Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

[Full bodied red]

You are comparing a communist dictatorship, which had a "pretence at democracy", first time I've heard that, with the EU. Communism , fascism and nationalism don't work.
Presume the USA having 50 states makes it too big to govern as well.

The good citizens of the USA elect their President every four years. I don't recall being allowed to vote for President Tusk or any of the other three people who call themselves President within the EU's current structure - maybe you were....

All Government ministers here in France and in the UK are elected by the countries' citizens as MPs before being appointed as ministers. I don't recall any of the EU Commissioners ever being elected by the EU's citizens before being appointed as Commissioners.

You might not call that a dictatorship - I reckon it's pretty damn close to a dictatorship and no different to the pretence at democracy that existed in the USSR.

You plainly haven't experienced a world where protectionism was the norm.

Bolleaux - The EU operates and controls the most protectionist trading bloc in the Free World.

 

[Ubik]

 

[Paul the Wolf]

The previous post is usually the type expressed by the EUSSR brigade. While some of the points raised about the difficulties and practicalities of running a union of 28 nation states as one unit are legitimate, it's totally off the wall to think it's a dictatorship.

Ironically, it's the similar to mistake the communists made in the thirties - that there was no difference between living in a capitalist Europe and living in a Nazi Europe.

All laws are made by the EU, we want our sovereignty back etc ad nauseum . The UK itself comprised of 4 nations looks more likely to split up than the EU at this moment.

 

[Rightnr]

Lol, what an absolute clown that Tim Martin has shown himself to be.

 

[Full bodied red]

All laws are made by the EU, we want our sovereignty back etc ad nauseum . The UK itself comprised of 4 nations looks more likely to split up than the EU at this moment.

Might not be such a bad thing for those that don't want to stay in the UK.

As often said - if the Scots really want independence, they ought to insist that the English, Welsh and Irish are allowed to join in a Scottish Independence vote.

Their independence would then be almost guaranteed.

 

[jackofalltrades]

I agree with Tim. I want 100% Brexit except for the parts which affect me, then I want 0%.

 

[sun_tzu]

As often said - if the Scots really want independence, they ought to insist that the English, Welsh and Irish are allowed to join in a Scottish Independence vote.

Their independence would then be almost guaranteed.

true... im still wondering what might happen if the scotts do vote for independence but the boarder region or say the shetlands vote overwhelmingly to stay in the UK... surely they than argue the SNP is dragging them out of a union against their will etc

 

[PedroMendez]

This is why bookmakers drive better cars than the rest of us.

I don’t agree with anything he said, but I just checked the odds for countries leaving the EU. PaddyPower has Italy on even till 2025.

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/european-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=2892288

 

[Minimalist]

Has any Brexiter ever explained their feelings on the fact their Govt has always had controls on immigration from outside the EU and never put any controls in place? Which (coincidently to me a least) usually contains the people they claim are destroying their wages/culture etc.

 

[sun_tzu]

Has any Brexiter ever explained their feelings on the fact their Govt has always had controls on immigration from outside the EU and never put any controls in place? Which (coincidently to me a least) usually contains the people they claim are destroying their wages/culture etc.

No controls in place you say... well besides having to earn a certain amount of money - or only able to work in certain sectors, not able to bring partners and children with you unless you earn a certain amount... english language requirements and that kind of stuff?

 

[Minimalist]

No controls in place you say... well besides having to earn a certain amount of money - or only able to work in certain sectors, not able to bring partners and children with you unless you earn a certain amount... english language requirements and that kind of stuff?

Sorry I'm off the mark there. I was more thinking that there is no quota. Also is it not true the majority of immigration comes from these place outside the EU? (I've read that a few times I'm sure)

 

[Kentonio]

Sorry I'm off the mark there. I was more thinking that there is no quota. Also is it not true the majority of immigration comes from these place outside the EU? (I've read that a few times I'm sure)

I think its about 50-50. They also don't mention that an estimated 1 in 10 Brits also live in other countries.

