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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


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No. It's about recognising us as a friend and ally. You are just an idiot.

You can be an ally and a friend without giving a trade deal. The US-EU trade deal is very rudimentary compared to full blown EU membership (or its equivalent)
 
Oh dear

The second biggest contributor- that is something that the UK made absolutely clear it doesn't want to remain for long

After a failed attempt to seek reform.

You obviously don't remember that Cameron always talked about Britain prospering in a REFORMED EU, not the EU as it is. Most EU member states understand that the EU has to be reformed, but it refuses to be.

one of the biggest customers- it subjective. The EU is not the UK. Its a union of countries each armed with a veto rather then simply England with other minor regions tagging around. That's quite significant. For example Malta has a trade deficit with the UK and doesn't give a feck about how much prosecco the UK customers buy from Italy. What they do care about is that Brexit is good for them because businesses are leaving the UK and moving to Malta. On the other hand 47% of the UK business is linked to Europe. What happens if that 47% is heavily impeded because of tariffs?

Tariffs affect sellers. LOL

Each 27 nations has different agendas and the UK will have to satisfy all (or most) of them.

Explain your point.

one of the biggest European militaries- the only real treat is Europe is Russia. If Russia attack then the EU will be wiped out irrespective of the UK involvement or not. We will probably do what we always did in the past century or so. ie we wait for the US to bail us out. There a military pact for that and its called NATO

The US didn't bail us out. They joined with us against an evil regime. We spearheaded important strategic victories in WWII without direct US involvement, while suffering civilian losses for the sake of the war effort.
Can't believe you see it as the US bailing us out. Today we could keep Russia at bay when when combined with the French and Italian military, unless nukes were involved of course, which wouldn't happen.

one of the world's best and most respected intelligence service.- that's true. However would really want to dick around with that? What happens if it comes out that a terrorist attack on UK turf could be avoided but wasnt simply because TM refused cooperation with the EU intelligence?

Intel costs, but we would not think twice about cooperating with out European friends, and this shows how much we need each other. Yes?


Irrelevant is not the right word. Not top priority is more appropriate. The UK is at the end of the US trade deal queue

According to Obama.

and will probably be at the EU queue too. A continent can live without the co-operation of 1 country but can a country live without the cooperation of the very continent it is part off. Trump toyed with the idea (ie destroying NAFTA) and he made a massive U-TURN. We're talking of the US here not the UK

Lets not get off track here. We're talking about how brexit will affect our relationship with the EU.
 
No. It's about recognising us as a friend and ally. You are just an idiot.

Works both ways doesn't it. From a European perspective the Europeans are puzzled why the Brits don't seem to feel part of Europe and often seem hostile & ignorant towards Europe. The Europeans also don't understand why the Brits seem to think the Europeans are trying (as one poster put it) shaft the U.K.
The reality is that the Europeans think it's a crying shame that the U.K. has opted out of the EU, not because of economic reasons but because they see Britain as a valuable part of Europe. The Brits are actually popular over on the continent.
 
Yes

David Davies stated that we would pay everything we were required to pay by law, and that we had not yet been given a breakdown of what we owe.

Excellent reply.....' Just open the rule book and point to where it says Leavers must pay to leave '

Thanks....Not reported down here - other more important things going on !
 
Works both ways doesn't it. From a European perspective the Europeans are puzzled why the Brits don't seem to feel part of Europe and often seem hostile & ignorant towards Europe. The Europeans also don't understand why the Brits seem to think the Europeans are trying (as one poster put it) shaft the U.K.
The reality is that the Europeans think it's a crying shame that the U.K. has opted out of the EU, not because of economic reasons but because they see Britain as a valuable part of Europe. The Brits are actually popular over on the continent.

The Brits do not have a problem with Europeans. Its the EU we have a problem with. The political union.
 
