Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
I think he's implying non-EU people are not entitled to the same state benefits such as childcare and all those.

You still get childcare etc if you're a non-EU nurse in the UK. A bunch of countries have an agreement on this even if you're under "immigration control":

Algeria, Morocco, San Marino, Tunisia, Turkey, Barbados, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Canada, the Channel Islands, Israel, Kosovo, Macedonia, Mauritius, Montenegro, New Zealand, Serbia.

Oh, and if you're from any country and sponsored, you also get it,
 
Serious question - has there been any comment from the Labour Party re. the risks of losing single market access post election?
 
I liked this quote from Carney this morning -

"Before long, we will all begin to find out the extent to which Brexit is a gentle stroll along a smooth path to a land of cake and consumption".
 
The Chancellor said most globalisation has focused on goods, especially from China and Germany - but 80% of Britain's economy is now in services like finance, IT and communications.

"For the UK to be able to share fairly in the benefits of globalisation, we need to lead a global crusade for liberalisation of services," he said.

"Fragmentation of financial services would result in poorer quality, higher priced products for everyone."
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/immigration-not-shut-down-declares-10652145
Why it makes no sense whatsoever to leave the single market
KxMkI2j.png
Keeping free trade of goods, but denying ourselves freedom to trade services, is an absolute disaster.
 
The state of politics in this country at the moment... Madness has basicallly taken hold and we've decided to throw ourselves off the cliff in the hope that there's a land of plenty on the rocks beneath.
 
The state of politics in this country at the moment... Madness has basicallly taken hold and we've decided to throw ourselves off the cliff in the hope that there's a land of plenty on the rocks beneath.

It's 100% down to the fear mongering media.
 
Serious question - has there been any comment from the Labour Party re. the risks of losing single market access post election?

Stamers done quite a lot of interviews but mainly about leaving the customs union on the table.

Overall Labours position is still that leaving the single market is a necessary part of Brexit so i wouldn't expect to hear them scream the risks. They'll still have an eye on the next election
 
Brexit: the options for trade
Chapter 5: A UK-EU free trade agreement - House of Lords

https://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201617/ldselect/ldeucom/72/7208.htm

Some really interesting discussion there from the HoL
Goods

135.Witnesses agreed that tariff-free access for goods to the EU’s market could be included in a FTA. Mr González García said agreeing tariffs on industrial goods would be straightforward (“I do not see why there should be barriers or obstacles in the automotive industry”), though agreement on tariffs for agriculture and market access for fishing would be more of a “challenge.”187 He added it would be “very easy” to agree on “rules of origin, customs procedures, customs facilitation and co-operation”.188

136.Mr Ruparel said that regardless of what might be included in a FTA, complying with rules of origin and incurring tariffs on goods with parts produced outside of the UK would be an “additional administrative burden for businesses and goods exporters.”189

Services

137.Witnesses also recognised that a FTA provided the possibility of some liberal terms for trade in services with the Single Market, though Mr González García suggested that some services might be easier to include than others, such as telecommunications and e-commerce.190

138.Mr Ruparel went further, saying that services “will clearly be the most difficult sector, particularly financial services, as there is no precedent for third-country access to the Single Market in financial services and other services.”191 Both Dr Gehring and Mr Ruparel said that previous FTAs signed by the EU which included services were some distance short of the access the UK currently enjoys as an EU Member State. Dr Gehring said: “Let us be honest: the current acquis of EU rules is normally much broader [than a FTA].” While the CETA agreement included “some mild form of mutual recognition of qualifications”, there were “quite a few areas of the existing EU acquis that I have not seen in any FTA in a bilateral relationship”.192 Mr Ruparel noted that while CETA provided “some rights of establishment, and the ability to set up subsidiaries and entities in the EU”, it was “far short … of providing a passport and being able to provide a service from your home base in the UK”. There were also “hundreds of pages of restrictions”, and so he concluded that a similar agreement between the UK and the EU “would be a big change for the UK, particularly on the services side”.193

