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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

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The Brexit campaign reminds me of a middle aged man who had been in a relationship for quite some time. His wife is pregnant and the couple had been arguing a lot lately because she expects him to do more in the house.

One fine day, two mates (lets call them Paul and Stanley) takes him to a top model party which is filled with beautiful young ladies in their early 20s. Stanley starts telling him stories he read about them. Some wouldn’t mind being involved in threesomes while others just want to settle down with a rich guy and they wouldn’t care whom their bf bangs as long as he eventually come home. All these girls are financially independent, they earn way more than the middle aged guy which means that they will probably afford him not working. This sea of opportunity is available to him but only if he becomes single.

Paul on the other hand counters to that by saying that these girls are probably out of his league. if the guy leaves his wife for them then she will probably not wantto have anything to do with him and will use every leverage against him to take him to the cleaners. Not to forget that his reputation will be ruined after that and people will be extra careful when dealing with him.

Stanley dismisses Paul concerns by saying that this is all project fear and there's plenty of fuel left in their friend's tank to get what he wants. He assures him that considering his wife’s situation there’s a big possibility that he could seal a new bold and mutually beneficial relationship with her where she basically pay all the mortgage they both agreed to pay and still allow him to sleep with her in exchange of him visiting her every now and then. Being a single mother can be lonely at times and loneliness is a cruel thing. Considering all the top models around him to keep him busy she will need him more then he needs her right? All he has to do is to reassure her that he’s leaving her not her bedroom. If she can find a cheap gym, then he might even pay for her gym subscription because its within his interest to have a fit courtesan to sleep with every now and then.

This was written tongue in cheek and of course the names are purely co-incidential. Having said that if this guy is full of himself and pretty frustrated with his wife then god knows what he will choose.
 
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The Outsider said:
Of course we might argue that has already been paid for the last 40 years by our payments to the EU.
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Spot on! there is lots of talk about how much Britain will owe the EU, commitment for the future etc., but what about all the British overpayments to the EU, before the rebate?
Giving Britain a rebate on future payments was an acknowledgement that we had been paying over the odds for years, we were never compensated for these overpayments, the rebates were forward looking and occurred after we had 'shelled out', not retrospective.
Hope Davis draws this to Barnier's attention... to look forward you must first look back!
 
I Believe said:
Spot on! there is lots of talk about how much Britain will owe the EU, commitment for the future etc., but what about all the British overpayments to the EU, before the rebate?
Giving Britain a rebate on future payments was an acknowledgement that we had been paying over the odds for years, we were never compensated for these overpayments, the rebates were forward looking and occurred after we had 'shelled out', not retrospective.
Hope Davis draws this to Barnier's attention... to look forward you must first look back!
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What happens if the EU stop negotiations after that and use its veto as an WTO member to nuke any attempt from the UK part to get a decent WTO's deal? I am not saying that this would happen. All I am saying is that the EU still has that option in hand.
 
devilish said:
If that had to happen then it would sign the end of the EU
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The light bulb has just come on... the penny has dropped Devilish.. you got there eventually.

Not since the days of the 'common market' has the now named EU been about trade, its about politics, always has been, a United States of Europe or a greater Germany, (probably the former) was the goal. Trade is/was, at best incidental, at least 'the bait' to bringing countries on board, in order to force the outcome.

Britain's compliance with all of this was as much to do with our own internal politics, as any 'idealistic Euroland' dream.

Once the eastern European states were prised away from Russia, the way was clear. Then woe upon woe, those uppity Brits went and refused to join the Euro.. my god what was Blair thinking letting his Chancellor have his own way? Not many people (I know) would cheer for Gordon Brown, but this was his finest hour (not the banking crisis) by preventing Blair doing away with the Pound (Sterling), he laid the foundations for Brexit... an idea whose time has now come!

Sadly for remainers, although Cameron will be blamed for the referendum, he in fact gave the EU one last chance to get its teeth into Britain for good, but Mr Junker, who couldn't forgive Cameron for voting against his appointment, wanted his pound of flesh in revenge and sent Cameron back to Westminster with a virtually empty bag of 'concessions' and the rest as they say, is history.

