Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

[Paul the Wolf]

He has never said that he wanted the PM job while he is a backbencher. I think a backbencher has only gone straight into number 10 once. I could be wrong. Too say that JRMs motives are purely selfish regarding brexit, is ridiculous. He's a principled Catholic, and has come under fire for his religious views. He's also back May and her government.

What do his religious views have to do with it. If he was a mere backbencher why does he have so much influence and why is May so afraid of him.You haven't noticed his business interests?

Spoiler

What the wasted 2 years or the No deal - No deal is at about 99.9% at this moment

Let's remember that "no deal" hurts both parties. The EU gets no money, and the trade arrangement will hurt them as much or more than us. We can trade with the EU under WTO rules, but both sides won't want this. The EU's biggest advantage is that Westminster is mostly for remain, and that's where the EU is wanting brexit to defeated. They want parliament to undermine brexit, and do their work for them.

No deal hurts both parties but hurts the UK approximately 7 or 8 times harder. There are 27 countries who will continue to trade with each other as before. The UK can trade with no-one as they did before. All agreements they have are as EU members.

Do you believe the EU wants the UK to stay?

David Davies briefed government about a no deal brexit just before he resigned. There are pans in place on our side.

Am sure everyone will be keen to find out what these are but you've only got 8 months left.

Do you think they'll really move?
Do you underestimate the size of the british economy?

Of course they will, if they cannot operate correctly they will move, not totally in one go but just phase it out over several years. Businesses have to operate without the restrictions UK will be imposing.
I think you're underestimating the size of the EU economy which is massive compared to the UK and all the deals the EU have with other countries, of which the UK will have none for many years and will undoubtedly be inferior.

No, that's just your own fears telling you this, because you live abroad. The opportunities are exciting.

There's no fear just an analytical view. I'd be interested to know what exciting opportunities there will be that didn't already exist.

 

[vidic blood & sand]

How will we trade on WTO terms with no border? How will we restrict freedom of movement with no border?

 

[Paul the Wolf]

No. The EU has a choice to put up a hard border.

You do not understand. The UK and the EU have to have a hard border under WTO rules, there is no choice.

 

[Massive Spanner]

We import about £100 Billion more in goods than we sell to the EU. Therefore when we leave the EU, we become a bigger customer of the EU than America.

It's about 80bn not 100bn.

And when you consider it's 65m people losing 240bn Vs 440m losing 320bn then which seems more significant?

And then when you consider the fact that so many of the main exporting companies from the UK to the EU are international companies who will want to retain tariff free exports to the EU, what happens then?

And about the US, are you saying they'll tailor their imports to meet that of an economy that has only a fraction of their imports from the EU, over the EU?

 

[C3Pique]

No answer? Ok let's look from the other side. How will the EU check regulatory compliance from a divergent country with no border? After all, we don't want to comply with their rules. Yet somehow expect to export to them without checks.

 

[JPRouve]

It's about 80bn not 100bn.

And when you consider it's 65m people losing 240bn Vs 440m losing 320bn then which seems more significant?

And then when you consider the fact that so many of the main exporting companies from the UK to the EU are international companies who will want to retain tariff free exports to the EU, what happens then?

And about the US, are you saying they'll tailor their imports to meet that of an economy that has only a fraction of their imports from the EU, over the EU?

It's around 65bn and it won't really change because people will still purchase these goods for the most part.

 

[Massive Spanner]

It's around 65bn and it won't really change because people will still purchase these goods for the most part.

Obviously that money won't just disappear but it will become more expensive for both sides to purchase the goods now, and if it's hurting these companies they'll do what's best to stop that. Certain car companies already are and they haven't even left yet.

 

[vidic blood & sand]

You do not understand. The UK and the EU have to have a hard border under WTO rules, there is no choice.

No it depends on what agreements are in place regarding tariffs. Let's also not forget that Ireland have a say in this. Does the EU have Ireland's interests at heart?

 

[Big-Red]

Does the EU have Ireland's interests at heart?

Yes.

 

[vidic blood & sand]

It's about 80bn not 100bn.

And when you consider it's 65m people losing 240bn Vs 440m losing 320bn then which seems more significant?

And then when you consider the fact that so many of the main exporting companies from the UK to the EU are international companies who will want to retain tariff free exports to the EU, what happens then?

And about the US, are you saying they'll tailor their imports to meet that of an economy that has only a fraction of their imports from the EU, over the EU?

Obviously the idea is for the UK to trade with other nations, and the EU to find alternative customers.

 

[vidic blood & sand]

Yes.

We shall see.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

No it depends on what agreements are in place regarding tariffs. Let's also not forget that Ireland have a say in this. Does the EU have Ireland's interests at heart?

We're talking no deal scenario with no customs union and no single market thus WTO rules which means a hard border.

Tariffs are not going to be the UK's biggest problem, the consumers pay the tariffs. It's the disruption that will be the UK's problem.

 

[Ekkie Thump]

It's around 65bn and it won't really change because people will still purchase these goods for the most part.