Complying with EU law

139.Mr González García, Dr Gehring and Mr Ruparel agreed that if the UK wanted comprehensive market access under a FTA with the EU, it would have to accept EU regulations and standards. Mr González García said that in negotiations, “the EU is going to ask, ‘You want access to financial services. Which of my directives are you going to implement and replicate in your law?’” He suggested that “the easiest thing would be for the UK to adopt the EU law”, to ensure that “level of access to EU services would be greater”. On the other hand, he cautioned that “the more you want to be in the Single Market, the more locked into EU law you would be”, and that this would result in “less flexibility in negotiation with third countries” on future FTAs.194 Dr Gehring agreed, noting also that this might be “politically … very difficult, because sometimes you do not have political input into how the standards are made.”195

140.In some cases, though, meeting EU standards and regulations would not necessarily require the UK to adopt EU law, if it could demonstrate that its domestic law had an equivalent effect. Dr Gehring referred to the example of the Emissions Trading System, where the UK “would rather have a carbon tax, but the overall price of carbon between the two systems was similar, [so] there could be an equivalence negotiation”.196 Mr Ruparel cautioned, though, that whether “you meet the equivalence standards … is a political not a technical decision”.197

Dispute resolution

141.Dispute resolution under FTAs is described in Box 7.
Any FTA would require the establishment of some form of mechanism to resolve disputes. Countries can also use the WTO dispute settlement which allows for an appeal of the decision and for compensation if the case is won.

When set up within the framework of a FTA, the most common procedure for resolving trade disputes is state-to-state dispute settlement. In this case, a state complains about violations of the agreement by the other state to a joint panel. However, dispute settlement clauses in FTAs are as diverse as the FTAs themselves.

In FTAs containing an investment chapter, it is also possible to include a dispute settlement mechanism between investors and states (investor-state dispute settlement—ISDS). This grants an investor the right to resort to international arbitration against a country’s government where the host state violates the rights granted to an investor under public international law.198 In the case of the proposed Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) and under CETA, this has proved extremely controversial. The provisional application of CETA agreed in October 2016 does not include these investor-state dispute resolution provisions.

If there is a dispute about trade relations between the Switzerland and the EU, the CJEU will initially publish its decision, and this decision will then go to a joint committee of Swiss and EU officials, which decides on how this issue should be viewed in the context of their bilateral relationship.
142.According to Mr González García, the advantage of including dispute settlement clauses within FTAs was that they provided an extra (if indirect) benefit to business and investors by offering “an additional forum where the state will call the other state to say that they have an issue”.199 FTAs provided complainants with the ability to “challenge and appeal the decision by an impartial, neutral administrative tribunal, in quasijudicial or judicial proceedings”.200

143.On the other hand, Dr Gehring argued that states seem to “prefer the WTO process”.201 That process can result in the complainant being allowed to impose countermeasures—such as breaking its own WTO obligations towards the member that lost in WTO dispute settlement (for example by imposing tariffs beyond the bound tariff rate)—which may convince the trading partner to bring its actions into line with WTO practice.202 Dr Gehring emphasised that FTA dispute resolution clauses worked on a state-to-state level and so did not provide businesses with the opportunity to challenge the actions of their trading partners unless they had “access to the Government” and could “easily sway the entire United Kingdom to take on, say, the United States”.203

144.Several witnesses urged the Government to consider developing more robust dispute settlement arrangements to police a future FTA between the UK and the EU. Referring to the EFTA Court, Dr Gehring said: “A joint court between EU judges and UK judges to administer the new comprehensive relationship could be possible”.204 Mr Ruparel agreed.205 We note that such a proposal is unlikely to pass legal scrutiny by the CJEU. In 1991, it ruled against a proposal to establish an EEA court composed of eight judges—including five from the CJEU—on the basis that such a system was incompatible with Community law. As a consequence, the EFTA Court was set up pursuant to a different model.206 Dr Gehring too warned that such “creativity may run into slight difficulties”.207 He referred to the Swiss model of dispute resolution (which does not have a court): “The practice over the last 10 years has shown that … it is basically impossible for the Swiss side to get any change negotiated in the joint committee, because the Commission officials feel legally bound by the definitive judgment of the Court of Justice.”208
It goes on
 
Not only that, IIRC Spain actually require EU nationals to have residence cards, so they can track who is in and who is out. For a country obsessed with security and spying for safety reasons, it's amazing how much opposition there is against a simple ID card which is also a much more practical means of ID than a big unwieldy passport.

The fact they don't track arrivals and departures of EU nationals actually puts us in a worse position than non-EU people when it comes to proving residence. The amount of pain the HO have caused for simple admin reasons is absolutely disproportionate to any risks I might pose. Another reason why I think Theresa May is not fit to govern the country - her HO was so badly managed.
 
