing it.

Don't think they've thought this through.

"Admin fees" are going to become a bonanza.
 
VAT

In the event of “no deal” all goods entering the UK as parcels sent by overseas businesses will be liable for VAT (unless they are already relieved from VAT under domestic rules, for example zero-rated children’s clothing).

· For parcels valued up to and including £135, a technology-based solution will allow VAT to be collected from the overseas business selling the goods into the UK. Overseas businesses will charge VAT at the point of purchase and will be expected to register with an HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) digital service and account for VAT due.


I've just noticed the above. They expect the overseas business to work on behalf of the HMRC, they've got to be jesting. Hope they've already got an agreement with every single business in the whole of the rest of the world.
They really are insane. The VAT and duty are payable at the point of entry by the person who is importing it.

Don't think they've thought this through.
Trying to figure this out, but my brain is pretty frazzled from the 7am shift this morning.

So we're already paying VAT on these imported products, it's not a new thing, it's just about how it is collected by HMRC? The missus buys all of the cat food and supplies from a German company and I'm just wondering if we're going to take a hit on that.

Oh and I'm 99.9% sure this 'technology-based solution' to collect VAT on lower valued items does not exist yet and no company has even been approached about the feasibility of it, same as with the border technology rubbish about the Irish border.
 
The missus buys all of the cat food and supplies from a German company and I'm just wondering if we're going to take a hit on that.

I’m not sure on the VAT part but you’ll take a hit on it in the event of no deal because we’ll become liable for the import duty that we currently don’t pay.
 
I’m not sure on the VAT part but you’ll take a hit on it in the event of no deal because we’ll become liable for the import duty that we currently don’t pay.
Yeah I forgot to add about the tariff, was just trying to gauge the extent of the hit. So much stuff we import, often without even realising it. When you buy Boss stuff online it is shipped from Germany, for example.
 
Trying to figure this out, but my brain is pretty frazzled from the 7am shift this morning.

So we're already paying VAT on these imported products, it's not a new thing, it's just about how it is collected by HMRC? The missus buys all of the cat food and supplies from a German company and I'm just wondering if we're going to take a hit on that.

Oh and I'm 99.9% sure this 'technology-based solution' to collect VAT on lower valued items does not exist yet and no company has even been approached about the feasibility of it, same as with the border technology rubbish about the Irish border.

Yes the actual payment of VAT is not a new thing, the problem is how it's collected.
At the moment you buy the cat food and it gets delivered to your door, the VAT you paid is taken care of in the VAT declarations of the German company in its intra-EU section.

Now the government is expecting your German supplier to register with HMRC, yeah right, collect the VAT you've paid and send it to HMRC, of course they will, that's even if the technology existed in the first place. And as Snowjoe says will there be duty payable on the catfood? what about phytosanitary regulations. It's a nightmare. What will happen is the German company won't supply you because it's too much hassle or they ship it to the airport and a forwarder will contact you to pay the duty and VAT and arrange collection or delivery.
 
Yes the actual payment of VAT is not a new thing, the problem is how it's collected.
At the moment you buy the cat food and it gets delivered to your door, the VAT you paid is taken care of in the VAT declarations of the German company in its intra-EU section.

Now the government is expecting your German supplier to register with HMRC, yeah right, collect the VAT you've paid and send it to HMRC, of course they will, that's even if the technology existed in the first place. And as Snowjoe says will there be duty payable on the catfood? what about phytosanitary regulations. It's a nightmare. What will happen is the German company won't supply you because it's too much hassle or they ship it to the airport and a forwarder will contact you to pay the duty and VAT and arrange collection or delivery.
Yep, so only the big companies with a decent-sized UK customer base will, but the others will use third party distribution, adding another layer of cost, or just not bother if that extra cost is going to make their products too uncompetitive.
Taking back control of consumer choice and value...
 
Yep, so only the big companies with a decent-sized UK customer base will, but the others will use third party distribution, adding another layer of cost, or just not bother if that extra cost is going to make their products too uncompetitive.
Taking back control of consumer choice and value...