When the EU says that the UK can't be allowed to make a success of Brexit for example. I can understand that if it means getting various advantages without out paying very much into the EU but the success or otherwise of the decision to leave isn't in the EU's gift.
Whey, hold on, a reasonable opinion in this thread! You won't last long in here with such reason and logic.
 
Whey, hold on, a reasonable opinion in this thread! You won't last long in here with such reason and logic.

I forget, are you still doing your tiresome 'I voted Remain but believe every Leave bit of nonsense going' spiel or was that another poster?
 
The Brits do not have a problem with Europeans. Its the EU we have a problem with. The political union.

Most Europeans have issues with a political union. However, most Europeans realise it's a necessary evil in order to remain competitive in an ever more competitive World, in order to keep the peace in Europe, to protect the rights of its citizens and enable Europe to maintain it's welfare.
 
Whey, hold on, a reasonable opinion in this thread! You won't last long in here with such reason and logic.

It's twisting what was actually meant by by Britain can't make a succes of Brexit. What was actually meant is that Britain can't have all the benefits of being in the EU without being a member state. No one has ever said they don't want Britain to be successful out of the EU.
 
It's twisting what was actually meant by by Britain can't make a succes of Brexit. What was actually meant is that Britain can't have all the benefits of being in the EU without being a member state. No one has ever said they don't want Britain to be successful out of the EU.

I think everyone knows this, nobody has ever said this as far as I know. It's my view a deal will be done. We won't be taxing BMW's, VW's, Audis's etc 10% in the future, and they won't be taxing our smaller $number of exports into the EU.
 
Works both ways doesn't it. From a European perspective the Europeans are puzzled why the Brits don't seem to feel part of Europe and often seem hostile & ignorant towards Europe. The Europeans also don't understand why the Brits seem to think the Europeans are trying (as one poster put it) shaft the U.K.
The reality is that the Europeans think it's a crying shame that the U.K. has opted out of the EU, not because of economic reasons but because they see Britain as a valuable part of Europe. The Brits are actually popular over on the continent.
I have adressed this at work, the europens now know who junk and his buddies are, they are starting to see my point.

Basically they did not take an interest in the eu until i made them aware.
 
It's twisting what was actually meant by by Britain can't make a succes of Brexit. What was actually meant is that Britain can't have all the benefits of being in the EU without being a member state. No one has ever said they don't want Britain to be successful out of the EU.

I might have a bad memory about this but I'm pretty sure this thread is, in fact, full of such comments.
 
I have adressed this at work, the europens now know who junk and his buddies are, they are starting to see my point.

Basically they did not take an interest in the eu until i made them aware.

With you as their news source I'm sure they are getting a fair representation of the trurth
 
Britain is going to threaten the EU with its big military? With hold information that could stop terrorism? A lot to be proud of right there

That would be our military, who thanks to Tory cutbacks, comprises an army that now numbers just 89,000 active servicemen, and you could therefore fit our entire army inside wembley stadium, and a navy whose flagship is now officially designated as a drydock because it is immobile. Not to mention an airforce that can only ever put half its small number of airplanes up in the air because the other half are being cannibalized to keep them flying.
 
Today we could keep Russia at bay when when combined with the French and Italian military, unless nukes were involved of course, which wouldn't happen.

No we couldn't. The combined military strength of the EU might be able to, but just France, UK and Italy would have no chance. Russia has an army of 845,000 active members. UK, France and Italy combined have only 567,350. Russia also have far larger reserve and paramilitary forces. Then look at airforce, Russia at 1900, Uk at 222, France 306, Italy 320. Navy might be better, but frankly in a land war with Russia it's not the number one concern. Russia also has a huge missile capability, and absolutely top class AA technology. Holding back Russia needs either the whole EU or the US on board.

Britain has an excellent modern military, but its very small. Put us up against another small country and we'll be absolutely fine. Put us up against a current or former superpower and we'd be fecked. So obviously being British, just at the point where the world is getting very hot again, we decide to leave our partnership with our neighbouring superpower union. Genius..
 