Pleased you have seen the light!
 
I Believe said:
The light bulb has just come on... the penny has dropped Devilish.. you got there eventually.

Not since the days of the 'common market' has the now named EU been about trade, its about politics, always has been, a United States of Europe or a greater Germany, (probably the former) was the goal. Trade is/was, at best incidental, at least 'the bait' to bringing countries on board, in order to force the outcome.

Britain's compliance with all of this was as much to do with our own internal politics, as any 'idealistic Euroland' dream.

Once the eastern European states were prised away from Russia, the way was clear. Then woe upon woe, those uppity Brits went and refused to join the Euro.. my god what was Blair thinking letting his Chancellor have his own way? Not many people (I know) would cheer for Gordon Brown, but this was his finest hour (not the banking crisis) by preventing Blair doing away with the Pound (Sterling), he laid the foundations for Brexit... an idea whose time has now come!

Sadly for remainers, although Cameron will be blamed for the referendum, he in fact gave the EU one last chance to get its teeth into Britain for good, but Mr Junker, who couldn't forgive Cameron for voting against his appointment, wanted his pound of flesh in revenge and sent Cameron back to Westminster with a virtually empty bag of 'concessions' and the rest as they say, is history.

Pleased you have seen the light!
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Trade and politics work hand in hand. That's pretty obvious. More unrestricted access to someone's market means more overheads to ensure that there's a level playing field.For example India (whose not in the EU) had already stated that it will be very hard for the UK to get a trade deal (trade) unless its relaxes its visa process for its citizens (politics). Trump (ie a politician) wants to revamp NAFTA (ie a trade deal). When CETA (ie trade deal) was going nowhere, Justin trudeau's intervention was needed to kickstart everything.

In the past European countries were able to circumvent to that by invading other countries and take whatever they want on their own terms. That's why a trading nation like the UK found itself head of the biggest empire ever. Things are a teeny weeny different now and there's more of a give and take situation with the smaller fish giving more then the bigger fish will. The UK is a rich market but it is small when compared to the EU and the US.
 
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I Believe said:
What importance?... our 'importance' on the World scene finished with our humiliation at Suez in the early 1950's.. you need to keep up my friend
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I strongly disagree. The UK might not be the world policeman anymore but as an EU member it had quite an important role as a bridge between the US and Europe. As an EU member it made sure to preserve its independence and not get sucked up too much in US politics (which has the tendency of first using and then discard any allies it doesn't need anymore).
As an ally to the US, it pushed the US agenda which included weakening any attempt of a further integration which is of course against US interest. This 'best of two worlds' scenario contributed greatly to the UK's economy. Now that leverage is gone.

The EU itself is a major player in the financial world and might become a military power in the future. No wonder why competition (Russia and the US) are quite hostile to it.
 
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I Believe said:
A 'hard Brexit'..!
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What I had just described goes way beyond to a hard brexit. No one, not even Trump had dared to cut ties between the US and the very continent they make part off. In fact, he backpaddled furiously regarding his threat on NAFTA

The one whose close to that is Kim Jong Rocket man. There again, North Korea still has got decent ties with China who happens to be the major player in that part of world.
 
devilish said:
The UK might not be the world policeman anymore but as an EU member it had quite an important role as a bridge between the US and Europe.
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In the beginning maybe that was true, in the 'common market' era, that was De Gaulle's fear of USA back door intrusion into the CM via Britain and why he opposed our membership so vehemently for so long.

However since then, right up to Trump's ascendance, the first port of call for any US President was Germany, especially after the Berlin wall came down and Germany was unified.

Oh, its true we British (politicians at least) kid ourselves we are best mates with the USA and it's true we go along with everything they say, ask Tony Blair? The last British Prime Minister to say a major 'no' to the USA (over the level of our involvement in Vietnam) was Harold Wilson, he got short shift after that, remember he resigned rather unexpectedly..?

We have a role to play on the world stage, but it has nothing to do with being a member of the EU, partly its to do with our permanent membership of the UN Security Council, it seems like Mr Junker wanted Britain and France to stand down from the Council in favour of an EU representative... it's not known what the French reply was?

