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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

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Fener1907 said:
Corbyn expressed his doubts about the EU in the past, there wasn't exactly any gusto in his rhetoric to remain, and now he is intent on the UK being removed. All of it makes it obvious enough that he isn't the pro-EU idealist that people still appear to dream of him becoming in order to thwart Brexit at the last moment.

With all of that said, what are the fundamental issues behind Corbyn's opposition to the EU? If all of this isn't necessarily stemming from his opposition to the EU, then what is the long game in terms of domestic politics?

I'm sure there are some people here who knew of him long before he became fashionable and have a greater insight into what his intentions are.
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I remember him commenting on the Eurozone in particular and he thought it was a bad idea, he said something along the lines of "You will just see the northern countries get stronger and the southern countries suffering"

Well, he's not wrong on that point.
 
Stanley Road said:
I remember him commenting on the Eurozone in particular and he thought it was a bad idea, he said something along the lines of "You will just see the northern countries get stronger and the southern countries suffering"

Well, he's not wrong on that point.
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I see this point made a lot, and I've even said it myself on numerous occasions. The problem is, I don't really know what I'm talking about, and my grasp of economics is pretty shite, so I wouldn't even know where to begin to see if there's any truth to it.
 
Stanley Road said:
I remember him commenting on the Eurozone in particular and he thought it was a bad idea, he said something along the lines of "You will just see the northern countries get stronger and the southern countries suffering"

Well, he's not wrong on that point.
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Whereas if it wasn't for the Eurozone the southern countries would be booming and the northern countries would be suffering?
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Whereas if it wasn't for the Eurozone the southern countries would be booming and the northern countries would be suffering?
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Yeah, I always found this idea bullshit. Nobody forced the southern European economies to rely on shitty growth plans and corruption. All those problems we see today have been present for decades, it's not the Euros fault. In fact, the EUro and the prospect of a stable currency would have been a great starting point for reform, yet it was used for fraudulent politics.
 
fcbforever said:
Yeah, I always found this idea bullshit. Nobody forced the southern European economies to rely on shitty growth plans and corruption. All those problems we see today have been present for decades, it's not the Euros fault. In fact, the EUro and the prospect of a stable currency would have been a great starting point for reform, yet it was used for fraudulent politics.
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Yeah, those decades long corrupt countries are exactly the type you invite into your monetary union. Feck me. Are you sure?
 
Fener1907 said:
I see this point made a lot, and I've even said it myself on numerous occasions. The problem is, I don't really know what I'm talking about, and my grasp of economics is pretty shite, so I wouldn't even know where to begin to see if there's any truth to it.
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The thought is that a country undergoing a debt crisis, if they have debt denominated in their own currency they can just increase the money supply and inflate their way out of the debt crisis. You can do similar to attempt to alleviate any balance of payments problem, by devaluing your own currency and therefore making your exports relatively cheaper and imports more expensive. When Greece when through their debt crisis they had no ability to change their monetary supply because its controlled by the ECB.

Its one of the oldest arguments in economics which goes back 100 years now (was being argued back in the 20s with Germany's post-WWI reparations, debt and resulting hyperinflation). Its more detailed than left v right, but to put it generically the left believes that developing countries should stay aware and keep their currency relatively undervalued to help with domestic industry and exports, whilst the right believes that you should let your relative currency value float freely, keep your govt accounts healthy and low capital constraints to allow you to attract more investments both into funding govt debt and also the private sector.
 
MTF said:
The thought is that a country undergoing a debt crisis, if they have debt denominated in their own currency they can just increase the money supply and inflate their way out of the debt crisis. You can do similar to attempt to alleviate any balance of payments problem, by devaluing your own currency and therefore making your exports relatively cheaper and imports more expensive. When Greece when through their debt crisis they had no ability to change their monetary supply because its controlled by the ECB.

Its one of the oldest arguments in economics which goes back 100 years now (was being argued back in the 20s with Germany's post-WWI reparations, debt and resulting hyperinflation). Its more detailed than left v right, but to put it generically the left believes that developing countries should stay aware and keep their currency relatively undervalued to help with domestic industry and exports, whilst the right believes that you should let your relative currency value float freely, keep your govt accounts healthy and low capital constraints to allow you to attract more investments both into funding govt debt and also the private sector.
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An actual answer! I asked in order to improve my understanding and somebody delivers. Thanks for that. Greatly appreciated.
 
Stanley Road said:
If you say so, you know the truth though.
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Yes I do, Greece was doing OK up to the crisis 10 years ago. Notwithstanding it lied, as did Italy, about its debt when it joined the Euro. It has taken longer to recover but it is recovering. Possibly overtaken the UK now?
If it wasn't in the Euro it could have devalued its currency, that went well for the UK in the 60s.

But the point is that the UK isn't in and wasn't going to be in the Eurozone, so what was Corbyn on about?
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Yes I do, Greece was doing OK up to the crisis 10 years ago. Notwithstanding it lied, as did Italy, about its debt when it joined the Euro. It has taken longer to recover but it is recovering. Possibly overtaken the UK now?
If it wasn't in the Euro it could have devalued its currency, that went well for the UK in the 60s.

But the point is that the UK isn't in and wasn't going to be in the Eurozone, so what was Corbyn on about?
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Well not really, when you cant devalue your currency you have to devalue from within. Greece have done that with extreme measures. Thats austerity for you.
 
