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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


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  • Poll closed .
Why doesn't the EU just bend over backwards to deal with the even larger and faster-growing Chinese market, then?

There isn't a massive difference between EU and UK GDP growth and a lot of the UK's GDP growth is because of normalised regulations because the UK is in the Single Market right now (by lowering barriers).

The EU isn't going to bend over backwards to deal with the UK. If they were, we may as well trigger Article 50 right now and watch them wet themselves trying to get a good deal. If they were, they would be offering us sweeteners and pre-Article 50 negotiations.

Think of the Logic though

I have something you want, you want a 1000 of them at a pound, I want to charge 1.15

Am I prepared to loose a thousand quid? What would you do?

At the end of they day I am a large quantity buyer so you will give me the discount I am after and that will most likely be more than .15

My point is, and I have made this before, if no-one in Europe is spending any money, why would you aggravate the situation?

I know the answer by the way.
 
And no Europe will not bend over backwards to anybody. It didn't bend over backwards to the 1st-2nd biggest economy in the world. It won't do it with the Brits. The ones hesitating on a hard Brexit isn't the EU but your good selves. The EU cant wait to start the dances
Exactly

They appear to be closed for business

Can I have 200 BMW's please?

No

Good business that
 
Exactly

They appear to be closed for business

Can I have 200 BMW's please?

No

Good business that

No one will say no to business. All they are saying is that unless you're not a European/EU/EEA country then you simply can't sell in Europe/EU/EEA without paying a tariff first. The UK is free not to ask for tariffs for products being sold in its own domain. I doubt that they will accept though. A company in Italy cant sell products in the US with the same conditions to lets say a US company. Same thing about companies set in China. They have better trading conditions to companies set elsewhere.

The issue here is that the UK supply line is integrated with that of other EU countries. Before the product can be sold, that same products keeps moving in and out of the UK. It wasn't a problem when the UK was part of Europe. However it soon wont be the case and tariffs may apply at every step
 
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No one will say no to business. All they are saying is that unless you're not a European/EU/EEA country then you simply can't sell in Europe/EU/EEA without paying a tariff first. The UK is free not to ask for tariffs for products being sold in its own domain. I doubt that they will accept though.
Exactly and to compensate for that tariff you will ask for discount on large purchases, we give up to 50% on our products and we sell globally.
 
Exactly and to compensate for that tariff you will ask for discount on large purchases, we give up to 50% on our products and we sell globally.

I don't understand on large purchases of what exactly? The UK don't really produce things that aren't already produced on the continent.
 
Exactly and to compensate for that tariff you will ask for discount on large purchases, we give up to 50% on our products and we sell globally.

Well I've heard that already. I think it was Andrea Leadsom who suggested selling beef to Australia and tea to China or Japan. The problem are various

a- Distance - people tend to buy products closer to home for a reason ie its cheaper. Transportation is a bitch and so are logistics. I can't see how any nation can do well if their neighbouring continent is close shut to them
b- Europe is not the only country/union who defends its market from being flooded by foreign products. Others do as well. US, Canada, China, India the list go on and on
c- Your past and present doesn't make you very likeable among people. I heard you wanted to deal with BRIC. Well Boris keep pissing Russia off, You know your history with India (even if that wasn't the case, India's market is de facto fort knox), you accused China of throwing spanners in your system at Hinkley Point and I wonder what's your relations are with South Africa considering what happened during colonization. A deal with the WTO need to be ratified by every single country within the WTO including Argentina, and many African, Caribbean and Pacific countries whom the UK was a bit of a dick with in the recent Economic Partnership Agreements
 
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Think of the Logic though

I have something you want, you want a 1000 of them at a pound, I want to charge 1.15

Am I prepared to loose a thousand quid? What would you do?

At the end of they day I am a large quantity buyer so you will give me the discount I am after and that will most likely be more than .15

My point is, and I have made this before, if no-one in Europe is spending any money, why would you aggravate the situation?

