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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


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I've always wondered do other EU countries have a different relationship with their MEPs? And is this relationship the reason they are generally more pro EU?
It's probably too simplistic to say most people in UK don't know who their MEP is but there's probably an even greater disconnect between constituents and their MEP than with their MP. Is there a closer relationship in other EU countries?

I can only speak for France and the answer is no, there isn't a closer relationship.
 
So you think that the importing company hasn't paid any of those? And you think that the cream cake maker (how has it come to this...) wouldn't suddenly have to suffer from indoor tariffs when it exports? That's the whole problem with tariffs: everyone loses, it's just a question of how much and who loses more. That's how we have come to that whole idea of free trade, you know. It's especially funny when people in Germany talk about the re introduction of tariffs when just 150 years ago, we had a convoluted system of those between our 100+ member states. Nobody would want to go back to that either I guess. Because in the end, the whole country profited when those were gone.


Your other bollocks I'll reply to later....


What you're describing is exactly what the UK, and other late entrants, signed up to join in 1972.

If it was still like that, we wouldn't be having this discussion. But somehow that utopia got hijacked....

But I'll throw this out to you while I go for dinner - do any of the other counties in the world which have Free Trade Agreements with the EU have to sign up to (1) Pay the EU an annual membership fee and (2) Accept unlimited immigration of EU citizens into their country and (3) accept the ECJ as the highest court of jurisdiction of its citzens ?

Think carefully before you answer and you might then understand the mood in the UK outside of this forum....
 
Are you sure about this? Like, really really sure?

Because from my recollection, Road Freight takes 10 times the number of goods per kg per mile than Rail Freight does.

Which is why it's such a nonsense when people talk about increasing the amount of goods going by rail to decrease the amount going by road. If you doubled the amount of goods going by rail (which let's face it, is a near impossible task), you'd only be cutting the number going by road by 10%. Barely even noticeable to the average person.
@fcbforever
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https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/489894/tsgb-2015.pdf


I don't have any specific data for car parts, but I would guess you are entirely wrong about this.
 
Your other bollocks I'll reply to later....


What you're describing is exactly what the UK, and other late entrants, signed up to join in 1972.

If it was still like that, we wouldn't be having this discussion. But somehow that utopia got hijacked....

But I'll throw this out to you while I go for dinner - do any of the other counties in the world which have Free Trade Agreements with the EU have to sign up to (1) Pay the EU an annual membership fee and (2) Accept unlimited immigration of EU citizens into their country and (3) accept the ECJ as the highest court of jurisdiction of its citzens ?

Think carefully before you answer and you might then understand the mood in the UK outside of this forum....

That wasn't the point of what you were saying or of what I replied to here. This was specifically about free trade, not the EU. I also love you for still saying "in the U.K." when you are not even living there iirc :D
 
@fcbforever

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/489894/tsgb-2015.pdf


I don't have any specific data for car parts, but I would guess you are entirely wrong about this.

Using broad data to extrapolate specific data is a terrible idea. Trains only make sense if you ship large numbers. Which you do in this case. Hella, for example, sure as hell exports by train as well. They are basically doing the lighting for every single car built in the U.K. Some of it also arrives by ship from China.
 
If you have the misfortune to have to deal with these global logistics companies, as we do, every day, because they're our customers - we're just sub-contractors in a longer supply chain between USA and oil producers throughout West Africa - you'd be shot at dawn for suggesting there is such a thing as 'standardized' supply chain management. Each and every one of them inists they have a unique solution. It's bollocks, but....

What I am trying to explain ( seemingly unsuccessfully ) is that the 'free passage' of physical products within the EU is exploited by cross-border manufacturers and retailers to ensure that the supply chain they eventually end up with is for their own benefit. The EU would have you believe that free passage of 'physical goods' inside the EU is to the benefit of the consumers. OK...If you go to Italy once a month, as we do, and on the way back fill your car with Tariff Free Perroni, as we do, then it obviously is.

