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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

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Does anyone smell a rat with the PSA takeover of Opel and the collapse of the LSE merger with Deutsche Börse ?
 
PedroMendez said:
Let’s not pretend, that we all predicted that the UK would just continue to grow with a steady rate compared to the EU average. I certainly didn’t and most people in this thread did neither. I still maintain that Brexit has negative economic consequences for the UK in the long run, but they seem to be rather modest. The whole argument that “we are not out yet” is also wearing thin, because nobody really doubts anymore the UK ends up out of the single market. Voting for Brexit didn’t automatically trigger the apocalypse; maybe everything is going down the drain soon, but I wouldn’t bet my money on it.
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Agree wholeheartedly with this. As a remainer who hopes that sometime in the future there may be a chance for the country to rethink it does irritate me to read dickhead comments on so many forums saying that the UK only continues to function well because we have not left the EU. This when all of those advocating remain, including the experts and pundits, were telling the nation that a leave vote on the 23rd June would automatically mean that the wheels would fall off. Not in some future year but immediately. House prices were going to collapse, an emergency budget was going to be needed. Armageddon was at hand. Pathetic really as none of it happened.

To cap it all I keep reading that those that voted to leave are 'uneducated', 'racist', 'xenophobic' and 'unintelligent' - and they are some of the better adjectives given to those who voted to leave. Seems to me that there are many many remainers who are a sandwich short of a picnic for as sure as eggs are eggs no-one is going to change their mind when labelled in such a manner.

If we cannot persuade those who voted to leave to change their minds in a civilised manner we sure will not change them with the sort of drivel currently being spouted.
 
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JPRouve said:
What do you mean?
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Coming as it does just before Article 50 is invoked could it be part of an anti-Brexit plan ? Not so long ago the merger seemed to have been signed, sealed and delivered. Now Frankfurt is a competitor for the City's role. I wonder if these are really political decisions. If so, to what purpose ?
 
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jackofalltrades said:
Coming as it does just before Article 50 is invoked could it be part of an anti-Brexit plan ?
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It looks more like a Brexit plan than an anti-Brexit plan, the plants in the UK could provide an edge for PSA.
 
Virgil said:
Agree wholeheartedly with this. As a remainer who hopes that sometime in the future there may be a chance for the country to rethink it does irritate me to read dickhead comments on so many forums saying that the UK only continues to function well because we have not left the EU. This when all of those advocating remain, including the experts and pundits, were telling the nation that a leave vote on the 23rd June would automatically mean that the wheels would fall off. Not in some future year but immediately. House prices were going to collapse, an emergency budget was going to be needed. Armageddon was at hand. Pathetic really as none of it happened.

To cap it all I keep reading that those that voted to leave are 'uneducated', 'racist', 'xenophobic' and 'unintelligent' - and they are some of the better adjectives given to those who voted to leave. Seems to me that there are many many remainers who are a sandwich short of a picnic for as sure as eggs are eggs no-one is going to change their mind when labelled in such a manner.

If we cannot persuade those who voted to leave to change their minds in a civilised manner we sure will not change them with the sort of drivel currently being spouted.
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I am not a brit and certainly against Brexit simply for reasons of self-interest. The reason, that there is no short-term apocalypse is simply down to the fact, that macro predictions got it wrong again. They get it wrong all the time. Macro models, that try to simulate and predict shocks are simply laughably bad. In the long run the UK will suffer a bit due to the impact on trade. Economics is fairly clear about that, but this will affect the UK gradually (probably somewhere between -2 % to -8% GDP growth over 10 years) and the costs will be bearable.
Additionally there are other issues. Leaving the EU allows the UK government more freedom for selective horizontal industrial policy. I hate this, because I like free markets, but the majority of this forum should probably love it (Labour is very much in favour of tinkering around).
When it comes to the EU people turn into zealots on both sides of the debate.
 
jackofalltrades said:
You don't think the French and Spanish plants will get priority ?
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PSA are a private company, if UK plants allow them to make more profit they will be a priority, for the UK market. Also Opel is the main target not Vauxhall.
 
