Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
7% of Germany's total exports go to the UK. Of course it's not negligible but you have to look at it from the other way round too, how much of the UK's business goes to the EU. Nobody wants it to happen but it is happening. everyone's going to suffer to one degree or another. Certain companies in the EU will undoubtedly close because of this.

The point is the whole structure and purpose of the EU is not going change because the UK is leaving .

I recently retired but I was in trading (goods) and shipping. I was MD of two companies in the Uk and one in France so I hope I would understand accounts.
Absolutely, the UK relies on the EU market too. My point is that in the end it will have nothing to do politics and at the end of the day producers will still need a market for the goods they produce.

The way you make out its like the UK will be isolated and no one will be able to buy any goods. That is not going to happen.

The company I work for will air freight aluminium products from China and turn a 60% margin into a 4% margin in order to keep the customers supplied and happy. Business will continue.
 
https://www.statista.com/statistics/655786/export-import-vehicles-value-germany/
Export value in 2016 estimated to €220 Billion.

The EU (not just Germany) represents €38 Billion of the imported car market in the UK, about €22 Billion of that is from Germany.
http://www.acea.be/statistics/article/motor-vehicle-trade-between-the-uk-and-main-eu-partners

I got my numbers wrong but my point stands... no company or industry is going to allow a market like that to be cut off from them. Especially not in an economy predominantly corportist in nature.
Your posts show you still don't understand Brexit and the EU.
The EU is a legal construct. There are only a few legal options available if the UK wants to leave and take a deal. It appears it wants none of those options.
It would be the UK cutting off its market, not the EU.
 
Absolutely, the UK relies on the EU market too. My point is that in the end it will have nothing to do politics and at the end of the day producers will still need a market for the goods they produce.

The way you make out its like the UK will be isolated and no one will be able to buy any goods. That is not going to happen.

The company I work for will air freight aluminium products from China and turn a 60% margin into a 4% margin in order to keep the customers supplied and happy. Business will continue.

Yes trading will continue of course, the purchase and sale of goods will continue. Just in a different and more inefficient way.
Tariffs are one concern but is not the major concern.
My main concern for the UK is the frictionless border - it is vital that goods are able to move freely back and forth because they will between the other 27 EU countries.
If the current frictionless border develops friction, ie if the UK leaves the CU/SM, then companies eg Airbus, BMW, Nissan etc will move their production to the area where there is no friction, it is not to punish the UK like Hunt seems to think, it is vital in the production.

Trade does not operate like in the 1960s like some people think. It doesn't even function as in the 1980s or even 1990s.

And goods are only one part of the problem.
 
When all this is over will the UK try Farage for treason and be hunted down by lynch mob Brexiteers.

You'd have to say the 3-5 years leading up to Brexit were seriously influenced by Camerons continued threat for a referendum. Didnt he win his PM term based somewhat on an "I will deliver a referendum" promise in the first place. This is not just Farage, and Im not trying to be an apologist for him. I think the damage was done well before the referendum was even announced.
 
I see the "german car manufacturers will ensure a deal gets done" nonsense is still being peddled 2 years on, despite being debunked by the german trade federation the day after the referendum.

BMW et al are far more interested in the huge developing markets such as China and India than a tiny island of soon to be poor people.
 
You'd have to say the 3-5 years leading up to Brexit were seriously influenced by Camerons continued threat for a referendum. Didnt he win his PM term based somewhat on an "I will deliver a referendum" promise in the first place. This is not just Farage, and Im not trying to be an apologist for him. I think the damage was done well before the referendum was even announced.

Cameron was desperate to ensure the Tories were in power at the 2015 election and promised the referendum to buy off the UKIP and Labour Eurosceptic votes.
The Tories are currently trying to wriggle a way through to the 2022 election by trying to kick the can down the road till then. What the Tories have a problem with is that end of the road is March 2019.

I'm more referring to the underhand dealings plus the lies spread by Farage in order to obtain Brexit, notwithstanding the 20 years he has spent as an MEP in the EU parliament being paid to represent his constituents and the UK and doing nothing of the sort, just occasionally turning up and hurling insults.
 
I've not been following this for a while but just saw that no deal is even money on betfair.

How the feck did we get to this point?
The call for a parliamentary meaningful vote on negotiations hasn't helped. There could be enough disgruntled MPs of both Leave and Remain camps to vote against the government, in which case hard brexit will be the likely result. The opposite of what most of the vote protagonists actually want of course, but they haven't thought it through.
 
Cameron was desperate to ensure the Tories were in power at the 2015 election and promised the referendum to buy off the UKIP and Labour Eurosceptic votes.
The Tories are currently trying to wriggle a way through to the 2022 election by trying to kick the can down the road till then. What the Tories have a problem with is that end of the road is March 2019.

I'm more referring to the underhand dealings plus the lies spread by Farage in order to obtain Brexit, notwithstanding the 20 years he has spent as an MEP in the EU parliament being paid to represent his constituents and the UK and doing nothing of the sort, just occasionally turning up and hurling insults.

