Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

[Adisa]

£5 says this 'agreement' doesn't last through until Monday. Be surprised if by the time we wake up tomorrow there aren't cabinet ministers claiming the agreement means something different to what another cabinet minister thinks it does.

May has said ministers are from this point not allowed to deviate from official lines. Can't see the white paper being much different from what has come out tonight.
The EU will rejected it of course but to me sounds like the PM knows she doesn't have much of a choice on what she gets.

 

[711]

EU will reject it. The big question now, and probably always has been, what comes next after that. If the EU really wanted to play hardball they could give the option of UK crashing out with no deal or staying in with current arrangement. If they wanted to be nice they could offer a chance of continued negotiation.

Well yes, and then we have the ludicrous situation where people think that after a deal is struck parliament should have the option to reject it anyway. What they think the EU will do after that god only knows.

They could try and remove her. She will not resign and it will be out to a confidence vote. Think she would win quite easily.
Why I think she told them to out ou or shut up today. The brexiteers are fecked.

They could well be fecked but they're not fecked yet, we've barely even begun negotiation, there's a long way to go, and a lot of twists and turns to come, don't you think?

 

[JPRouve]

I know that. How many is it?

I think that it's best if I give you the link, if you click on adopted EU acts, you will have the numbers.

 

[Adisa]

Well yes, and then we have the ludicrous situation where people think that after a deal is struck parliament should have the option to reject it anyway. What they think the EU will do after that god only knows.


They could well be fecked but they're not fecked yet, we've barely even begun negotiation, there's a long way to go, and a lot of twists and turns to come, don't you think?

I agree, still a long way to go. But imo, their best and last available card to ensure hard brexit was today. Now I think it's up to May and the EU if we get a deal or not.
The only thing they can do is resign en masse. What that does is force a no confidence vote. I'm not convinced they can defeat May on that.
The other way is if public sentiment goes so much against May that her position becomes untenable.

 

[711]

I agree, still a long way to go. But imo, their best and last available card to ensure hard brexit was today. Now I think it's up to May and the EU if we get a deal or not.
The only thing they can do is resign en masse. What that does is force a no confidence vote. I'm not convinced they can defeat May on that.
The other way is if public sentiment goes so much against May that her position becomes untenable.

The hard brexiters do look like they've suffered a defeat today I agree. For the rest the picture will depend for one thing on how big a Feck Off the EU give her, and that none of us yet know, not even the EU members themselves, until they've met to discuss it.

 

[C3Pique]

The best thing to come of this will be status quo but with Nigel Farage losing his job. We'd probably have more influence lobbying independently than having that Poundland Hitler in Brussels anyway.

 

[horsechoker]

The best thing to come of this will be status quo but with Nigel Farage losing his job. We'd probably have more influence lobbying independently than having that Poundland Hitler in Brussels anyway.

 

[endless_wheelies]

I agree, still a long way to go. But imo, their best and last available card to ensure hard brexit was today. Now I think it's up to May and the EU if we get a deal or not.
The only thing they can do is resign en masse. What that does is force a no confidence vote. I'm not convinced they can defeat May on that.
The other way is if public sentiment goes so much against May that her position becomes untenable.

I think they're keeping their powder dry. Nobody knows what exactly went on in the meeting and the summary of the agreement is very hazy. For example they've agreed to no official jurisdiction of the ECJ, "regulatory flexibility" on services and a "mobility framework" instead of freedom of movement; the first two are not going to be allowed by the EU and they can claim not to have known exactly what "mobility framework" was if it does turn out to be too similar to freedom of movement for the common Brexiter on the street.

Johnson & co. are staying in cabinet for now to maintain what influence they have until the last possible moment when they will scuttle off the proverbial ship and come back as the glorious rescue party.

 

[Steven Seagull]

I think that it's best if I give you the link, if you click on adopted EU acts, you will have the numbers.

Seems to be even less than the 30% I guessed earlier

 

[JPRouve]

Seems to be even less than the 30% I guessed earlier

If I'm not mistaken, you were in the correct ballpark. A few years ago the total amount was around 40k.

 

[Steven Seagull]

If I'm not mistaken, you were in the correct ballpark. A few years ago the total amount was around 40k.

Thank you.

Because they're not already in the EU?!

Again, which rules/regulations do we plan to no longer follow? And why won't we be following them? I've yet to see people articulate which ones they actually find problematic.