I know the answer by the way.
The EU will be hurt financially by the UK leaving, yes, but there is more to life than GDP and GDP per capita.

People in Europe are spending money. They are doing perfectly fine. Their growth isn't exactly fantastic, but we are living in a world where low growth is the norm (unless you are a developing nation or inflating your figures like China). There are some structural problems in the EU, yes, such as youth unemployment and Italian banks, but then again, there's structural problems everywhere in the world, including the UK (housing prices, awful productivity, London bias, etc.).

Countries like Germany and France know that there are benefits to the EU that are worth fighting for, at the expense of a little trade. In fact, it's the exact same argument made by Leave - it is worth a little economic pain to Take Back Control (TM). If they give the UK a preferential deal, they risk the cohesiveness of the EU and this may weaken the Single Market, which increases internal trade barriers, and causes losses.

The problem arises because although we have a trade deficit, the EU is significantly larger than the UK, so what may be a flesh wound to the EU may be an amputated limb to the UK. The EU's GDP is about $17t, while the UK's is about $2.8t.

Two of the largest trade bodies in Germany backed Merkel's firm stance on Brexit. This suggests that German companies are willing to accept the loss themselves. This suggests that they consider reduced trade with the UK to be the lesser evil compared with weakening the EU.

I think a lot of this is to do with the fact that believe it or not, people on the continent don't want to leave the EU. Yes, a lot of people dislike it, but that doesn't mean they want to leave. Europe suffered a lot more last century than the UK - Germany was broken in World War II, Germany and France have been rivals for centuries (maybe even over a thousand years if you want to consider the Carolingan realm collapsing), Spain was recovering from Franco (and probably still is), Eastern Europe has gained tremendously thanks to the EU... The UK's dislike of the EU is absolutely not replicated on the continent, except perhaps in parts of the Nordic nations. While "one country" is probably centuries off, there is a reason why there's basically radio silence from Europe except polite requests to trigger Article 50 - on Brexit, the EU is pretty unified on what they want.

Exactly and to compensate for that tariff you will ask for discount on large purchases, we give up to 50% on our products and we sell globally.

Logistics matter. Shipping over longer distances costs money, which will add to costs. Shipping over long distance is also bad for the environment. Increasing the focus to multiple countries means complying with multiple - possibly conflicting - standards, regulation and tariffs, meaning companies must create multiple manufacturing lines and all the red tape that goes with it (like inspections and paperwork). Shipping over long distances also takes longer, which means that more-perishable goods cannot be shipped and the time delay between "shipped" and "received" complicates accounting. Shipping over longer distances has a security component too - sea travel has piracy and rough seas, but the Channel is calm and jointly-monitored. Air travel places additional restrictions on freight.

One thing that is easier to do globally is services, but here, the barrier is regulatory differences, not tariffs. In other words, it is best if two countries have the same regulatory standards to maximise the services economy. But that would mean a loss of sovereignty because it means putting some of the UK's laws under another country's influence, if not control.

Services are the future of the world, especially in the UK as a developed economy. We should be working to normalise regulations across the world to maximise our economy, but there is no way we can do that alone - we need to be part of a stronger bloc with a bigger hammer. The EU is deadlocked with the US on a deal that barely scratches the surface in this area. The UK wouldn't stand a chance alone.
 
Headline news to Brexiters: It may come as a surprise but the UK is still in the EU and will be for a least another two and a half years and can benefit during that time from being in the EU.
Despite that, the pound has still fallen hard. So much uncertainty and nobody has been informed by the government what their plan is and back-up would be if that doesn't work , except Nissan perhaps.

Shipping long distances has become a nightmare as there are much fewer direct routes than a few years ago as it all goes through hubs and takes much longer to reach destinations than even 20 years ago.