According to this HoC briefing (dated July 4th 2018) the UK's deficit in goods is around £95bn (actually 92.1 from the tables).

 

[Cheesy]

You're not thinking this through.

You're implying that the EU was expecting to kneecap the UK for leaving. How do you feel about an organisation that is basically trying to say that there is no way for the UK to leave the EU?

They EU have four fundamental freedoms, to which we agreed. Either we follow those freedoms, or don't and face economic and political consequences because surprisingly those freedoms were beneficial for us. Why should the EU bend over to help a nation who seeks to disadvantage them?

 

[vidic blood & sand]

We're talking no deal scenario with no customs union and no single market thus WTO rules which means a hard border.

Tariffs are not going to be the UK's biggest problem, the consumers pay the tariffs. It's the disruption that will be the UK's problem.

No. WTO rules do not allow special arrangements. Therefore it would be the EU's decision to force the UK into having to set tariffs, and thus affecting the nature of the border in Ireland. It would be the UK's desire to trade favourably with the EU, why wouldn't it be the EU's desire to do the same?

 

[JPRouve]

According to this HoC briefing (dated July 4th 2018) the UK's deficit in goods is around £95bn (actually 92.1 from the tables).

And I only use a complete year, so 2017 and in that case it's 67.

 

[Ekkie Thump]

And I only use a complete year, so 2017 and in that case it's 67.

Good for you and bad for the briefing paper, which is also claiming to use 2017 figures.

 

[Ekkie Thump]

We import about £100 Billion more in goods than we sell to the EU. Therefore when we leave the EU, we become a bigger customer of the EU than America.

We export about £2,500 worth of goods per person to the EU. This equates to them importing around £370 per person.

We import about £3900 worth of goods per person from the EU. This equates to them exporting around £575 per person.

When taken as a whole it isn't difficult to see which economy has the most exposure.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

No. WTO rules do not allow special arrangements. Therefore it would be the EU's decision to force the UK into having to set tariffs, and thus affecting the nature of the border in Ireland. It would be the UK's desire to trade favourably with the EU, why wouldn't it be the EU's desire to do the same?

Outside a customs union the Uk has to follow WTO rules, ie have a hard border and set the appropriate tariff. The UK are forcing this by leaving the customs union not the other way round.

 

[JPRouve]

Good for you and bad for the briefing paper, which is also claiming to use 2017 figures.

Unless I'm crazy, here you have 274bn exports against 341bn imports.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

According to this HoC briefing (dated July 4th 2018) the UK's deficit in goods is around £95bn (actually 92.1 from the tables).

Unless I'm crazy, here you have 274bn exports against 341bn imports.

67bn is for goods and services, 95bn is just for goods

 

[Ekkie Thump]

And I only use a complete year, so 2017 and in that case it's 67.

I see the error - you're talking about goods and services. I thought Vidic, Spanner and therefore you were talking about goods alone.

 

[JPRouve]

I see the error - you're talking about goods and services. I thought Vidic, Spanner and therefore you were talking about goods alone.

I wasn't talking about goods alone but the entire balance, maybe I was the only one though.

 

[Adisa]

Not brexit related but since we are mostly British in this thread,I thought I'll post here.
Look at us ffs!

 

[caid]

Duh, because a hard brexit massively affects them and their economy.

We don't see it as our mess. It's a joint mess with the EU because of all the problems the membership to the EU has caused us.

Because we cant impose a decision on you. We cant prevent a hard border from being necessary to conform to any kind of trade rules anywhere. The EU is one of the very few frameworks to avoid a hard border and you dont want to conform to their rules.
Ireland is staying in the EU, the only current means of NI having no border with the rest of the island is by having the same trading standards in food, medicine and the thousand other things that pass between the 2 legal jurisdictions. Basically they stay in the Customs Union and the Single Market. The alternative is a border, there is no 3rd option.
None of these are options for ireland, we have no say whatsoever in what decision the british government makes. Neither do the people of Northern Ireland for that matter, their parliament has been dissolved and any kind of leverage to get that back up and running has been thrown away by going into coalition with the DUP.
You could say feck it and put up a border, but then your breaking the agreements your government of 20 years ago made in the Good Friday Agreement. A decision you made, it wasn't forced upon you by the EU, it should be added.
You'd also be breaking the agreements you made ... 6 months ago? But you said they were bolox about a week after signing up to them so I guess its our own fault for taking you vaguely seriously in negotiations.
The EU should be the easiest trade negotiation you have, its in our interest to give you a good deal. You bloody wrote half the rules we use!

 

[caid]

No. WTO rules do not allow special arrangements. Therefore it would be the EU's decision to force the UK into having to set tariffs, and thus affecting the nature of the border in Ireland. It would be the UK's desire to trade favourably with the EU, why wouldn't it be the EU's desire to do the same?

You've said it yourself. WTO rules don't allow special arrangements. If you let Irish (and latterly EU) goods and people pass freely through NI, then you have to let every other country you trade with under WTO rules do the same. Are you planning on having free movement and 0 tariffs, regulations or standards for every country you trade with?

