Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

[I Believe]

I have a good laugh reading the comments on Brexit newspaper articles in the British press and even on here. Don't know where you get your information from but this is a good laugh as well.

Yes so do I, its hilarious, most people talking out of their low slung orifices (not us two, of course!) ... its all 'Fake News' Paul, the press and media are experiencing their 'halcyon days' and social media... wow! the fountains of knowledge displayed, or maybe it a massive game of Chinese whispers
Enjoy!

 

[The Outsider]

Option B is illegal. The EU can't block all imports from the UK and viceversa.

In my opinion the options are

1. No Brexit deal, No transitional deal, WTO Tarriffs apply. Both parties will accuse one another for sabotaging the deal. The British companies will be banned from competing on EU contracts. Anything from spare-parts to finished products will be stuck at UK-EU ports making any form of logistics a nightmare and there will be all sorts of trade wars (fishing, farming etc).

The UK will respond to it by diverting any money generated from tariffs to help the industry who will blame everything on Brexit and threaten to leave unless the government doesn’t compensate them adequately. A trickle will become a flood with businesses lining up to get their ‘fair’ share of the cake. Meanwhile these companies will open subsidiaries in the EU to get the best of the two worlds. That means more jobs in Europe and less jobs in the UK.

The UK will be desperate to score points by signing trade deals. Corners will be cut which will probably hurt the workers (ie lack of work rights) and the so called protected industries (NHS and Farming). At that point it would be interesting how long it will take before the Brits say enough is enough. The next GE might see JC win who probably work his way back to an EEC agreement.

2. Transitional deal, WTO tariffs apply. The UK will pay its due to the EU and get a 2-3 year transitional period in return. People like Fox and co will be under intense pressure to sign trade deals which will be under heavy scrutiny by both the EU and the Labour part. Any concessions (Ex those who will hit the NHS) will be highlighted and votes will be lost

It would be interesting to see what type of trade deals the UK will be able to sign. India and Australia has already said it wont consider a trade deal with the UK unless it relax its immigration rules. The US will probably demand the UK to open its market to its chlorinated chicken, its GMOs and the privatisation of the NHS etc. The former will horrify the big chunk of xenophobics within the Brexit camp. The latter will horrify the EU who will refuse to offer any meaningful trade deal to the UK after that. There’s a chance that moderate Brexiteers + remainers will unite under JC and vote him in. Brexit will still happen but the UK will opt for an EEC membership.

In my opinion the only alternative the UK has to EU membership (or any of its derivatives) is to join NAFTA. However, considering that Trump is desperate to appease his America first voters there is a big chance that you'll end up getting a raw deal

Agree on your point 1. No Brexit deal the first part, those are possibilities. With the corners being cut, remember it would not be the first time, remember the farmer that punched Prescott? At that time we had closed most of our abattoirs and meat had to be exported for slaughter and then reimported! Also even before Brexit, the UK was upset about other European countries protecting their ownership of large state companies and not allowing competition.

Point 2. We never know what will happen, the EU might come to an unreasonable (always subjective) parting fee for Brexit and we may disagree and if we refuse they might threaten to ban UK exports. And it will run until the WTO or another body intervenes. How long that would take is anyone's guess.
Re chlorinated Chicken is it already in the UK, perhaps via KFC?
We already know from horsemeat being miss-sold a few years ago that even in the EU food standards are questionable. Richer people will still have their supermarkets like Waitrose and organic local deliveries like Abel and Cole down our way.
I don't see the privatisation of the NHS, perhaps the PFI cost to the NHS will finally be debated and re-negotiated as well as salaries of non-medical executives. It will remain a hot topic as always though.

The US will make allowances, we recently took British military contracts from Rolls Royce and BAE and gave them to the US expect more backroom deals like this and some in our favour, unless the US goes completely isolationist and then Brexit will become a sideshow as this would have global implications for everyone.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Yes so do I, its hilarious, most people talking out of their low slung orifices (not us two, of course!) ... its all 'Fake News' Paul, the press and media are experiencing their 'halcyon days' and social media... wow! the fountains of knowledge displayed, or maybe it a massive game of Chinese whispers
Enjoy!

But in all seriousness, I still do not see why people think that the EU are so desperate to cave in to the Uk's whims.
The UK manufacturing base is tiny in comparison, foreign companies that own the majority of the manufacturing that remains could quite easily move it to the continent, no problems with tariffs, VAT, endless paperwork. life will continue to be simpler. Of course if the Pound crashes again then costs would be cheaper.

So what does the UK offer mainly, finance and services, some of those or at worst a lot of those could disappear under a really Hard Brexit and where would most of those go? Secondly there's a customer base of around 65m - yes nice but if there is no easy access (which means FOM) it may seem more problematic than it is worth.

As for money, right, so the EU loses say 12bn a year- it really isn't very much , as I said before in the grand scheme of things it's peanuts. As was the percentage of the UK budget which was made such a big thing of - whether it's 100m, 200m, 350m or 500m a week it's so little, another red herring.
Regarding the "divorce" bill or whatever you want to call it if the Uk has to pay 10bn 20bn 50bn or 100bn and it will be in instalments as long as the EU can trust the UK- credit rating diminishing , it matters little, it's all a question of principle. And thus under no circumstances can the UK be seen to gain anything from leaving.

 

[devilish]

Agree on your point 1. No Brexit deal the first part, those are possibilities. With the corners being cut, remember it would not be the first time, remember the farmer that punched Prescott? At that time we had closed most of our abattoirs and meat had to be exported for slaughter and then reimported! Also even before Brexit, the UK was upset about other European countries protecting their ownership of large state companies and not allowing competition.

Point 2. We never know what will happen, the EU might come to an unreasonable (always subjective) parting fee for Brexit and we may disagree and if we refuse they might threaten to ban UK exports. And it will run until the WTO or another body intervenes. How long that would take is anyone's guess.
Re chlorinated Chicken is it already in the UK, perhaps via KFC?
We already know from horsemeat being miss-sold a few years ago that even in the EU food standards are questionable. Richer people will still have their supermarkets like Waitrose and organic local deliveries like Abel and Cole down our way.
I don't see the privatisation of the NHS, perhaps the PFI cost to the NHS will finally be debated and re-negotiated as well as salaries of non-medical executives. It will remain a hot topic as always though.

The US will make allowances, we recently took British military contracts from Rolls Royce and BAE and gave them to the US expect more backroom deals like this and some in our favour, unless the US goes completely isolationist and then Brexit will become a sideshow as this would have global implications for everyone.

I dont think that the EU is being unreasonable. The UK is an important market for it but its nowhere near to the integrity of the Union. I mean, if the EU is too generous with the UK then there will be others who would want that deal too. To put the ball in the UK court, imagine if Scotland asks Westminster for independence in a bid to remain in the EU but still wants unrestricted access to the UK market and funds. There's no way Westminster would accept that because it knows that if they accept then Wales and N Ireland will probably ask for the same deal

The EU has way more health standards and is far less capitalistic then the US. That doesn't mean I am demonising the US. All I am saying is that economy of scale apply in any trade deal irrespective if the country in question is the US, India, China or a union such as the EU. A big market has the advantage of having leverage on the smaller market especially when the country in question is the US whose quite known to be quite a bully. Not to forget that the UK will be more desperate for a trade deal then the US and Trump is the perfect anti-capitalist, volatile, nationalist president who will do his very best to capitalise on that. Its ironic how Brexiteers are so keen to a TTIP deal when they used to use that deal to criticise the EU on it. That might indicate how desperate the uk is for a trade deal with the US.