 

[Full bodied red]

I think its about 50-50. They also don't mention that an estimated 1 in 10 Brits also live in other countries.

1 in 10 ?

I've no idea the actual number ( I'm one, of course ) but 1 in 10 would be about 6 million, which sounds a lot to me as the UK Government said it's only about 1.5 million permanently resident inside the other EU countries....

 

[Classical Mechanic]

1 in 10 ?

I've no idea the actual number ( I'm one, of course ) but 1 in 10 would be about 6 million, which sounds a lot to me as the UK Government said it's only about 1.5 million permanently resident inside the other EU countries....

Most Brits I know emigrate to Anglosphere countries.

 

[Kentonio]

1 in 10 ?

I've no idea the actual number ( I'm one, of course ) but 1 in 10 would be about 6 million, which sounds a lot to me as the UK Government said it's only about 1.5 million permanently resident inside the other EU countries....

It's slightly less apparently, around the 5 million mark (as of 2013).

1.3m in Australia
750k in the US
675k in Canada
315k to NZ
300k to South Africa

Then add in all the Brits in the EU countries, and all the other countries where we are in smaller numbers, and it quickly adds up.

 

[Full bodied red]

WOW.....

But presumably those in the list above had to pass fairly strict rules for permanent immigration / residence, so the numbers which are in the EU and are currently subject of the BREXIT debate / blackmail is more or less the 1.5 million as the Government have indicated ?

So it's 1.5 million v how many EU nationals in the UK - 2.5 million ??

My own position is my wife and myself have been living here for almost 30 years and have a Carte de Sejour from the French Government first issued in 1985, but I'm still legally UK resident as far as UK Income Tax / NHI goes, so BREXIT won't impact us too much - all that would change is that we'll have to increase the levels of our Private Medical Insurance to replace the P111 if the shit hits the fan. And I suppose that this would be the same for most of the UK nationals currently in EU countries apart from the casual barmen and timeshare hustlers in Marbella, Crete, etc....

 

[Cassidy]

Sorry I'm off the mark there. I was more thinking that there is no quota. Also is it not true the majority of immigration comes from these place outside the EU? (I've read that a few times I'm sure)

Its much harder to migrate into the country from outside the EU, in fact due to the numbers that come from the EU its made even harder for the non EU migrants. Most that come from outside the EU have to meet very strict criteria. There isn't a hard quota but visas are controlled.

 

[Bury Red]

WOW.....

But presumably those in the list above had to pass fairly strict rules for permanent immigration / residence, so the numbers which are in the EU and are currently subject of the BREXIT debate / blackmail is more or less the 1.5 million as the Government have indicated ?

So it's 1.5 million v how many EU nationals in the UK - 2.5 million ??

My own position is my wife and myself have been living here for almost 30 years and have a Carte de Sejour from the French Government first issued in 1985, but I'm still legally UK resident as far as UK Income Tax / NHI goes, so BREXIT won't impact us too much - all that would change is that we'll have to increase the levels of our Private Medical Insurance to replace the P111 if the shit hits the fan. And I suppose that this would be the same for most of the UK nationals currently in EU countries apart from the casual barmen and timeshare hustlers in Marbella, Crete, etc....

With the exception of the US, all those listed by Kentonio would generally be easier to get into than the UK provided you'd got a job lined up which usually means at least degree level qualifications and some experience in a desirable profession. Once you're in obtaining permanent status is usually no more than a case of time served and a bit of paperwork. In Hong Kong I left one work visa shy of the 7 years required to apply for permanent residence there whilst in Singapore we could have applied after 3 years and would have just needed to pass a fairly straightforward test on the country, system and culture. Most of our guys that worked down in Oz applied for PR after a couple of years and NZ is similar. South Africa needs you to have lived and worked there 5 years to apply, Canada will let you apply straight away.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

WOW.....

But presumably those in the list above had to pass fairly strict rules for permanent immigration / residence, so the numbers which are in the EU and are currently subject of the BREXIT debate / blackmail is more or less the 1.5 million as the Government have indicated ?

