Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

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Rams said:
The Germans are arrogant. The English are arrogant AND ignorant!

I'm English btw.
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Only the English ? Not the Scots, the Welsh and the Northern Irish ?

Paul the Wolf said:
Currently watching yesterday's French presidential debate - still 45 minutes to go but something that would appeal to @Stanley Road - Le Pen says the UK are doing wonderfully well since Brexit and guess what the other 4 said - "They haven't left yet!!" :)
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And she also said ( in fact the first thing that she said ) was that she wanted to be the President of France - not Frau Fatarse's deputy.
 
Full bodied red said:
Only the English ? Not the Scots, the Welsh and the Northern Irish ?



And she also said ( in fact the first thing that she said ) was that she wanted to be the President of France - not Frau Fatarse's deputy.
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Yes but if she does become President of France we may as well all give up now, a hopeless woman
 
Classical Mechanic said:
No, what I mean is that the short term effects were predicted by every man and his dog in the field of economics to be far worse than they have proven to be. That is why people have become sceptical of the 'doomongers' economic predictions on the matter.

Personally I expect a significant economic downturn in the next 2-5 years but find the predictions that the U.K. will been doomed long term and will have to go back to the EU cap in hand one day to be fanciful.

I am also hopeful that we will come away with a reasonable agreement with the EU by the end of the two years but worry that politics could scupper that.
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The economic effects caused by the Brexit vote so far can be considered worse than predicted because we're still in the EU and have already suffered for considering leaving.

Inflation up to 2.3% which is beyond Bank's 2% forecasted target. It was 0.5% before the vote. Sharp increase in less than 8 months. Most experts believe that it will go beyond 3% this coming year.

What is holding most things slightly together is a hope of a similar deal and if that doesn't happen then I'd say all those nightmares scenarios of doom and gloom that were predicted before the vote will look quite rosy in comparison to what will actually happen.
 
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Ultimate Grib said:
The economic effects caused by the Brexit vote so far can be considered worse than predicted because we're still in the EU and have already suffered for considering leaving.

Inflation up to 2.3% which is beyond Bank's 2% forecasted target. It was 0.5% before the vote. Sharp increase in less than 8 months. Most experts believe that it will go beyond 3% this coming year.

What is holding most things slightly together is a hope of a similar deal and if that doesn't happen then I'd say all those nightmares scenarios of doom and gloom that were predicted before the vote will look quite rosy in comparison to what will actually happen.
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https://www.ft.com/content/1a9dac92-d7da-11e6-944b-e7eb37a6aa8e

One of hundreds of articles that I could link to back up what I said.

The figures will feed into the debate about the strength of the British economy since the referendum on membership of the EU. Most data suggest that increased uncertainty has not led to a slowdown.
 
Classical Mechanic said:
https://www.ft.com/content/1a9dac92-d7da-11e6-944b-e7eb37a6aa8e

One of hundreds of articles that I could link to back up what I said.

The figures will feed into the debate about the strength of the British economy since the referendum on membership of the EU. Most data suggest that increased uncertainty has not led to a slowdown.
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An lot of the resilience the economy has shown post the brexit vote is linked to consumer spending which will slow due to rising inflation and stagnating wages.

The key thing in that article is the final two paragraphs which tie in with what I said that we're only in the uncertainty phase and there is clearly an impact. Once we leave and we know what is happening it will get much much worse if we don't get a good deal with the no deal option touted by May being catastrophic.
 
Ultimate Grib said:
An lot of the resilience the economy has shown post the brexit vote is linked to consumer spending which will slow due to rising inflation and stagnating wages.

The key thing in that article is the final two paragraphs which tie in with what I said that we're only in the uncertainty phase and there is clearly an impact. Once we leave and we know what is happening it will get much much worse if we don't get a good deal with the no deal option touted by May being catastrophic.
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Quite, with borrowing reaching record levels and inflation rising, next step, increased interest rates, which means higher repayments, this will hit people more than the cost of their shopping basket.
 
Ultimate Grib said:
An lot of the resilience the economy has shown post the brexit vote is linked to consumer spending which will slow due to rising inflation and stagnating wages.

The key thing in that article is the final two paragraphs which tie in with what I said that we're only in the uncertainty phase and there is clearly an impact. Once we leave and we know what is happening it will get much much worse if we don't get a good deal with the no deal option touted by May being catastrophic.
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My whole point was about the initial impact of Brexit being erroneously forecast by numerous experts. I didn't reference what you could call the second phase of Brexit or what you could call the third phase of Brexit - BR-EXIT.
 
Classical Mechanic said:
My whole point was about the initial impact of Brexit being erroneously forecast by numerous experts. I didn't reference what you could call the second phase of Brexit or what you could call the third phase of Brexit - BR-EXIT.
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This is a genuine question and I may well have missed it but did a large bloc of people really claim that our economy would collapse as soon as we voted to leave?

Literally nothing has changed. Nothing will change when we trigger article 50 either. We'll still be trading with the EU, under the same rules, sdame regulations etc.

