Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

[endless_wheelies]

There's your problem.

He's a dead man walking really.

 

[Ubik]

He's a dead man walking really.

Trouble is his end likely comes after a GE, and that GE also likely results in a Tory majority of 100+.

 

[endless_wheelies]

And who leads this Labour revolution? I've never known people so unable to come up with a replacement for someone they insist is absolutely terrible.

There's few who would challenge him currently due to the unions and core membership being so staunchly behind him but if he vacated the position harmoniously there's a few who you could see putting themselves forward and doing a better job - Clive Lewis, Chuka Umunna, David Miliband, Hilary Benn to name a few.

Trouble is his end likely comes after a GE, and that GE also likely results in a Tory majority of 100+.

At the latest, if the polls don't improve it could be well before then.

 

[Adisa]

Looking painfully obvious the EU's goal in all this is to have us rejoin in the near anyway. Which we probably will.

Said it last year. i doubt we'd spend 20 years outside the EU.

 

[Ubik]

There's few who would challenge him currently due to the unions and core membership being so staunchly behind him but if he vacated the position harmoniously there's a few who you could see putting themselves forward and doing a better job - Clive Lewis, Chuka Umunna, David Miliband, Hilary Benn to name a few.


At the latest, if the polls don't improve it could be well before then.

You underestimate the current membership.

Plus I'm still pretty sure May will call an election before 2020.

 

[Drifter]

Forget Chuka Umunna,David Milliband ect. These are the past and failed many of the traditional labour supporters. If Jeremy ever decides to call it a day, the policies must remain .No going back to blairism . And i like the look of Angela Rayner to continue with re building the Labour Party if Corbyn steps down.

 

[sun_tzu]

You underestimate the current membership.

Plus I'm still pretty sure May will call an election before 2020.

If she was going to call one the logic would be pre article 50 to give her the mandate so to speak
As for now article 50 won't be complete till spring 2019... Then a big giveaway budget in autumn 2019 ready for a spring 2020 election.
I'm surprised she didn't call a snap election when she was elected though... Mandate etc but mainly because I can't see how she wouldn't win a landslide against corbyn

 

[endless_wheelies]

Forget Chuka Umunna,David Milliband ect. These are the past and failed many of the traditional labour supporters. If Jeremy ever decides to call it a day, the policies must remain .No going back to blairism . And i like the look of Angela Rayner to continue with re building the Labour Party if Corbyn steps down.

Why? Why are these policies worth the paper they're written on when they keep you a million miles from the position of being able to enforce them?

 

[Dobba]

There's few who would challenge him currently due to the unions and core membership being so staunchly behind him but if he vacated the position harmoniously there's a few who you could see putting themselves forward and doing a better job - Clive Lewis, Chuka Umunna, David Miliband, Hilary Benn to name a few.

We can end the hopes of this pair quite quickly. Dave would be accurately be branded "The brother deemed less electable than Ed" and every leadership hustings would involve someone in the audience reading the parts of Chilcot that reference Benn by name and asking whether they were why he consistently voted against an investigation into the war.

The other pair would stretch the word 'moderate' to breaking point. But hey, Owen Smith managed to reinvent himself as a born again socialist so I wouldn't put it beyond the PLP to try again.

 

[jackofalltrades]

Maybe the ongoing details of the Brexit deal being made public are what will determine when exactly a GE is called. If the deal's not too bad it would be an easy call, but if the consequences are very bad and clear for all to see, then the scenario changes, maybe radically if UKIP becomes a major force.

 

[sun_tzu]

if UKIP becomes a major force.

Seeming unlikely though given their shambolic stoke campaign and potentially not having the same funding available as before.

 

[jackofalltrades]

Seeming unlikely though given their shambolic stoke campaign and potentially not having the same funding available as before.

True, but I'm thinking 4 years from now and three factors : 1 - the effect of Brexit, which ranges from zero to apocalypse depending who you listen to. The worst of all worlds would be Brexit = economic and political meltdown in the UK and 2 - also Europe. And 3 - the effect of Arron Banks on the UKIP.

Remember Farage's speech to the EU parliament after the referendum "when I first came here demanding we leave, you all laughed. Well, you're not laughing now, are you ?"

We've got 327 pages on the Brexit and its effect on the UK and almost nothing on its effect on Europe. Some people seem to believe that if Europe goes down the pan, then no problem for us, in fact better for us.

The next few years are going to be full of instability and uncertainty in my view, and trying to predict how things will develop from now is fraught with difficulty.

 

[Kentonio]

I'm not so sure. I think there is a huge number of remain voters who are staunch Tories. Gold collar workers who would rather die before voting in a Labour government.