All those years he complained about them while taking a hefty wage and pension and doing nothing of benefit to this country.
 
Yes trading will continue of course, the purchase and sale of goods will continue. Just in a different and more inefficient way.
Tariffs are one concern but is not the major concern.
My main concern for the UK is the frictionless border - it is vital that goods are able to move freely back and forth because they will between the other 27 EU countries.
If the current frictionless border develops friction, ie if the UK leaves the CU/SM, then companies eg Airbus, BMW, Nissan etc will move their production to the area where there is no friction, it is not to punish the UK like Hunt seems to think, it is vital in the production.

Trade does not operate like in the 1960s like some people think. It doesn't even function as in the 1980s or even 1990s.

And goods are only one part of the problem.

People on our grapevine reckon there is a long-term objective of Airbus to move bits of its operation to China. That would be something that would normally take decades. But they could use all this uncertainty to speed things up if we are not careful. Some politicians underestimate how powerful big business is. They have this notion that everything will sort itself out and we'll all find other things to do and other customers to do it for. Somebody mentioned that Boeing would move into the UK if Airbus moved out. Really?
 
Leaving the EU is like selling your car, buying it back in bits and trying to assemble it only to find there's only 3 seats, one headlight and no reverse gear.
 
People on our grapevine reckon there is a long-term objective of Airbus to move bits of its operation to China. That would be something that would normally take decades. But they could use all this uncertainty to speed things up if we are not careful. Some politicians underestimate how powerful big business is. They have this notion that everything will sort itself out and we'll all find other things to do and other customers to do it for. Somebody mentioned that Boeing would move into the UK if Airbus moved out. Really?

Companies will always aim for the most efficient and profitable solution. Despite the claims of globalisation from the UK government they are effectively making the UK less accessible and creating problems and obstacles that were not there. The Uk are living in the past.
 
What will happen is the 29th of March will come and then those businesses in Europe that rely on British trade will come to the table and Britain will work out a trade policy that suits Britain.

This doesn't make any sense. March 29th is the leaving date. If they wait until then, both the UK and the EU will be hit, but the UK will be hit considerably harder. Why would the EU then agree a deal that suits Britain? All they'd have to do is sit back and wait for the UK to cave in to pretty much whatever terms the EU wanted to offer. They might have some parts of EU industry shouting at them, but the UK would have gridlock at the ports, no planes able to fly to Europe and an almost endless list of other disasterous crisis events occuring. The two situations aren't even vaguely comparable.
 
Leaving the EU is like selling your car, buying it back in bits and trying to assemble it only to find there's only 3 seats, one headlight and no reverse gear.
With a 15% tariff slapped on the price.
 
Do people really think the consumer will switch from BMW's, Mercedes and Audi to Jaguar or Lexus just because they Germans will be more expensive? Some might but the vast majority won't. It'll make it even more of a status symbol.

Are Vauxhall Ford Toyota Honda and Nissan going to take the market from VW, Seat, Skoda, Renault, Fiat, Citeron? Maybe.
 
Do people really think the consumer will switch from BMW's, Mercedes and Audi to Jaguar or Lexus just because they Germans will be more expensive? Some might but the vast majority won't. It'll make it even more of a status symbol.

Are Vauxhall Ford Toyota Honda and Nissan going to take the market from VW, Seat, Skoda, Renault, Fiat, Citeron? Maybe.

None of the major UK car manufacturers are British. The Japanese have already said they will pull out without frictionless borders as have BMW , Vauxhall is owned by PSA. They will all move to the European mainland. It's not just the tariffs to worry about.
 
See Id get a ban for that but Im guessing you will Bertie Ahern it.
Last time you were callin me Tubriday and Enda. Today its Unionist and Bertie Ahern. Ye literally havent got a feckin scooby doo have ye? Where are you from?
 
Personally I am beginning to think my own country should consider getting out with this tariff on US goods. Ireland doesnt even manufacture Steel /Aluminium and we're being forced to put tariffs on US goods because Merkel and Macron are unhappy because their industries have been hit by Trumps policies. feck the EU! Theres only 2 countries that even matter and none of their policies are designed for the benefit of EU citizens not living in the economic center.

Share Victory, Share Defeat. Those are the club rules. We're all innit together.
 
14% (not 40%) of cars produced in Germany go to the UK (at the moment) and as being mainly high range cars someone will pay 60k will also pay 66k for their car. That 14% represents only 1.7% of all of Germany's exports, it's peanuts.

The point is with your other arguments when the UK leaves they will have collaboration with no other country. Germany have 26 other countries + those in agreements outside the EU.

Of course the EU will not come out unscathed but you are comparing a minor scrape with an amputation. Of course supply chains will be disrupted both ways. The 27 other countries in the EU can cope, the Uk's oxygen supply will be cut off.

Trump happens to pick Steel and Aluminium, the UK exports Steel and Aluminium, he could pick something else, he's talking about cars. The Uk's biggest export is cars and that's to the USA. Ireland don't make cars.