It depends on tariffs. Spare Parts move in and out of the UK. If their supply line is crippled by tariffs on both ways then it would be an issue
 
Strange how Brexiters didn't want a 2nd referendum - "how many times do you want one - until you get the right result?" - wonder how many times the bill will go back and forth from the Commons to the Lords until the Brexiters get the right result
 
Paul the Wolf said:
A. If you spent all your money you'd be broke.
B. But I'm not broke.
A. But you haven't spent any money.
B. You said I was going to be broke and I'm not, so you're wrong
A. I give up.
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Yep. Firms will gradually drift away from tbe UK or set up elsewhere when previously they would have considerd the UK. Not to mention the acceleration social divide that will result from regional EU funding drying up. Look again 2-5 years after exit and the UK will obviously have lost out big time.
 
Wibble said:
Yep. Firms will gradually drift away from tbe UK or set up elsewhere when previously they would have considerd the UK. Not to mention the acceleration social divide that will result from regional EU funding drying up. Look again 2-5 years after exit and the UK will obviously have lost out big time.
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Yes, the idea that you judge after 9 months a decision that reverses 45 years of national policy, is incredibly simplistic. There is also the huge opportunity cost resulting from the reallocation of internal administrative resources - time and energies that could have been spent on education or healthcare, for example, will need to be devoted to the details of the divorce and the negotiation of what comes next.
 
Wibble said:
Yep. Firms will gradually drift away from tbe UK or set up elsewhere when previously they would have considerd the UK. Not to mention the acceleration social divide that will result from regional EU funding drying up. Look again 2-5 years after exit and the UK will obviously have lost out big time.
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2-5 years after brexit many countries will have gon through recession as the 7 year economic cycle comes round. Uk can blame brexit and the rest can blame summink else.
 
Stanley Road said:
2-5 years after brexit many countries will have gon through recession as the 7 year economic cycle comes round. Uk can blame brexit and the rest can blame summink else.
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What has that got to do with the economic damage Brexit will result in? Wherever the UK economy is it will be worse off than it would have been without Brexit.
 
I give up with this shitshow, nothing good will come of it because all the decisions are made by idiots.
 
jackofalltrades said:
Coming as it does just before Article 50 is invoked could it be part of an anti-Brexit plan ? Not so long ago the merger seemed to have been signed, sealed and delivered. Now Frankfurt is a competitor for the City's role. I wonder if these are really political decisions. If so, to what purpose ?
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Not really.

Probably been covered but the pound dropping was in effect pulling the plug on the Opel/Vauxhall life support.

With 16 consecutive years of losses amounting to about 15 billion this was due to happen.

A year before Brexit, GM said it hoped to break even for 2016. They rely heavily on the UK Vauxhall market and very strong pound as it was then and has been for so long to make the numbers up and reduce the losses or try to break even.

With the pound looking to be this way for a few years and the long Brexit talks they had no choice but to cut loose.

About the jobs, I'm not that confident but it depends on the tariffs and parts situation. Also Peugeot used to have factories in the UK ten years ago but shut them down to save French jobs. Being in the EU didn't help us with the French. Peugeot is part owned by France and I'm sure things will switch over to the EU eventually unless it's worth it if tariffs are big.

Then you've got the issue with what Opel Vauxhall turn into. Ford and Vauxhall have been the staple of UK car market. If this becomes just another French car then it could possible slip away as an important UK brand and become a smaller euro import. Spain and France have high unemployment as well.

The UK plants are said to ship 80% back to the EU. If we leave the EU then it doesn't look good unless the UK market is enough on its own to keep the factories here. I just don't see it staying an important brand but who knows, GM blocked selling Opel Vauxhall outside europe, Peugeot could try to market the Vauxhall brand worldwide and do well.
 
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Stanley Road said:
2008 + 7 years of downturn sounds about right. Thanks for compounding my point. So we should expect upturn till around 2023. Then you can blame brexit.
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But countries are still on the way up 9 years later and so were the UK, the UK weren't on the way down until the vote.

If there is a recession then everyone will suffer, the UK, the EU, the USA etc. So whether the UK is in the EU or not they will suffer the effects of a recession. Then on top of that you add the effects of leaving the EU- double whammy
 
PedroMendez said:
Let’s not pretend, that we all predicted that the UK would just continue to grow with a steady rate compared to the EU average. I certainly didn’t and most people in this thread did neither. I still maintain that Brexit has negative economic consequences for the UK in the long run, but they seem to be rather modest. The whole argument that “we are not out yet” is also wearing thin, because nobody really doubts anymore the UK ends up out of the single market. Voting for Brexit didn’t automatically trigger the apocalypse; maybe everything is going down the drain soon, but I wouldn’t bet my money on it.
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Look, the damage is going to hurt a lot of companies, and no-one is going to invite that kind of damage before they have to. When Brexit actually happens, and suddenly access to the single market is gone, and the regulatory structure is having to be rebuilt, that's when the pain hits for real. Until then companies will do whatever they can to maximize their profits or at least maintain what they already have. At some point that isn't going to be possible anymore, and that's the cliff edge people keep talking about. It's not naysaying, its not Project Fear, its the simple reality that we don't have a safety net waiting to catch us and we are going to fall.
 