If they shift to the Lib Dems though, a Lib-Lab coalition isn't at all beyond the realms of possibility.

 

[Ubik]

If they shift to the Lib Dems though, a Lib-Lab coalition isn't at all beyond the realms of possibility.

"Vote Lib Dem, get Corbyn" may be something you hear a lot of at the next GE in Tory-Lib Dem marginals.

 

[Dobba]

If they shift to the Lib Dems though, a Lib-Lab coalition isn't at all beyond the realms of possibility.

I think the Tories have first dibs when Farron decides it's time for the Lib Dems to grab their ankles again.

 

[711]

Officially it's two years but I think the EU will try to force the issue because they will have their own timetable - EU elections etc.

If we do hard brexit (unlikely imo) then they'll be enough of a shitstorm that Labour would probably win an election on that platform tbf.

I think differently, that May is the one who will want to speed things up, and that she will indeed go for a hard Brexit. We'll find out the gist of it sooner than people think as well, it's been such a long wait it'll be a bit of a shock when it comes.

Brexit means Brexit eh, how we all laughed.

 

[Smores]

Labour whipped its MPs to vote for article 50, anything Corbyn led isn't going to be sweeping up disaffected remainers.

Not the first time Labour will have voted against the will of its base and expected them to still vote red now is it?

 

[sun_tzu]

I think differently, that May is the one who will want to speed things up, and that she will indeed go for a hard Brexit. We'll find out the gist of it sooner than people think as well, it's been such a long wait it'll be a bit of a shock when it comes.

Brexit means Brexit eh, how we all laughed.

In fairness I think a hard Brexit is about the only deal that could be done in the timescale... Though of course the deadline can be extended if a more nuanced plan was in process.
I suspect pretty much no overarching Deal but perhaps some monetary price to allow financial passporting, perhaps a customs deal and something about citizens in each others countries... But an overall free trade and immigration deal will probably be something we are having talks about for a long time after we leave

 

[Ubik]

Not the first time Labour will have voted against the will of its base and expected them to still vote red now is it?

We were talking about taking remainer votes from the Tories, were we not?

 

[Smores]

Why? Why are these policies worth the paper they're written on when they keep you a million miles from the position of being able to enforce them?

The policy isn't the issue, in isolation they poll very well. Labour has an image problem, well several actually but mainly the ruins of Blairism and then likeability with Ed and Corbyn.

Of course the issue is all candidates fall into one of those two categories really.

 

[711]

In fairness I think a hard Brexit is about the only deal that could be done in the timescale... Though of course the deadline can be extended if a more nuanced plan was in process.
I suspect pretty much no overarching Deal but perhaps some monetary price to allow financial passporting, perhaps a customs deal and something about citizens in each others countries... But an overall free trade and immigration deal will probably be something we are having talks about for a long time after we leave

I agree pretty much. Everyone seems to think new trade deals will take forever, with the EU and with others, and until they are it will be tariffs all round. I don't see immigration taking up much time though, all sides want existing migrants to keep their rights, and anything new on student/work/immigration visas will be unilateral.

 

[Smores]

We were talking about taking remainer votes from the Tories, were we not?

Only read this page but Tory remain voters are far more likely to go Lib Dem and that's fine coalition is probably the only hope. Even Labour remainers who feel betrayed going to Lib Dem isnt the worst.

Keeping the Labour leave voters (who presumably are less dogmatic) is a bigger issue for any Brexit based GE otherwise it would be giving back the gains.

 

[Mozza]

Israel would be fast-tracked if it ever wished (unlikely) to join the EU. Ukraine, Serbia just a matter of time. Morrocco and Turkey, not a chance.

Israels lack of human rights for Palestinians would mean it couldn't join. All of the Balkans will join in time

 

[Sultan]

Israels lack of human rights for Palestinians would mean it couldn't join. All of the Balkans will join in time

That was the reason I put unlikely in brackets.

 

[Wibble]

probably the best article i have read so far on Brexit, it doesn't cover all the problems that are facing the UK economy and seems to contradict itself at times for example saying companies need to invest in jobs then going on to say they need to invest in automation with out recognising that automation is causing its own economic challenges.

but over all i think the article shares my views, that most Brexiters and Remain campaigners have completely missed the point through all this, the British economy is slowly leaving more and more people behind and needs a complete re-think, leaving the EU alone wont achieve this and if anything will make it harder, but on the flip side it is clear that companies are taking advantage of the way the EU works which is adding to economic problems to large areas of society, this needs to be addressed, but unfortunately their is no desire to do this from within the EU, which would make having radical reforms to the British economy problematic to impossible while remaining in the current EU system.

