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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


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They thought the EU will crumble into pieces the day Brexit happened or at least it will bend over backwards and give the UK whatever it wanted. That seems more unlikely every passing day. No wonder why these talks of a second referendum are gaining momentum. If they lose then they will come out as beacons of democracy and 'reluctantly' withdraw their article 50 letter. If they win, well, no one can really blame them for their mess can they?

I hope the EU won't accept it. We can't have countries playing games like that.

The worst thing that happened to Farage was that Brexit won the referendum. He became irrelevant overnight.
In 15 months time he won't be an MEP and will lose his salary and won't get his pension until 9 years after that.

There's a high chance that the UK will be an "associate" member of the EU after 29th March 2019 so the EU will be quite happy they'll be paying into the pot but not having a say. Sounds a perfect scenario for the EU , they probably wouldn't accept a withdrawal of A50.
 
Most people weren't frothing at the mouth when it came to the passport affair - just recognising the stupidity of spending something silly like £500m of changing the colour of something.

The cover was always going to have to be modified as it has European Union written on it, and the colour is simple re-branding. Are you claiming that blue passports are 500m more expensive to produce than red ones?
 
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...rting-rights-financial-services-a8152941.html

I wonder which the conservatives will choose, the banks or stopping payments to the EU?

Random person said:
This was always going to be the case which is why, even if you support the fundamentals of "tuk r cuntry bak", it's still bloody stupid to vote leave.

We won't get the money back, we will pay for as close to tariff free access as poss. Nor will the ECJ stop being the supreme court, because someone needs to mediate in cross jurisdictional disputes, nor will we stop having to meet EU regulation, because if you want to sell on the EU market, it has to meet their standards and, immigration will not be stopped either because regardless of all the frothy shite, it is economically beneficial.

This was clear from day one. By voting out, no one gets what they want, and handful of disaster capitalists are going to make a killing, while the Tories sell your rights and protections down the river.
 
Independent impact assessment commissioned by London Mayor Sadiq Khan
I may have misunderstood, but I thought Remainers were all for a second referendum? I know Farage isn't exactly their favourite, but I still expected to come on here and find it full of posts saying 'Bring it on Nigel, let's have another one'. @devilish seems particularly against the idea.
 
I may have misunderstood, but I thought Remainers were all for a second referendum? I know Farage isn't exactly their favourite, but I still expected to come on here and find it full of posts saying 'Bring it on Nigel, let's have another one'. @devilish seems particularly against the idea.
I'd rather have a referendum on the final deal since it's bound to be unpalatable and more likely to get people to want to cancel Brexit.
 
I'd rather have a referendum on the final deal since it's bound to be unpalatable and more likely to get people to want to cancel Brexit.

I see that, but aren't you worried it would be too late then? The problem would be what the referendum were about 'do you accept the terms or would you prefer an alternative although we don't actually know what that might be because it depends on what the EU says if you turn it down?
 
I may have misunderstood, but I thought Remainers were all for a second referendum? I know Farage isn't exactly their favourite, but I still expected to come on here and find it full of posts saying 'Bring it on Nigel, let's have another one'. @devilish seems particularly against the idea.

Firstly a new referendum will be too late to change anything even if it were pro remain and secondly Farage has no power
 
I see that, but aren't you worried it would be too late then? The problem would be what the referendum were about 'do you accept the terms or would you prefer an alternative although we don't actually know what that might be because it depends on what the EU says if you turn it down?
I think there's enough remainers in parliament where the option to cancel article 50 would be on the poll. If people still want to leave following the agreement then clearly the public won't change it's mind.
 
I may have misunderstood, but I thought Remainers were all for a second referendum? I know Farage isn't exactly their favourite, but I still expected to come on here and find it full of posts saying 'Bring it on Nigel, let's have another one'. @devilish seems particularly against the idea.