So it's 1.5 million v how many EU nationals in the UK - 2.5 million ??

My own position is my wife and myself have been living here for almost 30 years and have a Carte de Sejour from the French Government first issued in 1985, but I'm still legally UK resident as far as UK Income Tax / NHI goes, so BREXIT won't impact us too much - all that would change is that we'll have to increase the levels of our Private Medical Insurance to replace the P111 if the shit hits the fan. And I suppose that this would be the same for most of the UK nationals currently in EU countries apart from the casual barmen and timeshare hustlers in Marbella, Crete, etc....

Do you spend less than 6 months in France then and spend more than 6 months in the UK?
You only pay your tax and NI in the UK and still on P111 status.

Presume you intend to stay in France for good?

 

[Untied]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-imports-scam-say-eu-anti-fraud-investigators

Just as well that the UK's customs will be able to cope with the double of their workload should it revert to WTO rules and leave the single market

"It will all be solved by technology" - literally the white paper's answer

 

[Paul the Wolf]

"It will all be solved by technology" - literally the white paper's answer

Hmm, robots inspecting the lorries and paperwork at Dover, eh.
Does it mention how the 20 mile tailbacks on the M20 will be handled?

 

[Full bodied red]

Do you spend less than 6 months in France then and spend more than 6 months in the UK?
You only pay your tax and NI in the UK and still on P111 status.

Presume you intend to stay in France for good?

All a bit complicated - we have houses in the UK, in Germany and here. Now I'm retired we spend most of our time here, but don't have any salary based pensions from French companies or State Pension from the French Government, and the taxes I pay in the UK are more than enough to avoid having to pay any additional tax here.

When I first came here, I was working for a Swiss owned German company, but worked 100% here in France. It was all a bit complicated tax-wise, so I just stayed UK resident but then never actually got round to changing it to France or Germany or Switzerland. I paid some tax in Germany, some here and the balance in the UK.

The last 15 years or so before I retired I was working for a French company ( which I partly owned with French partners ) in West Africa and paid some taxes here and some in the UK. Paying taxes in the UK provides me with my P111 - not just to use here, but everywhere else in the EU, one of the very few benefits that the UK being a member of the EU has come up with for me personally, although like lots of other people, we've always had additional, supplementary medical insurance for use in France only. After BREXIT, that will most likely have to change to cover treatment outside of France as we don't qualify for the French equivalent of the P111 as we've never been Permanent Resident and Tax Resident here.

Stay here for good ? Well, this has been 'home' for 30-odd years and will always be home irrespective of which house we're spending time in during any particular week or month - last year, in total, was about 8 months here and a couple of months each in the UK and Germany. Not for tax reasons, just that our children live in the UK and my wife's family all live in Germany.

 

[Wibble]

I don’t agree with anything he said, but I just checked the odds for countries leaving the EU. PaddyPower has Italy on even till 2025.

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/european-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=2892288

Someone else leaving within such a long timeframe, especially a basketcase like Italy or (even more so) Greece, won't change the EU to the extent suggested.

 

[Full bodied red]

Someone else leaving within such a long timeframe, especially a basketcase like Italy or (even more so) Greece, won't change the EU to the extent suggested.

You sure ?

If Greece and Italy left this morning, probably the first thing they'd do is default on their debts because the ECB would no longer provide them with loans, and which for the ECB alone would then mean having to write-off almost €500 billion.

Which is precisely why the ECB continues to provide funds to Italy and Geece - lend them another €5 billion due for repayment in 2035, €1 billion of which vanishes into the basketcase economies, and €4 billion ( or less than 1%) is used to repay previous loans maturing in 2017. That way, the ECB can say that Italy and Greece are actually repaying their loans, so no need for the ECB to write-off the €500 billion just yet....Yeah, sure !

In 1966, Milton Stoddard Eccles, former Chairman of the Federal reserve, wrote -

The United States economy is like a poker game where the chips have become concentrated in fewer and fewer hands, and where the other fellows can stay in the game only by borrowing. When their credit runs out the game will stop

You can't see the similarities with the Eurozone in 2017 ??