Surely we need to actually wait until we leave and see what the deal looks like (a reasonable deal or some crazys' dreams of commonwealth, anglophile bloc, WTO rules trade deal etc) before we can say what impact Brexit will have on the economy?
 
africanspur said:
This is a genuine question and I may well have missed it but did a large bloc of people really claim that our economy would collapse as soon as we voted to leave?

Literally nothing has changed. Nothing will change when we trigger article 50 either. We'll still be trading with the EU, under the same rules, sdame regulations etc.

Surely we need to actually wait until we leave and see what the deal looks like (a reasonable deal or some crazys' dreams of commonwealth, anglophile bloc, WTO rules trade deal etc) before we can say what impact Brexit will have on the economy?
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Economists did, yes.

In laymen’s terms: Economists differentiated between short-term impact and long term consequences and analyzed them separately.

To analyze the short-term impact, they used one of their regression models and added a massive shock (uncertainty index spike for 2 years). Unsurprisingly these models tell you, that the economy goes down the tubes. It is essentially their way of arguing that everyone would just panic. Consumer stop consuming; producers stop investing; this kind of stuff. This just didn’t happen.

There are different ways to look at the long-term consequences, but they used some sort of gravity model. That tries to take into account how the increasing costs of trade in various sectors impact the economy, while comparing it with a counterfactual. These studies usually give you a forecast like “in 2030, the UK economy will have had (accumulated) ~10% less GDP growth compared to a situation where the UK would have stayed in the EU”.
Whats quite interesting is to look what these models tell you in other circumstances. For example: Gravity models were used in the context of TPIP, trying to forecast what this would do to GDP growth in the US and the EU. The result was rather sobering, because it essentially said, that it would have a negligible/insignificant impact with (I forgot the number but it was something like 0,005% of additional GDP).

Having read various technical analysis about Brexit I tend to agree with the following assessment:
Yes, there will be a bit short-term disruption and some risks about the financial industry, but the crucial factor (ironically:lol:) might be the new immigration regime. Currently migration might help the UK much more than I initially thought and much more than it helps other countries (when the measurement is both GDP and GDPperCapita growth). Free migration really seems to be what makes the major difference. So when the UK government accepts a migration regime, that accommodates the needs of the economy, Brexit won’t change a lot (but the UK will also not reduced migration…). If May is hell-bend on reducing absolute numbers in a significant way, the impact might be quite substantial. I don’t want to put a number on it, but that could be surprisingly brutal.
 
africanspur said:
This is a genuine question and I may well have missed it but did a large bloc of people really claim that our economy would collapse as soon as we voted to leave?

Literally nothing has changed. Nothing will change when we trigger article 50 either. We'll still be trading with the EU, under the same rules, sdame regulations etc.

Surely we need to actually wait until we leave and see what the deal looks like (a reasonable deal or some crazys' dreams of commonwealth, anglophile bloc, WTO rules trade deal etc) before we can say what impact Brexit will have on the economy?
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You did miss it. The Bank of England predicted it, the EU commission predicted it and numerous other bodies and economists.

This is from the FT interviewing prominent economists about Brexit predictions in January 2017.

https://www.ft.com/content/c2b0359e-d0dc-11e6-b06b-680c49b4b4c0

Some of the responses on the initial predictions.

Clearly most of the short term forecasts were too pessimistic and the immediate shock has been much smaller than expected.

While I got the short-term Brexit impact badly wrong, I continue to think that the long-term impact of Brexit will have a modest negative impact on the LEVEL of income

We are more optimistic than we were about the short-term prospects. Our views of the medium- to long-term effects of leaving the EU have changed little.

Last year I said that Brexit was a huge long-term supply side opportunity for the UK. But I did expect a temporary slowdown in transition. The resilience of the economy has surprised me,

I have been encouraged by the resilience of the economic data in the aftermath of the referendum. I had expected a much worse outcome, especially given the initial dive in survey indicators.

This point really wants me to use the term 'remoaners'. It frustrates me when people ignore accuracy and truth just because it doesn't fit with their personal ideological agenda.

PedroMendez said:
Yes, there will be a bit short-term disruption and some risks about the financial industry, but the crucial factor (ironically:lol:) might be the new immigration regime. Currently migration might help the UK much more than I initially thought and much more than it helps other countries (when the measurement is both GDP and GDPperCapita growth). Free migration really seems to be what makes the major difference. So when the UK government accepts a migration regime, that accommodates the needs of the economy, Brexit won’t change a lot (but the UK will also not reduced migration…). If May is hell-bend on reducing absolute numbers in a significant way, the impact might be quite substantial. I don’t want to put a number on it, but that could be surprisingly brutal.
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I think politically a points or necessity based immigration system will wash. It is what UKIP's manifesto in the last general election ran on. UKIP accepted that immigration had to continue but the issue was the control of borders coming from Westminster and not Brussels.

The Tories are already preparing the Brexit numpties for the reality

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...ramatically-fall-after-brexit-says-amber-rudd

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...y-open-immigration-years-latest-a7592616.html
 
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Classical Mechanic said:
My whole point was about the initial impact of Brexit being erroneously forecast by numerous experts. I didn't reference what you could call the second phase of Brexit or what you could call the third phase of Brexit - BR-EXIT.
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Again the models were based on us falling off a cliff as in we have the referendum and we're out all ties cut. They did not account for this period that we are in now. The models can very much become wholly true if we do end up with no deal.