Farage and his ilk aren't remainers so I didn't see it from a Remainer POV. Which makes me wonder why would he want that? The only thing I can think off is that plan A (if there was ever a plan in the first place), had backfired spectacularly, things aren't going well during the negotiations at all and the UK will end up worse off....I mean really worse off. Could they be afraid that the same mob that duped will turn up with pitchforks and torches? Considering that the UK is dead set to dilute the human rights act then maybe the good old hanged drawn and quartered law might be re-introduced for those politicians/journalists/paper owners who mislead the people to vote Brexit. That's something I would be happy to see voted in.

And I am not against the UK being part of the EU. If the UK wishes to re-enter the EU then by all means they should re-apply, accept the conditions given to new members and return to the fold. What I am against is for any country to activate article 50 only to revoke it later on. That brings unnecessary instability to Europe and sets a very bad precedent.
 
I don't think Farage really wants a second referendum - he just knows he's pretty much done for politically and is making brash "come on and have it then!" type statements while in the knowledge they'll attract attention even though he holds no political power whatsoever and wouldn't be in a position to implement any such vote.
 
I'd rather have a referendum on the final deal since it's bound to be unpalatable and more likely to get people to want to cancel Brexit.

While I do believe that the UK's place is in the EU and from a personal point of view I am better off that way, I don't think that the UK should be allowed to cancel Brexit at their own leisure not without suffering consequences. Brexit brought unnecessary turbulence into Europe and if the UK can get away with it then rest assured others would follow whenever things start not going their way.

If the UK wishes to return to the fold then they should re-apply as new members and accept the deal given to those members. The EU might fast track their membership as a sign of good will but that should be all.
 
Farage and his ilk aren't remainers so I didn't see it from a Remainer POV. Which makes me wonder why would he want that? The only thing I can think off is that plan A (if there was ever a plan in the first place), had backfired spectacularly, things aren't going well during the negotiations at all and the UK will end up worse off....I mean really worse off. Could they be afraid that the same mob that duped will turn up with pitchforks and torches? Considering that the UK is dead set to dilute the human rights act then maybe the good old hanged drawn and quartered law might be re-introduced for those politicians/journalists/paper owners who mislead the people to vote Brexit. That's something I would be happy to see voted in.

And I am not against the UK being part of the EU. If the UK wishes to re-enter the EU then by all means they should re-apply, accept the conditions given to new members and return to the fold. What I am against is for any country to activate article 50 only to revoke it later on. That brings unnecessary instability to Europe and sets a very bad precedent.

Agreed, we are vindictive, we want the UK to leave, invoke article 49. And then take the Euro, some migrants and Juncker.:D
 
I don't think Farage really wants a second referendum - he just knows he's pretty much done for politically and is making brash "come on and have it then!" type statements while in the knowledge they'll attract attention even though he holds no political power whatsoever and wouldn't be in a position to implement any such vote.
Very much so.

I definitely want one though.
 
I would be interested to see who would be the face of the remain campaign this time around.

In the case of any hypothetical vote it'd be intriguing. Tory Remainers like May have now firmly jumped behind the Brexit bandwagon to the point where backing Remain would seem ridiculous. Even though people would also be able to point out they don't really believe in Brexit either. Labour are similar, but to a lesser extent - Corbyn's position on Brexit is deliberately muddled because he knows committing to a soft Brexit will alienate some Labour voters, but that ending mass movement and cutting ties with the single market will alienate a lot of their core vote. Plus he's a natural Eurosceptic anyway. No other Labour figures at the moment though would really have the profile to front such a campaign. Sadiq Khan's the only one I can think of who's both high in profile and who has enough credibility behind him.

Aside from that you've got the Lib Dems and the SNP. Clegg's out now, Cable isn't a big enough figure, and irrespective of how strong a political figure Stugeon may be they wouldn't have her leading a UK-wide campaign.
 
Agreed, we are vindictive, we want the UK to leave, invoke article 49. And then take the Euro, some migrants and Juncker.:D

Its not revenge. Its protecting the integrity of the single market. Can you imagine if the likes of Orban learns that one can invoke article 50 and still get away with it?
 
