Brexited | the worst threads live the longest
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That would be an awesome spectacle.
Will she actually? I'd say she's fairly safe, there are as many Tory Remainers as leavers, and most are pragmatists anyway.
No, the big danger is that a tiny fraction of Tory MPs can collapse the government if they so wished. Her Majority in the Commons with the DUP is what, 5? So if 10 Tory leavers go for the nuclear option, they can collapse the government.
It may go something like this.
- Mays Soft Brexit plan becomes clearer.
- 1922 Committee receives nearly the required 48 letters.
- May is about to face a vote of no confidence. The "people in the back rooms" do the maths, and know she will win.
- The 50 or so hard Brexiters make promises in private to begin voting against the government if they are not listened too.
- May is told by "the people in the back rooms" that her time has come and she has to resign.
- A deal is done and someone like Sajid Javid is made PM?
- Sajid Javid promises a multi question referendum on the final EU deal in 2019:
Question 1 - If the UK rejects the deal, should we leave the EU with WTO rules OR should the UK stay in the EU.
Question 2 - Do you accept the negotiated EU deal?
(some fudge like that)
- We leave with the soft brexit
It reads like when you're struggling to hit the word count of an essay so keep throwing in "and therefore...".
Back home from the UK. I see they have already started work on converting the M20 into a car or lorry Park.
Lot of catching up to do but Trump sounds disappointed that he might not be able to dump his chlorinated chicken in the UK after all.
Lot of catching up to do but Trump sounds disappointed that he might not be able to dump his chlorinated chicken in the UK after all.
I think that they(current politicians) are the opposite of what England has historically been. One of the reason why the UK thrived is because of a strong respect of the rules of Law, a clear and intelligible implementation, investors had total confidence in UK's jurisdictions.
What's ironic is we can't even get a lorry park approved in Kent
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-sussex-42002776
So it's sleeping on the M20 for our Lorry drivers.
Yeah, possible, and likely the best-case scenario too. I wouldn't call the referendum result myself though, could go either way. Might depend on the cash the EU asks for, I suppose.
The white paper is one big story. My optimism from last week has faded pretty quickly. Think No Deal is now a strong probability.
If we ignore the internal politics of the Conservative Party and the feckless opposition leader for a second, what would be the process for extending the March 2019 deadline? Agreement of all individual EU countries? Given the talent the Troika has displayed in Greece for kicking the can down the road, my preferred solution would be to agree an extension to resolve remaining issues (with the unsaid understanding that they probably won’t be) for say 3-5 years and then hold referendum 2 (justification - changed circumstances) once changing demographics have done their work. It’s slightly cynical but given the three senior members of the current administration were remainers who are currently trying to steer a course between disaster and damage limitation, an element of absurdity is unavoidable.
United Kingdom has legislated to leave the EU on March 29th 2019. It's an act of parliament.
Major cringe and embarrassment if that act had to be revoked. I also think that it would be very politically difficult to reverse in the HoC.
But any act of parliament can be superseded by a subsequent act. I agree it is politically awkward (to say the least) but if May stood up and said we are making good progress but just need some more time to iron out important details, would the (remainer majority) parliament say no way, let’s go for the cliff edge instead?
Like I state next to no chance of that happening. If May were to delay then the would be a leadership election immediately to try and remove her.
Real issue is Corbyn. He's a brexit supporter, primarily because he knows there's a good chance it'll make him PM. No way he'd support a revoking of the act. . . and even if it were to come from the tory side it would be electoral suicide.
I just cannot see it happening.
UK will leave EU next March.
It will be in name only for a certain period but leave they will.
You say that. But if it's a choice between not leaving (yet) and leaving with no deal... Yeah only the most hardcore leaver will think we should leave in that way
It's possible but I think the political consequences make it very unlikely. I used to think no deal would be done but I now think that some sort of Norway style deal will be patched up. The hardline brexiteers will go mad (what's new?) but that's the only way to get around the Northern Ireland problem and for brexit to occur.
