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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

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  • Poll closed .
Abizzz said:
I don't disagree with you at all. I'm just saying the fear he describes is real and rational. It may very well be the ultimate reason why brexit is destined to fail. If brexit succeeds it will destroy the very thing that can make it succeed (the EU), hence there's no where good to go from here.
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I think Hammond is mixing two different things though. The rise of populism/nationalism mostly fuelled by fake news has nothing to do with whether Brexit fails or succeed.

Actually, this rise of nationalism/populism might be a bigger threat to global Britain then the EU itself as financial juggernauts like the US are pulling out of trade deals and blaming the liberal financial world as the reason why the US is not 'great anymore'. Which might explain why the Brexiters are so desperate to seal a trade deal with the very union they are so keen to leave. There's a nasty world out there which is getting nastier with the rise of nationalist leaders like Putin, Trump and Erdogan who care more about their political agenda rather then trade.
 
JPRouve said:
I feel that your mixing Brexit being a success and having a deal that gives the UK all the benefits of membership without counterpart, that's two different things and only the second one makes the EU useless.
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I do feel that brexit is only a success if it advantages the UK more than the former arrangement had done. I also think that such an arrangement would ultimately destroy the EU and hence become worthless over time (worse than the previous arrangement).

The UK government is the one equating making a success of brexit with making a success out of Britain. The UK can definitely become a success (whatever that means, lets settle on rich?) outside of the EU, I absolutely and wholeheartedly wish it to be, but it won't be because of brexit, if anything despite it. I also have absolutely no confidence in those who brought about brexit to contribute anything but idiocy to that future success.
 
Abizzz said:
I do feel that brexit is only a success if it advantages the UK more than the former arrangement it had. I also think that such an arrangement would ultimately destroy the EU and hence become worthless over time (worse than the previous arrangement).

The UK government is the one equating making a success of brexit with making a success out of Britain. The UK can definitely become a success (whatever that means, lets settle on rich?) outside of the EU, I absolutely and wholeheartedly wish it to be, but it won't be because of brexit, if anything despite it. I also have absolutely no confidence in those who brought about brexit to contribute anything but idiocy to that future success.
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I am not sure about that. Nationalism and common sense/trade rarely mix well together, which explains why Hitler was able to take Germany from all sides, why Mussolini entered a war despite knowing that Italy wasn't prepared for it, why Kim Jong Un is destroying his country's economy with his obsession for Nukes and why Putin is allowed to cripple the Russian economy etc. Time and time again we hear of Brexiters who are perfectly comfortable for their economy to tank if that means 'getting control'.

Its funny because nationalism expects others to go distance while they act as cnuts. Hitler was furious that the UK/France declared war against him, Putin think that the sanctions are unfair (while invading places like Crimea and Ukraine), Trump is angry about fake news despite insulting everybody and pulling out of trade deals and Brexit Britain is now calling the EU paranoid for not allowing the UK to have the cake and eat it. I am pretty sure that Salvini will also use the victim's card if he pushes Italy out of the EU only to be told that hordes of Italians will lose their rights to live/work in Europe if Italy leaves the EU.

Don't take me wrong same thing happens with the nationalists in my country who constantly complain about immigrants and EU laws especially regarding hunting but are more then happy with the benefits the EU brings to our economy.
 
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Abizzz said:
I do feel that brexit is only a success if it advantages the UK more than the former arrangement had done. I also think that such an arrangement would ultimately destroy the EU and hence become worthless over time (worse than the previous arrangement).

The UK government is the one equating making a success of brexit with making a success out of Britain. The UK can definitely become a success (whatever that means, lets settle on rich?) outside of the EU, I absolutely and wholeheartedly wish it to be, but it won't be because of brexit, if anything despite it. I also have absolutely no confidence in those who brought about brexit to contribute anything but idiocy to that future success.
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Going back to your previous point, you realize that fear doesn't play a role in what you are describing here, while it's obviously a great narrative that has been used by most populist politicians in the last decade, it seems that people equate the EU not doing something extremely stupid, in this instance giving a better deal to an outsider than an insider, as being afraid that members will leave, if the EU does something as nonsensical as that it doesn't deserve to exist in the first place.
 