But instead of having this debate both in the country and with our EU partners about what needs to happen to our economy to make it fairer, what is the way forward in the changing times of globalisation, automation....... what would be possible while remaining in the EU, what we wouldn't be able to do while in the EU, where we could compromise, where we couldn't...... instead of having that debate we've had the debate off lets make Lets get our independence back and its all the immigrants fault VS the EU is perfect the way it is and couldn't possibly be causing any problems at all if you don't think so your a rasist....

but still nice to read at least one article that almost gets it.

I thought it was one of the better things I'd read on the subject recently.

 

[jackofalltrades]

I think differently, that May is the one who will want to speed things up, and that she will indeed go for a hard Brexit. We'll find out the gist of it sooner than people think as well, it's been such a long wait it'll be a bit of a shock when it comes.

Brexit means Brexit eh, how we all laughed.

I agree that she would like it to happen quickly but I think the EU will not want her to dictate the pace on her terms. I really don't get the "we'll walk away" act either. Wouldn't that take things to an entirely different level of acrimony ? Wouldn't we be gripping each other by the throat ?

 

[Full bodied red]

True, but I'm thinking 4 years from now and three factors : 1 - the effect of Brexit, which ranges from zero to apocalypse depending who you listen to. The worst of all worlds would be Brexit = economic and political meltdown in the UK and 2 - also Europe. And 3 - the effect of Arron Banks on the UKIP.

Remember Farage's speech to the EU parliament after the referendum "when I first came here demanding we leave, you all laughed. Well, you're not laughing now, are you ?"

We've got 327 pages on the Brexit and its effect on the UK and almost nothing on its effect on Europe. Some people seem to believe that if Europe goes down the pan, then no problem for us, in fact better for us.

The next few years are going to be full of instability and uncertainty in my view, and trying to predict how things will develop from now is fraught with difficulty.

I think you're spot on there. Both the EU and the UK are moving into unchartered territory

Can the UK prosper without open access to the Single Market ? It'll certainly survive, but prosper ?

Can the EU contunue unchanged without the UK's financial contributions and its ability to find jobs for other EU citizens ? It's probably only after BREXIT that the EU will start to appreciate what the UK actually has contributed even though it has always seen as the problem child.

So you'd think it would be fairly easy for the politicos on both sides to identify their own needs after BREXIT and then focus, firstly, on finding a solution to those. Instead they're already posturing and bitching about whether the UK should pay MEPs and EU staffers' pensions after BREXIT or whether the EU should compensate the UK for what it contributed to the various EU real estate that it's bought over the years. Already arguing about things like this, that in the grand scheme of things are no bigger than a pin prick on a gnat's bollock, shows just how difficult it's also going to be for the EU, not just the UK, after BREXIT.

 

[jackofalltrades]

I think you're spot on there. Both the EU and the UK are moving into unchartered territory

Can the UK prosper without open access to the Single Market ? It'll certainly survive, but prosper ?

Can the EU contunue unchanged without the UK's financial contributions and its ability to find jobs for other EU citizens ? It's probably only after BREXIT that the EU will start to appreciate what the UK actually has contributed even though it has always seen as the problem child.

So you'd think it would be fairly easy for the politicos on both sides to identify their own needs after BREXIT and then focus, firstly, on finding a solution to those. Instead they're already posturing and bitching about whether the UK should pay MEPs and EU staffers' pensions after BREXIT or whether the EU should compensate the UK for what it contributed to the various EU real estate that it's bought over the years. Already arguing about things like this, that in the grand scheme of things are no bigger than a pin prick on a gnat's bollock, shows just how difficult it's also going to be for the EU, not just the UK, after BREXIT.

It'll be a series of conflicting interests. For example, Spain would lose millions because they'd have to fork out more in contributions on one hand and lose money in exports on the other. On top of that, if the UK suffers too much, the Spanish tourist industry would be greatly damaged too. What will they be offered in compensation ?

In contrast, as I understand it, the EU will have to set punishing conditions for Brexit. That's non-negotiable if we are to believe the comments made. The mind boggles !

 

[Full bodied red]

It'll be a series of conflicting interests. For example, Spain would lose millions because they'd have to fork out more in contributions on one hand and lose money in exports on the other. On top of that, if the UK suffers too much, the Spanish tourist industry would be greatly damaged too. What will they be offered in compensation ?

In contrast, as I understand it, the EU will have to set punishing conditions for Brexit. That's non-negotiable if we are to believe the comments made. The mind boggles !

It doesn't have to, but it will pour encourager les autres.