Just read through the white paper, got to page 25 or so and then started skipping parts - as Johnson would say just a pile of turds.
Further away now than ever from getting a deal and that's two years after the referendum.
Unless there is complete climbdown there is going to be a no deal for certain
Barnier may say 80% is agreed but 75% was supposedly agreed 7 months ago and the UK keep going back on what they say they agreed.
Even Remainers are starting to think they can cherry-pick now.
Has it actually occurred to anyone in the UK that the EU may be glad to see the back of the UK and that the only things that really interest the EU are the citizens rights issues and that the Irish border is resolved. Probably not.
Further away now than ever from getting a deal and that's two years after the referendum.
Unless there is complete climbdown there is going to be a no deal for certain
Barnier may say 80% is agreed but 75% was supposedly agreed 7 months ago and the UK keep going back on what they say they agreed.
Even Remainers are starting to think they can cherry-pick now.
Has it actually occurred to anyone in the UK that the EU may be glad to see the back of the UK and that the only things that really interest the EU are the citizens rights issues and that the Irish border is resolved. Probably not.
I agree with you. We are heading for no deal territory.
Only thing I'm clinging to is that whilst 'no deal' would be catastrophic for us, it would also be damaging (albeit relatively less so) to the EU meaning at that point it would surely be in both party's interest to somehow extend or fudge the rules on the Article 50 deadline.
To what end? Based on what May said and what the white paper shows, they are either completely out of depth or purposely proposing silly things. Either way, EU members can't wait forever and they can't gamble on the hypothetical chance that british people get rid of the Tories and Corbin in one go.
I believe the only thing for certain that will happen in that White Paper is that the UK will leave on 29 March 2019.
There will be damaging things for the EU but there will also plenty of advantages for the EU with the UK leaving with no deal.
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I don't think parliament would let a no deal happen
How was your trip to UK?
Well, that is were you differ. You laugh at the none priviledged once, I laugh at the priviledge ones that thinks that are the big boys and then they whine when the none priviledge ones "steals their jobs" .
I have neither anything against protecting your interests, but going against the immigration the way is done, is completely wrong and it goes against the interests of the ones that whines. The immigration is used as a weapon to blame all of the problems of the economy when is the economy. The rich wants that kind of immigration and they don't have any interest in stopping it. But is the perfect target because they can't defend themselves.
If you want to tackle immigration what you do? pursue an uncontrolable source like desperate people, that you can deport but someone will come? or you should pursue the companies that hires them? companies that can't go anywhere (because they are not multinationals), you know where to find them and easy to control?
If you control the companies, they don't hire, immigrants wont come at that much numbers illegally. But no, the economy needs these people and they will never go against they own companies.
Then you say that immigration put stress in the economy, no doubt, like any big phenomena that affects the economy, puts stress in the economy, but there are pros and cons, and if you want some benefits, you need to invest and have some costs. But as you said, immigration is beneficial for any economy overall, then we can go at any particular case and some would be fecked and others been benefited big time.
The lazy or unprepared that they are caught in the bottom are fairly way better than the ones that they leave their homes because they are caught in wars or they are starving and they risk their lives, some of them 2/3 years, to cross half a continent in the worse conditions, dealing with mafias ans basically risking their life and the few money they have to try a better life. So yeah, locals can cry me a river of how unfair life is and how caught int the bottom they are. They have every right to ask for protection from the government, but they are requesting the wrong protection with immigration and basically they are requesting help to the ones that fecked them over and over and make them believe that immigration is the problem.
Last sentence is pedantic, patronizing and basically say a lot about you. And yes, I will be always angry the way things work in this world and I am more than consistent that mostly will never change. Now is up to you if you want (probably you find it great the way things work) to change it or not despite how you think things are, because if we don't fight for it, things would be even worse
I repeat, you don't need a ID to cross by GROUND to any EU country. NONE.