This 'World stage' posturing by British politicians (whether in favour or not with Brexit) is exactly that 'posturing', we pull strings under the counter always have done and if we want to avoid any more disasters like Iraq, we will build up this side of our 'political presence' and security, outside the EU!
 
I Believe said:
In the beginning maybe that was true, in the 'common market' era, that was De Gaulle's fear of USA back door intrusion into the CM via Britain and why he opposed our membership so vehemently for so long.

However since then, right up to Trump's ascendance, the first port of call for any US President was Germany, especially after the Berlin wall came down and Germany was unified.

Oh, its true we British (politicians at least) kid ourselves we are best mates with the USA and it's true we go along with everything they say, ask Tony Blair? The last British Prime Minister to say a major 'no' to the USA (over the level of our involvement in Vietnam) was Harold Wilson, he got short shift after that, remember he resigned rather unexpectedly..?

We have a role to play on the world stage, but it has nothing to do with being a member of the EU, partly its to do with our permanent membership of the UN Security Council, it seems like Mr Junker wanted Britain and France to stand down from the Council in favour of an EU representative... it's not known what the French reply was?

This 'World stage' posturing by British politicians (whether in favour or not with Brexit) is exactly that 'posturing', we pull strings under the counter always have done and if we want to avoid any more disasters like Iraq, we will build up this side of our 'political presence' and security, outside the EU!
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I very strongly disagree on that. The UK has always been the US no 1 ally in Europe, the first to get involved in most US wars even when they were plainly bonkers (ex Iraq). It also acted as the main opposition to everything that was against US interest including the EU army and further integration. No wonder why Obama begged the UK to stay in Europe. That leverage is gone.

If hard brexit occur with no transitional deal whatsoever, then the UK will be desperate for a good trade deal with the US. Which makes me wonder. What can the UK offer to the US that the latter can't live without?
 
The Outsider said:
If we had that power I find it unbelievable the Remain side did not use that in their arguments as I never recall hearing it.
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It was said on here dozens of times but we couldn't influence the vote outside the Caf and it was supposed to be project fear or something equally ridiculous. Another one of those facts Brexiters don't like.
 
devilish said:
If hard brexit occur with no transitional deal whatsoever, then the UK will be desperate for a good trade deal with the US.
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Then we find out how 'special' the 'special relationship' really is?

Another element of 'project fear' this is, lets give it a rest shall we? If we in Britain have the products and services the USA want (including them trading with us) then we will get it sorted on an individual product or service basis, or on an overall trade deal. It really isn't that complicated!
 
I Believe said:
Then we find out how 'special' the 'special relationship' really is?

Another element of 'project fear' this is, lets give it a rest shall we? If we in Britain have the products and services the USA want (including them trading with us) then we will get it sorted on an individual product or service basis, or on an overall trade deal. It really isn't that complicated!
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Call it whatever you want but the US has some of the most shrewd and tough negotiators in the world. Regarding 'special relationships' you can always ask the Republic of Vietnam, the kurds and Saddam Hussein about how loyal the US can be towards allies whom they don't really need anymore.

TBH I think its possible for the UK to get Brexit AND avoid a desperate cliff edge. The UK can settle the scores with the EU which in turn would probably give its consent to a long transitional deal. The UK will then have the time needed to test the waters in terms of trade deals + the WTO. If things don't go according to their expectation then it can always try and join EFTA or have an EU referendum.

I think that's the wise way to go although it will cost the UK alot of £££ + some politicians will have to kiss their political career goodbye. No wonder why the likes of Boris (who will be affected greatly by the latter) is so against it.
 
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I Believe said:
Then we find out how 'special' the 'special relationship' really is?

