Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

[Oscie]

Yes heaven forbid anyone speaks up against Tory Brexit. We should have politicians who do nothing but wave through what'll be economic disaster and instead do useful things with their time like attending concerts held in their own honour.

What we need is football-style songs. When the factories close the workers can spend their redundancy on singing lessons.

"Oh Emily Thornberry" will be the choice of soon-to-be-former Nissan workers I'd bet.

 

[Dobba]

Yes heaven forbid anyone speaks up against Tory Brexit.

Mark the date and time, Oscie criticised the Tories!

"Oh Emily Thornberry" will be the choice of soon-to-be-former Nissan workers I'd bet.

Nevermind, false alarm.

Sending Blair out worked wonders at the referendum. People love and respect him, seemingly without restraint. Blair backing a campaign can only be a positive. I'm sure the Leave campaign are panicking that the tide will now turn.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

"Business Secretary accused of sowing seeds of panic by speaking the truth about Brexit "

Well almost except the deal can't be "like" staying in the CU/SM but actually in them.

 

[Oscie]

Let's not oppose Tory Brext

Let's attack anyone who opposes Tory Brexit.


...that's fine and anyone's prerogative. It's just ironic that many of those on the Labour supporting side who believe this are usual the first to use "You're a Tory" as insult.

 

[Adisa]

Anyone follow the FT/ECJ drama with labour yesterday?

 

[Jippy]

Anyone follow the FT/ECJ drama with labour yesterday?

No was swamped at work, what was that?

 

[Adisa]

No was swamped at work, what was that?

Not only that, some MPs accused the chief whip of being overly aggressive.

 

[LawCharltonBest]

Explain it to me like i'm 5.. What does Brexit mean for English people living in England?

Keep asking and getting no real answer

 

[EyeInTheSky]

Explain it to me like i'm 5.. What does Brexit mean for English people living in England?

Keep asking and getting no real answer

"stuff"

 

[Grinner]

Explain it to me like i'm 5.. What does Brexit mean for English people living in England?

Keep asking and getting no real answer

40 years of darkness! Earthquakes, volcanoes! The dead rising from the grave! Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together, mass hysteria!

 

[Jippy]

Not only that, some MPs accused the chief whip of being overly aggressive.

Oh right, yeah, doesn't sound like joined up thinking at all, unless there are specific issues they have with these deals? Not been following that tbh.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Explain it to me like i'm 5.. What does Brexit mean for English people living in England?

Keep asking and getting no real answer

If you are 5, there is a strong probability you are wiser than any Brexiter.
No coherent answer is yet forthcoming from a Brexiter, we're still waiting.

 

[Bury Red]

Explain it to me like i'm 5.. What does Brexit mean for English people living in England?

Keep asking and getting no real answer

Depends on the type of Brexit.

Soft Brexit with CU membership:

No real changes to general standard of living, no difference to present EU immigration rates or to your travels within Europe. We will most likely be paying more into the EU for membership of the union however since we will have lost our rebates and we will no longer have any say in the EU rules but will still have to follow them. Loss of EU grants will kill off many of the community schemes and rural road schemes that have been funded that way for years with Westminster being unlikely to make up the shortfall.

No difference you will feel but as a country we'll pay more for what we already had and have no influence on how things change in the future.

Hard / No deal Brexit:

Most likely to see the cost of living rise with increases in food and fuel prices and significant increases on clothing, cars and high end electronic goods. Expect the average person to be around 1 grand per year worse off as a result and any recovery to take 10 years or more. Devaluation of sterling might help exports in the long term but will hit your savings and pensions, as a 5 year old you'll not be likely to feel the difference but old buggers like myself who were hoping to retire in the next 10 years or so will have to rethink things and most of us will end up working more years to make up the short fall. Large multinationals that manufacture here or banks and investment companies that offer services from the UK to EU countries will move some or all of their company over to the EU with the subsequent loss of jobs in those companies and also in companies that service them, impossible to predict numbers until we're over the cliff edge but we could see a few million jobs lost permanently and many other companies struggling to stay in business.