But manufacturers and retailers don't set up their supply chains for the benefit of their customers. They do it for their own benefit, usually because it makes life easier and / or cheaper for themselves and, if, there is then a knock-on benefit for a certain group of consumers, then that's an indirect, usually unintended benefit for that group.

Current EU free passage rules facilitates this enormously. And even worse, some manufacturers and retailers then take the piss by having all their stock in Ireland or wherever, despatch it from there; and bill you from Luxemburg

End result - The supply chains are not optimised for speed and cost of delivery to the customer. If you're a manufacturuer, it might mean that your JIT order date is now 4 days instead 24 hours if the stock was in the same country as yourself. So you need to carry more stock. So you have to finance that stock. So your costs go up. And, usually, so do your prices. Who pays for that ? We do, the consumers.....

Over the years I've probably dealt with every shipping line, every courrier company, loads of transport companies and loads of airlines.
My vote as the most bloody difficult is Maersk and the worst location Maersk UK.
Playing them all off against each other, companies asking me to use them every day. Get the most competitive prices to be competitive for your customer, just the freight costs can break a deal.
We regularly had shipments by sea and air, products sourced from all over Europe including the UK to customers in Africa which we grouped together in Germany or Belgium or Holland or France whichever was most economically convenient. They were quickly delivered to the grouping point because of free movement. Now if the UK is out of free movement - UK products will not go and will be sourced elsewhere. And many companies do this.
 
Using broad data to extrapolate specific data is a terrible idea. Trains only make sense if you ship large numbers. Which you do in this case. Hella, for example, sure as hell exports by train as well. They are basically doing the lighting for every single car built in the U.K. Some of it also arrives by ship from China.
Maybe but you said they arrive in the UK by a wide margin. If that was true there would have to be a 20 fold change compared to the average.

It just seems very strange
 
Maybe but you said they arrive in the UK by a wide margin. If that was true there would have to be a 20 fold change compared to the average.

It just seems very strange

You realise I was talking about car supply chains, how little those those make up of overall import and that this likely isn't true for every single car part imported into the U.K.?
 
The UK electors vote for their constituency MP. In voting for the particular MP, they can be 99.999999999% certain who that MP would support as Prime Minister. They can, equally, be 99.999999999% certain that they will not know who any Prime Minister will 'nominate' as an EU Commissioner on their behalf for the UK because it is never mentioned in the parties' manifestos. And they will never know who the Prime Minister will choose to vote for as Chief Commissioner beause that is never discussed in the GE manifestos either. That is what so many of us see as undemocratic.

Out of a thousand or so HoL members, about 850 were appointed by the same Politicos ( all parties ) who also decide(d) who to 'nominate' as EU Commissioners on behalf of the UK.

Same people, same system really - if you feel the HoL isn't democratic, I can't see how you can believe the appointment of EU Commissioners is democratic.

And don't get too hung up about cream cakes. I just used it as an example that moving anything from anywhere to anywhere else in a very short time critical delay is entirely possible these days. It might be cream cakes today, but there could also be a 280kg drill bit travelling from Texas to off-shore Angola at the same time, on the same planes / tenders and with the same transit time. And in answer to the questions - most of the rigs are owned by the Angolan Government and are operated by American drilling companies so I've no idea what the tax flow is with these. We just collect stuff in, usually, Lagos, and fly it down to Luanda where we hire tenders to deliver to the rigs - whether its cream cakes, toilet rolls or drill bits, anything in fact which is needed with a degree of urgency.

And the bit about once inside the EU, everything moves about quite efficiently.

Well, one of the reasons that the Dutch like the EU is that about 75+% of imports into the EU pass through Rotterdam, and the Dutch get to keep 20% of Tariffs collected on behalf of the EU. That's a lot of jobs and a lot of money from Tariffs fixed by the EU, not the Dutch, and why a NEXIT is unlikely to happen anytime soon.