JPRouve said:
Going back to your previous point, you realize that fear doesn't play a role in what you are describing here, while it's obviously a great narrative that has been used by most populist politicians in the last decade, it seems that people equate the EU not doing something extremely stupid, in this instance giving a better deal to an outsider than an insider, as being afraid that members will leave, if the EU does something as nonsensical as that it doesn't deserve to exist in the first place.
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Yeah, you're right.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Agree with all @devilish and @JPRouve said

Hammond's still on the cake and eat it trail. What he wants is a soft Brexit which is highly likely. But that means the 4 freedoms and paying in the pot.
The EU are not going to give in on this.
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Of course he is, he'd be stupid not to be. How far he gets is the subject of negotiation, he obviously won't get everything he wants but he might get some of it. If there's no 'giving in' by the EU at all then there will be a hard brexit and all that entails. I'm certainly not calling the result of negotiations, and I'm more than suspicious of anyone who claims they can. For one thing if May were to agree to the four freedoms and the same payments as you say then I think her government would fall, and PMs generally put clinging on to power as their first priority. Although if there were a general election the number of potential scenarios would rise again I suppose.
 
712 said:
Of course he is, he'd be stupid not to be. How far he gets is the subject of negotiation, he obviously won't get everything he wants but he might get some of it. If there's no 'giving in' by the EU at all then there will be a hard brexit and all that entails. I'm certainly not calling the result of negotiations, and I'm more than suspicious of anyone who claims they can. For one thing if May were to agree to the four freedoms and the same payments as you say then I think her government would fall, and PMs generally put clinging on to power as their first priority. Although if there were a general election the number of potential scenarios would rise again I suppose.
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What are the chances of him getting what he wants by calling them backward looking, bullies and paranoid? Especially considering that according to him the other side is hardly enthusiastic about a deal in the first place.
 
devilish said:
What are the chances of him getting what he wants if he starts calling the other side paranoid? Especially considering that according to him the other side is hardly enthusiastic about a deal in the first place.
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He seems unable to forget his domestic audience when his priority should be working his opposites in the EU, and I agree calling them paranoid is a stupid way of going about it. They are obviously concerned about further break up, but there's no negotiating advantage in highlighting that, especially with the exaggeration of terming it paranoid.
 
712 said:
Of course he is, he'd be stupid not to be. How far he gets is the subject of negotiation, he obviously won't get everything he wants but he might get some of it. If there's no 'giving in' by the EU at all then there will be a hard brexit and all that entails. I'm certainly not calling the result of negotiations, and I'm more than suspicious of anyone who claims they can. For one thing if May were to agree to the four freedoms and the same payments as you say then I think her government would fall, and PMs generally put clinging on to power as their first priority. Although if there were a general election the number of potential scenarios would rise again I suppose.
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Yes he's going to try to obtain the best deal he or the government can and details of negotiations such as how much the Uk will have to pay etc and this we can't foresee but the principle ones such as the 4 freedoms are not negotiable and the EU have stated this continuously since the beginning. It still appears that the government and some people in the Uk still think this is possible.

I think May will try and stretch this out as far as she can to near as 2022 . Maybe the government would fail but with Corbyn as her opponent she is much safer than she would normally be with a better opposition leader.

I also think the Uk government are overestimating how much the EU really want the UK to stay, as I've said before their best scenario would be for the Uk to pay and have no say under a soft Brexit. I think they also consider the Uk not stupid enough to drop off the cliff.
Over the next three months they'll be getting the UK to express clearly what they want but also to get the UK to legally sign up to what they agreed to, ie one of those being to keep the Irish border open which means member of the CU.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Yes he's going to try to obtain the best deal he or the government can and details of negotiations such as how much the Uk will have to pay etc and this we can't foresee but the principle ones such as the 4 freedoms are not negotiable and the EU have stated this continuously since the beginning. It still appears that the government and some people in the Uk still think this is possible.

I think May will try and stretch this out as far as she can to near as 2022 . Maybe the government would fail but with Corbyn as her opponent she is much safer than she would normally be with a better opposition leader.

I also think the Uk government are overestimating how much the EU really want the UK to stay, as I've said before their best scenario would be for the Uk to pay and have no say under a soft Brexit. I think they also consider the Uk not stupid enough to drop off the cliff.
Over the next three months they'll be getting the UK to express clearly what they want but also to get the UK to legally sign up to what they agreed to, ie one of those being to keep the Irish border open which means member of the CU.
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I agree with all that except the ending, if all of it is right then over the cliff we go! To avoid confusion I'm not advocating that, I'm just pointing out the possibility.

An honest question for anyone, what would be the obstacles to the UK remaining a CU member, what conditions might the other members lay down for that?
 