Another element of 'project fear' this is, lets give it a rest shall we? If we in Britain have the products and services the USA want (including them trading with us) then we will get it sorted on an individual product or service basis, or on an overall trade deal. It really isn't that complicated!
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And if we dont?
 
devilish said:
Regarding 'special relationships' you can always ask the Republic of Vietnam, the kurds and Saddam Hussein about how loyal the US can be towards allies whom they don't really need anymore.
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I take your point, but with all due respect, given the size of Britain's economy, given that we sit on the UN Security Council (very handy for the USA to have a pal there, especially when China's playing up about sanctions on N Korea!), given that our GCHQ is (probably) the central listening post for most USA intelligence monitoring in the northern hemisphere, given that Donald has Scots Mother (and he owns a lot of 'stuff' in Scotland), given there are lots of other security (tapping on the side of my nose at this point) which we cannot discuss here, given all that, our 'special relationship will be harder for the Americans to 'blow off'... not impossible, but harder and likely to be more embarrassing to the USA.
 
devilish said:
get Brexit AND avoid a desperate cliff edge
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Only when it becomes a discussion between the two women leaders Angela and Theresa and they can 'spin a tale' between them, which they are both capable of doing. It will have to look marginally that Merkel has won, to retain her position of authority astride the EU, she can show at least she has secured 'big money' pay-outs from Britain, well into the next decade and should any other EU country try to complain she will say "OK you have to make up the shortfall if Britain leaves with out paying anything".

Theresa will come back to Britain saying sorry folks tried my best and look I've got everything we asked for, our all our cherished freedoms and I have preserved our ability to sell into and buy from the EU... but..the problem is it was pointed out that if we leave with 'no deal', we will ruin Europe if we pull out completely. So we are a rich nation and now we have best of both worlds, sell anywhere to anybody anytime we wish and all its going to cost us is £XYZB over twenty years, if you think that's a failure, I will step down as party leader and PM and hand over to...AGGHH!

PS if it does turn out like this, it could all have been avoided if Junker had done the deal with Cameron... the two casualties with be Theresa in Britain and CJ Junker in the EU, both will need to fall on their swords!
 
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I Believe said:
Only when it becomes a discussion between the two women leaders Angela and Theresa and they can 'spin a tale' between them, which they are both capable of doing. It will have to look marginally that Merkel has won, to retain her position of authority astride the EU, she can show at least she has secured 'big money' pay-outs from Britain, well into the next decade and should any other EU country try to complain she will say "OK you have to make up the shortfall if Britain leaves with out paying anything".

Theresa will come back to Britain saying sorry folks tried my best and look I've got everything we asked for, our all our cherished freedoms and I have preserved our ability to sell into and buy from the EU... but..the problem is it was pointed out that if we leave with 'no deal', we will ruin Europe if we pull out completely. So we are a rich nation and now we have best of both worlds, sell anywhere to anybody anytime we wish and all its going to cost us is £XYZB over twenty years, if you think that's a failure, I will step down as party leader and PM and hand over to...AGGHH!
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I was right the first time, you are Bringbacknani in disguise:lol:
 
I Believe said:
I take your point, but with all due respect, given the size of Britain's economy, given that we sit on the UN Security Council (very handy for the USA to have a pal there, especially when China's playing up about sanctions on N Korea!), given that our GCHQ is (probably) the central listening post for most USA intelligence monitoring in the northern hemisphere, given that Donald has Scots Mother (and he owns a lot of 'stuff' in Scotland), given there are lots of other security (tapping on the side of my nose at this point) which we cannot discuss here, given all that, our 'special relationship will be harder for the Americans to 'blow off'... not impossible, but harder and likely to be more embarrassing to the USA.
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Don’t you think that the US economy is big enough not to give two hoots about the British economy? I mean we’re talking here of an economic and military superpower who didn’t thought twice to pull the plug out of a historical trade deal with most of Europe. Texas alone is 3 times the size of the UK.

Don’t take me wrong I am confident that the US will offer the UK a trade deal. However economy of scale will weight greatly here. Trump might have a soft spot towards the UK however even his powers have limits. He will have to sell that trade deal to congress (most are heavily influenced by lobbyists) at a time when the PE will be at the door. Orange guy has promised that America will always be first to him. He better deliver on that.
I don’t think that the US is devious by nature. The problem with US policy is its own political parties. On one side you’ve got the Republicans who tend to be pro British, pro Israel, pro war and pro capitalism. At the other side of the spectrum you’ve got the Democrats who seem to be pro Europe, pro environment etc. Now the EU had sucked up Obama a bit too much and is now paying the price. There’s nothing to suggest that if Trump loses the next PE, the UK won’t end up in the same situation the EU is now. As they say, the US remembers (or was it the North?)
 
devilish said:
give two hoots about the British economy
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You are not really paying attention are you?