If I was TM I wouldn't go for a trade deal with the US. This is really not the time to do that especially with Trump around. Instead I would try to bypass the US by asking for a membership in NAFTA. If the UK cant look East, then it might as well look West. Hopefully Trump will be gracious enough not to capitalise too much over its wounded ally.

 

[devilish]

He's just the 'aunt sally' or stalking horse.. its what comes after!

I struggle how one can anyone describe Boris as a genuine Brexiteer. I mean, we're talking about a person who wrote two articles one in favour and one against of EU membership. Can you imagine Hannan doing that?

In my opinion, Boris is the classic example of how a well connected and charismatic buffoon with good education can reach high places in the UK despite constantly saying stupid things. He's basically Prince Philip Mark II. The only difference is that Philip was loyal to the queen. Boris would probably throw his mother under the bus for a promotion.

 

[IWat]

but economics on the whole is not such a big worry.

I'm not sure if by economics you are simply referring to Germany's ability to pay the UK's contribution or the actual economic system of the EU, because if the latter, it's a complete mess. They have made one of the biggest screwups in the history of monetary policy by creating the Eurozone.

Every single time there is a widespread recession a lot of Eurozone countries are always going to find themselves in trouble. Except next time they will have played most of the tricks that they have. You simply cannot create a currency union with the countries in the Eurozone as they are all so vastly different. In the recession Germany was doing not great but not horrendus while Greece, Spain, Italy and Ireland were close to the edge. This led to almost some kind of middle ground interest rate and QE policy by the ECB, interest rates were lower and QE greater than countries like Germany needed, damaging their growth and interest rates were too high and QE not enough for Greece which nearly took them to faliure as there was no stabilisation transfers. QE and interest rates is not enough when you are trying to balance the needs of a dozen countries who all in an ideal world would prefer QE and interest rates that are different.

The only complete solution to this as Juncker says, will require further economic integration, the complete and proper solution is a Eurozone budget which would require a federal tax, federal goverment etc. Literally the United States of Europe. If you want a currency union and you want it to work properly with the huge variations between countries akin to the differences between states in the US, then you need a federal authority with it's own budget, own income (I am on about FAR, FAR more than country contributions), ability to put limits on countries (states) monetary policy etc

 

[C3Pique]

Just a point for those talking about WTO tariffs, we are not actually in the WTO yet (as a separate entity from the EU).

There are 164 members of the WTO and every single one has a veto on new members. Argentina are already making noises about the Falklands, and we would have no leverage in the negotiations.

Just to give an idea of the problems if we do get in, while the often quoted standard rates for cars is 11%, for fresh food, which we import in vast quantities, the standard WTO tariff is 35%.

Hand up who won;t mind a 35 - 40% increase in food prices. Overnight.

That is what WTO means.

Not to mention if we don't pay our dues then each EU member state also has a veto on us joining the WTO.

I'm not sure what happens if we walk from any deal and it takes time to join the WTO. Can we still trade in that period?

 

[I Believe]

But in all seriousness, I still do not see why people think that the EU are so desperate to cave in to the Uk's whims.

I not sure people (in Britain) do think the EU is desperate to cave in, quite the opposite, brexiteers and some non-brexiteers (now become converts to leaving) feel quite the opposite, you yourself have said it, "Britain can't be seen to be better off leaving the EU", and that sentiment to millions in Britain sounds like "we shall get you at playtime" sort of threat, we will make you suffer, you will not benefit from leaving, etc.
Paul if we won't be missed, as you and many others seem to suggest, good bye and good riddance sort of thing, then why all this bile against Britain surely Junker should be stood holding the door and saying "Cheerio Britain nice to have known you have a good life."

As for money, right,

First the pound had been ridiculously over valued for sometime due to 'QE', so the Brexit result just hurried along and rebalancing already becoming well overdue and allowed the Government to 'dodge a bullet' by blaming the Brexit outcome, Mark Carney breathing silently in relief in his Governors Chair.

Second Britain has for a number of years been subject to Austerity, public sector being badly hit, especially the pay of public sector workers. People saw libraries closing, spare room taxes, local bus services cut etc. etc. so any way that roughly £350m per week can be recovered from the EU, made sense, even if it wasn't really £350 m (more like £250m) and even if it all didn't go into the NHS. What lots of observers seem to forget is that Brexit wasn't decided on economic grounds, that's why expert advice on this wasn't rejected, it just wasn't taken into consideration by vast swathes of British people.

The other thing most Government ministers, remainers, Europhiles and EU Commissioners etc. failed miserably to understand was Brexit was an idea whose time has come. It was not just immigration, although that was a catalyst, it wasn't just Austerity, although that fuelled the fire, it wasn't just taking our country back, making our own laws, it was a recognition that the EU was a monolithic entity incapable of reforming itself, a history of corruption and incompetence, still spending millions moving from one parliament building to another for no good reason whatsoever, it was the quintessential 'gravy-train', worse still headed by a dunce, J C Junker, who so intent on integration at all costs, will steer the whole EU ship straight onto the rocks.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

I not sure people (in Britain) do think the EU is desperate to cave in, quite the opposite, brexiteers and some non-brexiteers (now become converts to leaving) feel quite the opposite, you yourself have said it, "Britain can't be seen to be better off leaving the EU", and that sentiment to millions in Britain sounds like "we shall get you at playtime" sort of threat, we will make you suffer, you will not benefit from leaving, etc.
Paul if we won't be missed, as you and many others seem to suggest, good bye and good riddance sort of thing, then why all this bile against Britain surely Junker should be stood holding the door and saying "Cheerio Britain nice to have known you have a good life."


First the pound had been ridiculously over valued for sometime due to 'QE', so the Brexit result just hurried along and rebalancing already becoming well overdue and allowed the Government to 'dodge a bullet' by blaming the Brexit outcome, Mark Carney breathing silently in relief in his Governors Chair.

Second Britain has for a number of years been subject to Austerity, public sector being badly hit, especially the pay of public sector workers. People saw libraries closing, spare room taxes, local bus services cut etc. etc. so any way that roughly £350m per week can be recovered from the EU, made sense, even if it wasn't really £350 m (more like £250m) and even if it all didn't go into the NHS. What lots of observers seem to forget is that Brexit wasn't decided on economic grounds, that's why expert advice on this wasn't rejected, it just wasn't taken into consideration by vast swathes of British people.

The other thing most Government ministers, remainers, Europhiles and EU Commissioners etc. failed miserably to understand was Brexit was an idea whose time has come. It was not just immigration, although that was a catalyst, it wasn't just Austerity, although that fuelled the fire, it wasn't just taking our country back, making our own laws, it was a recognition that the EU was a monolithic entity incapable of reforming itself, a history of corruption and incompetence, still spending millions moving from one parliament building to another for no good reason whatsoever, it was the quintessential 'gravy-train', worse still headed by a dunce, J C Junker, who so intent on integration at all costs, will steer the whole EU ship straight onto the rocks.

