More like showing you that the very people who's words you hang off, sometimes have positive forecasts for the future.
Brexited | the worst threads live the longest
- Thread starter Silva
- Start date
It shows nothing of the sort. You are just looking for confirmation of some rather naive views on economics.
When Carney says 4 things will be exacerbated by Brexit and those are the key risks, it just demonstrates the wide-ranging impact of this badly informed choice.
When Carney says 4 things will be exacerbated by Brexit and those are the key risks, it just demonstrates the wide-ranging impact of this badly informed choice.
May, the master of BS talk. UK are already trading globally.
But that's not what's being done. We're seeing Brexiteers now trumpeting good news on their side despite the fact they regularly derided many of the same sources and appeared to be tired of experts when those same experts weren't taking their side.
I don't have any problem with people disagreeing with experts; there will no doubt be views of mine which conflict with some particular expert views, however Brexiteers seemed to be tired of experts in general...except on the odd occasion when one offers them some confirmation bias. Perhaps a bit of a generalisation considering the size of the group we're discussing but perhaps fair in some cases.
The B Street Band is reportedly playing at the inauguration. They're a Bruce Springsteen cover band. Would this be a first in terms of performers? I can't imagine anyone else would actually hire a cover band, especially one of a living artist.
I think she'll have to say something a bit more concrete, markets are getting nervous. Possible sizeable swings on Sterling in the next few days, lost nearly a cent against the Euro in a few hours this afternoon
Is this for May's speech?
thought I was still in the Trump threadIt would be interesting to see the effects of a "we want A,B & C" speech followed by "non, nein, no"
You've read the script.
Something like "the UK will post-Brexit trade blue, red and white"?
Seriously, I'd be surprised if she says anything really newsworthy. Newsworthy in my book is anything that isn't hard Brexit.
Something like "the UK will post-Brexit trade blue, red and white"?
Seriously, I'd be surprised if she says anything really newsworthy. Newsworthy in my book is anything that isn't hard Brexit.
Possibly but she's running out of time, and all this wishful thinking rhetoric can't last much longer. She knows if it's a Hard Brexit she announces, markets will react violently , which is why she tried backtracking on Monday of what she said on Sunday.
I'd have loved to have been a fly on the wall when they were discussing what she would say
Well we have around 10 weeks to her self imposed article 50 deadline
I don't think a hard Brexit is fully priced in yet so if that is not her intention she needs to start briefing / leaking or getting aids to accidentally have notes photographed saying no hard Brexit... Because if not the markets are going to get very jumpy and start pricing it in... Parity?
Apparently the new forecast is 1.05 against the buck. Of course, that won't in any case change the mantra of "currencies go up and down".
Currencies go in, Currencies go out, you can't explain that.
The Dollar went down during Trumps conference yesterday, so it's entirely plausible he fecks their economy enough that it doesn't go so low.
May can prove me wrong but I don't expect that she takes a different stance than she has presented up to now. She will under all circumstances avoid the term 'hard' Brexit to not make markets' jump - kind of softening the underlying message - but nothing she'll say will credibly suggest anything else than a hard divorce.
Every time either of them speaks their currency drops, there's a clue in there somewhere.
The difference being the US can sustain itself while the UK is not in such a strong position, unfortunately.
Yeah, soon it'll probably be wiser to compare the pound to something like the Yen to get a real idea of how its behaving.
There's a reason currencies go up and down.
The Leavers tried that a few months ago until they realised the pound had dropped against nearly every currency worldwide
FFS
Any moment now the Brexiters would see the light. Any moment *holds breath*.
Does the current value of sterling price into account A50 or will it tank *again* when May pulls trigger.
Why FFS? This was to be expected. Import costs increase and get partially or fully passed on to the consumer.
There's always going to be some people thinking 'she couldn't actually be that stupid'. I'm guessing its going to plummet like the mood of a UKIP voter during Ramadan.
Tank
Yeah I know I was being sarcastic.
Sorry, my bad.
Short = free money then?
What she says on Tuesday will have a big influence, if she says anything, markets are poised and waiting. If she suggests a non-hard Brexit, sterling may improve, at least for a while.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38602678
Making a speech on Tuesday apparently
Making a speech on Tuesday apparently
Tosh. There are no historic models to base opinions on. Unlike 7 year cycles that economies go thru for example.
It's not comparable to Boom and Bust. A leap into the unknown where leavers are confident economic meltdown won't happen. We'll see.
Forecasters base their opinion on models, if there isn't one then its guesswork. Wrap it up how you like. Let the pound keep sliding too.
Erm, you seem to live under the misguided impression models can replace rational decision-making when modelling as a profession is more an art in some ways than a science.
Trying to talk about a well-defined time window for boom and bust cycles is also a complete assumption. There is no evidence 7 is the right number.
I can also tell you this now - the changes in the currencies are driven by economic forecasts which are tied to the fortunes of a country.
Again, your little spiel about wishing to see the pound go down with a complete disregard for the impact on normal people's lives just exposes pettiness and jealousy for those that are more successful than you are without any seeming upside.
Trying to talk about a well-defined time window for boom and bust cycles is also a complete assumption. There is no evidence 7 is the right number.
I can also tell you this now - the changes in the currencies are driven by economic forecasts which are tied to the fortunes of a country.
Again, your little spiel about wishing to see the pound go down with a complete disregard for the impact on normal people's lives just exposes pettiness and jealousy for those that are more successful than you are without any seeming upside.
Yes and no country has left the EU before, but every time the signs are that the Uk will leave under a hard brexit the pound sinks, every time it looks there may be a chance it will be soft it improves. At the end of the day it's not the forecasters who will decide, it's the markets and the confidence they have in the decision that's taken. The biggest key to all this is the banks and financial institutions if the Uk lose that then...
But how far can the pound slide.
You can shove your patrony up your hole.
This is what happens when you run up against someone who actually knows a lot more in an area you are trying to play expert in. You might not like it but that's the real world.