It's going to really hit personal purchases and small companies purchases from the EU. Large companies who buy from all over the world will have some structure in place but not enough if they buy a lot from the EU. Everything will just get much more expensive.
 
For immediate release

Chancellor confirms forecast of “No Deal” Brexit economic hit

In response to a letter from Rt Hon Nicky Morgan MP, Chair of the Treasury Committee, requesting the Treasury provide the Committee with its detailed impact assessment of a no deal Brexit, the Chancellor has responded by confirming that a no deal / WTO Brexit will result in a 5% – 10% hit to UK GDP with the largest negative impacts being felt in the North East and Northern Ireland.

Additionally, the Government’s “No Deal” Brexit notices have highlighted the difficulties that will be faced under a no deal scenario, including:

Financial Services

· EEA-based customers of UK firms currently passporting into the EEA, including UK citizens living in the EEA, may lose the ability to access existing lending and deposit services, insurance contracts (such as a life insurance contracts and annuities or pensions) due to UK firms losing their rights to passport into the EEA, affecting the ability of their EEA customers to continue accessing their services.

Customs

Before importing goods from the EU, a business will need to:

· Register for an UK Economic Operator Registration and Identification (EORI) number. Businesses do not need to do anything now. There will be further information available later in the year. For those businesses that sign up for the EU Email updates, they will be contacted when this service becomes available.

· Ensure their contracts and International Terms and Conditions of Service (INCOTERMS) reflect that they are now an importer.

· Consider how they will submit import declarations, including whether to engage a customs broker, freight forwarder or logistics provider (businesses that want to do this themselves will need to acquire the appropriate software and secure the necessary authorisations from HMRC). Engaging a customs broker or acquiring the appropriate software and authorisations form HMRC will come at a cost.

· decide the correct classification and value of their goods and enter this on the customs declaration.

When importing goods from the EU, a business will need to:

· Have a valid EORI number.

· Make sure that their carrier has submitted an Entry Summary Declaration at the appropriate time.

· Submit an import declaration to HMRC using their software, or get their customs broker, freight forwarder or logistics provider to do this for them.

· Pay Value Added Tax (VAT) and import duties including excise duty on excise goods unless the goods are entered into duty suspension (for example a customs or excise warehouse – a financial security will be required to cover the duty liability of the goods whilst they are being moved to the warehouse).

· Once excise goods leave a customs suspensive arrangement, they may be immediately entered into an excise duty suspension regime. A business will need to declare the goods on EMCS for onward movement via a Registered Consignor.

Tariffs

In the event of “no deal”, goods traded between the UK and the EU after 23h on 29 March 2019 will be subject to the same requirements as third country goods, including the payment of duty. Under World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules, the principle of most-favoured-nation (MFN) treatment means that, unless a preferential agreement is in place, the same rate of duty, on the same good, must be charged to all WTO members equally.

· In a ‘no deal’ scenario, trade with the EU will be on non-preferential, WTO terms. This means that MFN tariffs and non-preferential rules of origin would apply to consignments between the UK and EU.

· The EU will apply its MFN rates to goods imported into the EU from the UK.

· The UK will apply its MFN rates to goods imported into the UK from the EU. The government will determine and publish these new UK duty rates before we leave the EU.

VAT

In the event of “no deal” all goods entering the UK as parcels sent by overseas businesses will be liable for VAT (unless they are already relieved from VAT under domestic rules, for example zero-rated children’s clothing).

· For parcels valued up to and including £135, a technology-based solution will allow VAT to be collected from the overseas business selling the goods into the UK. Overseas businesses will charge VAT at the point of purchase and will be expected to register with an HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) digital service and account for VAT due.

On the impact of “No Deal” on the UK economy, Mrs Morgan said:

“The Chancellor has confirmed that the Government forecasts a disastrous hit to our economy and living standards in the event of a ‘no deal’ Brexit. The Committee will expect an updated analysis to be published in good time to inform Parliament’s key decisions on the final deal.

“The Chancellor has not committed to producing an analysis of the short-term economic fallout of a ‘no deal’ Brexit. The Committee will continue to press the Treasury for a robust and high-quality short- and long-term analyses of the economic consequences of Brexit so that Parliament can take properly informed decisions in the coming months.