Stanley Road said:
Well not really, when you cant devalue your currency you have to devalue from within. Greece have done that with extreme measures. Thats austerity for you.
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The UK have applied austerity too and they are not in the Eurozone.
If you devalue the currency that's all very well making your exports cheaper but your imports become more expensive so your deficit could get even wider if you import more than you export.
But anyway, you didn't reply about Corbyn, whether it's true or not about the north/south question why does this worry Corbyn in relation to the UK.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Whereas if it wasn't for the Eurozone the southern countries would be booming and the northern countries would be suffering?
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well not exactly, you asking this for arguments sake. Wasn't Italy the 7th largest economy in the world? is it now? My point is that they now have no tool to do anything about it except devalue from within, that's not working at all. From a doc I saw on the telly France was a big player in persuading the EU to allow the southern countries join the Eurozone and why? Shame, shame at thought of being the weakest country in the Eurozone, that's just vanity. Still it was just a documentary so must be bollox.
 
Flicking through my company facebook page the other day and noticed a few likes from someone with an 'I'm voting UKIP' banner on their picture. I checked out their feed and it was literally nothing but shared memes about illegal immigrant rape gangs, halal, 'young people should be grateful that we won the war' (despite them not being old enough to fight in it) and 'share if you remember'....

Is it fair to say there are people out there who have been 'radicalised' by social media? I don't want to use the stupid label but I certainly think most sensible people would probably avoid a conversation with such an individual.
 
Stanley Road said:
well not exactly, you asking this for arguments sake. Wasn't Italy the 7th largest economy in the world? is it now? My point is that they now have no tool to do anything about it except devalue from within, that's not working at all. From a doc I saw on the telly France was a big player in persuading the EU to allow the southern countries join the Eurozone and why? Shame, shame at thought of being the weakest country in the Eurozone, that's just vanity. Still it was just a documentary so must be bollox.
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Italy has been overtaken by India, which is hardly surprising but is still 8th. India will overtake the UK soon as well. Greece's deficit is coming down, it's taken a longer time. Greece's problems are more complicated than the Euro argument. Greece and Italy concealed some of their debt to enable them to join the Euro which was discovered later.
It's the $64 million question, would they be better off outside the Euro.

We may have an answer to another $64million question next year when(if) the UK leaves the EU.
 
Is Stanley the closest thing to a leaver in this thread atm? Have all the leavers... Left?
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Italy has been overtaken by India, which is hardly surprising but is still 8th. India will overtake the UK soon as well. Greece's deficit is coming down, it's taken a longer time. Greece's problems are more complicated than the Euro argument. Greece and Italy concealed some of their debt to enable them to join the Euro which was discovered later.
It's the $64 million question, would they be better off outside the Euro.

We may have an answer to another $64million question next year when(if) the UK leaves the EU.
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Also for context regarding France in 1999.

https://www.economist.com/node/209559
 
Anyone seen it?

tZN1rGn.jpg
 
Support for Brexit falls sharply in Northern Ireland

Northern Ireland would vote overwhelmingly in favour of remaining in the EU if a second referendum was held, a survey has found.

The survey comes as the Brexit secretary, David Davis, made a second flying visit to Northern Ireland on Sunday, meeting businesses as part of his cabinet research into the “maximum facilitation” option for a post-Brexit customs system.

In 2016, the region voted 56% to remain and 44% to leave, but support for leaving the bloc has fallen 13 points to 31%, undermining the Democratic Unionist party’s continued staunch backing for Brexit.

“The proportion wanting to remain has risen since the 2016 referendum as more people have become aware of the possible costs and inconveniences of leaving the EU, as citizens and as employees or employers,” said Brendan O’Leary, a professor of political science at Queen’s University Belfast.
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https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/may/21/support-for-brexit-falls-sharply-in-northern-ireland
 
Adisa said:
Mogg and co will turn this country into the world's biggest tax haven.
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I've wondered for a while now, does anyone actually think that ridiculous toff twat could actually win an election? I keep making terrible predictions, so I'm doubting myself now, but I just don't see it.
 
Kentonio said:
I've wondered for a while now, does anyone actually think that ridiculous toff twat could actually win an election? I keep making terrible predictions, so I'm doubting myself now, but I just don't see it.
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I think he might. Despite loathing the meat of his politics I find the bloke to be quite charming and his mode of speaking strangely compelling. I suspect he's the definition of statesmanlike for a great number of people and I can definitely see him persuading enough doubters of his ineffable wisdom to win a general. When push comes to shove we're still largely socialised to be a nation of hat-doffers. Dude'll wrap himself in the flag, stare into the middle distance and have opinion leaders and Times op-eds devoted to praising his commanding calm and political acumen.
 
C3Pique said:
Flicking through my company facebook page the other day and noticed a few likes from someone with an 'I'm voting UKIP' banner on their picture. I checked out their feed and it was literally nothing but shared memes about illegal immigrant rape gangs, halal, 'young people should be grateful that we won the war' (despite them not being old enough to fight in it) and 'share if you remember'....

Is it fair to say there are people out there who have been 'radicalised' by social media? I don't want to use the stupid label but I certainly think most sensible people would probably avoid a conversation with such an individual.
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The unfortunate reality is that so many people are seemingly unable to think critically for themselves, and so take anything they see online at face value.
 
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