The US needs our defence spending to provide a bulwark in Europe, and all the rest are behind with their payments and France is still arguing about the 2% of GDP required, we need a good economy to provide a decent '2%'contribution to NATO's defence.
If the USA ditches us because we are somehow not going to have influence in Europe and refuse to gives us preferred trading nation status, then their First line of Defence against Russia will suddenly get thinner.
 
I Believe said:
Only when it becomes a discussion between the two women leaders Angela and Theresa and they can 'spin a tale' between them, which they are both capable of doing. It will have to look marginally that Merkel has won, to retain her position of authority astride the EU, she can show at least she has secured 'big money' pay-outs from Britain, well into the next decade and should any other EU country try to complain she will say "OK you have to make up the shortfall if Britain leaves with out paying anything".

Theresa will come back to Britain saying sorry folks tried my best and look I've got everything we asked for, our all our cherished freedoms and I have preserved our ability to sell into and buy from the EU... but..the problem is it was pointed out that if we leave with 'no deal', we will ruin Europe if we pull out completely. So we are a rich nation and now we have best of both worlds, sell anywhere to anybody anytime we wish and all its going to cost us is £XYZB over twenty years, if you think that's a failure, I will step down as party leader and PM and hand over to...AGGHH!

PS if it does turn out like this, it could all have been avoided if Junker had done the deal with Cameron... the two casualties with be Theresa in Britain and CJ Junker in the EU, both will need to fall on their swords!
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Let me give you an example of how the EU works. Malta had (and in some way still has) a huge irregular immigration problem something the pro EU lackey PN couldn’t possibly sort. I still remember the outrage Malmstrom caused when she came to Malta to basically tell us to suck it up.
Anyway, at one point there was a change in government and the labour party took over. Few months later I started working in a ministry so I had some idea of what was going on behind the scene. We were concerned that the new PM (a former Eurosceptic) could use it to reopen the EU membership debate. Instead he totally took us off guard by patiently built support with Italy, Spain and Greece and put forward a very strong case about it. In few years, Germany opened its borders to immigrants, an immigration deal with Turkey (and Libya) was signed, mandatory burden sharing had been approved and soon enough it will be rolled in.

Germany is a big player but it became so mainly because it patiently built the support needed to become one. It certainly won’t be screwing Europe just to appease the UK demands especially since there’s the single market’s integrity in place. If the EU allows the UK to get unrestricted access to the single market (goods and services) without FOM then rest assured that there will be others who would want that same deal as well. That include countries like Norway and Denmark + others like the US or China. That's also the same reason why the EU couldn't give in to Cameron

I think that the UK will fulfil its financial commitments in exchange of a transitional deal. That will balance ‘Brussels’ books and will give the UK the time it needs to try and seal deals with the WTO and countries such as the US etc. After that it will all depend on Boris and Fox ability to sign meaningful trade deals. If they succeed then the UK can afford settling down for a CETA like deal. If not then considering the Brexiters ‘incompetence’ then the UK will have no choice but to go into an EFTA/EEA agreement (which is still leaving the union as specified by the Brexit referendum but its not the Brexit a big chunk of Brexiters wanted)

That explains why an incompetent but highly ambitious Boris would rather resign then take that challenge. As foreign secretary he really risks of being singled out of why the UK had to settle for an EFTA agreement despite Brexit.
 
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I Believe said:
You are not really paying attention are you?

The US needs our defence spending to provide a bulwark in Europe, and all the rest are behind with their payments and France is still arguing about the 2% of GDP required, we need a good economy to provide a decent '2%'contribution to NATO's defence.
If the USA ditches us because we are somehow not going to have influence in Europe and refuse to gives us preferred trading nation status, then their First line of Defence against Russia will suddenly get thinner.
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Seriously? Do you think the US needs the UK's military prowess?