BUt if you want to pick a FLIGHT from UK to France you need an ID, If you have to pick a FLIGHT from Spain to France you need an ID, if you want to pick a FLIGHT from Madrid to Barcelona you need an ID (same country), if pick a FLIGHT from London to Edinburgh you need an ID
What you say is true, what I am saying true too. You need an ID for Flying from UK to France (probably as well for the Eurotunnel because is for security reasons) but is for security reasons, not because you cross to another country, because inside the same country you need an ID as well. By ground you can cross any european countries without a problem except probably some key infrastructures (maybe Sweden-Denmark through the long bridge? others? but I think inside spain you needed as well to pick the high speed train (don't remember though.
Security issue, not EU borders issue
What you are saying is valid for the Schengen area, not the whole EU.
I drove this time, 2000 km round trip. Ferry empty, M25 empty - both going and coming- where's everyone gone? - let's just say I'm so glad to be back home in France.
If it is like this, I apologize about it (though is not the point I was trying to make). But still is valid for the UK, yes, in the Schengen area (correction). ID are needed to go to France from UK, not because despite they are in Schengen, but because for security reasons when you take a flight
The UK aren't in Schengen.
I stand seriously corrected. I really thought you did not need passport for EU/ Schengen
So you need a passport between NI and Ireland?
I need a passport if I need to go to Romania, and Bulgaria?
Geniuine questions
Yes
Certain countries in the European Union do not belong to the Schengen Area, and EU nationals must show their passports – or other valid national ID – when entering or exiting these countries. At the time of publication, European nationals must show their IDs when entering or exiting the United Kingdom, Ireland, Cyprus, Croatia, Bulgaria or Romania. The U.K.'s upcoming exit from the EU may further affect this, however the regulations have not been put in place yet.
Then I repeat I stand 100% correct.
In an attempt to salvage my argument, with FoM, once inside the Schengen area, the national brits can enjoy it like any other
Certain countries in the European Union do not belong to the Schengen Area, and EU nationals must show their passports – or other valid national ID – when entering or exiting these countries. At the time of publication, European nationals must show their IDs when entering or exiting the United Kingdom, Ireland, Cyprus, Croatia, Bulgaria or Romania. The U.K.'s upcoming exit from the EU may further affect this, however the regulations have not been put in place yet.
Then I repeat I stand 100% correct.
In an attempt to salvage my argument, with FoM, once inside the Schengen area, the national brits can enjoy it like any other
Please don't leave...
We need a strong Europe.
Do what ever is necessary to stay...
We need a strong Europe.
Do what ever is necessary to stay...
Technically you don't need an id between France and Spain but it's highly advised because you can be checked by customs or border police, it's relatively rare but it's possible particularly near Le Perthus or Vintimiglia at the italian border. UK, Ireland, Romania, Croatia and Bulgaria aren't in Schengen, iirc British police can check people IDs in trains and they also do it in Calais, regarding Ireland they have an open border and I don't think that you need anything.
I agree is recommended, though not necessary at all. And if the french police ask me an ID and I don't have it, I am not breaking the law
I don't know why the Republic of Ireland didn't join Schengen actually, as enthusiastic EU members. Must be a good reason, obviously, but it seems strange they should choose to lump in with the politically isolated UK rather than everyone else in the EU.
No, we've had a common travel area between ireland and the uk for a long time now. For all intents and purposes there is no border these days. There's towns and homes and farms that the border passes through. Theres roads that pass back and forth from one side to the other. Trying to implement a hard border should be pretty hilarious if it comes to that.
I have never gone to uk other than with passport, mainly cos its the only id i have. I think its mandatory to carry id in nl, not sure, anyhow i dont carry one.
The CTA, together with no ID checks between Cairnryan and Belfast, allow wanted criminals an escape route, or alternatively a way for people inside Schengen to access the U.K. without passing a border.
Glad we're differentiating between flying and driving because that is important.
As has been said though, non-schengen countries require either an EU approved ID or passport to enter. These inclide include Bulgaria and Romania and Croatia. To go from Slovakia -> Croatia, you need to show ID.
https://europa.eu/youreurope/citizens/travel/entry-exit/eu-citizen/index_en.htm
I've heard there's near 300 points to cross the border