712 said:
I agree with all that except the ending, if all of it is right then over the cliff we go! To avoid confusion I'm not advocating that, I'm just pointing out the possibility.

An honest question for anyone, what would be the obstacles to the UK remaining a CU member, what conditions might the other members lay down for that?
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I don't really know what answer to give other than a custom union means that all members are under the same jurisdiction and follows the same basic rules. There is nothing special about it.
 
JPRouve said:
I don't really know what answer to give other than a custom union means that all members are under the same jurisdiction and follows the same basic rules. There is nothing special about it.
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Fair enough. I was just thinking of Turkey, they're in the Customs Union without any four freedoms. Apart from agricultural products, which the EU want to sell to the UK anyway, so it could be 100% for us.
 
712 said:
I agree with all that except the ending, if all of it is right then over the cliff we go! To avoid confusion I'm not advocating that, I'm just pointing out the possibility.

An honest question for anyone, what would be the obstacles to the UK remaining a CU member, what conditions might the other members lay down for that?
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Yes it is a possibility.

The EU want to know what the UK wants because basically the UK leaves the Custom's Union when they leave the EU in less than 15 month's time. So really they have to renegotiate another Custom's Union agreement. Turkey have a different Custom's Union agreement to the EU members.
Instead of having wasted all this time since the referendum posturing and procrastinating the UK government should have got on with it. Tell the EU what they want but stop the ridiculous cake and eat it stance, then they might get somewhere.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Yes it is a possibility.

The EU want to know what the UK wants because basically the UK leaves the Custom's Union when they leave the EU in less than 15 month's time. So really they have to renegotiate another Custom's Union agreement. Turkey have a different Custom's Union agreement to the EU members.
Instead of having wasted all this time since the referendum posturing and procrastinating the UK government should have got on with it. Tell the EU what they want but stop the ridiculous cake and eat it stance, then they might get somewhere.
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Negotiating an associate member status of the European Customs Union looks a good option to me. It doesn't seem to have stopped Turkey negotiating separate agreements with other non-member states either.
 
712 said:
Negotiating an associate member status of the European Customs Union looks a good option to me. It doesn't seem to have stopped Turkey negotiating separate agreements with other non-member states either.
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It's a partial custom's union but they have common external tariffs which may not please BoJo. Also doesn't address the Uk's biggest problem, finance and services.

Also with the Turkey type agreement it doesn't solve the border checks problem standards compliance and especially the Irish border.
 
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Paul the Wolf said:
It's a partial custom's union but they have common external tariffs which may not please BoJo. Also doesn't address the Uk's biggest problem, finance and services.
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In the end, it always comes back to the type of relationship that the UK wants in the future and what they are willing to give. The EU can't reasonably decide what the UK will have and what they will give without the will and consent of the latters. That's basically what is said in the article provided by Devilish.
 








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:lol:
 
Paul the Wolf said:
It's a partial custom's union but they have common external tariffs which may not please BoJo. Also doesn't address the Uk's biggest problem, finance and services.
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Yeah, I get the damage losing access for finance would do, hopefully as the rest would be to the EUs advantage there might be some room to find agreement on that too. If not it's austerity mark two, super-austerity. We could have some sort of annual celebration with Cameron replacing Guy Fawkes.
 
JPRouve said:
In the end, it always comes back to the type of relationship that the UK wants in the future and what they are willing to give. The EU can't reasonably decide what the UK will have and what they will give without the will and consent of the latters. That's basically what is said in the article provided by Devilish.
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The question is what does the Uk government want that is a sensible proposition, nobody seems to know and that includes the Uk government itself, parts of which all want different things.
 
712 said:
Yeah, I get the damage losing access for finance would do, hopefully as the rest would be to the EUs advantage there might be some room to find agreement on that too. If not it's austerity mark two, super-austerity. We could have some sort of annual celebration with Cameron replacing Guy Fawkes.
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I edited my post about the border problems which this does type of agreement does not solve, the Turkey agreement seems only a slight improvement on WTO terms with a view that Turkey may join the EU at some point (probably in the very distant future).
Don't see this as something that would please the UK or the EU.
 