Also have you noticed that Trump doesn't see Russia as a problem at all? He might have a soft spot for the UK but he certainly doesn't give two hoots about Europe. In fact he would most probably, pulled the plug out of Nato if someone hasn't told him that he would give the EU (something he hates) the perfect excuse to raise their own army and become totally independent from US influence.

I mean imagine what would happen if a truly military independent EU is able to sort things out with its neighbour and who knows maybe China as well. These 3 unions combined might even decide to put a stop on the US warmongering through heavy sanctions. I know that its sounds crazy but this thing is already happening (not in the EU but in Turkey). If Serbia joins the EU then Putin will finally has a strong voice in Europe as well at a time when the US has just lost theirs.
 
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I Believe said:
Oh how could you.. the shame of it.. I wouldn't bring back Nani if he was gold plated (like his reported statue in his hallway!)
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Sorry, it was actually a poster called Bringnaniback who hasn't posted in the Brexit forums since around the referendum time but he was full of conspiracy theories. You reminded me of him.
He was a disciple of some anti-EU extremist and amongst his theories were that the EU would disintegrate at any moment, the USD and the Euro would cease to exist imminently. Amongst other things like the earth was flat and there is no gravity
 
devilish said:
The Brexit campaign reminds me of a middle aged man who had been in a relationship for quite some time. His wife is pregnant and the couple had been arguing a lot lately because she expects him to do more in the house.

One fine day, two mates (lets call them Paul and Stanley) takes him to a top model party which is filled with beautiful young ladies in their early 20s. Stanley starts telling him stories he read about them. Some wouldn’t mind being involved in threesomes while others just want to settle down with a rich guy and they wouldn’t care whom their bf bangs as long as he eventually come home. All these girls are financially independent, they earn way more than the middle aged guy which means that they will probably afford him not working. This sea of opportunity is available to him but only if he becomes single.

Paul on the other hand counters to that by saying that these girls are probably out of his league. if the guy leaves his wife for them then she will probably not wantto have anything to do with him and will use every leverage against him to take him to the cleaners. Not to forget that his reputation will be ruined after that and people will be extra careful when dealing with him.

Stanley dismisses Paul concerns by saying that this is all project fear and there's plenty of fuel left in their friend's tank to get what he wants. He assures him that considering his wife’s situation there’s a big possibility that he could seal a new bold and mutually beneficial relationship with her where she basically pay all the mortgage they both agreed to pay and still allow him to sleep with her in exchange of him visiting her every now and then. Being a single mother can be lonely at times and loneliness is a cruel thing. Considering all the top models around him to keep him busy she will need him more then he needs her right? All he has to do is to reassure her that he’s leaving her not her bedroom. If she can find a cheap gym, then he might even pay for her gym subscription because its within his interest to have a fit courtesan to sleep with every now and then.

This was written tongue in cheek and of course the names are purely co-incidential. Having said that if this guy is full of himself and pretty frustrated with his wife then god knows what he will choose.
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I have gotten to the point where I'm not sure what is most depressing leaving the EU or having to wade through another analogy.
 
I Believe said:
You are not really paying attention are you?

The US needs our defence spending to provide a bulwark in Europe, and all the rest are behind with their payments and France is still arguing about the 2% of GDP required, we need a good economy to provide a decent '2%'contribution to NATO's defence.
If the USA ditches us because we are somehow not going to have influence in Europe and refuse to gives us preferred trading nation status, then their First line of Defence against Russia will suddenly get thinner.
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France is still arguing? https://donnees.banquemondiale.org/indicateur/MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS
 
devilish said:
Don’t you think that the US economy is big enough not to give two hoots about the British economy? I mean we’re talking here of an economic and military superpower who didn’t thought twice to pull the plug out of a historical trade deal with most of Europe. Texas alone is 3 times the size of the UK.