Impact on imports and travel is likely to be chaotic for the first year or more and travel into Europe will cost you more and will take longer at the entry point. Opportunities to live and work in Europe will greatly decrease as will the opportunity for students to study in European Universities. Total immigration figures and illegal immigration are unlikely to alter but we may see an initial exodus of experienced EU migrants which could hit services like the NHS hard and will likely lead to a new wave of recruited immigrants from elsewhere to fill positions where we lack trained and experienced people.

Probably not the end of the world but it's likely to feel as uncomfortable as the financial crisis and austerity measures for the foreseeable future.

 

[Dobba]

Oh right, yeah, doesn't sound like joined up thinking at all, unless there are specific issues they have with these deals? Not been following that tbh.

CETA is a steaming pile of shit.

 

[Mr Pigeon]

Explain it to me like i'm 5.. What does Brexit mean for English people living in England?

Keep asking and getting no real answer

Were gonna take back our country from the spongers and the terrorists and them fecking dainty french poodles bunch of bastards waltzing around with their puffy cheese eating tails.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Depends on the type of Brexit.

Soft Brexit with CU membership:

No real changes to general standard of living, no difference to present EU immigration rates or to your travels within Europe. We will most likely be paying more into the EU for membership of the union however since we will have lost our rebates and we will no longer have any say in the EU rules but will still have to follow them. Loss of EU grants will kill off many of the community schemes and rural road schemes that have been funded that way for years with Westminster being unlikely to make up the shortfall.

No difference you will feel but as a country we'll pay more for what we already had and have no influence on how things change in the future.

Hard / No deal Brexit:

Most likely to see the cost of living rise with increases in food and fuel prices and significant increases on clothing, cars and high end electronic goods. Expect the average person to be around 1 grand per year worse off as a result and any recovery to take 10 years or more. Devaluation of sterling might help exports in the long term but will hit your savings and pensions, as a 5 year old you'll not be likely to feel the difference but old buggers like myself who were hoping to retire in the next 10 years or so will have to rethink things and most of us will end up working more years to make up the short fall. Large multinationals that manufacture here or banks and investment companies that offer services from the UK to EU countries will move some or all of their company over to the EU with the subsequent loss of jobs in those companies and also in companies that service them, impossible to predict numbers until we're over the cliff edge but we could see a few million jobs lost permanently and many other companies struggling to stay in business.

Impact on imports and travel is likely to be chaotic for the first year or more and travel into Europe will cost you more and will take longer at the entry point. Opportunities to live and work in Europe will greatly decrease as will the opportunity for students to study in European Universities. Total immigration figures and illegal immigration are unlikely to alter but we may see an initial exodus of experienced EU migrants which could hit services like the NHS hard and will likely lead to a new wave of recruited immigrants from elsewhere to fill positions where we lack trained and experienced people.

Probably not the end of the world but it's likely to feel as uncomfortable as the financial crisis and austerity measures for the foreseeable future.

Sorry Bury but your description of Soft Brexit should include membership of the CU and SM.

 

[Bury Red]

Sorry Bury but your description of Soft Brexit should include membership of the CU and SM.

Figured I was explaining it to a 5 year old so didn't want to confuse him with things like CU, SM or ECHR. Your av erage 5 year old would not be able to tell the difference between Soft Brexit and our current EU member status and is unlikely to care despite how stupid we'd be to take a worse deal than we already have and pay more for it.

We should have given 5 year olds the vote in the referendum as we might have stood a better chance of avoiding Brexit and having to watch a bunch of politicians proving to be inferior to your average 5 year old in planning our country's future.

 

[Adebesi]

Explain it to me like i'm 5.. What does Brexit mean for English people living in England?