The only bile towards the UK is the disbelief by people in the EU that the UK thinks it can do what it likes. It's not a question of making the UK suffer, you have to abide by the rules, plain and simple. Not only do you have to abide by the rules of trading within the EU but also with trading with the rest of the world.

At this moment in time, the Uk don't want to be in the single market, they don't want to be in the customs union and they will not be members of the WTO when they leave.

I watched yesterday's press conference of May and Trudeau. There's Trudeau saying, yes we can use the CETA agreement as a basis to start talks on a similar agreement over the coming years after Brexit and there's May saying oh we can make a smooth transition to a new relationship.
These idiots in charge of the government and Brexit are still living in cloud cuckoo land - they have got to return to the real world pretty sharpish because time is running out. They've probably got an extended two months to the end of the year to come to their senses.

You watch May yesterday, it's the same thing over and over again, you can tell by her face and body language that she knows she is talking absolute drivel and keeps repeating the same thing over and over again and stumbling over her words because there is no Plan B and when she actually remembers a fact a little smirk of relief comes over her face.

The only entity heading for the rocks is the UK. There is no £350m, there is no £250m, the UK have already lost this money with the devaluation of Sterling.
You think austerity will end when the UK leaves the EU, what evidence at all will show that things will improve when the Uk leaves, there is none.
The value of the pound is not overvalued now and it came very close to be the lowest it has ever been - so how low do you want it to go , parity with the dollar and/or Euro remember that the Uk imports more than it exports so the lower the value of the GBP, the bigger the defecit.
The only reason it hasn't sunk so much against the USD is that Trump is in charge of the USA.

The GBP has gained a bit of strength because of a possibility of an interest rate hike but with Uk debt so high and people's personal debt so high this is not a good thing, people will be even worse off.
Unless the UK alters its stance very soon I fear for the future

 

[Kentonio]

The value of the pound is not overvalued now and it came very close to be the lowest it has ever been - so how low do you want it to go , parity with the dollar and/or Euro remember that the Uk imports more than it exports so the lower the value of the GBP, the bigger the defecit.

Ooh, ooh I know this one!! Apparently we need to make the thing we actually do a lot of (imports) far more expensive, and the thing we do much less of (exports) much cheaper so that apparently we'll go back to doing the thing (manufacturing) that we moved away from 35 years ago because people in the East were doing it a lot cheaper than we ever could anyway.

 

[JPRouve]

It's a bit off topic but in a way it's still relevant to this thread. The problem for the EU and the UK is that both areas have abandoned or somehow ignored the intellectual property war. Instead of trying to use our structural advantages we decided to get into a fist fight with more rugged and more populous countries. We had an advantage in terms of capital but decided to use more work as if we were actually able to lower the latter's costs. As long as we act like proper dimwits we will have the same conversations over and over but with different scapegoats.

Instead of wasting money on Brexit, Olympics(France 2024) or a multitude of useless EU projects. We should make a point and have the absolute best universities in the world, we should try to have the absolute best new tech incubators in the world, we should try to be the most prolific area when it comes to patents.

 

[I Believe]

It's not a question of making the UK suffer, you have to abide by the rules, plain and simple.

So we have to abide by rules that make us suffer? That's the implication of your comments!
When we leave we don't have to follow any rules the EU sets, if they won't trade with us, fine, we will trade with others who will, I'm sure there are lots of Car dealerships in Hong Kong, Singapore, elsewhere (Where they drive on the left side of the road) who will be only too glad to sell us VW/BMW/Skoda's and other German made cars fitted with the appropriate controls, they will even arrange transport directly from European factories to the UK.

Britain is a trading nation, it always has been and it will continue to trade, as long as we continue to make products, deliver services, etc. that others want at the right price, we will do very well and we do not have to pay a £10B per annum subs to the EU club to do so. Its true some sectors may suffer, others will gain, that is the 'ups and downs' of world trade. We have a large relatively wealthy market, the Wine sellers in Italy, Cheese makers in France, the Livestock breeders from Holland etc. will all find a way into Britain's lucrative market, or they will suffer, more than us! Our fishing grounds will be returned, we have still tons of coal under the ground, (if we need it!) wind turbines are springing up everywhere to lessen the energy load on the national grid and if Scotland plays its political cards right, billons could be invested in future Hydro-electric generation in the great lochs, Scotland has the opportunity to become the first fully 'Green' country in Europe, providing it stays in the UK!

Brexit present a great future for the UK, all the naysayers will rail against it, almost like the fading of the light, but we will, if not immediately, then in a short space of time, become a nation at peace with its self, proud to be a part of Europe (not EU), willing work with and support our neighbours as we have always done, but free to make our own decisions.

 

[AshfordLad]

I'm not sure if by economics you are simply referring to Germany's ability to pay the UK's contribution or the actual economic system of the EU, because if the latter, it's a complete mess. They have made one of the biggest screwups in the history of monetary policy by creating the Eurozone.

Every single time there is a widespread recession a lot of Eurozone countries are always going to find themselves in trouble. Except next time they will have played most of the tricks that they have. You simply cannot create a currency union with the countries in the Eurozone as they are all so vastly different. In the recession Germany was doing not great but not horrendus while Greece, Spain, Italy and Ireland were close to the edge. This led to almost some kind of middle ground interest rate and QE policy by the ECB, interest rates were lower and QE greater than countries like Germany needed, damaging their growth and interest rates were too high and QE not enough for Greece which nearly took them to faliure as there was no stabilisation transfers. QE and interest rates is not enough when you are trying to balance the needs of a dozen countries who all in an ideal world would prefer QE and interest rates that are different.

The only complete solution to this as Juncker says, will require further economic integration, the complete and proper solution is a Eurozone budget which would require a federal tax, federal goverment etc. Literally the United States of Europe. If you want a currency union and you want it to work properly with the huge variations between countries akin to the differences between states in the US, then you need a federal authority with it's own budget, own income (I am on about FAR, FAR more than country contributions), ability to put limits on countries (states) monetary policy etc

No. I meant from the point of Germany's finances. They could for example pay €15bn a year into the EUs coffers easily (probably getting yet more benefits in return) and still be in the green. The only question would be how do they sell it the German voters.

I agree that Eurozone wont survive in its current structure and would require massive shift towards centralized monetary policy which would mean shedding some more EU members in the short run.

 

[Nogbadthebad]

So we have to abide by rules that make us suffer? That's the implication of your comments!

He is not implying that, he said we have to abide by the rules in place.

And we do.

Its also worth pointing out that we in the UK wrote a significant chunk of them, including everything associated with article 50 and the rules involved with leaving.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

So we have to abide by rules that make us suffer? That's the implication of your comments!
When we leave we don't have to follow any rules the EU sets, if they won't trade with us, fine, we will trade with others who will, I'm sure there are lots of Car dealerships in Hong Kong, Singapore, elsewhere (Where they drive on the left side of the road) who will be only too glad to sell us VW/BMW/Skoda's and other German made cars fitted with the appropriate controls, they will even arrange transport directly from European factories to the UK.