PedroMendez said:
Let’s not pretend, that we all predicted that the UK would just continue to grow with a steady rate compared to the EU average. I certainly didn’t and most people in this thread did neither. I still maintain that Brexit has negative economic consequences for the UK in the long run, but they seem to be rather modest. The whole argument that “we are not out yet” is also wearing thin, because nobody really doubts anymore the UK ends up out of the single market. Voting for Brexit didn’t automatically trigger the apocalypse; maybe everything is going down the drain soon, but I wouldn’t bet my money on it.
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I think most anticipated not much would change in the short term, there's always a tendency to predict an extreme and the more something is discussed the stronger the predication i find.
I don't agree with your second point though, just because business knows we are leaving does not mean the effects have been factored in it takes a long time to see any change. Its not going to be avalanche on the first day out of the EU either, it'll take a number of years for the effects to be felt i imagine. Death by a thousand cuts.
 
Untied said:
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I'd love to know who made this decision, its so incredibly petty that it points to it being May. I don't think anyone else would dare, its just unnecessary bad publicity. Is it a warning to others to add pressure? That has even worse implications.

May didn't even fecking want Brexit and yet its suddenly turned into anyone voicing against it being treated as a traitor. She's a scary woman give her an objective and she'll do anything to achieve it.
 
Smores said:
Its not going to be avalanche on the first day out of the EU either, it'll take a number of years for the effects to be felt i imagine. Death by a thousand cuts.
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A lot will depend on the deal they reach of course, but I'd expect a huge shock on the first day particularly for small businesses. The big companies will been running detailed analysis and making contingency plans, but small businesses that rely on EU trade might well not have the resources or ability to prepare themselves, especially if we suddenly start seeing huge customs delays, with the aftershocks that would send through the system.
 
redshaw said:
Not really.

Probably been covered but the pound dropping was in effect pulling the plug on the Opel/Vauxhall life support.

With 16 consecutive years of losses amounting to about 15 billion this was due to happen.

A year before Brexit, GM said it hoped to break even for 2016. They rely heavily on the UK Vauxhall market and very strong pound as it was then and has been for so long to make the numbers up and reduce the losses or try to break even.

With the pound looking to be this way for a few years and the long Brexit talks they had no choice but to cut loose.

About the jobs, I'm not that confident but it depends on the tariffs and parts situation. Also Peugeot used to have factories in the UK ten years ago but shut them down to save French jobs. Being in the EU didn't help us with the French. Peugeot is part owned by France and I'm sure things will switch over to the EU eventually unless it's worth it if tariffs are big.

Then you've got the issue with what Opel Vauxhall turn into. Ford and Vauxhall have been the staple of UK car market. If this becomes just another French car then it could possible slip away as an important UK brand and become a smaller euro import. Spain and France have high unemployment as well.

The UK plants are said to ship 80% back to the EU. If we leave the EU then it doesn't look good unless the UK market is enough on its own to keep the factories here. I just don't see it staying an important brand but who knows, GM blocked selling Opel Vauxhall outside europe, Peugeot could try to market the Vauxhall brand worldwide and do well.
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Apparently, on French radio they were saying that the jobs would go to France and Spain/Germany within 3 years.
 
At the moment the UK and the EU seem to be in a game of "chicken". If it turns into a game of Russian Roulette, so somebody please remind Boris that if you survive the first pull of the trigger, you pass the gun to the other guy.
 
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Paul the Wolf said:
But countries are still on the way up 9 years later and so were the UK, the UK weren't on the way down until the vote.

If there is a recession then everyone will suffer, the UK, the EU, the USA etc. So whether the UK is in the EU or not they will suffer the effects of a recession. Then on top of that you add the effects of leaving the EU- double whammy
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I must have missed that, was it in the news?
 
Whatever the short term pain after BREXIT, I'll put my money on the UK surviving a lot longer than the EU in its current state and mindset.