 

[Cheesy]

You've said it yourself. WTO rules don't allow special arrangements. If you let Irish (and latterly EU) goods and people pass freely through NI, then you have to let every other country you trade with under WTO rules do the same. Are you planning on having free movement and 0 tariffs, regulations or standards for every country you trade with?

Imagine that.

"We have scrapped freedom of movement with the EU...and now have freedom of movement with...everywhere. Thank you."

 

[Massive Spanner]

Obviously the idea is for the UK to trade with other nations, and the EU to find alternative customers.

Right, and what nations will those be? The EU already has trade agreements with Canada, Japan, China, the US (admittedly strained due to its president) that took years to negotiate and are about as good as you can get when it comes to international trade. So who are the UK going to get that the EU doesn't already cover? What big nations are going to preference the UK over the EU?

Not to mention, the EU is right beside the UK. You are literally losing the largest trading bloc in the world that's right on your doorstop in other to try and negotiate trade deals with other countries that already have trade deals with the EU.

I asked you three questions there and you didn't provide an answer for any of them, you didn't explain how those issues could be resolved. You're really not thinking this through, you seem to just go "yeah, well, we can just trade with these guys", or "yeah, but if we're out of the EU we can do this and this" and "yeah, well, we could just not have a hard border?" and yet offer absolutely no fathomable way to do any of that.

Actually, makes sense from a leaver, seeing as that's been their rhetoric this whole time.

 

[RedSky]

Not brexit related but since we are mostly British in this thread,I thought I'll post here.
Look at us ffs!

Good god.

 

[Massive Spanner]

We shall see.

I believe they do to an extent because when the UK leaves Ireland will be seen as a potential gateway to the EU, and our trade and financial services are huge compared to our size as a country given the amount of multinationals (especially US ones here), but obviously at the same time it's impossible to deny that in the EU's eyes we are a bargaining chip with the UK, we are the one tangent that there's no solution to without them staying in the single market, because there's simply no other way to avoid a hard border if we don't which neither the EU nor the UK want. The UK seem happy to leave the single market, end freedom of movement, but the one thing they clearly do not want is a hard border. So regardless of whether they have our best interests at heart, they will still do everything in their power to ensure Ireland is looked after.

 

[Oscie]

Not brexit related but since we are mostly British in this thread,I thought I'll post here.
Look at us ffs!

But we're so far down the rabbit hole that if we accused her of being stupid, thick or even ill-informed we're being "elitist".

So much of the rise of the hard right in the US and here is attributable to the fact saying "No, that's absolutely stupid. You're fecking mental" became less acceptable than being absolutely stupid and fecking mental.

 

[MoskvaRed]

Not brexit related but since we are mostly British in this thread,I thought I'll post here.
Look at us ffs!

She might be a moron but she inadvertently outlined the real problem behind issues like Robinson, Brexit, Trump, Putin’s cyberwar etc in an area of decentralised sources of information - “I believe what I read unless its proven to be not true.”

 

[Oscie]

The demonisation of the mainstream helps that too. If all politicians are the same and all the 'MSM' lie, what reason isn't there to believe racist feckwits who mainstream politicians and the MSM oppose?

"All politicians are the same"
"Everything the press say is a lie"

There's little that's aided the rise of Brexit and Trump more than that. Moderate political voices, experts, institutions - all mercilessly attacked and undermined in an era where people seek out news they want to hear rather than absorb news that's actually true. So Muslim countries allow men to rape children. Anything said against this politician I like is a conspiracy. Racism doesn't exist because this bloke on Facebook told me.

It's all the same. It's all exactly the same.

 

[unchanged_lineup]

 

[balaks]

That's your well thought out and convincing answer is it?

 

[2mufc0]

Not brexit related but since we are mostly British in this thread,I thought I'll post here.
Look at us ffs!

And this is why we got Brexit and Trump.

 

[Xeno]

And this is why we got Brexit and Trump.

It makes me question the fundamentals of democracy that her vote has equal value.

 

[Wumminator]

Not brexit related but since we are mostly British in this thread,I thought I'll post here.
Look at us ffs!

It is genuinely like she is struggling to form a coherent thought. It seems like she has never questioned any of this stuff before now and you can see that she is starting to doubt it as she speaks.
So many idiots

 

[iammemphis]

It is genuinely like she is struggling to form a coherent thought. It seems like she has never questioned any of this stuff before now and you can see that she is starting to doubt it as she speaks.
So many idiots

She’s one of them morons who see’s a “This cornershop is refusing to allow a St George’s flag being brought into the shop because it insults the Muslim community there. We need to get Muslims out of this country. SHARE IF YOU AGREE”

 

[Bury Red]

Scarfolk has always been eerily like Brexit Britain anyway, good to see the government finally acknowledging it.

In fact worryingly it looks like it might be where the government are getting all their ideas

created 18 months before the Windrush scandal broke