Britain is a trading nation, it always has been and it will continue to trade, as long as we continue to make products, deliver services, etc. that others want at the right price, we will do very well and we do not have to pay a £10B per annum subs to the EU club to do so. Its true some sectors may suffer, others will gain, that is the 'ups and downs' of world trade. We have a large relatively wealthy market, the Wine sellers in Italy, Cheese makers in France, the Livestock breeders from Holland etc. will all find a way into Britain's lucrative market, or they will suffer, more than us! Our fishing grounds will be returned, we have still tons of coal under the ground, (if we need it!) wind turbines are springing up everywhere to lessen the energy load on the national grid and if Scotland plays its political cards right, billons could be invested in future Hydro-electric generation in the great lochs, Scotland has the opportunity to become the first fully 'Green' country in Europe, providing it stays in the UK!

Brexit present a great future for the UK, all the naysayers will rail against it, almost like the fading of the light, but we will, if not immediately, then in a short space of time, become a nation at peace with its self, proud to be a part of Europe (not EU), willing work with and support our neighbours as we have always done, but free to make our own decisions.

It's not only the rules of the EU you have to abide by, it's the rules of the rest of the world too. Rules that are not made up for the sake of punishing the UK. You are obsessed with German made cars(by the way you do realise that dealerships/agencies operate as franchises and operate with rules like where they can sell -this is apart the logistical and tariff/VAT , documentation)and with this £10bn which I repeat is peanuts. When you sell to other countries outside the EU you have to abide by those countries' rules as well. I can confirm that many are much more difficult than selling to the EU , the other question is what is the UK going to sell that it isn't doing already.
One minute you're talking about green and then talk like Trump about the coal. Wind turbines are not unique to the UK.

Why do you keep saying that the EU will suffer more than the UK, the UK sells around 50% of it's products to the EU whereas each individual country of the EU sells a small fraction of its products to the UK.
Take Germany who are by far the biggest supplier to the UK - it's 7.6% of their exports and only 1.8% is cars .
Remember I've taken the biggest supplier by far - 7.6% against 50%

 

[devilish]

I'm not sure if by economics you are simply referring to Germany's ability to pay the UK's contribution or the actual economic system of the EU, because if the latter, it's a complete mess. They have made one of the biggest screwups in the history of monetary policy by creating the Eurozone.

Every single time there is a widespread recession a lot of Eurozone countries are always going to find themselves in trouble. Except next time they will have played most of the tricks that they have. You simply cannot create a currency union with the countries in the Eurozone as they are all so vastly different. In the recession Germany was doing not great but not horrendus while Greece, Spain, Italy and Ireland were close to the edge. This led to almost some kind of middle ground interest rate and QE policy by the ECB, interest rates were lower and QE greater than countries like Germany needed, damaging their growth and interest rates were too high and QE not enough for Greece which nearly took them to faliure as there was no stabilisation transfers. QE and interest rates is not enough when you are trying to balance the needs of a dozen countries who all in an ideal world would prefer QE and interest rates that are different.

The only complete solution to this as Juncker says, will require further economic integration, the complete and proper solution is a Eurozone budget which would require a federal tax, federal goverment etc. Literally the United States of Europe. If you want a currency union and you want it to work properly with the huge variations between countries akin to the differences between states in the US, then you need a federal authority with it's own budget, own income (I am on about FAR, FAR more than country contributions), ability to put limits on countries (states) monetary policy etc

Italy/Greece economy will always find themselves in trouble mainly because they sit on a huge mountain of debt. The Euro has actually delayed the inevitable which was their total financial meltdown. No wonder why these countries were so eager to join the Euro.

 

[Kentonio]

So we have to abide by rules that make us suffer? That's the implication of your comments!
When we leave we don't have to follow any rules the EU sets, if they won't trade with us, fine, we will trade with others who will, I'm sure there are lots of Car dealerships in Hong Kong, Singapore, elsewhere (Where they drive on the left side of the road) who will be only too glad to sell us VW/BMW/Skoda's and other German made cars fitted with the appropriate controls, they will even arrange transport directly from European factories to the UK.

Britain is a trading nation, it always has been and it will continue to trade, as long as we continue to make products, deliver services, etc. that others want at the right price, we will do very well and we do not have to pay a £10B per annum subs to the EU club to do so. Its true some sectors may suffer, others will gain, that is the 'ups and downs' of world trade. We have a large relatively wealthy market, the Wine sellers in Italy, Cheese makers in France, the Livestock breeders from Holland etc. will all find a way into Britain's lucrative market, or they will suffer, more than us! Our fishing grounds will be returned, we have still tons of coal under the ground, (if we need it!) wind turbines are springing up everywhere to lessen the energy load on the national grid and if Scotland plays its political cards right, billons could be invested in future Hydro-electric generation in the great lochs, Scotland has the opportunity to become the first fully 'Green' country in Europe, providing it stays in the UK!

Brexit present a great future for the UK, all the naysayers will rail against it, almost like the fading of the light, but we will, if not immediately, then in a short space of time, become a nation at peace with its self, proud to be a part of Europe (not EU), willing work with and support our neighbours as we have always done, but free to make our own decisions.

I wish I had drugs as good as yours.

 

[I Believe]

It's not only the rules of the EU you have to abide by,

Not when we've left!
No one I know goes on following the rules of a club or organisation once its left... because of the rules!

If we negotiate a new set of rules that apply afterwards, that's different of course, but once we've left using Article 50, we have left according to the existing rules, thereafter we are free to go our own way, as is the EU, its not rocket science!

If after we've left, EU countries and others who want to trade with us they will, a way will be found, if they don't want to trade with us then it won't matter how many rules are in place, they won't. David Cameron, Mark Carney and many others 'rowed back' on project fear and admitted we could survive outside the EU, indeed some went as far as saying we might 'even prosper'.

Yes, its a gamble but 54% of the population wants to take that gamble, of the 48% who didn't want to leave they have to decided what they want to do. Some are trying to amend the conditions of leaving, so in effect we haven't left, but Mr Junker and his cohorts have made it clear that's not happening and if it did we would definitely be worse off for even daring to suggest we left, so that's a blind alley. Others are threatening to leave Britain, that's up to them of course, others want to make the best of a bad job as they see it and will go along with the majority. Some, mainly the 'remoaners' are doing their level best to sink the ship, if it leaves the EU port and their toys will definitely come out of the pram if they can't see us all in sack clothe and ashes.

As for 'other rules' world wide etc. we will try to negotiate of course, but in the end we will probably rely on individual deals, specific products, specific services, specific countries, the economy will change that's for sure, but for most people living outside our 'City states', like London and Manchester, it is likely to be a much better deal, inside the City states, a much worse one, all the cheap labour and zero hour contracts work will either 'plump up' or disappear.

 

[I Believe]

I wish I had drugs as good as yours.

Yes, reading your comments, I would say you need them!

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Not when we've left!
No one I know goes on following the rules of a club or organisation once its left... because of the rules!