Keep asking and getting no real answer

Does anyone really know? Its uncharted territory. I think its literally impossible to answer the question without your own biases and expectations getting in the way. There are too many variables, too many decisions that have yet to be taken, decisions relating to questions that havent even been asked yet. So we are all basically arguing according to our own expectations about what we think will happen.

I think the only thing that comes close to being a fact is that in the short term, economically, it is going to be a shitstorm. Hard Brexit that is. Exactly how much of a shitstorm, how fiercely the shit will lash down, and how long for, I dont think anyone really knows and I dont take any model that predicts it particularly seriously, but I think the storm will come.

Long term I think we are all speculating. Not that I dont have conviction that my own views on it are right. I do fancy I have a pretty clear idea of what will happen. But I cant back those views up with facts or argue them objectively, or know with any degree of certainty what it means for English people living in England. None of us can. How can we know what deals we will make with China or the US? What regulatory concessions we will make in order to facilitate those deals. How much financial services business will move out of London. Could be none, could be a hell of a lot. In the long term, either, or anything between, is all possible, and will all have massive implications for growth, and thereby for the economy, and living standards of English people in England.

Also with immigration: how many immigrants will we let in? What kinds? Will any people be deported - people found to be here illegally, people claiming to be refugees but found by the government of the day not to qualify? In the long term, will England ever start to feel "English" the way nostalgic Brexit voters wished it did again? Or will it merely stop changing as quickly as it has in the past decade or so? Or will it carry on as much as ever, as we restrict Europeans and invite more of our commonwealth and Chinese brothers and sisters? That cant be ruled out as part of any bilateral trade deal we do with any of these emerging markets.

Anyone who answers the question above is only speculating, nobody can give you a simple answer. If they do, you should recognise it for what it is: a guess. Then you have to work out for yourself whether it appears to be an educated guess or not, how many of these variables the person making the guess has considered and what kind of position they are in to predict the answers to them.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Figured I was explaining it to a 5 year old so didn't want to confuse him with things like CU, SM or ECHR. Your av erage 5 year old would not be able to tell the difference between Soft Brexit and our current EU member status and is unlikely to care despite how stupid we'd be to take a worse deal than we already have and pay more for it.

We should have given 5 year olds the vote in the referendum as we might have stood a better chance of avoiding Brexit and having to watch a bunch of politicians proving to be inferior to your average 5 year old in planning our country's future.

I'll agree with you there.
The vote itself was bad enough but two years down the road for people to still believe and promote leaving off a cliff edge despite the obvious severe damage the country is going to suffer is utterly perplexing.

 

[Oscie]

Explain it to me like i'm 5.. What does Brexit mean for English people living in England?

Keep asking and getting no real answer

There isn't an answer beyond "taking back control" and "sky-blue-pink Brexit" and "shut up, Remoaner!"

 

[Virgil]

Does anyone really know? Its uncharted territory. I think its literally impossible to answer the question without your own biases and expectations getting in the way. There are too many variables, too many decisions that have yet to be taken, decisions relating to questions that havent even been asked yet. So we are all basically arguing according to our own expectations about what we think will happen.

I think the only thing that comes close to being a fact is that in the short term, economically, it is going to be a shitstorm. Hard Brexit that is. Exactly how much of a shitstorm, how fiercely the shit will lash down, and how long for, I dont think anyone really knows and I dont take any model that predicts it particularly seriously, but I think the storm will come.

Long term I think we are all speculating. Not that I dont have conviction that my own views on it are right. I do fancy I have a pretty clear idea of what will happen. But I cant back those views up with facts or argue them objectively, or know with any degree of certainty what it means for English people living in England. None of us can. How can we know what deals we will make with China or the US? What regulatory concessions we will make in order to facilitate those deals. How much financial services business will move out of London. Could be none, could be a hell of a lot. In the long term, either, or anything between, is all possible, and will all have massive implications for growth, and thereby for the economy, and living standards of English people in England.