:lol: sure it is. Trump likes to think he's a businessman. Will he risk damaging trade with a market of 700 million people to placate a (clearly desperate) market of 60 million?

He's not the brightest and can be as irrational and vindictive as the EU - he's shown that - so who knows ?

On the other hand, there isn't an FTA between the USA and the EU, so he wouldn't be putting much at risk as you suggest.
 
Given the EU's contempt for the Tump and Trump's contempt for the EU ( Frau Fatarse in particular ) I'd say this is a done deal.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-britain-usa-trade-idUKKBN1990HN
It will certainly happen FBD, but it's not going to really help because....

1) Nothing can be arranged whilst Britain is in the European Union. Its actually illegal for Mr Fox to even negotiate trade deals whilst Britain remains a member. No one knows what Britain will come away with in terms of keeping existing European Trade Deals.

If Brexit is delayed, or there are transitional arrangements, it could long delay any UK-USA deal

2) There is still a decent chance that the USA will negotiate a deal with the EU, first, and that could even still include the UK. USA-EU negotiations have at least started, even if Trump, Brexit and controversy with TTIP has thrown spanners in the works.

3) The UK has a goods deficit but a services surplus. It doesn't really help to have greater access to goods if we can't sell our services in return. What exactly are we meant to be selling the USA? I fully support the idea of a free trade deal with the USA, but simply removing tax from US goods will cost the UK government, and would be rather pointless if we don't benefit.

4) We cant replicate what we have with the EU with the US. If that's not the point, then fine, but it needs to be said.

If a car manufacturer in Germany needs to increase their stock of a certain part, they can buy it from Britain and expect it to appear overnight on cheap road freight - we are as competitive to Berlin as Italy or Poland are.

For the US, that simply isn't true. The Atlantic ocean adds cost and time, not to mention we are already geared towards the EU markets.

5) Negotiating trade deals is complicated, and takes a long time. Britain hasnt had a single trade negotiator in over 40 years (I think). Are we really going to manage to negotiate TWO major trade deals simultaneously?

6) By the time the UK leaves the EU, the political landscape may have changed drastically.

Labour could be in power in the UK. Trump may have been empeeched in the US. If the transitional period includes staying in the customs union for 5 years, the Democrats may even have power again. The EU may have taken steps towards Federilisation with Macron. It could be a very different place.

........

Now I totally support the idea of free trade and free work areas between Canada, USA, Australia, New Zealand, etc. That sounds great... But we need to be realistic about the time scale and what it will actually achieve.
 
Last edited:
Yeah, that was my first thought too. Mental that such a massive decision was forced upon such a poorly informed electorate. Shame on both campaigns really.
If immigration was the biggest concern of Brexit voters then surely us enforcing residence IDs would see them and us remain voters happy. I guess they may say the damage has been done, but leaving the EU outright doesn't rectify that.
 
Never realised any of this, and to be honest, it's a pretty big thing not to cone into light. If anything it just shows how poor the Remain campaign was.

It's been said on here countless times though, the Remain campaign clearly wasn't good enough but would Brexiters listen? if the Sun or Mail etc say anything, it must be true but they wouldn't listen to people who actually know what they're talking about
 
Never realised any of this, and to be honest, it's a pretty big thing not to cone into light. If anything it just shows how poor the Remain campaign was.

It was raised and circled around in the televised debates but Leave just shot it down repeating they couldn't stop them coming into the country. The campaign was never on practicalities but leavers racism/xenophobia heck it's not really the Europeans anyone wanted to stop but it was clearly seen as a gateway to further controls.

If you packaged up what we already do along with what we can do these people would lap it up if it was sold as a new nasty measure.
 
It's been said on here countless times though, the Remain campaign clearly wasn't good enough but would Brexiters listen? if the Sun or Mail etc say anything, it must be true but they wouldn't listen to people who actually know what they're talking about
I've not read about it in here. I think they probably would have though. Might have given them something more to complain about, but that line of argument could at least have been dampened

I guess the problem with the Remain campaign would be that they're essentially admitting they got it wrong by not enforcing it.
 
Never realised any of this, and to be honest, it's a pretty big thing not to cone into light. If anything it just shows how poor the Remain campaign was.
Yeah, that was my first thought too. Mental that such a massive decision was forced upon such a poorly informed electorate. Shame on both campaigns really.
It was one of the jokes with Cameron's EU Negotiations.