I’m not here to campaign for or against anything.

You and many others suggested we will just end up taking most of the rules anyway. Well Norway don’t take most of the EU laws as seen in JPR’s link. So we should probably stop peddling this falsehood. You’re laughing at your own question

 

[JPRouve]

Thank you.



I’m not here to campaign for or against anything.

You and many others suggested we will just end up taking most of the rules anyway. Well Norway don’t take most of the EU laws as seen in JPR’s link. So we should probably stop peddling this falsehood. You’re laughing at your own question

You see that's where you confuse me. These posters are I assume talking about relevant rules, for example the UK not being in the Eurozone or Schengen were logically not concerned by the vast majority of new legal acts relating to these agreements. Now EEA members, EFTA states included, are all concerned by most new laws and adopt them without problem, mainly because they are part of the creation process, I say most because in the case of EFTA not all goods are included in the agreement, in the case of France, Guyana and other territories can also be exempted.

 

[Steven Seagull]

You see that's where you confuse me. These posters are I assume talking about relevant rules, for example the UK not being in the Eurozone or Schengen were logically not concerned by the vast majority of new legal acts relating to these agreements. Now EEA members, EFTA states included, are all concerned by most new laws and adopt them without problem, mainly because they are part of the creation process, I say most because in the case of EFTA not all goods are included in the agreement, in the case of France, Guyana and other territories can also be exempted.

Interesting. So how many relevant rules do EFTA states adopt? Is there any criteria you use for defining which rules are relevant?

 

[Minimalist]

So we're going to end up with a shitter scenario than if we just stayed in the bloody thing - without really leaving. Wonderful.

I mean don't get me wrong, I didn't want a hard brexit as they call it but this just sums up how pointless the whole shebang was.

 

[Cheesy]

I’m not here to campaign for or against anything.

You and many others suggested we will just end up taking most of the rules anyway. Well Norway don’t take most of the EU laws as seen in JPR’s link. So we should probably stop peddling this falsehood. You’re laughing at your own question

But Norway aren't in the EU, and thus won't have adopted them. We'll have already adopted a ton of EU rules, and thus unless we're going to drop them it seems pointless. If someone has some specific ones they want to get rid of then, yeah, fair enough, but a lot of this rhetoric seems fairly vague and unfocused.

 

[JPRouve]

Interesting. So how many relevant rules do EFTA states adopt? Is there any criteria you use for defining which rules are relevant?

Honestly I don't know but you can find briefing notes like this one, you will see that the process is explained and even though it's not really the subject of the paper it's insinuated that not all EU laws are relevant to EEA EFTA.

 

[Minimalist]

Reading some of the opinion pieces about this and it seems there's a large amount of people are convinced the eventual deal will be even softer than the one currently proposed (and that May is fully aware of that).

Sucks to be a Brexiteer. Bet they'll be wanting a 2nd Ref now.

 

[sullydnl]

So we're going to end up with a shitter scenario than if we just stayed in the bloody thing - without really leaving. Wonderful.

I mean don't get me wrong, I didn't want a hard brexit as they call it but this just sums up how pointless the whole shebang was.

It's almost like Brexit is fundamentally bad for the UK. If only people had repeatedly and incessantly pointed that before the vote.

Still, pointless Brexit beats nightmare Brexit I guess. Like stabbing yourself in the stomach instead of cutting your own head off. A positive, sort of.

 

[balaks]

All this has been inevitable since the entire BREXIT debacle started. Lots of posturing on all sides but this was always going to be a BREXIT in name only - will be virtually identical to how things are now but with different names on stuff and the country as a whole will probably be worse off for nothing.

 

[horsechoker]

All this has been inevitable since the entire BREXIT debacle started. Lots of posturing on all sides but this was always going to be a BREXIT in name only - will be virtually identical to how things are now but with different names on stuff and the country as a whole will probably be worse off for nothing.

Aren't you forgetting BLUE PASSPORTS?

 

[sun_tzu]

All this has been inevitable since the entire BREXIT debacle started. Lots of posturing on all sides but this was always going to be a BREXIT in name only - will be virtually identical to how things are now but with different names on stuff and the country as a whole will probably be worse off for nothing.

That's presuming the EU goes for it... I'm not so sure they will

 

[Massive Spanner]

That's presuming the EU goes for it... I'm not so sure they will

the EU won't go for that draft, it's worded way too... "look at us getting back control bla bla", but the final agreement will be something similar in a lot of ways, I'd say.