So in a way we're in purgatory and whether we're going to heaven or hell is going to depend on the deal we can achieve.
 
Ultimate Grib said:
Again the models were based on us falling off a cliff as in we have the referendum and we're out all ties cut.
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Come on, do you not think the EU commission know how leaving the EU works?

Why would economists take the blame for these erroneous predictions if they were due to factors out of their hands?

From FT survey.

Clearly most of the short term forecasts were too pessimistic and the immediate shock has been much smaller than expected.

While I got the short-term Brexit impact badly wrong, I continue to think that the long-term impact of Brexit will have a modest negative impact on the LEVEL of income.


 
Ultimate Grib said:
Again the models were based on us falling off a cliff as in we have the referendum and we're out all ties cut. They did not account for this period that we are in now. The models can very much become wholly true if we do end up with no deal.

So in a way we're in purgatory and whether we're going to heaven or hell is going to depend on the deal we can achieve.
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that is just not true.
1: Read these papers
2: ???
3: Profit!
 
Just a couple of unrelated facts:

- 6,1% of the working age population in the UK is from other parts of the EU. 10,8% from the rest of the world; overall 3,3m EU nationals live in Britain, while 5,4 migrants from the rest of the world.

- When it comes to individual countries of migrants, Poland and India are leading by quite some distance, followed by Pakistan, Ireland, Germany, Romania and Bangladesh.

- Germany, Norway, Ireland, Belgium, Austria, Switzerland all have higher % shares of EU foreigners as part of their working-age population. (Switzerland has 18,6% from the EU and 14,8% from the rest of the world!)

- The UK and Norway are the only two countries in the EU28, where foreigners are much more likely to be employed compared to the native population.

- Spain > Ireland > France > Germany > Italy > Netherlands > Cyprus > Poland are the countries with most UK migrants
 
Classical Mechanic said:
Come on, do you not think the EU commission know how leaving the EU works?

Why would economists take the blame for these erroneous predictions if they were due to factors out of their hands?

From FT survey.

Clearly most of the short term forecasts were too pessimistic and the immediate shock has been much smaller than expected.

While I got the short-term Brexit impact badly wrong, I continue to think that the long-term impact of Brexit will have a modest negative impact on the LEVEL of income.
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Find me one prediction/calculation/model that talks about the period between the vote and actually leaving. I can assure you every single one of them took into consideration actually leaving the EU not preparing to leave.

PedroMendez said:
that is just not true.
1: Read these papers
2: ???
3: Profit!
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What?
 
PedroMendez said:
Just a couple of unrelated facts:

- 6,1% of the working age population in the UK is from other parts of the EU. 10,8% from the rest of the world; overall 3,3m EU nationals live in Britain, while 5,4 migrants from the rest of the world.

- When it comes to individual countries of migrants, Poland and India are leading by quite some distance, followed by Pakistan, Ireland, Germany, Romania and Bangladesh.

- Germany, Norway, Ireland, Belgium, Austria, Switzerland all have higher % shares of EU foreigners as part of their working-age population. (Switzerland has 18,6% from the EU and 14,8% from the rest of the world!)

- The UK and Norway are the only two countries in the EU28, where foreigners are much more likely to be employed compared to the native population.

- Spain > Ireland > France > Germany > Italy > Netherlands > Cyprus > Poland are the countries with most UK migrants
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Norway are not in the EU28 - so the UK are the only one, wonder where the fault lies.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Norway are not in the EU28 - so the UK are the only one, wonder where the fault lies.
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true. I wanted to include both Norway and Switzerland, because they are part of the single market. Looking at their migrant population, it puts the notion to rest that being outside the EU but in the single market would be a viable option for people who want less migrants.


My first guess would be that migrants are on average more qualified than the domestic population in these two countries.
 
PedroMendez said:
true. I wanted to include both Norway and Switzerland, because they are part of the single market. Looking at their migrant population, it puts the notion to rest that being outside the EU but in the single market would be a viable option for people who want less migrants.


My first guess would be that migrants are on average more qualified than the domestic population in these two countries.
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Ok fair enough

Another train of thought is that what you hear from the UK is people complaining that immigrants are accepting lower wages than they will - but if that is the case why does this not happen in many more countries.
 
PedroMendez said:
true. I wanted to include both Norway and Switzerland, because they are part of the single market. Looking at their migrant population, it puts the notion to rest that being outside the EU but in the single market would be a viable option for people who want less migrants.


My first guess would be that migrants are on average more qualified than the domestic population in these two countries.
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The Swiss don't have financial services passporting rights, from what I seem to remember though?
 
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:lol:
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Maybe he will tried for treason and hung drawn and quartered at the Tower - but refused a visa by the country he plans to move to first for complete humiliation
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Given that the country he's likely to move to is America, that seems unlikely unfortunately.
 
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