And what the implictions will be for the whole EU itself when the game stops ??

 

[Abizzz]

"It will all be solved by technology" - literally the white paper's answer

Spoiler

The new official policy "we'll have an open mind" (Them of all people, ffs ). I am really starting to believe that they've begun falling for their own lies.
Economy? We'll trade with everybody, which is much better then just trading with the EU!
Pound down? It hugely improves the competitiveness of the UK workforce.
Public funding? It's not a matter of money...

 

[Abizzz]

In 1966, Milton Stoddard Eccles, former Chairman of the Federal reserve, wrote -

The United States economy is like a poker game where the chips have become concentrated in fewer and fewer hands, and where the other fellows can stay in the game only by borrowing. When their credit runs out the game will stop

The amount of poker chips in play keeps increasing though... But even if that analogy were fitting, would you say any major redistribution has taken place in the U.S since 1966? If not, does that signal that the Euro might go on another 40 odd years?

 

[Wibble]

You sure ?

If Greece and Italy left this morning, probably the first thing they'd do is default on their debts because the ECB would no longer provide them with loans, and which for the ECB alone would then mean having to write-off almost €500 billion.

Which is precisely why the ECB continues to provide funds to Italy and Geece - lend them another €5 billion due for repayment in 2035, €1 billion of which vanishes into the basketcase economies, and €4 billion ( or less than 1%) is used to repay previous loans maturing in 2017. That way, the ECB can say that Italy and Greece are actually repaying their loans, so no need for the ECB to write-off the €500 billion just yet....Yeah, sure !

In 1966, Milton Stoddard Eccles, former Chairman of the Federal reserve, wrote -

The United States economy is like a poker game where the chips have become concentrated in fewer and fewer hands, and where the other fellows can stay in the game only by borrowing. When their credit runs out the game will stop

You can't see the similarities with the Eurozone in 2017 ??

And what the implictions will be for the whole EU itself when the game stops ??

By 2025 not tommorrow. And defaulting on debt after leaving would cause retaliation that neither economy wiuld survive.

And the whole game won't stop. No other solvent country would be as stupid as the UK.

 

[Wibble]

So 10% of Brits live abroad? Probably a huge underestimate as people like me and my family are entitled to a UK passport but don't currently have one.

Ironic that a country that spreads migrants far and wide doesn't like migrants.

 

[Kentonio]

So 10% of Brits live abroad? Probably a huge underestimate as people like me and my family are entitled to a UK passport but don't currently have one.

Ironic that a country that spreads migrants far and wide doesn't like migrants.

Come on now, I think you mean 'ex-pats'.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

So 10% of Brits live abroad? Probably a huge underestimate as people like me and my family are entitled to a UK passport but don't currently have one.

Ironic that a country that spreads migrants far and wide doesn't like migrants.

Most UK migrants from round my way move to Australia to get away from the immigration over here.

There is an irony there but also a cause and effect of sorts. Anecdotal I know but I have always thought it is why Australia has such a controversial immigration policy, has its reputation for being anti immigrant in general and why UKIP ran on a manifesto of adopting something akin to Australia's point based system.

 

[711]

There's a lot of scaremongering about existing migrants going on. It doesn't matter how often the EU say they won't discuss anything until article 50 is tendered, it seems it just won't sink in.
May has said she wishes to protect existing migrants, the EU of Poland, Rumania etc certainly will, it's a non-story.

 

[Stanley Road]

So 10% of Brits live abroad? Probably a huge underestimate as people like me and my family are entitled to a UK passport but don't currently have one.

Ironic that a country that spreads migrants far and wide doesn't like migrants.

In the case of oz it was criminals.

How does oz handle immigrants looking to enter?

 

[Paul the Wolf]

All a bit complicated - we have houses in the UK, in Germany and here. Now I'm retired we spend most of our time here, but don't have any salary based pensions from French companies or State Pension from the French Government, and the taxes I pay in the UK are more than enough to avoid having to pay any additional tax here.