Also with immigration: how many immigrants will we let in? What kinds? Will any people be deported - people found to be here illegally, people claiming to be refugees but found by the government of the day not to qualify? In the long term, will England ever start to feel "English" the way nostalgic Brexit voters wished it did again? Or will it merely stop changing as quickly as it has in the past decade or so? Or will it carry on as much as ever, as we restrict Europeans and invite more of our commonwealth and Chinese brothers and sisters? That cant be ruled out as part of any bilateral trade deal we do with any of these emerging markets.

Anyone who answers the question above is only speculating, nobody can give you a simple answer. If they do, you should recognise it for what it is: a guess. Then you have to work out for yourself whether it appears to be an educated guess or not, how many of these variables the person making the guess has considered and what kind of position they are in to predict the answers to them.

A considered response. How refreshing. Such a pity more folk on either side are not a tad more circumspect. Nice one Adebesi

 

[Paul the Wolf]

The problem with that is there are plenty of things that we do know. Just a few to start with.

1. The EU will not be changing their rules for the benefit of the UK. How many times have they said that - Brexiters aren't listening or don't care. Desperate Remainers are crossing their fingers and hoping. Not happening.

2. For there not to be a hard border on the island of Ireland the UK must stay in the CU/SM or the border's in the Irish Sea.

3. A completely frictionless border , not a bit frictionless, is vital for the production of cars and similar products which the Uk want to export to the rest of the world (which they already do) but apparently want to stop that too by destroying those industries.

4. A transition period is only possible if the UK resolve the Irish border problem and UK/EU citizen rights and no trade agreements before the UK leaves.

One of things we don't know is what will be happening to immigrants/emigrants.
Another thing we don't know how severe the damage will be, this is speculation.

 

[Adebesi]

The problem with that is there are plenty of things that we do know. Just a few to start with.

1. The EU will not be changing their rules for the benefit of the UK. How many times have they said that - Brexiters aren't listening or don't care. Desperate Remainers are crossing their fingers and hoping. Not happening.

2. For there not to be a hard border on the island of Ireland the UK must stay in the CU/SM or the border's in the Irish Sea.

3. A completely frictionless border , not a bit frictionless, is vital for the production of cars and similar products which the Uk want to export to the rest of the world (which they already do) but apparently want to stop that too by destroying those industries.

4. A transition period is only possible if the UK resolve the Irish border problem and UK/EU citizen rights and no trade agreements before the UK leaves.

One of things we don't know is what will be happening to immigrants/emigrants.
Another thing we don't know how severe the damage will be, this is speculation.

How is that a problem with what I said? I never said we know nothing. Just that there are enough variables to make the long term implications impossible to predict.

The factors you mentioned are part of the reason an economic shitstorm is inevitable in the short term. But to say those problems will bring the UK to its knees in the longer term is clearly speculation.

 

[Adebesi]

Also I ignored the question of Ireland because the question was specifically about England and the English.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

How is that a problem with what I said? I never said we know nothing. Just that there are enough variables to make the long term implications impossible to predict.

The factors you mentioned are part of the reason an economic shitstorm is inevitable in the short term. But to say those problems will bring the UK to its knees in the longer term is clearly speculation.

It depends what you mean by short, medium and long term.

If the UK leaves the CU/SM which could be as soon as in 9 months time, for which they are not even slightly prepared for, how will they ever recover in any any reasonable amount of time. I agree it's speculation as to how bad it could but it'll be very bad to catastrophic. It's the initial damage that will be the worst, companies leaving, currency collapsing, confidence at zero.

The question is ,which is speculation, is how they recover, signing trade deals with USA and China is not going to change that, they already sell to them.

 

[Adebesi]

There was an interesting article in the FT a few days ago. It said May is inching towards a position where she wants to stay part of the CU / SM and accept EU jurisdiction and regulation of goods. But wants to negotiate a separation for services.

Why we would want to do that - make a deal to the benefit of the much smaller part of our economy, ignoring services which dominate it, and specifically excluding financial services - I have no idea. Apparently some people think the ability to make free trade deals with EM would be valuable for The City, even if it ended up without passporting rights.