A total mess, but better than the alternative.

 

[sun_tzu]

the EU won't go for that draft, it's worded way too... "look at us getting back control bla bla", but the final agreement will be something similar in a lot of ways, I'd say.

A total mess, but better than the alternative.

I think the argument in public might be about the wording... But in private I think the real debate will be if we want access to the single market which is pretty close to what we currently have then How much will we pay...

I suspect the eu stance will be you want what you have in all but name so you pay what you pay now... (No rebate and no EU investment into UK schemes though as we won't be in the eu)

The UK will probably say we are leaving the EU... And we are giving you access to our market so we don't want to pay anything.

I think this argument will prove very difficult to solve with a compromise hard to sell on either side

 

[Massive Spanner]

I think the argument in public might be about the wording... But in private I think the real debate will be if we want access to the single market which is pretty close to what we currently have then How much will we pay...

I suspect the eu stance will be you want what you have in all but name so you pay what you pay now... (No rebate and no EU investment into UK schemes though as we won't be in the eu)

The UK will probably say we are leaving the EU... And we are giving you access to our market so we don't want to pay anything.

I think this argument will prove very difficult to solve with a compromise hard to sell on either side

Then that would be hilariously dumb, seeing as anyone who has free market access right now who isn't in the EU has to pay for it. I doubt they'll do that, the debate will be over how much.

 

[Steven Seagull]

But Norway aren't in the EU, and thus won't have adopted them. We'll have already adopted a ton of EU rules, and thus unless we're going to drop them it seems pointless. If someone has some specific ones they want to get rid of then, yeah, fair enough, but a lot of this rhetoric seems fairly vague and unfocused.

Of course we have adopted thousands of them, we’ve been in it for 40 years. The point is moving forwards that won’t be the case. If laws don’t suit us like they don’t suit the Norwegians there will be more scope to change it or do something about it. If the EU is going in 100 years that will be quite a lot of laws.

Just because somebody believes something is shit now doesn’t mean they should just roll over and accept it forever. Whether you or I think it’s shit or not is neither here nor there. The figures show its possible to adopt less than half of EU laws and still have close ties to the EU. The figures back that up and people should acknowledge that instead of lazily stating its “pointless”

 

[Pexbo]

Of course we have adopted thousands of them, we’ve been in it for 40 years. The point is moving forwards that won’t be the case. If laws don’t suit us like they don’t suit the Norwegians there will be more scope to change it or do something about it. If the EU is going in 100 years that will be quite a lot of laws.

Just because somebody believes something is shit now doesn’t mean they should just roll over and accept it forever. Whether you or I think it’s shit or not is neither here nor there. The figures show its possible to adopt less than half of EU laws and still have close ties to the EU. The figures back that up and people should acknowledge that instead of lazily stating its “pointless”

If we’re still in the single market, we will have to abide by every single EU regulation to continue to trade freely with them.

We will not get a vote on those regulations.

 

[Steven Seagull]

If we’re still in the single market, we will have to abide by every single EU regulation to continue to trade freely with them.

We will not get a vote on those regulations.

Great. If we become an EEA member that should make the move more palatable to remainers as we’ll have access to the market. Leavers won’t be able to argue as we voted to leave the EU and we have left the EU

 

[Cheesy]

Great. If we become an EEA member that should make the move more palatable to remainers as we’ll have access to the market. Leavers won’t be able to argue as we voted to leave the EU and we have left the EU

But you're missing his point - you're saying we won't have to follow EU regulations, he's pointing out if we're in the single market we will.

 

[JPRouve]

Of course we have adopted thousands of them, we’ve been in it for 40 years. The point is moving forwards that won’t be the case. If laws don’t suit us like they don’t suit the Norwegians there will be more scope to change it or do something about it. If the EU is going in 100 years that will be quite a lot of laws.

Just because somebody believes something is shit now doesn’t mean they should just roll over and accept it forever. Whether you or I think it’s shit or not is neither here nor there. The figures show its possible to adopt less than half of EU laws and still have close ties to the EU. The figures back that up and people should acknowledge that instead of lazily stating its “pointless”

I forgot to mention something though, you need to keep in mind that the figures for Norway are kind of misleading in the context of the UK and the last government position. Norway are only partially members of the Single Market(EEA), the UK apparently wants to add a custom union agreement and some sort of freedom of movement that would allow no custom checks and therefore no borders, these last two things represent a fairly big part of the rest of the EU legal acts

 

[do.ob]

I think the argument in public might be about the wording... But in private I think the real debate will be if we want access to the single market which is pretty close to what we currently have then How much will we pay...