If crashing out on a 'no deal' basis was likened to a self inflicted wound, the EU is chopping off a finger, the UK is chopping off an arm.
 
But how many of the tariffs imposed by the US affect Irish companies and how many tariffs imposed by the EU affect Irish consumers? At some poibt you kind of have to take the blinkers off and think is this actually good for Ireland?

Being a member of the EU. Your economy is the size of a gnat compared to the US, any time they wanted to bully a concession from you they could. This round of tarrifs might not hurt you much directly but the next round? You might need some mates then
 
What will happen is the 29th of March will come and then those businesses in Europe that rely on British trade will come to the table and Britain will work out a trade policy that suits Britain.

It can get cockier. ...That suits Britain, so EU will bent to UK. What do you think europeans think when a brexiteer says that?

EU will take a blow no matter what, but the benefits of having a pebble in the shoe, with a preference treatment (and asking for more), blocking decisions as a buffer of US will be more positive than the UK being out of the EU. Also, the EU have to show that the project can't be threatened by anyone.

EU is a terrible club to be in, I would rather prefer not to be in. But economically speaking there is no discussion that is a big mistake to leave. Leaving and accepting the Union custome/4 freedoms would be ideal.
 
EU is a terrible club to be in, I would rather prefer not to be in. But economically speaking there is no discussion that is a big mistake to leave. Leaving and accepting the Union custome/4 freedoms would be ideal.

I'm genuinely curious why is it terrible?
 
I'm genuinely curious why is it terrible?

Uf, it will be difficult to explain MY OPINION with my poor english. Also is not the thread to do it.

IMO, politically speaking they don't do politics (in the big scheme of things) but what economically suits better the private sector and the politicians that they are bind to them. When everything goes right, we are europeans. When it goes wrong you are German, you are greek, you are brittish, you are spanish, etc...The austerity rules applied in europe during the crisis for example. In Greece had been draconian. Instead of treating and reacting with it as a part of you (EU), the EU treated Greece like something external, not forgiving anything, not reacting in time and pressuring a lot while the referendum that took place in Greece not respecting at all the sovereignty of a member. Even so the referendum was won by the ones that they did not want a 3rd rescue plan, but the greek government cave in because the EU gave no other option. I read some things about Varoufakis and how the EU worked, and it was appalling.

That is just an exemple. Others like the international policy on the middle east, the way we treat refugees and immigration, the way they tried to feck us over with the CETA and the TTIP with secretively negotiations, the recent law that they past about internet, etc...


Is an excellent economic union area that is becoming more and more dangerous because is eroding little by little the social welfare of the european states in favour of the neoliberalism.
 
Uf, it will be difficult to explain MY OPINION with my poor english. Also is not the thread to do it.

IMO, politically speaking they don't do politics (in the big scheme of things) but what economically suits better the private sector and the politicians that they are bind to them. When everything goes right, we are europeans. When it goes wrong you are German, you are greek, you are brittish, you are spanish, etc...The austerity rules applied in europe during the crisis for example. In Greece had been draconian. Instead of treating and reacting with it as a part of you (EU), the EU treated Greece like something external, not forgiving anything, not reacting in time and pressuring a lot while the referendum that took place in Greece not respecting at all the sovereignty of a member. Even so the referendum was won by the ones that they did not want a 3rd rescue plan, but the greek government cave in because the EU gave no other option. I read some things about Varoufakis and how the EU worked, and it was appalling.

That is just an exemple. Others like the international policy on the middle east, the way we treat refugees and immigration, the way they tried to feck us over with the CETA and the TTIP with secretively negotiations, the recent law that they past about internet, etc...


Is an excellent economic union area that is becoming more and more dangerous because is eroding little by little the social welfare of the european states in favour of the neoliberalism.

I agree with that to an extent about Greece, however the response has a lot to do with domestic politics as opppsed to the EU. Similarly for the immigration crisis. If their was no EU the crisis would still have happened, Italy and Greece would still be alone and dealing with a large number of refugees. Atleast with the EU there might be a collective response.

I belive the EU is the only hope for lefty politics. Against the competition from mega nations like the US and China and the globe straddling power of multinational corporations only the EU as a collective, and not our individual nations have a chance of holding a higher standard for consumers. Personally I don't think it does a bad job in that regard currently It's unionism for nations
 
I agree with that to an extent about Greece, however the response has a lot to do with domestic politics as opppsed to the EU. Similarly for the immigration crisis. If their was no EU the crisis would still have happened, Italy and Greece would still be alone and dealing with a large number of refugees. Atleast with the EU there might be a collective response.

I belive the EU is the only hope for lefty politics. Against the competition from mega nations like the US and China and the globe straddling power of multinational corporations only the EU as a collective, and not our individual nations have a chance of holding a higher standard for consumers. Personally I don't think it does a bad job in that regard currently It's unionism for nations

You can't really agree with that, surely. The EU isn't a federation, it's a cooperation of countries, every country is sovereign, you are always greek, british or spanish.