If we negotiate a new set of rules that apply afterwards, that's different of course, but once we've left using Article 50, we have left according to the existing rules, thereafter we are free to go our own way, as is the EU, its not rocket science!

If after we've left, EU countries and others who want to trade with us they will, a way will be found, if they don't want to trade with us then it won't matter how many rules are in place, they won't. David Cameron, Mark Carney and many others 'rowed back' on project fear and admitted we could survive outside the EU, indeed some went as far as saying we might 'even prosper'.

Yes, its a gamble but 54% of the population wants to take that gamble, of the 48% who didn't want to leave they have to decided what they want to do. Some are trying to amend the conditions of leaving, so in effect we haven't left, but Mr Junker and his cohorts have made it clear that's not happening and if it did we would definitely be worse off for even daring to suggest we left, so that's a blind alley. Others are threatening to leave Britain, that's up to them of course, others want to make the best of a bad job as they see it and will go along with the majority. Some, mainly the 'remoaners' are doing their level best to sink the ship, if it leaves the EU port and their toys will definitely come out of the pram if they can't see us all in sack clothe and ashes.

As for 'other rules' world wide etc. we will try to negotiate of course, but in the end we will probably rely on individual deals, specific products, specific services, specific countries, the economy will change that's for sure, but for most people living outside our 'City states', like London and Manchester, it is likely to be a much better deal, inside the City states, a much worse one, all the cheap labour and zero hour contracts work will either 'plump up' or disappear.

If the Uk want to sell anything they cannot do what they want - if they want to sell to the EU they have to abide by the EU's regulations, if they sell to the USA, they have to abide by US regulations, if they sell to Australia they have to abide by Australian regulations. Of course if you don't want any rules or standards in the UK, you can import any old rubbish - so does the Uk become a dumping ground for all the rubbish that can't be sold elsewhere.
52% of the people who voted (not the population) and a lot who were obviously duped or had other motives , the remoaners as you call them are not trying to sink the ship , they're trying to stop the Brexiters from scuttling it.

 

[Kentonio]

Brexit present a great future for the UK, all the naysayers will rail against it, almost like the fading of the light, but we will, if not immediately, then in a short space of time, become a nation at peace with its self, proud to be a part of Europe (not EU), willing work with and support our neighbours as we have always done, but free to make our own decisions.

Oh and just a little point about this particular gem; because of lovely people like yourself, I am now having to work towards getting a second nationality in another EU country purely so I can retain my EU citizenship. The amount of work that takes (and limitations it imposes on me in the meantime) are considerable and ensure that like millions of others I will never 'be at peace' with this fecking ridiculous and wildly naive decision.

I went from being proud of Britain and telling every European I meet (which is a lot given that I live in France) about how great British people are once you get past the initial reserve, to basically being disgusted by my own country and at least half of the people in it. You've helped create the deepest divide in Britain in modern history, and if you think that is going to be magically fixed by a mythical future where unicorns shit rainbows across the economy and the people across Europe you just told to feck off will join hands to work with you, then you should seek professional help immediately.

 

[I Believe]

You are obsessed with German made cars

No, its the thing everyone seems to use as a yard stick, that's why I used it, its not just the sale its the manufacture of cars by overseas companies, they have invested millions in machinery and plant and training British workers, they will not pull out, but even if they did it would be over time, which is why transition periods are a doubtful recourse for the UK!

£10bn which I repeat is peanuts

Not to those in Britain suffering the effects of Austerity, who would quite like a bit of that £10B!

One minute you're talking about green and then talk like Trump about the coal

Pointing out the potential in Scotland x2 years worth of EU subs (£20B) invested in a Hydro-Electric plant in the Great Lochs would make Scotland self sufficient in energy and able to sell off some to elsewhere, remember there are only about 5m people in Scotland, its greatest export is Scotsmen!
We have coal stocks should we ever need them! Trump however wants to go back to such fuels as a matter of policy... there is a difference Paul, if you look for it!

Wind turbines are not unique to the UK.

Of course not, but we are now well ahead of many European countries with this development, paid for by higher fuel bills, which Government keeps pretending its going to reduce...'tell it to the marines'!

 

[I Believe]

I am now having to work towards getting a second nationality in another EU country purely so I can retain my EU citizenship.

Good luck with that, sounds like your settled in France anyway?

 

[I Believe]

if you think that is going to be magically fixed by a mythical future where unicorns shit rainbows across the economy and the people across Europe you just told to feck off will join hands to work with you, then you should seek professional help immediately.

Oh, you say the nicest things Kentonio... I'm sure you are a bit hit in France!

 

[Paul the Wolf]

No, its the thing everyone seems to use as a yard stick, that's why I used it, its not just the sale its the manufacture of cars by overseas companies, they have invested millions in machinery and plant and training British workers, they will not pull out, but even if they did it would be over time, which is why transition periods are a doubtful recourse for the UK!

Not to those in Britain suffering the effects of Austerity, who would quite like a bit of that £10B!

Pointing out the potential in Scotland x2 years worth of EU subs (£20B) invested in a Hydro-Electric plant in the Great Lochs would make Scotland self sufficient in energy and able to sell off some to elsewhere, remember there are only about 5m people in Scotland, its greatest export is Scotsmen!
We have coal stocks should we ever need them! Trump however wants to go back to such fuels as a matter of policy... there is a difference Paul, if you look for it!

Of course not, but we are now well ahead of many European countries with this development, paid for by higher fuel bills, which Government keeps pretending its going to reduce...'tell it to the marines'!

If the foreign car manufacturers deem it economically viable to stay in the UK, if only to produce for the UK market , they will stay, if it doesn't remain viable they will gradually pull out, the same as many other industries, finance and service operations, the pressure is on and time is running out for the Uk to sort itself out, an additional problem is that you have May, Boris, Davis, Fox and co. in the front line.

The original £10bn has already gone, but the £10bn the Uk is now spending might soon disappear as well plus a lot more on top if they don't shape up.
Germany and Spain are miles ahead of the UK on wind turbines and France is about the same as the UK. If you're not going to touch the coal, it may as well not be there.

 

[I Believe]

the pressure is on and time is running out for the Uk to sort itself out

Listening to the fake news again, have we Paul? I'll bet you love BBC's Newsnight don't you?

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Listening to the fake news again, have we Paul? I'll bet you love BBC's Newsnight don't you?

There's nothing fake about it, can't wait for May's speech in Florence - although I could probably tell you the major points now.
We are looking for a deep and special relationship with the EU.
We are going to have a bespoke deal with the EU (where we pay no fees, take in no foreigners, have zero tariffs and no EU laws and do just what the hell we like)

When the rest of Europe has managed to stop laughing they'll be back at the tables next week. Then we'll have Davis saying that they have made important progress but he can't say what and Barnier will be saying that the Uk doesn't put any realistic proposals on the table and don't seem to understand reality.
Then we move onto October 17 months to goodbye UK, , rinse and repeat, 16 months, 15 months.....

By the way haven't watched Newsnight for over 10 years

 

[I Believe]

We are going to have a bespoke deal with the EU

Theresa's just waiting for Angela to be re-elected then both of them will sit down and negotiate.
Mrs Merkel will decide for the EU (like she always does), Macron will 'swoon' over her brilliant EU statesmanship and agreed with everything she says! Italy might do a bit of posturing before agreeing, the rest will do as they are told!