 

[Adebesi]

It depends what you mean by short, medium and long term.

If the UK leaves the CU/SM which could be as soon as in 9 months time, for which they are not even slightly prepared for, how will they ever recover in any any reasonable amount of time. I agree it's speculation as to how bad it could but it'll be very bad to catastrophic. It's the initial damage that will be the worst, companies leaving, currency collapsing, confidence at zero.

The question is ,which is speculation, is how they recover, signing trade deals with USA and China is not going to change that, they already sell to them.

If we go over the cliff edge the shit storm will last quite some time, I agree.

Fwiw I probably agree with you in my assumptions about what will happen. I'm just saying, people want certainty, they want simple answers in layman's terms, but they can't have them. Nobody is in a position to give them, no matter how much information they gather.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

If we go over the cliff edge the shit storm will last quite some time, I agree.

Fwiw I probably agree with you in my assumptions about what will happen. I'm just saying, people want certainty, they want simple answers in layman's terms, but they can't have them. Nobody is in a position to give them, no matter how much information they gather.

Well tomorrow Theresa May's at the EU summit and has been told that the EU wants clarity tomorrow so within the next few days we should be a bit more clear as how things will work out. The noises coming out of the EU appear to be that they're now expecting a no deal scenario.

No doubt May will say she wants a bespoke deal and the EU needs the UK as much as the other way round. That's no deal talk.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

There was an interesting article in the FT a few days ago. It said May is inching towards a position where she wants to stay part of the CU / SM and accept EU jurisdiction and regulation of goods. But wants to negotiate a separation for services.

Why we would want to do that - make a deal to the benefit of the much smaller part of our economy, ignoring services which dominate it, and specifically excluding financial services - I have no idea. Apparently some people think the ability to make free trade deals with EM would be valuable for The City, even if it ended up without passporting rights.

This is what's driving the EU crazy, she's trying to cherry pick yet again, it's indivisible.

As far as I'm concerned, and this is speculation, she will continue to pick bits and pieces in such a manner to delay the inevitable.

The EU just want to get on with the future, even Barnier who has the patience of a saint is becoming tetchy. Brexit is becoming a low priority for the EU and seem to just want it over with.

 

[vidic blood & sand]

How is that a problem with what I said? I never said we know nothing. Just that there are enough variables to make the long term implications impossible to predict.

The factors you mentioned are part of the reason an economic shitstorm is inevitable in the short term. But to say those problems will bring the UK to its knees in the longer term is clearly speculation.

If impossible to predict, you acknowledge that possible long term benefits may make any possible short term chaos worthwhile?

 

[Adebesi]

If impossible to predict, you acknowledge that possible long term benefits may make any possible short term chaos worthwhile?

Yes.

Which is not to say I expect it. But it's certainly possible. Absolutely.

 

[vidic blood & sand]

Yes.

Agreed.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

If impossible to predict, you acknowledge that possible long term benefits may make any possible short term chaos worthwhile?

Two Brexiters resurfacing in one night - not expecting an answer but how long do you expect the short-term chaos to last and what will be the long term benefit and after how many years.

 

[Adebesi]

The other thing is the answer might be yes for some and no for others. People who were dissatisfied with Europe, people who longed for an end to immigration, are more likely to see a positive outcome. Personally, as someone who had no problem with immigration and enjoyed living in a cosmopolitan country, it is probably less likely.

 

[JPRouve]

The other thing is the answer might be yes for some and no for others. People who were dissatisfied with Europe, people who longed for an end to immigration, are more likely to see a positive outcome. Personally, as someone who had no problem with immigration and enjoyed living in a cosmopolitan country, it is probably less likely.

At a micro level, it's a lot more random. The people that might be happy to see less immigrants could also see less jobs, some won't see any difference, others will see less immigrants and more jobs, while others will see more visible immigrants and more or less jobs.