Turnover is not nearly as important as profit, if you're making 15% profit and giving a 50% discount you're losing 35%, astounding news

Although exports may be cheaper the import of materials to make those products will increase as well. Thus if you are importing more than you are exporting and the pound gets even weaker the deficit will become even bigger
 
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Brexiteers in this thread are a picture of desperation in trying to tell more sensible others nothing's a ever or will be a problem.

What no one has mentioned is that savings have been hit hard as well. There's barely any current account left paying more than 3% while mortgage rates were already low enough and most people can't afford a mortgage where I live.

So many costs and the UK has not left yet.
 
Brexiteers in this thread are a picture of desperation in trying to tell more sensible others nothing's a ever or will be a problem.

What no one has mentioned is that savings have been hit hard as well. There's barely any current account left paying more than 3% while mortgage rates were already low enough and most people can't afford a mortgage where I live.

So many costs and the UK has not left yet.
So many moaners unable to deal with how shit the uk is run while still in it. Also not realising it would be shit if it remained in.
 
Apple just raised their Mac prices by upto £400-500 because of the new currency reality.

Dell, HP and Lenovo are all raising their prices by 10% again next month because of the exchange rate. They already raised them by 10% in July.
 
Thats not true. I deal a lot with apple and have spent the best part of the day talking to them

All the existing models have gone up in price.

Other Mac laptop price hikes include the cost of the 12-inch MacBook, which starts at £1,249 vs the same model selling for £1,049 earlier this week — a price increase of almost 20 per cent.

Also going up in price: the Mac Mini, which used to start at £399, now costs at least £479 — so another 20 per cent rise; the iMac which has risen from an entry level price of £899 to £1,049; and the Mac Pro which has increased by £500, with the basic model rising from £2,499 to £2,999 (another 20 per cent bump). None of these Mac models have been refreshed so the price rise is purely related to the pound’s post-Brexit plunge.

https://techcrunch.com/2016/10/28/brexit-hikes-price-of-all-apples-macs-in-the-uk-by-up-to-25/
 
It fascinates me how its totally cool to call Remainers as Remoaners but god forbid if anyone calls Brexiteers as ignorant and xenophobics. That despite most Brexiteers seem to love shooting down the opinion of those who know better (ie experts) + hate crime against foreign people had exploded after Brexit. The so called moaners are the ones who read and believe what people with years of experience in the finance industry say.
 
It fascinates me how its totally cool to call Remainers as Remoaners but god forbid if anyone calls Brexiteers as ignorant and xenophobics. That despite most Brexiteers seem to love shooting down the opinion of those who know better (ie experts) + hate crime against foreign people had exploded after Brexit. The so called moaners are the ones who read and believe what people with years of experience in the finance industry say.

I have a feeling that those moaning the most in due course will be those who didn't get what they were expecting and reality finally dawns on them, that is if it ever dawns on them.
 
It fascinates me how its totally cool to call Remainers as Remoaners but god forbid if anyone calls Brexiteers as ignorant and xenophobics. That despite most Brexiteers seem to love shooting down the opinion of those who know better (ie experts) + hate crime against foreign people had exploded after Brexit. The so called moaners are the ones who read and believe what people with years of experience in the finance industry say.

I get irritated by people who say things like "Brexiters only voted that way because they're racist xenophobes" for the same reason I disagreed with much of the brexit campaign itself: It's anti-fact.

There are plenty of logical and reasonable grounds to criticise them on without indulging in random bits of unsupported truthiness.

Also, being called a moaner isn't quite as bad as being called a racist xenophobe. Maintaining a bit of perspective doesn't hurt.
 
The EU will be hurt financially by the UK leaving, yes, but there is more to life than GDP and GDP per capita.

People in Europe are spending money. They are doing perfectly fine. Their growth isn't exactly fantastic, but we are living in a world where low growth is the norm (unless you are a developing nation or inflating your figures like China). There are some structural problems in the EU, yes, such as youth unemployment and Italian banks, but then again, there's structural problems everywhere in the world, including the UK (housing prices, awful productivity, London bias, etc.).