Barnier/Davis are a side-show a warm up act! until Mrs Merkel's ready.

Theresa's speech on Friday will contain just enough to help Mrs Merkel be re-elected (she is in a strong position anyway, but if Theresa can do anything to help she will!)

Then its gloves off for both leaders as they sit down to as it were 'arm wrestle'. The extremes are no deal at one end, at the other Britain gets everything it wants but has to foot a massive bill (by instalments) for years to come.
If its this last one Theresa will come home, 'fall on her sword' and the new Tory Leader will... do as Angela has told them! End of Saga!

By the way haven't watched Newsnight for over 10 years

Oh you should, it will be music to your ears...I'm convince its a fifth column for remoaners, Evan's the best, he goes ape when anyone tells him Brexit is the best thing since sliced bread

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Theresa's just waiting for Angela to be re-elected then both of them will sit down and negotiate.
Mrs Merkel will decide for the EU (like she always does), Macron will 'swoon' over her brilliant EU statesmanship and agreed with everything she says! Italy might do a bit of posturing before agreeing, the rest will do as they are told!

Barnier/Davis are a side-show a warm up act! until Mrs Merkel's ready.

Theresa's speech on Friday will contain just enough to help Mrs Merkel be re-elected (she is in a strong position anyway, but if Theresa can do anything to help she will!)

Then its gloves off for both leaders as they sit down to as it were 'arm wrestle'. The extremes are no deal at one end, at the other Britain gets everything it wants but has to foot a massive bill (by instalments) for years to come.
If its this last one Theresa will come home, 'fall on her sword' and the new Tory Leader will... do as Angela has told them! End of Saga!



Oh you should, it will be music to your ears...I'm convince its a fifth column for remoaners, Evan's the best, he goes ape when anyone tells him Brexit is the best thing since sliced bread

I can't wait for this scenario to not happen, when it doesn't (when is it supposed to happen, by the way and more interestingly what makes you think it will) then what..

I'm trying to keep a straight face here but I'm sure the German electorate are waiting on every word May has got to say before they decide whether to vote for Merkel or not.
By the time next week's negotiations start we should already know the result.

 

[devilish]

Theresa's just waiting for Angela to be re-elected then both of them will sit down and negotiate.
Mrs Merkel will decide for the EU (like she always does), Macron will 'swoon' over her brilliant EU statesmanship and agreed with everything she says! Italy might do a bit of posturing before agreeing, the rest will do as they are told!

Barnier/Davis are a side-show a warm up act! until Mrs Merkel's ready.

Theresa's speech on Friday will contain just enough to help Mrs Merkel be re-elected (she is in a strong position anyway, but if Theresa can do anything to help she will!)

Then its gloves off for both leaders as they sit down to as it were 'arm wrestle'. The extremes are no deal at one end, at the other Britain gets everything it wants but has to foot a massive bill (by instalments) for years to come.
If its this last one Theresa will come home, 'fall on her sword' and the new Tory Leader will... do as Angela has told them! End of Saga!

If that had to happen then it would sign the end of the EU and possibly the EEA. Many countries will want the same deal the UK got ie unrestricted access to the single market - FOM or/and contributions to the EU. Meanwhile the likes of Canada, the US and China will want the same deal the UK got.

The UK will be paying alot but that would be for a transitional deal which will allow it time to sign new trade deals

 

[The Outsider]

I dont think that the EU is being unreasonable. The UK is an important market for it but its nowhere near to the integrity of the Union. I mean, if the EU is too generous with the UK then there will be others who would want that deal too. To put the ball in the UK court, imagine if Scotland asks Westminster for independence in a bid to remain in the EU but still wants unrestricted access to the UK market and funds. There's no way Westminster would accept that because it knows that if they accept then Wales and N Ireland will probably ask for the same deal

The EU has way more health standards and is far less capitalistic then the US. That doesn't mean I am demonising the US. All I am saying is that economy of scale apply in any trade deal irrespective if the country in question is the US, India, China or a union such as the EU. A big market has the advantage of having leverage on the smaller market especially when the country in question is the US whose quite known to be quite a bully. Not to forget that the UK will be more desperate for a trade deal then the US and Trump is the perfect anti-capitalist, volatile, nationalist president who will do his very best to capitalise on that. Its ironic how Brexiteers are so keen to a TTIP deal when they used to use that deal to criticise the EU on it. That might indicate how desperate the uk is for a trade deal with the US.

If I was TM I wouldn't go for a trade deal with the US. This is really not the time to do that especially with Trump around. Instead I would try to bypass the US by asking for a membership in NAFTA. If the UK cant look East, then it might as well look West. Hopefully Trump will be gracious enough not to capitalise too much over its wounded ally.

I dont think that the EU is being unreasonable. The UK is an important market for it but its nowhere near to the integrity of the Union. I mean, if the EU is too generous with the UK then there will be others who would want that deal too. To put the ball in the UK court, imagine if Scotland asks Westminster for independence in a bid to remain in the EU but still wants unrestricted access to the UK market and funds. There's no way Westminster would accept that because it knows that if they accept then Wales and N Ireland will probably ask for the same deal

The EU has way more health standards and is far less capitalistic then the US. That doesn't mean I am demonising the US. All I am saying is that economy of scale apply in any trade deal irrespective if the country in question is the US, India, China or a union such as the EU. A big market has the advantage of having leverage on the smaller market especially when the country in question is the US whose quite known to be quite a bully. Not to forget that the UK will be more desperate for a trade deal then the US and Trump is the perfect anti-capitalist, volatile, nationalist president who will do his very best to capitalise on that. Its ironic how Brexiteers are so keen to a TTIP deal when they used to use that deal to criticise the EU on it. That might indicate how desperate the uk is for a trade deal with the US.

If I was TM I wouldn't go for a trade deal with the US. This is really not the time to do that especially with Trump around. Instead I would try to bypass the US by asking for a membership in NAFTA. If the UK cant look East, then it might as well look West. Hopefully Trump will be gracious enough not to capitalise too much over its wounded ally.

Devilish,

You pose good questions, my thoughts below.

When you say unreasonable, do you have a parting fee of £100bn or £50 bn in mind. To me those figures are ludicrous, sure if we want to remain in the market with our opts then arguably we could pay an annual fee for access though anything close to £12bn would be politically unacceptable. In terms of a settlement I would say only for settling a ratio of pension / staff costs for the EU parliament based on a ratio shared amongst the other nations and for the period of membership. I doubt this would exceed £1bn and that might be high. Of course we might argue that has already been paid for the last 40 years by our payments to the EU.

Any annual / periodic fee for single market access or EU technology sharing ideally should be applied to those industries / groups seen to be benefitting though they might baulk at the cost.

Know what you mean about the US being a trade bully and economies of scale, and us being in a vulnerable situation, no argument from me.

I don't think the US will seek to punish us though the better question might be how far they would go to help us. Under Trump we might actually get a hand though how that would work is anyone's guess. We already have done deals with the Chinese Investment Bank that the US did not initially like.