I don't care what type of 2nd referendum we have. Watching May and Corbyn squirm would be enough for me no matter what happened
 
If the final deal is rejected by the house of commons and Lords (which is likely) a second referendum is the only solution. Who'd win? Probably leave again by a larger margin.
The problem we'd have then is that all the current negotiating going on now would be a complete waste of time. We'd crash out of the EU with no deal.
 
Hammond is calling the EU paranoid now which is quite ironic considering that the EU isn't the one whose obsessed to have a trade deal signed ASAP. If other countries are so enthusiastic about signing a trade deal with the UK then surely the UK can afford to stop pesterjng the EU for a trade deal and respect (or decline) the terms offered right? After all Brexit means Brexit and a no deal is better then a bad deal.

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...id-that-other-nations-will-leave-after-brexit
 
Hammond is calling the EU paranoid now which is quite ironic considering that the EU isn't the one whose obsessed to have a trade deal signed ASAP. If other countries are so enthusiastic about signing a trade deal with the UK then surely the UK can afford to stop pesterjng the EU for a trade deal and respect (or decline) the terms offered right? After all Brexit means Brexit and a no deal is better then a bad deal.

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...id-that-other-nations-will-leave-after-brexit

He isn't wrong though, even if it isn't the smartest choice of words that fear does exist. The leading brexiteers in the government do want as many of the benefits as they can get out of their future relationship with the EU while minimizing the contributions... If they're successful at it any right minded european government would at least have to consider copying that. The fear is real and justifiable. The only problem for Hammond is that telling someone to stop fearing something doesn't work, and that the UK fuel that fear pretty much every time any cabinet member opens his mouth.
 
Hammond is calling the EU paranoid now which is quite ironic considering that the EU isn't the one whose obsessed to have a trade deal signed ASAP. If other countries are so enthusiastic about signing a trade deal with the UK then surely the UK can afford to stop pesterjng the EU for a trade deal and respect (or decline) the terms offered right? After all Brexit means Brexit and a no deal is better then a bad deal.

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...id-that-other-nations-will-leave-after-brexit

I agree with Abizzz, EU big-wigs are worried about further breakup, they've said it themselves and I don't blame them; and I'd add that as for as wanting a trade deal ASAP, every time I hear someone stressing the timetable or saying tick tock it's Barnier, and rightly so.

You're losing it devilish, take a break for a bit.
 
He isn't wrong though, even if it isn't the smartest choice of words that fear does exist. The leading brexiteers in the government do want as many of the benefits as they can get out of their future relationship with the EU while minimizing the contributions... If they're successful at it any right minded european government would at least have to consider copying that. The fear is real and justifiable. The only problem for Hammond is that telling someone to stop fearing something doesn't work, and that the UK fuel that fear pretty much every time any cabinet member opens his mouth.

The fear isn't that the UK leaves or that someone else leaves, the fear is that someone that doesn't want to leave disturb the EU with threats of leaving. That's why the art.50 triggering has to be definitive in itself but also the futrure deal has to be far from EU membership. Basically if you want out leave, if you want in stay but don't waste people's time with nonsense like "we are in but out".
 
He isn't wrong though, even if it isn't the smartest choice of words that fear does exist. The leading brexiteers in the government do want as many of the benefits as they can get out of their future relationship with the EU while minimizing the contributions... If they're successful at it any right minded european government would at least have to consider copying that. The fear is real and justifiable. The only problem for Hammond is that telling someone to stop fearing something doesn't work, and that the UK fuel that fear pretty much every time any cabinet member opens his mouth.

In my opinion he's mixing two things that has nothing to do with one another ie the rise of populism and the importance the UK has on Europe. The former is a concern which has an impact not only in Europe but in the UK and the US as well. We've seen the rise of Trump, the rise of fake news some of whom is being fuelled by Russia, Brexit, the rise of the radical right, separatists (Catalans, Scotland with the SNP etc). That is of course concerning especially in a continent were nationalism had brought so much misery and death.