As for efficiencies, yes of course there are time saving efficiencies moving stuff across borders inside the EU - but the 'old' TIR system coped quite well for decades. And an example of how these efficiencies are there for manufacturers, not for the public -

THe BMW Mini Plant in Oxford receives about 170 inbound trucks each day with components from all over Europe, which arrive in crates called ' gitterboxes ' all the same size, spec, etc, so that they can be handled uniformly once inside the Oxford Plant. The trucks then return back to Europe with nothing but empty gitterboxes from the previous deliveries to use for the next deliveries. Meanwhile, the finshed cars are then exported by a combination of road / rail / ship back into Europe.

Now this obviously suits BMW, but do you really believe that all these inefficiencies aren't factored into the price of a Mini when you buy it ? If you buy Spanish grown fruit and vegetables, do you really believe that you're only paying for the truck to bring them from Spain, and not for the empty truck returning to Spain ?

So all of us consumers are already paying for ( or should I say contributing to ) inefficient Supply Chains which more and more manufacturers use for their own benefit rather than for the benefit of us consumers because it's now easier to move 'stuff' around inside the EU.

Don't understand the obssesion with empty trucks, I'm sure that happens internally as well, it's still the cheapest way of doing business otherwise they wouldn't do it
 
Over the years I've probably dealt with every shipping line, every courrier company, loads of transport companies and loads of airlines.
My vote as the most bloody difficult is Maersk and the worst location Maersk UK.
Playing them all off against each other, companies asking me to use them every day. Get the most competitive prices to be competitive for your customer, just the freight costs can break a deal.
We regularly had shipments by sea and air, products sourced from all over Europe including the UK to customers in Africa which we grouped together in Germany or Belgium or Holland or France whichever was most economically convenient. They were quickly delivered to the grouping point because of free movement. Now if the UK is out of free movement - UK products will not go and will be sourced elsewhere. And many companies do this.


Aahh....Maersk ! Idiots. Nasty idiots as well, back in the day, when I used to fly for them out of Birmingham.

Made a lot of us redundant with 24 hours notice so that they could offload the company to their sycophantic UK managers in a management buyout in 2003.....Which then went down the tubes in less than a year. Schadenfreude.....

What you describe is correct, of course....All our aircraft leave with consols, every flight - we couldn't live without it - that's how this industry survives.

But am I not correct ( probably not ) that anything going from, say, UK to Angola as part of a consolidation can stay airside in Brussels or Leipzig before transferring to the flight down to Lagos, where for a few hundred dollars, in cash of course, it can stay airside until we collect it and hand it over to Customs in Luanda where it gets cleared with everything else ?

Yeah...I know I'm using specifics, but don't the same principles apply to any destination ex-UK which doesn't have an FTA with the EU ?
 
Consolidated cargo can do that but as the average clearance time is 2 weeks and import tariffs are horrendous in Angola, not a place I would have want to do business with. Did a lot of business with Nigeria.

But if the UK is out of the zone, consolidating cargo from the UK in mainland Europe becomes much more costly and complicated no matter the destination.
 
Your other bollocks I'll reply to later....


What you're describing is exactly what the UK, and other late entrants, signed up to join in 1972.

If it was still like that, we wouldn't be having this discussion. But somehow that utopia got hijacked....

But I'll throw this out to you while I go for dinner - do any of the other counties in the world which have Free Trade Agreements with the EU have to sign up to (1) Pay the EU an annual membership fee and (2) Accept unlimited immigration of EU citizens into their country and (3) accept the ECJ as the highest court of jurisdiction of its citzens ?

Think carefully before you answer and you might then understand the mood in the UK outside of this forum....

You are comparing apples with oranges, a typical Brexiteer folly. The UK has a FTA that covers services atm, not just goods and sets the rules as well as having access to markets across Europe where the scale of its companies and its power to set those very same rules give it a competitive advantage. I mean how is this so difficult?

Your point about EU citizens coming into this country - are they some sort of fecking degenerates? What is wrong with people like you who make it out as if Europeans are not the closest culturally to the UK and probably integrate best as well as allow the native population to learn a bit about their closest trading partners and business markets?