It is possible that we might seek to lower corporation tax in the short term to retain corporate HQs, something I am not keen on though would accept this with the priority being on the financial side.

There is another possibility that we might already be encouraging other countries to withdraw perhaps with silent promises, I haven't heard of this yet would not be surprised.

I don't actually think this will break the Union, it could cause issues and certainly the SNP would look to capitalise yet with Catalonia threatening a break away I don't think the EU will be too keen to seem meddlesome in this area for being seen as a hypocrite.

In desperate times we might see desperate measures, long has there been talk of oil in the Falkland's or in places like Hampshire or Berkshire and I don't mean fracking. This would not guarantee financial credit worthiness yet might bring us close enough. I don’t think this will happen yet depends on circumstances.

There should be increased demand on our manufactured products due to lower exchange rates, like Japan likes our shoes and Burberry is being mentioned in terms of success in China and with possible lower corporation rates they might flourish.

If it goes bad then we could revert to a type of national socialism where we look to keep money in the economy and stop unnecessary outflows, probably the least desirable option.

With manufacturing, we might be able exploit the left-hand vehicle drive with Australia and NZ obviously there would be a deal to be made as we would need to give something yet international trade normally benefits both sides. We don’t necessary need to build cars it could be emergency vehicles or coaches or a new ‘VW camper van’, after all we did build the mini once upon a time.

In global politics there are always people looking for friends and this would bring opportunities, I notice Turkey buying the Russian S-400 missiles has recently upset the Pentagon. This is an example of how alliances can change in times of uncertainty.

Bizarre as it may seem we actually fought on the same side as the Russians in two world wars that should give the US some incentive to be reasonable. Of course, only if things get desperate.

Another factor, China supposedly has a lot of respect for the UK perhaps it’s longevity and them liking Burberry coats might be something that can be exploited for a while, tastes being cyclical, IMO.
Yes another unexpected advantage from a falling pound:

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/record-number-of-chinese-tourists-flocking-to-london-after-brexit-sparks-plunge-in-the-pound-a3438751.html


Japan is a country that intrigues me and liked their concept of national café using local produce staffed by older people looking to earn small wages and stay occupied and social. I think with the looming pension deficits of people my age this could be something we could do here, we could even use the misshapen veg the supermarkets won’t take. If we get back a sizeable portion of our fishing industry and there is little demand again this could be used for national cafes providing cheaper food. I’m also for school dinners using local food too. All of this would likely need some subsidies yet is a way of keeping money in the economy when you already have the raw material it makes sense.

NHS, I ‘ve beaten agina, prostate, headaches, immune disorders, wifi sensitivity (like Charlie Guard I have tech that used to say my mitochondria was being attacked) and I have helped two couples struggling to have kids overcome infertility. Most of the heads of our public institutions are corrupt IMO and have sold out to corporate interests and also vested interests within the NHS like pushing unnecessary surgery. Then we have the PFI interest scandal and high salaries for some non-medical staff which needs to be understood more. So big savings could be made if the need is there. I could say much more about this.

Paul the Wolf mentions WTO membership could be blocked by Argentina over the Falklands, I think the Falkland’s would be sacrificed if this was seen to be the key to avoiding financial hardship as long as the inhabitants were moved somewhere safe. My take currently is that May by meeting with Canada and other players is taking soundings before considering the WTO route.

In summary we are now in a high-stakes game and the outcome is not clear yet there will be opportunities for those willing to keep their wits about them.

 

[The Outsider]

I went from being proud of Britain and telling every European I meet (which is a lot given that I live in France) about how great British people are once you get past the initial reserve, to basically being disgusted by my own country and at least half of the people in it. You've helped create the deepest divide in Britain in modern history, and if you think that is going to be magically fixed by a mythical future where unicorns shit rainbows across the economy and the people across Europe you just told to feck off will join hands to work with you, then you should seek professional help immediately.

Kentonio do you work in the global finance industry?

Down my way the police are nearly all support UKIP because of what they face on the streets from certain groups from South East Europe and second or third generation gangsters and kids from earlier waves doing nasty crimes.

Remember we do not hate Europe just the people saying we cannot control our borders and saying we must give prisoners the vote and things like this.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Paul the Wolf mentions WTO membership could be blocked by Argentina over the Falklands, I think the Falkland’s would be sacrificed if this was seen to be the key to avoiding financial hardship as long as the inhabitants were moved somewhere safe. My take currently is that May by meeting with Canada and other players is taking soundings before considering the WTO route.

That wasn't me.

I think unless the Uk dramatically change their stance, WTO will be the only route open to them but that is not going to be straightforward - thus a transitional deal with the EU is the likely outcome until that happens- say 2025 - so basically another 7 or 8 years of being in the EU. Other than that who knows until May and co. stop living in fairy land.

 

[The Outsider]

That wasn't me.

Apologies, if I misquoted you though did indeed think it was a good point.

 

[Sweet Square]

Boris Johnson is dangerous – but so are the Brussels elite

http://www.thenational.scot/comment..._dangerous_____but_so_are_the_Brussels_elite/

 

[Kentonio]

Kentonio do you work in the global finance industry?

No.

Down my way the police are nearly all support UKIP because of what they face on the streets from certain groups from South East Europe and second or third generation gangsters and kids from earlier waves doing nasty crimes.

Remember we do not hate Europe just the people saying we cannot control our borders and saying we must give prisoners the vote and things like this.

So about those criminals..

Question: The Vote Leave campaign has published a dossier of 50 dangerous citizens from EU states, including murderers and rapists, who have been allowed into Britain. It says this is evidence that the UK is “unable to prevent dangerous individuals from walking into the country” while it remains in the trade bloc. Is there any truth in this?

Answer: It is simply not the case that, as Nigel Farage has claimed, “we can’t stop people like this entering the country”. The EU’s 2004 citizenship directive makes it clear that the free movement of people within the EU is not an unqualified right and can be restricted on grounds of “public policy, public security or public health”. This means that serious offenders can be denied entry and the right to live in Britain.

Yet again, we already had the power to stop serious criminals from the EU coming in, but the government didn't bother (just like they didn't bother enforcing the 3 month job hunt or leave thing). So do people blame the government for shirking their responsibilities? No of course not, it's yet again the EU's fault.

 

[devilish]

Devilish,

You pose good questions, my thoughts below.

When you say unreasonable, do you have a parting fee of £100bn or £50 bn in mind. To me those figures are ludicrous, sure if we want to remain in the market with our opts then arguably we could pay an annual fee for access though anything close to £12bn would be politically unacceptable. In terms of a settlement I would say only for settling a ratio of pension / staff costs for the EU parliament based on a ratio shared amongst the other nations and for the period of membership. I doubt this would exceed £1bn and that might be high. Of course we might argue that has already been paid for the last 40 years by our payments to the EU.

Any annual / periodic fee for single market access or EU technology sharing ideally should be applied to those industries / groups seen to be benefitting though they might baulk at the cost.

Know what you mean about the US being a trade bully and economies of scale, and us being in a vulnerable situation, no argument from me.

I don't think the US will seek to punish us though the better question might be how far they would go to help us. Under Trump we might actually get a hand though how that would work is anyone's guess. We already have done deals with the Chinese Investment Bank that the US did not initially like.