712 said:
Yeah, I get the damage losing access for finance would do, hopefully as the rest would be to the EUs advantage there might be some room to find agreement on that too. If not it's austerity mark two, super-austerity. We could have some sort of annual celebration with Cameron replacing Guy Fawkes.
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There is no agreement to find on that. To make it clear, countries like France or Germany don't really care about that we have enough ways to make money to let you have that one, now the problem is that it's still worth a lot of money, that money is made on the back of European citizens and companies, so the counterpart is that you need to share a part of the wealth created by that industry one of the price is and will mostly likely always be to take a part of the population from countries like Romania, Poland or Bulgaria and give them jobs if you have jobs for them. That reality isn't always accepted.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
I edited my post about the border problems which this does type of agreement does not solve, the Turkey agreement seems only a slight improvement on WTO terms with a view that Turkey may join the EU at some point (probably in the very distant future).
Don't see this as something that would please the UK or the EU.
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Ah right, I thought checks, standards and compliance was what it was about, thanks for that.
 
The EU aren't paranoid, they just are being smart. Allowing too many concessions will damage the EU more then telling us to sod off.

It's like someone unsubscribing from Premium Netflix, but wanting the same access to 4k and multi screens while creating their own terms of service and paying £2.99 per month. Everyone would want the same deal.
 
Drainy said:
The EU aren't paranoid, they just are being smart. Allowing too many concessions will damage the EU more then telling us to sod off.

It's like someone unsubscribing from Premium Netflix, but wanting the same access to 4k and multi screens while creating their own terms of service and paying £2.99 per month. Everyone would want the same deal.
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Yes but when we are free from Netflix we are free to negotiate out own bespoke deal with Netflix Amazon hbo time Warner Disney etc etc or something.. . Rule Britannia and bring back the glory days of empire and slave trading or some other such claptrap
 
Kentonio said:
Apparently a commitment to not hold another referendum on it for a substantial amount of time. Which seems fair enough.
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Is that all? Can't help but feel there will be more of a price to pay if we did go back on the decision.

Most likely, we'll have a parties promising a referendum to re-enter the EU during the 2020s.
 
horsechoker said:
Is that all? Can't help but feel there will be more of a price to pay if we did go back on the decision.

Most likely, we'll have a parties promising a referendum to re-enter the EU during the 2020s.
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What worries me is I doubt we could persuade all the 27 to agree to it after we left. Although our payments aren't vital to the EU, removing them still hurt the overall project and us leaving causes lots of turmoil. Why would they want to open themselves up to more UK intransigence and hassle in future?
 
Kentonio said:
What worries me is I doubt we could persuade all the 27 to agree to it after we left. Although our payments aren't vital to the EU, removing them still hurt the overall project and us leaving causes lots of turmoil. Why would they want to open themselves up to more UK intransigence and hassle in future?
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That's why a faux brexit is the only real option. Doesn't feck over the EU nations that want us around, and doesn't piss off the ones that might veto our reentry. Let little Britain have it's little racist project and go back in when the boomers die.
 
Kentonio said:
What worries me is I doubt we could persuade all the 27 to agree to it after we left. Although our payments aren't vital to the EU, removing them still hurt the overall project and us leaving causes lots of turmoil. Why would they want to open themselves up to more UK intransigence and hassle in future?
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I see us being readmitted but having to make more concessions, which may include giving up the pound amongst, not holding another referendum for a great amount of time and many other things. I think the EU would accept Britain on a tight leash.
 
horsechoker said:
I see us being readmitted but having to make more concessions, which may include giving up the pound amongst, not holding another referendum for a great amount of time and many other things. I think the EU would accept Britain on a tight leash.
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The public would only agree to the Euro if we were in a really dire economic recession though. Lots of pain before we'd reach that point.
 
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-42707383

Brexit: Britons take EU rights bid to Dutch court

Five UK nationals are going to court in the Netherlands in a campaign to keep their EU citizenship after Brexit.

They want a Dutch judge to press the European Court of Justice (ECJ) to clarify their rights.

The ECJ, if it decides to make a ruling, could guarantee such rights as freedom of movement after the UK leaves the European Union.

An ECJ decision would affect all British nationals living in the European Union.

The European court could rule that all member states must guarantee the rights of Brits in the respective states where they reside - under European law.

About 85,000 British nationals live in the Netherlands.

The interim deal thrashed out between the UK and Brussels in December does outline some of the rights British citizens in Europe will keep after Brexit, such as the ability to live and work on the continent.

But some vital questions, like free movement, still swirl around.

'We've been forgotten'
Some of the group of five say they have been disheartened by the confusion and speculation about what their life will be like after Brexit.

"Just because the UK voted to leave, it shouldn't be able to force citizens to give up their rights," says Stephen Huyton, one of the Brits taking the court action on Wednesday.

The Netherlands does not currently allow foreigners to have dual nationality, in most cases.
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