Btw, the UK decided to open its borders to the new joiners and that's why you saw that mass immigration wave of these commonly despised Polish people who came here to work. Other countries opted not to do this. It was the UK government's fault and mismanagement that causes all these issues and this is also the case for benefit fraud and letting people overstay without a job.

I am sick to death of this Daily Mail 'reasoning' but I'm sure I will hear more about 'mood' soon enough. It's the Westminster government that people should rise against, not the EU...
 
I'm going to have to be careful here - I already got a yellow card for replying to some of your bollocks months ago.


That wasn't the point of what you were saying or of what I replied to here. This was specifically about free trade, not the EU. I also love you for still saying "in the U.K." when you are not even living there iirc :D

Still got a UK passport; own property in the UK; son and daughter living / working in the UK; pay most of my taxes in the UK; and might have to go back to the UK if BREXIT goes tits up.

Satisfied ? So what's your connection with the BREXIT thread and your overwhelming need to contribute to it ?

And the answer to my question to you about other countries with an FTA without all the obligations to the EU is......?


Of course. Most of them will be from Poland and Germany. A typical chain might look like

Fruits Spain > Germany
Fruits and car parts Germany > Czech Republic
Car parts and beer CR > Spain

And all over again. This is what you do. Because it's the most profitable.


Yeah sure....Thousands of people in Dover are having a simultaneous collective illusion of all those hundreds of empty Spanish lorries which pass through Dover and Folkstone every day on their way back to Europe. And all those very specially designed, equipped Dutch lorries which return empty after dropping off flowers in the UK and can't actually load anything for a return journey because of their design.

You Germans are presumably Masters of Exporting to be able to fill all the trucks that leave Germany after dropping off their imports. Well....In fact you are, aren't you...So much so, that you are completely ignoring the EU's own rules for Balance of Trade surpluses, but nobody seems to give a feck about that in Brussels....


Bullshit. Utter, absolute bullshit. But keep riding that horse, everyone knows how companies *love* to make their products more expensive by shoveling money to logistic companies. Makes so much sense.


Humm....Nothing quite so unlikeable as arrogant Germans....Particularly when they've no idea what they're talking about.


Your whole premise regarding effiency and BMW is bullshit.

Let's just accept that it is true (which it isn't) that those 170 lorries leave GB empty. How exactly does BMW profit from that compared to a system where that isn't the case? Because it wouldn't. The consumer paying extra for supply chains like that, ultimately, either makes their cars less competetive (e.g. more expensive) or reduces their margin. Which no sane company will ever accept if there's a better solution. Seriously, please explain for me how BMW would profit there above it's costumers.

But this isn't true anyway. First of all, a wide margin of parts for thoe cars doesn't arrive by lorry in GB, but by Train (and sometimes even by plane). Then, it get's distributed onto lorries and moved toward the plant. Neither of those parts of the supply chain are owned by BMW, but by other companies. None of these companies will just accept empty shipping. As for trains, these will just move other goods back from GB. Yes, there might be some unused capacities mocing back, but no supply chain is 100% effective. As for the lorries inside GB, these are owned by forwarding agents not only being used by BMW; but by multiple companies. You can be 100% sure they, for their own good, will have other costumers and contracts which mean they use ther lorries as effective as possible. Those gitterboxes you talked about are not only standartized for BMW; but for literally everything. We used them in the medium sized builders merchant I worked at as a student, my father has got them at his cement plants, my father in law at his import-export business with China. The notion they are just going empty back to Europe on lorries is stupid.

Also, empty truck returning to spain...lul.
Have you really ever worked in logistics? This is not how this works.


So....

I was actually involved in reviewing the Transportation of inbound components into Oxford seven or eight years years ago with a former colleague who was hopeful of winning the contract. Why do you think I chose it as an example ? You know more about it than me ?