When I first came here, I was working for a Swiss owned German company, but worked 100% here in France. It was all a bit complicated tax-wise, so I just stayed UK resident but then never actually got round to changing it to France or Germany or Switzerland. I paid some tax in Germany, some here and the balance in the UK.

The last 15 years or so before I retired I was working for a French company ( which I partly owned with French partners ) in West Africa and paid some taxes here and some in the UK. Paying taxes in the UK provides me with my P111 - not just to use here, but everywhere else in the EU, one of the very few benefits that the UK being a member of the EU has come up with for me personally, although like lots of other people, we've always had additional, supplementary medical insurance for use in France only. After BREXIT, that will most likely have to change to cover treatment outside of France as we don't qualify for the French equivalent of the P111 as we've never been Permanent Resident and Tax Resident here.

Stay here for good ? Well, this has been 'home' for 30-odd years and will always be home irrespective of which house we're spending time in during any particular week or month - last year, in total, was about 8 months here and a couple of months each in the UK and Germany. Not for tax reasons, just that our children live in the UK and my wife's family all live in Germany.

Depending on the outcome of how EU/UK citizens will be treated , although I don't believe too much will change, but if things do get nasty, the benefits of the UK being in the EU may become more apparent thereafter.

 

[Wibble]

In the case of oz it was criminals.

How does oz handle immigrants looking to enter?

We are good with immigrants as long as they aren't refugees in which case we illegally deport them to 3rd world hell holes and put them in internment camps to be raped and murdered more or less without recourse. Even when sick we often let them die without proper treatment rather than bring them back to an Australian hospital. We spit on the Geneva convention. We are a disgrace.

 

[Wibble]

Most UK migrants from round my way move to Australia to get away from the immigration over here.

There is an irony there but also a cause and effect of sorts. Anecdotal I know but I have always thought it is why Australia has such a controversial immigration policy, has its reputation for being anti immigrant in general and why UKIP ran on a manifesto of adopting something akin to Australia's point based system.

All the UK and Irish people I know out here are ashamed of our government's stance on refugees. And I don't know anyone who would have immigration to the UK in their list of reasons they moved here. The place is 97% migrants (or 100% if you go back 50,000 years).

The points system is good in that it targets skilled migration but there are other family type visas.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

All the UK and Irish people I know out here are ashamed of our government's stance on refugees. And I don't know anyone who would have immigration to the UK in their list of reasons they moved here. The place is 97% migrants (or 100% if you go back 50,000 years).

The points system is good in that it targets skilled migration but there are other family type visas.

How ashamed of Australia's immigration policy are they then? And if Australia are such a nation of refugee and immigrants champions how on earth are the policies they employ politically viable?

 

[Wibble]

There is a huge divide between right and left although bizarrely the Labor party pretend to agree with bits of it for fear of losing votes. Which disgusts me.

Basically the people who vote Liberal/National (Tory) are largely very right wing so breaking international treaties to mistreat refugees, especially dark skinned ones, even better Muslim's, plays very well to their voting demographic on average.

Irony isn't a major part of their skill set either.

It is why Trump likes us. We do the despicable things he dreams of.

 

[Full bodied red]

The amount of poker chips in play keeps increasing though... But even if that analogy were fitting, would you say any major redistribution has taken place in the U.S since 1966? If not, does that signal that the Euro might go on another 40 odd years?

Agreed about more chips in play – but in the Eurozone it’s the Germans who are the only ones able to bring new chips to the table. So if you want to stay in the game, you have to borrow courtesy of the Germans, and if you want to ( indirectly ) borrow from the Germans, then you’ll have to agree to do whatever they tell you to do whether you like it or not. As my brother-in-law said to me at Christmas, and only half-jokingly -

All we Germans now own property abroad - it's called Greece.

As for the USA, I agree that, to the naked eye, there appears to have been no major redistribution since 1966, but only if we ignore the fact that in 1966 the US dominated the world economically whereas now Corporate USA is 50% owned by Asian and Middle East investors and US companies no longer dominate except in a few new industries which didn’t exist in 1966 such as IT and Social Media.