“The Committee also continues to engage with the Bank of England and the OBR on their analyses of the short-term impact of Brexit.”

On the “No Deal” Brexit notices, Mrs Morgan said:

“The ‘No Deal’ Brexit notices have highlighted the myriad of additional tariffs, taxes, and red tape that businesses and households would need to comply with in order to go about their day-to-day lives.

“The British citizens living in the EU who may lose access to their pensions and other basic financial services such as their current accounts will be extremely concerned.

“It is clear that the Government’s mantra that “no deal is better than a bad deal” is dead in the water, and that no deal is in fact a very, very bad deal.”

--Ends--

Notes to Editors

· The Government’s “No Deal” Brexit Notices have been published here:

· The Chancellor’s letter to Nicky Morgan on the economic impact of “No Deal” has been published here:

yes but:

brexit-bus-e1511953625149.jpg
 
It's going to really hit personal purchases and small companies purchases from the EU. Large companies who buy from all over the world will have some structure in place but not enough if they buy a lot from the EU. Everything will just get much more expensive.
At least we'll get duty free booze in EU countries when we leave, right? I may not have a job, but I'll get cheap booze.
 
A United Ireland gets closer every day.
Im not sure a vote is on the cards anytime soon given the conservatives need the unionists to prop up the government but recent polling suggests its not impossible
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...-northern-border-uk-yougov-poll-a8389086.html
I do wonder when wee jimmy krankie is going to start banging on about scottish independence again (intruth brexit probably presents their best opportunity of a second ballot)
 
At some point, even he Unionists are going to realise Westminster doesn't give a feck about them.
 
Im not sure a vote is on the cards anytime soon given the conservatives need the unionists to prop up the government but recent polling suggests its not impossible
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...-northern-border-uk-yougov-poll-a8389086.html
I do wonder when wee jimmy krankie is going to start banging on about scottish independence again (intruth brexit probably presents their best opportunity of a second ballot)

The shelf life of that axis of evil is dwindling fast.
 
It's going to really hit personal purchases and small companies purchases from the EU. Large companies who buy from all over the world will have some structure in place but not enough if they buy a lot from the EU. Everything will just get much more expensive.

This will be exacerbated given the fact that these bigger companies will have even less competition and become a monopoly with typical price fixing due to the fact that the smaller companies will fold and the consumer will have little to no alternative.
 
Yes that's it, that's the reason they voted to leave, there had to be one benefit somewhere.
We've finally found a positive! Shame I finally quit smoking three months ago next Thursday:(
 
My guts tells me that even proud England would backtrack on Brexit in a faux-Brexit (accepting 4 freedoms) or asking to come back at the last moment. This does not make absolutely no sense economically speaking
 
So can someone explain to me why us falling back to WTO is so bad?

Can't we just set really nothing tariffs? Isn't that good?
 
:lol: Sorry! I am so ignorant on the subject - People keep telling me going onto WTO is fine.

In my ignorance, bad english and resuming, WTO means:

- If you keep tariffs = More expensive
- If you lower tariffs to 0 to EU, means you have to lower tariffs to 0 to the rest of the world (can't cherry pick countries as I understand) = meaning you can't compete, and lower quality products from less developed countries
- WTO means hard borders yes or yes even with tariffs at 0 because you have to comply on the regulations. That means huge lines on the borders (road and ports) meaning no just in time production

And many other things that people that understand more than me explained on these 700 pages
 
What people keep telling you that? And what is their expertise in international trade?
I don't know, the same as you?

I just wanted some guidance so I can have a sensible conversation with the annoying people at work who keep telling me it will all be okay when it does not seem like the case.
 
I don't know, the same as you?

I just wanted some guidance so I can have a sensible conversation with the annoying people at work who keep telling me it will all be okay when it does not seem like the case.

I would probably start with DExEu's own impact assessments that state a WTO exit mean 8% lower GDP, (that's £158b) and 2,800,000 people put into unemployment. Or do you work somewhere with better financial impact forecasting than the Treasury?