What was a good idea for free trade has become a nightmare of bureaucracy, waste, unaccountability and corruption.

In the same way as was the USSR - a forced and ungovernable collection of different cultures, languages, economies, resources, and regional alliances and distrusts which a bunch of idealogues tried to govern from Moscow with no idea of the reality of real life outside of Moscow and were only able to hold together with an autocratic dictatorship and centralised economic planning.

On the other hand, the USSR did at least have a pretence at democracy which is something the Commissars in Brussels either daren't risk introducing or simply just don't believe in. But ask Russian citizens and citizens of former Russian States whether they preferred the old Soviet lifestyle, or their current lifestyle - the overwhelming majority will tell you that their lives are much better today than when Moscow decided what was best for Russia, Armenia, Estonia, Uzbekistan, etc, etc.

In the end, the USSR collapsed almost overnight because it was too big and too diverse to govern democratically, and if the EU doesn't reform, and reform in a big way, it will simply go the way of the USSR and implode - and better to be on the outside looking on than on the inside trying to get out when it happens.
 
Full bodied red said:
Whatever the short term pain after BREXIT, I'll put my money on the UK surviving a lot longer than the EU in its current state and mindset.

What was a good idea for free trade has become a nightmare of bureaucracy, waste, unaccountability and corruption.

In the same way as was the USSR - a forced and ungovernable collection of different cultures, languages, economies, resources, and regional alliances and distrusts which a bunch of idealogues tried to govern from Moscow with no idea of the reality of real life outside of Moscow and were only able to hold together with an autocratic dictatorship and centralised economic planning.

On the other hand, the USSR did at least have a pretence at democracy which is something the Commissars in Brussels either daren't risk introducing or simply just don't believe in. But ask Russian citizens and citizens of former Russian States whether they preferred the old Soviet lifestyle, or their current lifestyle - the overwhelming majority will tell you that their lives are much better today than when Moscow decided what was best for Russia, Armenia, Estonia, Uzbekistan, etc, etc.

In the end, the USSR collapsed almost overnight because it was too big and too diverse to govern democratically, and if the EU doesn't reform, and reform in a big way, it will simply go the way of the USSR and implode - and better to be on the outside looking on than on the inside trying to get out when it happens.
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You are comparing a communist dictatorship, which had a "pretence at democracy", first time I've heard that, with the EU. Communism , fascism and nationalism don't work.
Presume the USA having 50 states makes it too big to govern as well.
 
Full bodied red said:
Whatever the short term pain after BREXIT, I'll put my money on the UK surviving a lot longer than the EU in its current state and mindset.
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This is why bookmakers drive better cars than the rest of us.

What was a good idea for free trade has become a nightmare of bureaucracy, waste, unaccountability and corruption.
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You plainly haven't experienced a world where protectionism was the norm.

In the same way as was the USSR - a forced and ungovernable collection of different cultures, languages, economies, resources, and regional alliances and distrusts which a bunch of idealogues tried to govern from Moscow with no idea of the reality of real life outside of Moscow and were only able to hold together with an autocratic dictatorship and centralised economic planning.

On the other hand, the USSR did at least have a pretence at democracy which is something the Commissars in Brussels either daren't risk introducing or simply just don't believe in. But ask Russian citizens and citizens of former Russian States whether they preferred the old Soviet lifestyle, or their current lifestyle - the overwhelming majority will tell you that their lives are much better today than when Moscow decided what was best for Russia, Armenia, Estonia, Uzbekistan, etc, etc.

In the end, the USSR collapsed almost overnight because it was too big and too diverse to govern democratically, and if the EU doesn't reform, and reform in a big way, it will simply go the way of the USSR and implode - and better to be on the outside looking on than on the inside trying to get out when it happens.
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I feel stupider for reading that. Are you really comparing the fall of the communist block with the EU? (A: You are. I just can't believe it)
 
Paul the Wolf said:
You are comparing a communist dictatorship, which had a "pretence at democracy", first time I've heard that, with the EU. Communism , fascism and nationalism don't work.
Presume the USA having 50 states makes it too big to govern as well.
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The previous post is usually the type expressed by the EUSSR brigade. While some of the points raised about the difficulties and practicalities of running a union of 28 nation states as one unit are legitimate, it's totally off the wall to think it's a dictatorship.

Ironically, it's the similar to mistake the communists made in the thirties - that there was no difference between living in a capitalist Europe and living in a Nazi Europe.
 
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