So, Yes, I think that there has been a fairly large redistribution.

On the other hand, I’d argue that the 2008 meltdown is what happens when credit eventually does run out – there’s only a limited amount of smoke and mirrors that borrowers and lenders can get away with until the shit really does hit the fan.

Which is full circle back to Germany – the Eurozone and the EU will continue for another 40 years and even longer but only as long Germany continues to get its own way and what it wants. If or when that stops, so does the EU. So all the other EU members have more or less a single choice – agree to Germany running the EU or quit the EU if your economy is strong enough to survive without constant financial support from the EU. In the UK’s case, it does and will continue to survive without financial support from the EU which is not the case for most of the EU’s Southern and Eastern European members such as Italy, Greece, Portugal, Slovakia, Romania, etc.

By 2025 not tommorrow. And defaulting on debt after leaving would cause retaliation that neither economy wiuld survive.

And the whole game won't stop. No other solvent country would be as stupid as the UK.

Run that one past me again….

Are you suggesting that by 2025 the Italian and Greek economies are going to change structurally and improve sufficiently well that they’ll no longer need to keep borrowing yet more and more from the ECB to pay off debts to other lenders as these debts mature between now and 2025 ?

Seems impossible to me, but maybe you’re right…..

As for the game not stopping, I think I’ve answered how and why I think it will continue or not continue in my reply to ABIZZ.

 

[Wibble]

I'm saying that another country leaving by 2025 won't be that big a shock to the EU. If they do leave no way will they be allowed to default as it would totally tank their economy. Political suicide for the politicians that let it happen. This is why Greece talked tough and then folded like a house of cards.

And just because we are idiots doesn't meant the EU is doomed. Most countries would love to be in. Except those who are already in who would love to have the preferential treatment we got in terms of rebates.

And I think it would be a great idea to let German politicians make all of the decisions. Our lot are a shower who I wouldn't trust to park my car.

 

[Full bodied red]

I'm saying that another country leaving by 2025 won't be that big a shock to the EU. If they do leave no way will they be allowed to default as it would totally tank their economy. Political suicide for the politicians that let it happen. This is why Greece talked tough and then folded like a house of cards.

And just because we are idiots doesn't meant the EU is doomed. Most countries would love to be in. Except those who are already in who would love to have the preferential treatment we got in terms of rebates.

And I think it would be a great idea to let German politicians make all of the decisions. Our lot are a shower who I wouldn't trust to park my car.

Errr....I don't think anyone can 'allow' you to default on your debts - when you default, it's because you can't afford to pay or don't want to pay and nothing to do with whether you've been 'allowed' to or not. But it happens - Argentina does it every 15 years or so because it's the only way to survive and start over when your debts are simply to big to ever be able to pay off. In the case of Greece, it's as I said before - it's only the smoke and mirrors of a complicit ECB which can't afford to allow Greece to default becasue the whole Eurozone and the EU would then collapse, so it keeps lending and pretending.....

Agreed other countries would love to be in the EU and will soon be allowed to join - like Ukraine, Turkey and Morocco.

Problem is that Ukraine is politically a nuclear bomb; Turkey has been hovering on the verge of civil war for the past 20-odd years; and letting Morocco join is opening the door for another 10+ million economic immigrants into France and Benelux.

I reckon letting those three in would be a problem too far for even German politicos to resolve.

But your comments about rebates is a bit misguided - the UK is a NET contributor to the EU, one of the very few NET contributors, so in fact the rebates are only the EU giving back to the UK some of the UK's own money.

Tell you what - you send me £10 every week. I'll send you back £5 every week, although I'll keep the other £5 and I'll spend a couple of pounds on myself and give the rest to my neighbour, who you don't know, but really needs your money to help him build a new extension on his house and then try to convince yourself that you've got a good deal. Both me and my neighbour would appreciate your generosity but will get really nasty with you if you decide you don't like this arrangement and decide to stop paying us.