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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


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I think I've already explained and corrected what I first said - I answered to Wibbles's comment ' Most countries would love to be in ' by saying that Turkey, Morocco and Ukraine are the three countries that most want(ed) to join the EU; the problems that each would bring if this happened; and that I didn't think that thay would be joining the EU too soon.

If you guys know through inside knowledge that they won't be joining, then my comment is inaccurate as you say.

If you guys think they won't be joining, then my own thoughts that they will probably join at some point in the future is no more accurate or inaccurate than yours.

Undodged ??

You don't need inside knowledge to realise Morocco will never join the EU. Ukraine yes. Turkey a very long shot.

Morocco however is the only North African country not to go through revolution with the Arab Spring. I would suggest the economic development aided by the EU programmes you listed has a lot to do with it.
 
I'm getting an anti muslim feeling from the pro eu group here, thought that was reserved for anti eu thugs

The anti muslim feeling exist in the anti eu lot, us pro eu people recognise this so surmise it's unrealistic to believe Morocco or Turkey would ever join the EU.
 
Strong rumours that it will happen on Tuesday or Wednesday. Here goes, 18 months of ups & downs.
 
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Ringe, Wolf-Georg, The Irrelevance of Brexit for the European Financial Market (February 5, 2017). Oxford Legal Studies Research Paper No 3/2017. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2902715 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2902715


That might interest you @Jippy

In the end it is just an opinion, but it is useful to read some balanced outlooks.
I didn't read it yet, but the assumption is that the EU27 have a stake in a single financial market with the Brits. I don't think that's the case, because a financial sector feeds off the real economy, with genuine production and services. The City feeds itself very well with the EU27 economies, but Britain has little for the EU27 financial sector to feed off. I've read about suggestions that the main EU member states wanted to shrink the financial sector in the wake of the crisis anyway, but the UK prevented that.

It's not clear whether the EU27 sees Brexit as a chance to shrink the financial sector, or as a chance for Frankfurt, Paris and Amsterdam to grow their financial sectors, but no matter how closely politician0s and the financial sector are connected, there's really no reason to let the City profit from real economic activity on the continent.
 
The City seems to profit from real economic activity whether it's from within the EU or from outside though.
If it can profit from the US to the Far East why can't it from the EU?
 
I didn't read it yet, but the assumption is that the EU27 have a stake in a single financial market with the Brits. I don't think that's the case, because a financial sector feeds off the real economy, with genuine production and services. The City feeds itself very well with the EU27 economies, but Britain has little for the EU27 financial sector to feed off. I've read about suggestions that the main EU member states wanted to shrink the financial sector in the wake of the crisis anyway, but the UK prevented that.

It's not clear whether the EU27 sees Brexit as a chance to shrink the financial sector, or as a chance for Frankfurt, Paris and Amsterdam to grow their financial sectors, but no matter how closely politician0s and the financial sector are connected, there's really no reason to let the City profit from real economic activity on the continent.
Read the article.

Basically it says not much will change re brexit. No North Korea

Sorry for the bad news.
 
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Israel would be fast-tracked if it ever wished (unlikely) to join the EU. Ukraine, Serbia just a matter of time. Morrocco and Turkey, not a chance.
 
Looking painfully obvious the EU's goal in all this is to have us rejoin in the near anyway. Which we probably will.
 
Read the article.

Basically it says not much will change re brexit.
I noticed that, and it's very reasonable within the assumption that a huge financial sector is seen by all players as an asset.
No North Korea

Sorry for the bad news.
I forgot, the only alternative for socialism for the banks is communism of course.
 
Looking painfully obvious the EU's goal in all this is to have us rejoin in the near anyway. Which we probably will.

The millennials will be looking to reverse the decision in 15/20 years time. The majority of us voted to remain. You'll then have a combination of the general feeling that 1. things were better when we were younger and that's because we were in the EU and 2. some people always want a change to the system they live in in the hope it will improve their situation.
 

Every article i read these days just leaves me more and depressed on the issue. Mainly because despite all best intentions of such policy groups, nobody is listening. Our goverment is fixated solely on implementing the vision of brexiteers and avoiding their wrath, a largey racist misinformed bunch who care for no one.

We may as well have Trump in charge i see very little difference these days.
 