 

[vidic blood & sand]

Two Brexiters resurfacing in one night - not expecting an answer but how long do you expect the short-term chaos to last and what will be the long term benefit be and after how many years.

The long term benefits are obvious. We'd be a free governing nation again, and would be able to trade with whoever we wished. Short term problems are unknown, because the leaving process is unknown.
There's also the possibility of EU reform due to the growing issues in countries like Germany and Italy especially at the moment. If the reform was quite significant, it may be enough to force a second referendum.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

The long term benefits are obvious. We'd be a free governing nation again, and would be able to trade with whoever we wished. Short term problems are unknown, because the leaving process is unknown.
There's also the possibility of EU reform due to the growing issues in countries like Germany and Italy especially at the moment. If the reform was quite significant, it may be enough to force a second referendum.

But the UK is a sovereign nation and governs itself. It is also able to trade with and does currently trade with whoever it wishes.
How do refugees from outside Europe, which I presume you are referring to, affect the UK. They already did agree a long time ago not to take many refugees and the UK already has borders to stop them. Whether the EU exists or not those refugees will still be there.

At present the UK government is insisting on leaving the CU/SM and has very little time to change that stance which means in practice that if they don't change that stance they're leaving for good without transition next March. I doubt the EU will change much in that short space of time or that even a referendum would be wanted or arranged in that time.

 

[Reiver]

This is what's driving the EU crazy, she's trying to cherry pick yet again, it's indivisible.

As far as I'm concerned, and this is speculation, she will continue to pick bits and pieces in such a manner to delay the inevitable.

The EU just want to get on with the future, even Barnier who has the patience of a saint is becoming tetchy. Brexit is becoming a low priority for the EU and seem to just want it over with.

This is the UKs problem with Europe and has been for years, in my opinion. We won't commit to it fully but want all the benefits of being in the EU, using the "they need us more than we need them" argument. Sceptics complain about the Germany/France axis making all the decisions and seem to think we should be an equal partner.
Anyway, the "they need us more than we need them" argument is about to be put to the test. We best hope it's true

 

[Paul the Wolf]

This is the UKs problem with Europe and has been for years, in my opinion. We won't commit to it fully but want all the benefits of being in the EU, using the "they need us more than we need them" argument. Sceptics complain about the Germany/France axis making all the decisions and seem to think we should be an equal partner.
Anyway, the "they need us more than we need them" argument is about to be put to the test. We best hope it's true

But the UK is ,until they leave anyway, as equal as France is, Germany have slightly more representation because they have a larger population. In addition to that the Uk has a lot of concessions most other countries don't have.

The problem is that the EU is not explained well enough to the British public and that interest in voting for their MEP has been low on people's agenda. This led to people like Farage being voted in as him and his ilk had no intention of representing the British interest in the EU parliament.

 

[vidic blood & sand]

But the UK is a sovereign nation and governs itself. It is also able to trade with and does currently trade with whoever it wishes.
How do refugees from outside Europe, which I presume you are referring to, affect the UK. They already did agree a long time ago not to take many refugees and the UK already has borders to stop them. Whether the EU exists or not those refugees will still be there.

At present the UK government is insisting on leaving the CU/SM and has very little time to change that stance which means in practice that if they don't change that stance they're leaving for good without transition next March. I doubt the EU will change much in that short space of time or that even a referendum would be wanted or arranged in that time.

We currently trade according to EU regulations. This makes the EU sovereign where trade is concerned.
Regardless of how immigration affects the UK, there is anti EU sentiment growing throughout europe. The EU cannot afford to see too many other countries vote to leave. There's a serious risk of them losing Italy.
As for all of the negotiating, who knows? We have a weak government in power with a leader who is a remainer, and the majority of westminster is out to derail the leave process. We have to wait and see what the leave process will be. However, the threat of walking away with no deal has to be upheld by us if we do not want to be taken to the cleaners by the EU, which is why May wanted a bigger majority government. That backfired massively, and this also has made the government weaker.