The other is a different argument altogether. Brexit might be a big issue in the UK but it barely makes it on European papers anymore. Very few people on the mainland care if the UK crashes out without a trade deal and this concern is echoed by Hammond himself who complained that the EU seem lacking the enthusiasm to make a trade deal with the UK. The EU might be accused of apathy or rigidity in tackling the issue (which is fair enough considering whose holding the shortest side of the stick) not paranoia.

He isn't wrong though, even if it isn't the smartest choice of words that fear does exist. The leading brexiteers in the government do want as many of the benefits as they can get out of their future relationship with the EU while minimizing the contributions... If they're successful at it any right minded european government would at least have to consider copying that. The fear is real and justifiable. The only problem for Hammond is that telling someone to stop fearing something doesn't work, and that the UK fuel that fear pretty much every time any cabinet member opens his mouth.

That's the thing, the UK won't get the benefits unless its hugely beneficial for the EU to do so and there's nothing the UK can do about that. The UK needs the EU far more then the EU needs the UK and the EU can live without the UK far better then the UK can live without the very continent it makes part of. That's why the UK government keeps backtracking at every turn.

As said, if you really want to know what politicians want then ignore the fluff and focus on their actions. Whose constantly doing the running? The EU or the UK? As Hammond clearly stated the EU barely talks about trade deals with the UK. Which is bad news considering how desperate the UK seems to be for one.
 
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The fear isn't that the UK leaves or that someone else leaves, the fear is that someone that doesn't want to leave disturb the EU with threats of leaving. That's why the art.50 triggering has to be definitive in itself but also the futrure deal has to be far from EU membership. Basically if you want out leave, if you want in stay but don't waste people's time with nonsense like "we are in but out".
That's an additional concern playing into the same tune.
I agree with Abizzz, EU big-wigs are worried about further breakup, they've said it themselves and I don't blame them; and I'd add that as for as wanting a trade deal ASAP, every time I hear someone stressing the timetable or saying tick tock it's Barnier, and rightly so.
To me that is more a statement of fact and concern than a sign of anxiety, it is to counter the, frankly, delusional approach the likes of Boris and Davis have taken occasionally (easiest deal in history; the wine, cheese and cars argument, etc.).
In my opinion he's mixing two things that has nothing to do with one another ie the rise of populism and the importance the UK has on Europe. The former is a concern which has an impact not only in Europe but in the UK and the US as well. We've seen the rise of Trump, the rise of fake news someof whom is being fuelled by Russia, Brexit, the rise of the radical right, separatists (Catalans, Scotland with the SNP etc). That is of course concerning.

The other is a different argument altogether. Brexit might be a big issue in the UK but it barely makes it on European papers anymore. Very few people on the mainland care if the UK crashes out without a trade deal. I've been involved with politicians long enough to know that if you really want to know what politicians think then you'll study their actions (not their words). Its not the EU whose constantly sending politicians in the UK for a trade deal but the UK.



That's the thing, they won't get the benefits and there's nothing the UK can do about that. The UK needs the EU far more then the EU needs the UK and the EU can live without the UK far better then the UK can live without the very continent it makes part of. That's why the UK government keeps backracking at every turn.

As said, if you really want to know what politicians want then ignore their words and focus on their actions. Whose constantly doing the running? The EU or the UK? As Hammond clearly stated the EU is not the ones constantly begging for a trade deal.

I don't disagree with you at all. I'm just saying the fear he describes is real and rational. It may very well be the ultimate reason why brexit is destined to fail. If brexit succeeds it will destroy the very thing that can make it succeed (the EU), hence there's no where good to go from here.
 
To add to what @devilish posted. The main EU members value the UK and would prefer to see them stay, that part isn't even debatable, the problem is that the EU isn't willing to play the game that Cameron initiated, not even for the UK who was a big member and big contributor.
 
I don't disagree with you at all. I'm just saying the fear he describes is real and rational. It may very well be the ultimate reason why brexit is destined to fail. If brexit succeeds it will destroy the very thing that can make it succeed (the EU), hence there's no where good to go from here.

I feel that your mixing Brexit being a success and having a deal that gives the UK all the benefits of membership without counterpart, that's two different things and only the second one makes the EU useless.