But the German car manufacturers...
 
Calm down, lads. Theresa will laugh at Jeremy during PM's Questions and everything will be okay again. We don't need a coherent plan, we just need zingers.
 
Officially it's two years but I think the EU will try to force the issue because they will have their own timetable - EU elections etc.
Any agreement has to be ratified in the 2 years... so yeah I suspect somewhere between 12-18 months is all the time there is to actually negotiate before it has to go I front of all the other eu parliaments and presumably leave enough time for it to be rejected by a couple of parliaments and renegotiated (like the Canadian deal falling down in one region of belgium)
 
But the German car manufacturers...

You know the best part about them? With which manufacturer shall the British replace them? :D
Lincoln? Cadillac? :lol:
Maybe Jaguar, but they will have their very own problems if tariffs would really be introduced, as hey are inclusively producing in Britian and suddenly, all of their (already not really popular) cars would get more expensive everywhere outside of their home market.
They might sell a few cars less, but overall, the British market just isn't anywhere near important enough for that to make a difference.
 
probably the best article i have read so far on Brexit, it doesn't cover all the problems that are facing the UK economy and seems to contradict itself at times for example saying companies need to invest in jobs then going on to say they need to invest in automation with out recognising that automation is causing its own economic challenges.

but over all i think the article shares my views, that most Brexiters and Remain campaigners have completely missed the point through all this, the British economy is slowly leaving more and more people behind and needs a complete re-think, leaving the EU alone wont achieve this and if anything will make it harder, but on the flip side it is clear that companies are taking advantage of the way the EU works which is adding to economic problems to large areas of society, this needs to be addressed, but unfortunately their is no desire to do this from within the EU, which would make having radical reforms to the British economy problematic to impossible while remaining in the current EU system.

But instead of having this debate both in the country and with our EU partners about what needs to happen to our economy to make it fairer, what is the way forward in the changing times of globalisation, automation....... what would be possible while remaining in the EU, what we wouldn't be able to do while in the EU, where we could compromise, where we couldn't...... instead of having that debate we've had the debate off lets make Lets get our independence back and its all the immigrants fault VS the EU is perfect the way it is and couldn't possibly be causing any problems at all if you don't think so your a rasist....

but still nice to read at least one article that almost gets it.
 
The EU have said several times, it's about 18 months negotiations and about 6 months of ratification by the member states.

Comments from Davis, Fox and Johnson make you realise they have no idea what they're doing. It's divorce negotiations, and seems Uk's stance is we won't pay the bill and won't guarantee EU citizens rights unless we get single market access.
 
The millennials will be looking to reverse the decision in 15/20 years time. The majority of us voted to remain. You'll then have a combination of the general feeling that 1. things were better when we were younger and that's because we were in the EU and 2. some people always want a change to the system they live in in the hope it will improve their situation.
Why even that long? Just need a 2% swing and General Election.
 
What party can you see using a referendum to return to the EU as a campaign promise within the next 15 years?

If we do hard brexit (unlikely imo) then they'll be enough of a shitstorm that Labour would probably win an election on that platform tbf.
 
If we do hard brexit (unlikely imo) then they'll be enough of a shitstorm that Labour would probably win an election on that platform tbf.

I'm not so sure. I think there is a huge number of remain voters who are staunch Tories. Gold collar workers who would rather die before voting in a Labour government.
 
Can you see the current government losing a GE any time soon?
Yes, as soon as Corbyn leaves.

What party can you see using a referendum to return to the EU as a campaign promise within the next 15 years?
Lib Dems are already going to make the centrepiece of their next GE campaign to stay in the EU, as soon as Corbyn leaves I think Labour will take that mantle. Don't need another referendum, the GE vote alone will be enough.
 
Labour whipped its MPs to vote for article 50, anything Corbyn led isn't going to be sweeping up disaffected remainers.
 
Yes, as soon as Corbyn leaves.

Lib Dems are already going to make the centrepiece of their next GE campaign to stay in the EU, as soon as Corbyn leaves I think Labour will take that mantle. Don't need another referendum, the GE vote alone will be enough.
And who leads this Labour revolution? I've never known people so unable to come up with a replacement for someone they insist is absolutely terrible.