Leaving customs union properly is most popular post-Brexit customs option, poll suggests
We’ve got some new Guardian/ICM polling out today. And its good news (ish) for Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg
Customs union
First, we asked about the customs union. As the psephologist
John Curtice explained in
a recent blog for What UK Thinks, the existing polling on this topic is not very satisfactory. If you ask people if they are in favour of customs checks for people and goods coming from the EU, they tend to say yes. But if you ask people if they are in favour of staying in the customs union (which would remove the need for said checks), they also say yes. “One feature of the polling and survey evidence to date is that few pollsters and researchers have dared attempt to ask voters specifically about what customs arrangement the UK should have with the EU,” Curtice says.
Well, we had a go. We asked people which of these three statements on customs after
Brexit they most agreed with. The results were:
It is very important to leave the customs union properly, so the UK can strike its own trade deals: 35%
It is very important to stay in the customs union, so firms can trade with the EU more easily: 24%
The best solution might involve some sort of compromise, perhaps along the lines of the customs partnership, because the alternative proposals are both flawed: 26%
We did not put names to the three options, but ‘leaving the customs union properly’ is the position associated with Tories like Boris Johnson, the foreign secretary, or Jacob Rees-Mogg, head of the 60-strong European Research Group. Staying in the customs union is the Labour party position. And a compromise seems to be what
Theresa May wants. She argues that the customs partnership, supposedly her favoured option, does involve leaving the customs union properly, but Brexiters don’t accept that, which is why we mentioned it in this context.
- The post-Brexit customs policy championed by Brexiters like Boris Johnson is most popular with voters, the poll suggests. A third of voters want a customs policy that prioritises leaving the customs union properly, while only a quarter of voters want to stay in a customs union, while another quarter favour a compromise. But you could also read the figures as showing that 50% of voters are opposed to a clean break with the customs union. Some 15% of respondents said they did not know.
Customs union polling
Extending the transition
The post-Brexit transition period is due to come to an end in December 2020 but there has been a lot of speculation that it will have to be extended. Damian Green, the former first secretary of state, became
the latest person to float this idea at the weekend. Downing Street insists this will not happen, although there have been
some hints that they could shift.
We told respondents there was talk of the transition being extended to allow new customs arrangements to be introduced and asked them if they would support or oppose this. Here are the results.
Polling on extending the transition.
- Nearly half of voters oppose extending the Brexit transition, the poll suggests. Some 43% of people said they were against this idea, even when it was suggested this might be necessary to allow time for new customs arrangements to be introduced. But 38% of people said they were in favour. Another 19% said they did not know.
As ICM’s
Alex Turk points out, opinion was polarised along political party and leave/remain lines.
While views are fairly evenly split, more of the British public oppose (43%) than support (38%) extending the Brexit transition period beyond 2020. These views are polarised along party and EU referendum lines: two-thirds (67%) of 2016 Leave voters and 3 in 5 (62%) of those intending to vote Conservative oppose extending the transition period, whereas three in five (59%) 2016 Remain voters and almost half (49%) of those intending to vote Labour support extending the transition period.
Voting intention
- The Conservatives retain a 3-point lead over Labour, the poll suggests. This is unchanged from the 3-point the Tories had in the Guardian/ICM poll two weeks ago.
Voting intention
The tables will go up on
the ICM website later today. I will post a link here when they are available.
ICM Unlimited interviewed a representative online sample of 2,050 adults aged 18+, between 11 and 13 May 2018. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.