So obviously being British, just at the point where the world is getting very hot again, we decide to leave our partnership with our neighbouring superpower union. Genius..

:lol:

You made many good points in the white culture/poverty thread yesterday, but that is just too silly.
 
That was an interesting read but the Greece's situation and the UK's are more than a little different.
More than a little the same from what we've heard so far.

May's problem is that she won't be negotiating with the other heads of state on any of the divorce proceedings. She's going to be going through the bureaucratic beast.
 
More than a little the same from what we've heard so far.

May's problem is that she won't be negotiating with the other heads of state on any of the divorce proceedings. She's going to be going through the bureaucratic beast.

You see that's the problem of the article. She will negotiate with the heads of state but through their negotiating beast. That's why Barnier made the round of the 27 member states, they have a now a common stance that will be presented by their men.
 
:lol:

You made many good points in the white culture/poverty thread yesterday, but that is just too silly.

I'm talking economically, which is the major measure of power. Depending on which figures you use, the EU is either the largest GDP on earth, or a close second behind America. The political union intends to move closer towards integration, including militarily in the face of a resurgent and aggressive Russia. I can totally understand people resisting the idea of seeing the EU as a superpower or potential superpower as the countries within are still sovereign, and their militaries independent. It's certainly not laughable to be talking in those terms though. The wealth and potential power of Europe working as a union is considerable, and may prove an extremely important counterweight to US-Russian-Chinese power in future.
 
More than a little the same from what we've heard so far.

May's problem is that she won't be negotiating with the other heads of state on any of the divorce proceedings. She's going to be going through the bureaucratic beast.

Greece had nothing to offer the EU whatsoever, except their democratic mandate.

The premise of the article is that May believes that a electoral mandate will strengthen her hand at the negotiating table. Do you really believe that she thinks that or that the Tories are using that line to win over working class Labour voters to win the domestic election?
 
The premise of the article is that May believes that a electoral mandate will strengthen her hand at the negotiating table. Do you really believe that she thinks that or that the Tories are using that line to win over working class Labour voters to win this election?
Eh? I mean, that's the opening paragraph, but after that it's more his experience with trying to negotiate with the EU
 
Eh? I mean, that's the opening paragraph, but after that it's more his experience with trying to negotiate with the EU

As I said, it is an interesting article that gives some indication of the difficulties that lay ahead. The government have acknowledged that one of the biggest stumbling blocks will be dealing with the European parliament so I highly doubt that the content of that article is something they are not aware of.

My second point is that Greece's situation was completely different. The balance of power is with the EU in our negotiations but no trade deal means not insignificant harm to EU nations economically.

What were Greece offering to give any encouragement to being listened to, apart from a democratic mandate?
 
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Greece was also hamstrung by the unwillingness of its people to make the ultimate break. When it came down to it, Brussels could be safe in the belief that Grexit wouldn't occur. Britain, on the other hand, has already voted to leave. I also happen to think that a No Deal is a possibility, as undesirable as it may seem. An insistence that we pay 100bn will certainly limit the scope and pogress of any agreement.


I'm talking economically, which is the major measure of power. Depending on which figures you use, the EU is either the largest GDP on earth, or a close second behind America. The political union intends to move closer towards integration, including militarily in the face of a resurgent and aggressive Russia. I can totally understand people resisting the idea of seeing the EU as a superpower or potential superpower as the countries within are still sovereign, and their militaries independent. It's certainly not laughable to be talking in those terms though. The wealth and potential power of Europe working as a union is considerable, and may prove an extremely important counterweight to US-Russian-Chinese power in future.

Economically, sure, although it's a rather patchy and relatively stagnant one in recent years. Militarily it is still quite a way distant, as such would require a significant cultural and political shift in numerous continental nations. Diplomatically there exist the potential, yet it often depends on the issue at hand.
 