( German owned ) DHL were eventually chosen as the Lead Logisitics Supplier, surprise, surprise, and the inbound Logistics to Oxford were managed from what DHL called the Control Tower in Munich - not even in the UK. To the best of my knowledge, not much has changed since.

http://www.dpdhl.com/en/media_relations/press_releases/2005/bmw_relies_on_dhl_network.html

'Let's just accept that it is true (which it isn't) that those 170 lorries leave GB empty ' No they don't leave the UK empty - they're carrying empty gitterboxes. Sometimes a full load, sometimes just one or two.

How exactly does BMW profit from that compared to a system where that isn't the case?
They'd rather pay the trucking companies to return the empties than to pay their suppliers for new ones for each delivery. If they weren't returning the empty ones, they could then, as you say, try to find loads for returning to their point of origin or some other location.

Because it wouldn't. The consumer paying extra for supply chains like that, ultimately, either makes their cars less competetive (e.g. more expensive) or reduces their margin. Which no sane company will ever accept if there's a better solution. Seriously, please explain for me how BMW would profit there above it's costumers.
BMW ( and Audi and Mecedes ) customers pay top price for their vehicles. They're status symbols. D'you know how often the Daily Hatemail in the UK loves to refer to the fact that some miscreant in the UK has an Audi or BMW ? BMW feed this image of status symbol - their prices are deliberately higher than, say Ford or Vauxhall, to maintain this supposed feeling of superiority of BMW and Audi owners. It's not just in Germany that ' You are what you drive ' So there's plenty of head room in the selling price for any 'more-than-necessary' costs, whether marketing, sponsorships or even expensive supply chains.

But this isn't true anyway. First of all, a wide margin of parts for thoe cars doesn't arrive by lorry in GB, but by Train (and sometimes even by plane)
The contract specified that any parts delivered into the UK by train, had to be collected and shipped to a subsidiary holding depot ( also operated by DHL ) a couple of miles from the Cowley plant from where seperate shuttles delivered to the main plant along with other components which were delivered by truck into the UK and were not needed immediately in the plant. This still exists, but is no longer operated by DHL but yet another, different German Logistics company. How much arrive by train, I've no idea - but the number of 'shuttle ' vehicles at this subsidiary depot was about 7 vehicles. As these carried both components delivered by rail and by truck, then compared to 170 truck arrivals per day, it's fairly safe to assume that the percentage arriving by train was / is not very much.

Talking of rail transport, I'll go off on a bit of a tangent here as well. Those in the UK are probably aware of the fiasco which is the electrification of the GWR railway from London to South Wales. Planned and authorised in 2010, it was supposed to cost about £900 million. Latest estimates show that it will likely cost more than £ 3.5 billion, is about three years late, and only about 85% of the planned electrified mileage will be completed as a cost reducing measure. Network Rail, the culprits, have stated that one of the main reasons for the cost incresae is that their original plan was for electrification to traditional UK standards for rail electrification, but had to be redesigned in line with the EU's Rail Interoperability Programme, which was introduced to permit easier non-stop frieght and passenger rail traffic across mainland European borders. NR also state that there is unlikely to be any increase in direct rail traffic between the UK and Mainland Europe because of the limited availablity of capacity through the Channel Tunnel. Irrespective, the UK apparently had to comply with this directive, which has cost about £1.3 billion ( NR's estimate ) for, essentially, nothing, and, ironically, will prevent any large increase of components shipped to BMW Oxford as the electrification of the line from Didcot to the UK's main Freight Terminal in Daventry ( where these components are delivered to ) will not now be electrified.

Neither of those parts of the supply chain are owned by BMW, but by other companies. None of these companies will just accept empty shipping. You're right for once - they're paid for the round trip, even if they're only carrying a couple of empty gitterboxes on the return jorney.

As for the lorries inside GB, these are owned by forwarding agents not only being used by BMW; but by multiple companies. You can be 100% sure they, for their own good, will have other costumers and contracts which mean they use ther lorries as effective as possible Not just inside the UK. Almost all the 170 trucks each day were / are sub-contracted to DHL from a whole host of small transport companies all round Europe - for the round trip. Even today, DHL operates very few point-to-point trucks of their own - they own or are responsible for operating 000s of trucks for their depot based logistics companies, but not for point-to-point deliveries, which are nearly all sub-contracted in.