Also, it should be said there are clearly some problems with these rules.
  • An economic migrant could stay for as long as he/she wanted, as long as he wasn't a burden to the tax payer.
  • After three months you can ask jobless EU migrants to leave if they are a burden to the tax payer, but under current UK rules they need to be an economic burden for three additional months (or something similar).
But... something important then happened days before the EU referendum.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...enefits-to-unemployed-eu-migrants-judges-rule

Suddenly, the UK would have had the right to not pay unemployed EU migrants for five years!

Jobless EU migrants would no longer have been much of a burden at all to the UK Taxpayer.
 
I've not read about it in here. I think they probably would have though. Might have given them something more to complain about, but that line of argument could at least have been dampened

I guess the problem with the Remain campaign would be that they're essentially admitting they got it wrong by not enforcing it.

It seems like the strategy was deflect to the failures of the government onto the EU, not enough to actually make people vote to leave (because they never thought that was likely) but enough to shift the blame. From that moment the country has lurched from one chaotic problem to another.
 
It will certainly happen FBD, but it's not going to really help because....

1) Nothing can be arranged whilst Britain is in the European Union. Its actually illegal for Mr Fox to even negotiate trade deals whilst Britain remains a member. No one knows what Britain will come away with in terms of keeping existing European Trade Deals. And one of the reasons I am so anti-EU

If Brexit is delayed, or there are transitional arrangements, it could long delay any UK-USA deal Agreed.

2) There is still a decent chance that the USA will negotiate a deal with the EU, first, and that could even still include the UK. USA-EU negotiations have at least started, even if Trump, Brexit and controversy with TTIP has thrown spanners in the works. If the Canadian deal is anything to go by, Trump will not have the patience to wait 7 years.

3) The UK has a goods deficit but a services surplus. It doesn't really help to have greater access to goods if we can't sell our services in return. What exactly are we meant to be selling the USA? I fully support the idea of a free trade deal with the USA, but simply removing tax from US goods will cost the UK government, and would be rather pointless if we don't benefit. No, don't agree there...The UK Government currently has to pass on to the EU 80% of any Import Dutiers it collects, whther USA, China, Japan, etc. Outside the Customs Union, and until an FTA, the UK Government could keep all 100%. Thereafter, depends on the terms of the FTA, but any remaining Tariffs on US imports would be 100% to the UK Government

4) We cant replicate what we have with the EU with the US. If that's not the point, then fine, but it needs to be said. Agreed

If a car manufacturer in Germany needs to increase their stock of a certain part, they can buy it from Britain and expect it to appear overnight on cheap road freight - we are as competitive to Berlin as Italy or Poland are. My company is in the Logisitics business - we actually deliver fresh cream cakes, baked in Texas, to oil rig workers 60 mile off shore the Angolan coast within 36 hours. It can be done. UPS, FedEX, DHL exist for precisely this. For surface transport, OK it takes longer and is usually cheaper, but once you're over the two week introductory 'stretch ' in the Supply Chain, it's business as normal.

For the US, that simply isn't true. The Atlantic ocean adds cost and time, not to mention we are already geared towards the EU markets. I'll be contreversial and suggest that it's more the EU that is geared towards supplying the UK rather than the other way round. About 500 trucks a day return from the UK to continental Europe absolutely empty.

5) Negotiating trade deals is complicated, and takes a long time. Britain hasnt had a single trade negotiator in over 40 years (I think). Are we really going to manage to negotiate TWO major trade deals simultaneously? Agreed. But as the UK can't start negotiating with the USA until after leaving the EU, there won't be too much simultaneous negotiating with 'inexperienced' negotiators.

6) By the time the UK leaves the EU, the political landscape may have changed drastically.

Labour could be in power in the UK. Trump may have been empeeched in the US. If the transitional period includes staying in the customs union for 5 years, the Democrats may even have power again. The EU may have taken steps towards Federilisation with Macron. It could be a very different place. I want to believe it will...It needs to for everyone's sake.

........

Now I totally support the idea of free trade and free work areas between Canada, USA, Australia, New Zealand, etc. That sounds great... But we need to be realistic about the time scale and what it will actually achieve.

No arguments from me on that.
 