Greece was also hamstrung by the unwillingness of its people to make the ultimate break. When it came down to it, Brussels could be safe in the belief that Grexit wouldn't occur. Britain, on the other hand, has already voted to leave. I also happen to think that a No Deal is a possibility, as undesirable as it may seem. An insistence that we pay 100bn will certainly limit the scope and progress of any agreement

Indeed. I think those that said, we should not use Article 50, but instead negotiate for a new treaty, were very wise
 
Greece was also hamstrung by the unwillingness of its people to make the ultimate break. When it came down to it, Brussels could be safe in the belief that Grexit wouldn't occur. Britain, on the other hand, has already voted to leave. I also happen to think that a No Deal is a possibility, as undesirable as it may seem. An insistence that we pay 100bn will certainly limit the scope and pogress of any agreement.

I am starting to think that no deal is a real possibility now. The tactics employed by the EU so far is making it politically possible in the UK too which is worrying. The Tories might be able to survive a hard Brexit.
 
Economically, sure, although it's a rather patchy and relatively stagnant one in recent years.

The EU's growth is slow and steady, without the big fluctuations you see elsewhere. In the last two years for example the EU growth rate has moved between 1.8 and 2.2%. In the US that rate has fluctuated between 0.7 and 3.5%. People throw out terms like 'stagnant' all the time, as part of an anti-EU narrative. Europe is an economic powerhouse, and one of the two biggest on the planet.

Militarily it is still quite a way distant, as such would require a significant cultural and political shift in numerous continental nations. Diplomatically there exist the potential, yet it often depends on the issue at hand.

One of the biggest obstacles was the UK. Guess what..
 
I am starting to think that no deal is a real possibility now. The tactics employed by the EU so far is making it politically possible in the UK too which is worrying. The Tories might be able to survive a hard Brexit.
Indeed. For a deal to take place, someone is going to have to move a long way from their current position.

On social care for EU citizens, we are closer than the recent news coverage suggests.

Fairness demands that we deal with another issue as soon as possible too. We want to guarantee the rights of EU citizens who are already living in Britain, and the rights of British nationals in other member states, as early as we can.

I have told other EU leaders that we could give people the certainty they want straight away, and reach such a deal now.

Many of them favour such an agreement – 1 or 2 others do not – but I want everyone to know that it remains an important priority for Britain – and for many other member states – to resolve this challenge as soon as possible. Because it is the right and fair thing to do.
https://www.gov.uk/government/speec...ating-objectives-for-exiting-the-eu-pm-speech


But - on the exit fee, we are a long way off, and possibly that the EU courts will still have some sway over certain maters, also.

Paragraphs 8 to 16 repay close attention — they give details of what is meant by an “orderly” withdrawal. These include a “single financial settlement” but also the rights of citizens, contracts that have been entered into, the Irish border, UK bases in Cyprus, what happens to international agreements, the smooth relocation of UK-based EU agencies, and the continued jurisdiction of the Court of Justice of the European Union over certain matters. None of these are trivial points: no serious person could maintain that they do not need an agreement.
https://www.ft.com/content/bd6f33c8-3e69-3476-8940-79a2b982afc4
 
Indeed. For a deal to take place, someone is going to have to move a long way from their current position.

On social care for EU citizens, we are closer than the recent news coverage suggests.


https://www.gov.uk/government/speec...ating-objectives-for-exiting-the-eu-pm-speech


But - on the exit fee, we are a long way off, and possibly that the EU courts will still have some sway over certain maters, also.


https://www.ft.com/content/bd6f33c8-3e69-3476-8940-79a2b982afc4

I read recently that there's actually an absolute chasm between the two positions on citizens rights. The EU means one thing, and the UK another. So whilst they're both saying the same thing, it's far from being easy to resolve.

From the FAZ report over the weekend:

“For May it is no problem – EU citizens should be treated simply according to British law as other third-country nationals,” FAZ said, adding this was “a big problem for Juncker”.

The article said: “After all, they now enjoy many special rights which should be maintained as far as possible. There are tricky questions to be solved, not just on the right of residence. Health insurance, for example.”