To be fair given the treasury's historic success at financial forecasting (or lack thereof) provided he doesn't work for rbs then most probably.
Brexited | the worst threads live the longest
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@C3Pique , I think he is genuinely asking for information, no need to get cocky. Or then you will cry when you can't convince a brexiteer
Okay, thanks.
I just wanted some information, as I am completely ignorant on the subject - if it makes any difference I voted remain.
It has been covered dozens of times, 4bars covered some of it.
UK has to present it's tariff schedules to the other WTO members. At present they belong to the WTO because they are members of the EU, next year they will not be and have to join in their own right and get approved by the other members.
Being on WTO means hard borders everywhere including in Ireland. Customs checks, massive delays at ports, airports
Now if the hard Brexiters like Redwood, Mogg Johnson Fox etc get their way and reduce tariffs to say zero plus the delays in customs will completely destroy the UK manufacturing industry and they don't care.
Reducing tariffs to zero means they have to reduce the tariffs to zero for every country thus the UK will be swamped with all type of crap goods , they'll have no control.
One small example that I was actively involved in was about 15 years ago and didn't involve the UK. The USA decided to reduce tariffs to zero on a certain product that originated from China (but was also produced in the USA) to help the Chinese economy prosper. Because the Chinese product was much cheaper the Americans bought the Chinese product and the whole USA industry of that product disappeared within a few years. Only one company survived and they were our customer.
That's interesting! Thank you for this.
The same is true with regulations, the only exemptions are when a custom or trade area is created which is why the vast majority of countries in the world are part of one.
This is good if you're Jacob Rees Mogg and you have an investment fund that has millions invested up in emerging economies. Those companies would be worth a fortune once tariff free, and unvetted access without any requirements to uphold standards to the UK market is allowed. You would make an absolute killing literally overnight.
This is bad if you're not Jacob Rees Mogg.
I hope this helps.
I'm just getting through some of the technical papers. We really are in the shit aren't we?
I find it amazing that we'd still be subject to EU laws and regulations under no deal. Just end this farce ffs.
I find it amazing that we'd still be subject to EU laws and regulations under no deal. Just end this farce ffs.
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nailed itSee now i can't help procrastinating...I've got
12 layers of red tape,
11 border crossings,
10-tion in Ireland
Nien trade deals,
8.5 net contribution,
7 years of Boris,
6 banks be leaving,
5 million freezing,
Four-ty miles of traffic,
3-dom of movement,
2 Bent bannans
And a boat full of OAPs
Here all week folks
Or in other words, "Not only were we stupid enough to vote for this Brexit thing, but we are also not clever enough to implement it, so we are going to abdicate from our responsibility to find a solution for the mess we created and then hopefully get away with blaming others when it inevitably goes to shit."
So fecked it's unbelievable. It would be very funny if the upcoming hit wasn't going to be so real.
We're sticking it to the German car manufacturers and French wine growers!
Listened to this. Jonathan? Jonathan?
Leavers just bare faced ignorance of hard facts is infuriating. It's just about winning now, no matter the cost as no one can put forward any benefit to this path.
I especially liked the line
"The fact that you do not know what you're talking about doesn't do you any favours".
Yes there is a small section of Brexiters like Mogg Fox Redwood who are hoping for an economic collapse of the UK.
But the remaining 17.4 million are so ignorant beyond belief and nothing anyone can say will ever convince them.
I'm not even convinced that them losing their jobs, a 25% increase in their shopping bill or even food shortages would made them change their minds.
I think that the fundamental issue is that people don't understand what independent means in politics or trade, they seem to think that it's synonym with doing whatever you want whenever you want and that no one is linked. They also fail to understand the concept of area, for example when the EU and Japan have a trade agreement, they create a trade area, if one of them negotiate a trade deal with a third country they will have to notify the other and have a EU-Japan formal agreement first because the new third country will affect the EU-Japan trade area.
Yes, something that Jonathan Isaby said, " we can deal with other independent countries", there are no other independent countries, except maybe North Korea? they're all part of some agreements with someone, only the UK will have no agreements with anyone.
they will probably blame the French / Germans / EU bureaucrats and it will only serve to entrench their opinion
They don't believe its true. If they did believe it was true, Remain would be polling at >90%.
Sure they don't believe it's true now . But that's my point, if what is predicted to happen , does actually happen, I'm not even sure that that many would even then change their minds. I know it sounds insane but what's sane about voting leave in the first place.
I think we lack the capacity to imagine anything really bad happening to the UK - as a nation (England even more so than the other parts) we have been largely spared traumas compared to our neighbours and have this bullet proof complacency.
Definitely. No matter how bad it gets, people like my mother will still believe that it's worth it and the pound and economy will recover in time.
WTO boss is warning that other countries will drag their heels on agreeing UK terms to screw us over and steal market share.
https://www.ft.com/content/4f0ea43e-a77e-11e8-926a-7342fe5e173f
https://www.ft.com/content/4f0ea43e-a77e-11e8-926a-7342fe5e173f
Didnt it take Russia about 20 years to fully agree its WTO terms?
Do you know about how financial passporting work is it linked to an original market?
Does she indicate what the goal is at the end of the tunnel having probably suffered all the hardship?
Twenty years of struggle will be worth it in the end. Just knuckle down and get on with it
To an original market? Sorry, I don't follow. Even Switzerland doesn't have passporting, no way the UK is.
Hook, line and sinker guff about controlling our own borders, setting our own laws etc...The veil does slip occasionally and she'll bring up immigration. Sorry I've moaned about this several times on here, but she rants about too many immigrants despite loving my wife who is a non-white immigrant. Annoys me even thinking about it.
Sorry, I didn't use the correct term and found what I was looking for in a brief about third country equivalence in EU banking legislation.
Exactly the same as everyone I know who voted Leave including family members.
I did see some UK immigration figures the other day, immigration from EU countries continues to drop but replaced by immigration from non-EU countries so no overall reduction.
Ah, right. I don't think the EU is accepting equivalence with financial services. Certainly the asset managers and banks have been beefing up their continental operations.
May seems happy to screw the golden goose that is the City.
Don't anyone knows what the impact will be tbh.
Yep she is 73 and in East Yorkshire, so core Brexit demographic. I do believe it was more than anti-immigrant bigotry with her. It defo played a part, but there is also that nostalgia for empire and British 'greatness' too I think.
I'm not familiar with the industry so i didn't knew that it actually existed but the principle does exist, here you have a pdf from the European Parliament.
Saw that earlier,
First comment, I do love the Red x brigade, it's an excellent movement, easily spot the tw*ts.
I made the mistake of descending into Brexit twitter earlier, that is one cesspit of shite. It's as bad as Trump / Altright twitter. Plenty of crossovers it seems.
Didn't take long to find the Boris for PM and JRM 'the king of the people' comments..
He will throw this shite out there, and then hide behind his "just a backbencher" nonsense when it suits him. Just odious.