What the hell are you on about he and the rest have been banging the drum we fundamentally disagreed with that approach for nearly a year now. That we wouldn't be held to divorce talks first.

In case thats too hard to grasp here's words from the man himself, saying we're now in a worse position




FFS couldn't he have released this the day after they said 'no parallel talks' instead of 6 months later with a 2 year deadline ticking.
 
No, don't agree there...The UK Government currently has to pass on to the EU 80% of any Import Duties it collects, whether USA, China, Japan, etc. Outside the Customs Union, and until an FTA, the UK Government could keep all 100%. Thereafter, depends on the terms of the FTA, but any remaining Tariffs on US imports would be 100% to the UK Government
Good point, and to be honest, customs duties only counts for 0.4% of government tax receipts. I guess that shows the low-duty time we live in. But for us, services are so much more important than goods. This good really be a a case where a bad deal IS worse than no deal.
My company is in the Logisitics business - we actually deliver fresh cream cakes, baked in Texas, to oil rig workers 60 mile off shore the Angolan coast within 36 hours. It can be done. UPS, FedEX, DHL exist for precisely this. For surface transport, OK it takes longer and is usually cheaper, but once you're over the two week introductory 'stretch ' in the Supply Chain, it's business as normal.
Yeah, it can definitely be done. For oil rig workers, that would pretty much make sense anyway.

And I'm not saying that China can't compete with EU manufactured goods; that clearly isn't the case, but that the EU single market is a market where goods can be moved about cheaply, essentially overnight. Having warehouses in Milan, Germany and the UK is common, and goods can be moved about between then quickly and cheaply. It's a large 'domestic' market.

Compare that to the best a US-UK free trade agreement will produce; there will always be customs to clear because the UK will be a separate customs area, goods will always take longer to travel and be more expensive in doing so, because of the distance involved.

The UK-US agreement could hugely benefit both countries, but the will never recreate a domestic market agreement.
I'll be controversial and suggest that it's more the EU that is geared towards supplying the UK rather than the other way round. About 500 trucks a day return from the UK to continental Europe absolutely empty.
Entirely true.
 
Apologies for the scruffy way I've replied....Need to go out and it's just easier and quicker this way....

I'd be interested to know the price per unit of the said cream cake including transport cost, duties and other taxes.

If tariffs are paid and the government collects the money , hope the British people are aware that it is them who are paying and not the country who have exported the goods
 
I'd be interested to know the price per unit of the said cream cake including transport cost, duties and other taxes.

If tariffs are paid and the government collects the money , hope the British people are aware that it is them who are paying and not the country who have exported the goods
Well he was sending out to an oil rig, presumably under US control off the Angolian coast?

So maybe no duty or taxes at all?

But yes indeed, if sent to the UK, it is the UK buyer that will pay for it (same as VAT)... but in support of UK cream cake makers who do not need to pay it.

And the UK cream cake maker would pay income tax (on employees), National Insurance (on employees), and corporation tax amongst other things.

So Free Trade needs to be done fairly or can damage the economy
 
Well he was sending out to an oil rig, presumably under US control off the Angolian coast?

So maybe no duty or taxes at all?

But yes indeed, if sent to the UK, it is the UK buyer that will pay for it (same as VAT)... but in support of UK cream cake makers who do not need to pay it

But how does the cream cake get to the oil rig?

Noticed you added a bit - yes.

Another point is that although the UK would get all the duties, what has been conveniently left out is that the 27 other countries have also imported from outside the EU and all those goods are now in free circulation within the EU and the UK doesn't have to pay the duty on them whilst in the EU other than from the collective pot.
 
Last edited:
I'm going to take an unusual step and defend brexit.

It's indefensible from an economic standpoint, clearly, and it's indefensible from a logistical viewpoint so I won't even bother with that.

However, I will defend it from the notion of democratic principles. I happen to agree that a federalised Europe with a single body determining restrictions and allowing free movement for people would be a good thing.

I cannot, however, understand how allowing EU officials like Tony Blair, Juncker, John Major and Neil Kinnock to set policy for the entirety of Europe without ever needing to go through a voting process is democratic.

If we were to have a federal Europe it should be transparent and clear to everyone what the benefits (and there are many) could be but this "avoid the democratic process at all costs!" is dangerous. Look at what happens at any person in a position of power for a large time period and the results - usually unending corruption and the avoidance of any sort of accountability.