It is possible that we might seek to lower corporation tax in the short term to retain corporate HQs, something I am not keen on though would accept this with the priority being on the financial side.

There is another possibility that we might already be encouraging other countries to withdraw perhaps with silent promises, I haven't heard of this yet would not be surprised.

I don't actually think this will break the Union, it could cause issues and certainly the SNP would look to capitalise yet with Catalonia threatening a break away I don't think the EU will be too keen to seem meddlesome in this area for being seen as a hypocrite.

In desperate times we might see desperate measures, long has there been talk of oil in the Falkland's or in places like Hampshire or Berkshire and I don't mean fracking. This would not guarantee financial credit worthiness yet might bring us close enough. I don’t think this will happen yet depends on circumstances.

There should be increased demand on our manufactured products due to lower exchange rates, like Japan likes our shoes and Burberry is being mentioned in terms of success in China and with possible lower corporation rates they might flourish.

If it goes bad then we could revert to a type of national socialism where we look to keep money in the economy and stop unnecessary outflows, probably the least desirable option.

With manufacturing, we might be able exploit the left-hand vehicle drive with Australia and NZ obviously there would be a deal to be made as we would need to give something yet international trade normally benefits both sides. We don’t necessary need to build cars it could be emergency vehicles or coaches or a new ‘VW camper van’, after all we did build the mini once upon a time.

In global politics there are always people looking for friends and this would bring opportunities, I notice Turkey buying the Russian S-400 missiles has recently upset the Pentagon. This is an example of how alliances can change in times of uncertainty.

Bizarre as it may seem we actually fought on the same side as the Russians in two world wars that should give the US some incentive to be reasonable. Of course, only if things get desperate.

Another factor, China supposedly has a lot of respect for the UK perhaps it’s longevity and them liking Burberry coats might be something that can be exploited for a while, tastes being cyclical, IMO.
Yes another unexpected advantage from a falling pound:

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/record-number-of-chinese-tourists-flocking-to-london-after-brexit-sparks-plunge-in-the-pound-a3438751.html


Japan is a country that intrigues me and liked their concept of national café using local produce staffed by older people looking to earn small wages and stay occupied and social. I think with the looming pension deficits of people my age this could be something we could do here, we could even use the misshapen veg the supermarkets won’t take. If we get back a sizeable portion of our fishing industry and there is little demand again this could be used for national cafes providing cheaper food. I’m also for school dinners using local food too. All of this would likely need some subsidies yet is a way of keeping money in the economy when you already have the raw material it makes sense.

NHS, I ‘ve beaten agina, prostate, headaches, immune disorders, wifi sensitivity (like Charlie Guard I have tech that used to say my mitochondria was being attacked) and I have helped two couples struggling to have kids overcome infertility. Most of the heads of our public institutions are corrupt IMO and have sold out to corporate interests and also vested interests within the NHS like pushing unnecessary surgery. Then we have the PFI interest scandal and high salaries for some non-medical staff which needs to be understood more. So big savings could be made if the need is there. I could say much more about this.

Paul the Wolf mentions WTO membership could be blocked by Argentina over the Falklands, I think the Falkland’s would be sacrificed if this was seen to be the key to avoiding financial hardship as long as the inhabitants were moved somewhere safe. My take currently is that May by meeting with Canada and other players is taking soundings before considering the WTO route.

In summary we are now in a high-stakes game and the outcome is not clear yet there will be opportunities for those willing to keep their wits about them.

a- No one knows exactly how much the EU bill will be. In my opinion it will be around 40b-50b. Considering that the UK exports more then 50% to the EU market then that is hardly a huge bill to pay although tbf unless the UK change government/direction then I cant see any meaningful deal being made between the UK and the EU that won't be temporary. As I said in previous posts I have a feeling that the EU will consent to a transitional deal of 2-3 years in exchange of the UK paying its dues. That will give the UK more time to sort some of its trade deals and the EU to pay the bills without any risk of upsetting the single market integrity to the risk of having a contagion. A disagreement on that matter will make both parties look bad with the UK being given a reputation of having a tendency of not honouring the deals it previously agreed with and the EU being portrayed as a vindictive group. Neither party can afford that.

b-While trust is important in trade deals, business is still business. The congress will have to give its go ahead to any trade deal made and with Trump under pressure to exploit every inch of vulnerability the UK will show. In the past the UK was seen as the bridge between the EU and the US, a sort of 'agent within' that kept the EU under check on the US behalf. That leverage is gone. That's why Obama begged the UK to stay in the EU and that's why I believe the UK desperately needs a transitional deal with the EU that will give it some breathing space

c- I don't think that the complex British economy can be supported by low corporate tax. There again, corners can be cuts regarding subsidies to farming, the NHS and military. On the other hand that will further piss off the average voter + it will further diminish the UK's importance on the world's scene

d- China will certainly love to steal the UK from under the US noses. There again, if the UK/EU end up clashing then I think it would rather choose the latter then the former.

e- I dont think that any EU country will be interested to join the UK quest anytime soon. Most either depend on FOM or on the single market two things the UK wont provide. The EU is nowhere near to a United states of Europe just yet. But the Brits centuries old divide and conquer policy is getting too predictable for Europe taste.

f- I share some of the concerns about the WTO especially considering the fact that the UK was a bit of a cnut with some of the countries in the past (ex Carribbean banana war with the EU). History is what it is and some might still pissed off with either the empire, the UK wars in the past few decades or even some of the comments made by important people in the past such as Prince Philip. I dont believe the UK wont be able to sort things out with the WTO. However its going to be a hell of a bumpy right which (and I hate repeating myself) will make a transitional deal with the EU a centrepiece of UK politics

To conclude I do believe that Brexit will happen. I think that both the UK and the EU wants it by now (As Vince Cable said Juncker's speech certainly didn't help the remainers cause). However with the Tory party in full cat fight mode and the government being as wobbly as ever, I fancy the Tory government being kicked out of government long before Brexit (or the end of the transitional deal) happens. If JC wins next GE (which I think he will) then he will probably opt for an EEA membership or the so called Swiss model. That will suit both parties with the UK retaining unrestricted access to the single market while being able to seal deals with other countries as well (+ from a position of strength) and the EU retaining the UK's contributions and will continue its process for further integration without its reluctant former member blocking it every single time.

 

[The Outsider]

Yet again, we already had the power to stop serious criminals from the EU coming in, but the government didn't bother (just like they didn't bother enforcing the 3 month job hunt or leave thing). So do people blame the government for shirking their responsibilities? No of course not, it's yet again the EU's fault.

If we had that power I find it unbelievable the Remain side did not use that in their arguments as I never recall hearing it.

 

[Kentonio]

If we had that power I find it unbelievable the Remain side did not use that in their arguments as I never recall hearing it.

The Remain campaign was a shambles. There were many things they could and should have done, and failed to do so.

 

[CassiusClaymore]

If we had that power I find it unbelievable the Remain side did not use that in their arguments as I never recall hearing it.

Trouble with that is the remain side were the government. Can you see David Cameron holding his hands up and saying "yeah it's all our fault actually" ?