Don’t take me wrong I am confident that the US will offer the UK a trade deal. However economy of scale will weight greatly here. Trump might have a soft spot towards the UK however even his powers have limits. He will have to sell that trade deal to congress (most are heavily influenced by lobbyists) at a time when the PE will be at the door. Orange guy has promised that America will always be first to him. He better deliver on that.
I don’t think that the US is devious by nature. The problem with US policy is its own political parties. On one side you’ve got the Republicans who tend to be pro British, pro Israel, pro war and pro capitalism. At the other side of the spectrum you’ve got the Democrats who seem to be pro Europe, pro environment etc. Now the EU had sucked up Obama a bit too much and is now paying the price. There’s nothing to suggest that if Trump loses the next PE, the UK won’t end up in the same situation the EU is now. As they say, the US remembers (or was it the North?)
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I think the US would want a deal, for me as simple as no tariffs at either end of trade.
One of the big factors is that the US is financially in trouble the Brics are starting to do bilateral deals without using the dollar.
What we have in our favour is that our troops have stood with the US and we have voted with them in the UN. Both these points should weigh in our favour, if it comes to harsh words.

We need to be careful we don't appear to upset the American people who are some of our biggest tourists. We will want to keep that source of foreign income.
 
The Outsider said:
We need to be careful we don't appear to upset the American people who are some of our biggest tourists. We will want to keep that source of foreign income.
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:lol:

Not laughing at you, just makes me laugh that no one applied the same logic to the EU
 
devilish said:
Germany is a big player but it became so mainly because it patiently built the support needed to become one. It certainly won’t be screwing Europe just to appease the UK demands especially since there’s the single market’s integrity in place. If the EU allows the UK to get unrestricted access to the single market (goods and services) without FOM then rest assured that there will be others who would want that same deal as well. That include countries like Norway and Denmark + others like the US or China. That's also the same reason why the EU couldn't give in to Cameron

I think that the UK will fulfil its financial commitments in exchange of a transitional deal. That will balance ‘Brussels’ books and will give the UK the time it needs to try and seal deals with the WTO and countries such as the US etc. After that it will all depend on Boris and Fox ability to sign meaningful trade deals. If they succeed then the UK can afford settling down for a CETA like deal. If not then considering the Brexiters ‘incompetence’ then the UK will have no choice but to go into an EFTA/EEA agreement (which is still leaving the union as specified by the Brexit referendum but its not the Brexit a big chunk of Brexiters wanted)
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Fair point about the EU needing to be seen to be harsh on the UK, we have the larger military in our favour though that does concern me as I can some Ukrainian nutcase dragging us into a potential nuclear conflict with Russia.

What might work instead of an upfront exit bill is if we agree not to impose tariffs on EU imports let allow the EU to apply a tariff for UK exports say 2% to be renegotiated in 5 years. Obviously this would need to be run by UK exporters to determine likely impact and whether a subsidy to offset this should be applied.
 
rcoobc said:
:lol:

Not laughing at you, just makes me laugh that no one applied the same logic to the EU
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Agree that might take a hit though judging by Southern and Eastern European economies that is likely to be low. Also do many Germans or French come for tourism?
 
The Outsider said:
Agree that might take a hit though judging by Southern and Eastern European economies that is likely to be low. Also do many Germans or French come for tourism?
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More French people come to the uk than americans, though the Americans spend more.
 
The Outsider said:
I think the US would want a deal, for me as simple as no tariffs at either end of trade.
One of the big factors is that the US is financially in trouble the Brics are starting to do bilateral deals without using the dollar.
What we have in our favour is that our troops have stood with the US and we have voted with them in the UN. Both these points should weigh in our favour, if it comes to harsh words.

We need to be careful we don't appear to upset the American people who are some of our biggest tourists. We will want to keep that source of foreign income.
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The UK will always be the junior partner to the US due to the relative sizes of the two countries. I am not anti-American by any means but what I don't get with Brexiteers is the outrage over "Brussels" (i.e. a formal system of pooled sovereignty where the UK had a very big say) but, with Uncle Sam, it's "You want us to jump? How high?". If you accept that the UK is not big enough to stand in glorious isolation in the modern world and you have to make a choice, then surely it's better to be with your neighbours (over whom you have some control) than relying on a distant, global power for whom, while you might have some sentimental value, you are ultimately fairly low on their list of global priorities?
 
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