Those gitterboxes you talked about are not only standartized for BMW; but for literally everything. We used them in the medium sized builders merchant I worked at as a student, my father has got them at his cement plants, my father in law at his import-export business with China. The notion they are just going empty back to Europe on lorries is stupid. Yeah....Sure....

Also, empty truck returning to spain...lul. Have you really ever worked in logistics? This is not how this works

Like I said - 30+ years, including some involvment with the Mini Plant in Oxford. Yourself ?
 
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The state of politics in this country at the moment... Madness has basicallly taken hold and we've decided to throw ourselves off the cliff in the hope that there's a land of plenty on the rocks beneath.

Not surprising when you look at the polling behind it all.

The very elderly and uneducated working class voters are taking a nationistic swing. My view is that it's in part due to the way that the media covers immigration and the EU, and the political cowardice of those in charge, and part because of austerity and poor economic outcomes outside of London.
 
Have I got this right, the government will publish a plan of action this Monday, 26 June? I thought I've heard it being mentioned on the radio but can't find more info on it.
 
PM Theresa May has told EU leaders any EU citizen living in UK for five years will be given "settled EU status".

The new immigration status would grant them rights to stay in the UK and get health, education and other benefits after Brexit.

Tell me I'm reading this wrong. What the feck?
 
PM Theresa May has told EU leaders any EU citizen living in UK for five years will be given "settled EU status".

The new immigration status would grant them rights to stay in the UK and get health, education and other benefits after Brexit.

Tell me I'm reading this wrong. What the feck?

Seems like the BBCs stub article I've quoted here is wrong. What they're agreeing to is to allow EU citizens to stay and claim the permanent residence status after 5 years. I.e. what already happens. Not what the BBC implied which is those here for less than 5 years will be booted out.
 
Seems like the BBCs stub article I've quoted here is wrong. What they're agreeing to is to allow EU citizens to stay and claim the permanent residence status after 5 years. I.e. what already happens. Not what the BBC implied which is those here for less than 5 years will be booted out.

May unveils offer on EU citizens

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Image copyrightGETTY IMAGES
EU citizens who have lived in the UK for five years could get equal rights to UK nationals for good, under proposals unveiled by PM Theresa May.

A new "settled EU" immigration status would grant them rights to stay in the UK and access health, education and other benefits after Brexit.

But Theresa May said proposals would be adopted only if the same rights were granted to UK citizens in EU states.

The plans were put forward at a European Council summit in Brussels.

Those arriving after the cut-off date but before the date of Brexit in March 2019 would have a "grace period" - expected to be two years - to regularise their immigration status, with a view to later seeking settled status.

BBC political editor Laura Kuenssberg said Theresa May had told EU leaders that the UK did not want any current resident to have to leave, nor to split families up.

She said the deal would provide certainty to three million people who have "built families, lives and careers and contributed so much to our society".
 
She says that their rights will upheld by our highly respected courts. Weren't they the enemies of the people ?
 
Took a quick look at the DM to see their take on it and saw Ladies Day at Ascot. Hyphenated hockey sticks, what's become of the world ?
 
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Lol, top comment on the Daily Mail's EU citizens article:

'We don't want them here, immigration is the reason we voted out!!!!'

with 2.3k likes and 1.3 dislikes. And then people say EU citizens sometimes (and more and more often nowadays) feel unwelcome in this country...
 
Lol, top comment on the Daily Mail's EU citizens article:

'We don't want them here, immigration is the reason we voted out!!!!'

with 2.3k likes and 1.3 dislikes. And then people say EU citizens sometimes (and more and more often nowadays) feel unwelcome in this country...
Immigration is the reason they voted out :(

(mostly)
 
But Theresa May said proposals would be adopted only if the same rights were granted to UK citizens in EU states.

Fecking dishonest joke of a woman, the EU offer has already been made and is far more generous than the conditional bollocks she's offering.