 

[ThierryHenry]

It's painful hearing the reporting and general tone of the debate about this 'deal' we're supposedly going to make with the EU. There's many facets to the negotiations we're going to have to enter into, and really, the public and the vast majority of the media aren't going to be able to understand to nuances involved, particularly following the absence of facts from the referendum campaign, and the continued bluster from the likes of Johnson. I'm worried about the tabloid reaction over-influencing our decision making too - e.g. any compromise with the exit bill to aid free trade negotiations. It's going to be an awful two years of press reporting.

 

[ThierryHenry]

The policy isn't the issue, in isolation they poll very well. Labour has an image problem, well several actually but mainly the ruins of Blairism and then likeability with Ed and Corbyn.

Of course the issue is all candidates fall into one of those two categories really.

The problems that the Corbyn administration have run far beyond 'likeability'. Sheer incompetence is probably the biggest issue.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

If the US put up interest rates and May pulls the trigger, could be an interesting week for the Pound.

 

[sun_tzu]

If the US put up interest rates and May pulls the trigger, could be an interesting week for the Pound.

I think us interest rates could cause some rush to the dollar... But would probably drain from both the euro and pound
I think the triggering is mostly priced into the pound euro as it has been known for so long

 

[sun_tzu]

The problems that the Corbyn administration have run far beyond 'likeability'. Sheer incompetence is probably the biggest issue.

Indeed... I mean this is a man who couldn't even find an overcrowded train in the UK... Incompetence is probably being generous to him... So far out of his depth I am half expecting the hoff to don a pair of red shorts and rescue him from pmq's

 

[Paul the Wolf]

I think us interest rates could cause some rush to the dollar... But would probably drain from both the euro and pound
I think the triggering is mostly priced into the pound euro as it has been known for so long

For the possible rate rise in the US, yes it would probably affect both to varying degrees, the Pound has lost 4.5 cents already against the Euro in the last 2 weeks, how much more it could lose is open to debate

 

[sun_tzu]

For the possible rate rise in the US, yes it would probably affect both to varying degrees, the Pound has lost 4.5 cents already against the Euro in the last 2 weeks, how much more it could lose is open to debate

I'm hoping not too much more... I shifted 200k back from the euro account the other day figuring it shouldn't go too much further... But it's always a guess with these things... My gut feel is that article 50 won't effect it too much but as you say it's open to debate and I talk with traders who suggest anything between parity and about 1.4 by the end of the year... So yeah nobody really knows

 

[Paul the Wolf]

I'm hoping not too much more... I shifted 200k back from the euro account the other day figuring it shouldn't go too much further... But it's always a guess with these things... My gut feel is that article 50 won't effect it too much but as you say it's open to debate and I talk with traders who suggest anything between parity and about 1.4 by the end of the year... So yeah nobody really knows

I saw two traders a week or so ago who worked for the same company giving completely opposite advice to their customers.
I agree to a certain extent , the big movements should come when the markets know which direction the negotiations are likely to go.

One thing I would say though, if the negotiations were on my behalf, I'd refuse to let Fox, Davis or Johnson have any input whatsoever.

 

[Cheesy]

It's painful hearing the reporting and general tone of the debate about this 'deal' we're supposedly going to make with the EU. There's many facets to the negotiations we're going to have to enter into, and really, the public and the vast majority of the media aren't going to be able to understand to nuances involved, particularly following the absence of facts from the referendum campaign, and the continued bluster from the likes of Johnson. I'm worried about the tabloid reaction over-influencing our decision making too - e.g. any compromise with the exit bill to aid free trade negotiations. It's going to be an awful two years of press reporting.

It's been a major problem throughout the entire process. See on QT and similar shows when, every so often, a bold audience member will proclaim how we should just 'not do any deal at all' when leaving, just to stick it to the big bad EU. Irrespective of opinion on the issue the public were incredibly misinformed heading into the vote, with confusion as to the actual status of our relationship with the EU, and how that relationship would change if we left.

 

[sun_tzu]

I saw two traders a week or so ago who worked for the same company giving completely opposite advice to their customers.
I agree to a certain extent , the big movements should come when the markets know which direction the negotiations are likely to go.

One thing I would say though, if the negotiations were on my behalf, I'd refuse to let Fox, Davis or Johnson have any input whatsoever.

I doubt they will have much real input... May seems a control freak so will set the strategy... The civil service will handle the detail... Those three will bumble around and drop the odd bollock but I suspect be largely treated with the irrelevance they will warrent

 

[GloryHunter07]

Yes, as soon as Corbyn leaves.


Lib Dems are already going to make the centrepiece of their next GE campaign to stay in the EU, as soon as Corbyn leaves I think Labour will take that mantle. Don't need another referendum, the GE vote alone will be enough.

I can see the Liberals going full Remain but i honestly cant see Labour being brave enough.