I suspect the eu stance will be you want what you have in all but name so you pay what you pay now... (No rebate and no EU investment into UK schemes though as we won't be in the eu)

The UK will probably say we are leaving the EU... And we are giving you access to our market so we don't want to pay anything.

I think this argument will prove very difficult to solve with a compromise hard to sell on either side

UK: we can't take hard Brexit
EU: these terms or hard Brexit

Obviously oversimplified, but I think they will find a compromise.

 

[sun_tzu]

UK: we can't take hard Brexit
EU: these terms or hard Brexit

Obviously oversimplified, but I think they will find a compromise.

Probably... It's just if the EU can find a compromise that can politically get through in the UK and all the other countries... It's a very tight timeline

 

[Pogue Mahone]

One Tory MP said that Jacob Rees-Mogg had messaged members of the European Research Group’s WhatsApp group telling them not to post their thoughts immediately, but instead to email them to him, giving his email address from the investment company he co-runs.

Christ. Can you imagine the memes?

 

[Pexbo]

Christ. Can you imagine the memes?

 

[Green_Red]

I think the argument in public might be about the wording... But in private I think the real debate will be if we want access to the single market which is pretty close to what we currently have then How much will we pay...

I suspect the eu stance will be you want what you have in all but name so you pay what you pay now... (No rebate and no EU investment into UK schemes though as we won't be in the eu)

The UK will probably say we are leaving the EU... And we are giving you access to our market so we don't want to pay anything.

I think this argument will prove very difficult to solve with a compromise hard to sell on either side

Barniers tweet aluded to that. At least I took negotiating withdrawl agreement to include what price Britain is willing to pay for continued access on their terms. Maybe Im wrong?

 

[Adisa]

Not a shred of integrity.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Having had terrible storms , no electricity for two days, no internet and virtually no mobile reception, I'm not able to reply to much but..

The EU are not going to accept the plan.
Norway is still not an option.
The Eu are not going to Split the four freedoms.
the UK still have to be in the CU and therefore will not be able to sign their own trade deals.

A soft Brexit means the UK are in the eu un all but name with no say.
People thinking otherwise are still deluding themselves.

Sleepwalking.

 

[Steven Seagull]

But you're missing his point - you're saying we won't have to follow EU regulations, he's pointing out if we're in the single market we will.

I got his point. Brexiters clearly think there’s more to life than trade and we should be able to shorten the chain of command for various other aspects of life. People believe they won’t have to put up with listening to the EU as a political entity making decisions for people they know nothing about. If Westminster is wildly out of touch with the rest of Britain, what chance has Brussels got?

Whether you agree or not I don’t know. I don’t even know if I agree but I can see the point

 

[JPRouve]

I got his point. Brexiters clearly think there’s more to life than trade and we should be able to shorten the chain of command for various other aspects of life. People believe they won’t have to put up with listening to the EU as a political entity making decisions for people they know nothing about. If Westminster is wildly out of touch with the rest of Britain, what chance has Brussels got?

Whether you agree or not I don’t know. I don’t even know if I agree but I can see the point

But that's also a misconception, if you bear in mind that the UK create between 2000 and 3000 new laws each year and that the EU creates generally between 250 and 450 new legal acts(Laws, directive, regulations and decisions). This line of thought isn't based on reality, particularly when you consider that I only mention new laws for the UK, I'm too lazy to compile it them but you can have an idea here.

 

[Drifter]

So after all the theatrics it's a softer than soft Brexit. What a joke this as all been.

 

[sun_tzu]

. , the paper includes a reference to a new “mobility framework” so “U.K. and EU citizens can continue to travel to each other’s territories, and apply for study and work.”

I wonder how this is going to work for people who travel to be with family... (Spouse & kids of somebody traveling for work)... Would we look to apply the earnings threshold we do for the rest of the world.

Also what about Brits planning to retire abroad?... (A place in the sun being taken off Air might be a brexit bonus) but yeah the Brits retired in France / Spain might be a bit nervous