Countries like Germany and France know that there are benefits to the EU that are worth fighting for, at the expense of a little trade. In fact, it's the exact same argument made by Leave - it is worth a little economic pain to Take Back Control (TM). If they give the UK a preferential deal, they risk the cohesiveness of the EU and this may weaken the Single Market, which increases internal trade barriers, and causes losses.

The problem arises because although we have a trade deficit, the EU is significantly larger than the UK, so what may be a flesh wound to the EU may be an amputated limb to the UK. The EU's GDP is about $17t, while the UK's is about $2.8t.

Two of the largest trade bodies in Germany backed Merkel's firm stance on Brexit. This suggests that German companies are willing to accept the loss themselves. This suggests that they consider reduced trade with the UK to be the lesser evil compared with weakening the EU.

I think a lot of this is to do with the fact that believe it or not, people on the continent don't want to leave the EU. Yes, a lot of people dislike it, but that doesn't mean they want to leave. Europe suffered a lot more last century than the UK - Germany was broken in World War II, Germany and France have been rivals for centuries (maybe even over a thousand years if you want to consider the Carolingan realm collapsing), Spain was recovering from Franco (and probably still is), Eastern Europe has gained tremendously thanks to the EU... The UK's dislike of the EU is absolutely not replicated on the continent, except perhaps in parts of the Nordic nations. While "one country" is probably centuries off, there is a reason why there's basically radio silence from Europe except polite requests to trigger Article 50 - on Brexit, the EU is pretty unified on what they want.



Logistics matter. Shipping over longer distances costs money, which will add to costs. Shipping over long distance is also bad for the environment. Increasing the focus to multiple countries means complying with multiple - possibly conflicting - standards, regulation and tariffs, meaning companies must create multiple manufacturing lines and all the red tape that goes with it (like inspections and paperwork). Shipping over long distances also takes longer, which means that more-perishable goods cannot be shipped and the time delay between "shipped" and "received" complicates accounting. Shipping over longer distances has a security component too - sea travel has piracy and rough seas, but the Channel is calm and jointly-monitored. Air travel places additional restrictions on freight.

One thing that is easier to do globally is services, but here, the barrier is regulatory differences, not tariffs. In other words, it is best if two countries have the same regulatory standards to maximise the services economy. But that would mean a loss of sovereignty because it means putting some of the UK's laws under another country's influence, if not control.

Services are the future of the world, especially in the UK as a developed economy. We should be working to normalise regulations across the world to maximise our economy, but there is no way we can do that alone - we need to be part of a stronger bloc with a bigger hammer. The EU is deadlocked with the US on a deal that barely scratches the surface in this area. The UK wouldn't stand a chance alone.

Reduced trade isn't the lesser of two evils though is it? It is the worst of the two possible outcomes post Brexit. The workers inside the EU who lose their jobs because the EU chooses the worst possible outcome won't be happy that the powers that be decided to sacrifice their livelihoods to prove a point. They don't know who they are yet, or what the EU plans are for them. After the UK triggers article 50 it is going to be spelled out in detail and then we will see where we are.

The cherry picking, leaning over backwards, why should we make a special case type rhetoric while seductive to the reactionaries is a complete lie. It is indisputably in the people in the EU's best interests to continue trade as close as possible to current levels with the UK, they benefit to the tune of 68 billion pounds per year from it.

In this very peculiar case the EU can't serve itself and the people who live in it. You might be right in your argument about how this all goes but I hope you are wrong. Either way its a phoney war at the moment.
 
I get irritated by people who say things like "Brexiters only voted that way because they're racist xenophobes" for the same reason I disagreed with much of the brexit campaign itself: It's anti-fact.

There are plenty of logical and reasonable grounds to criticise them on without indulging in random bits of unsupported truthiness.

Also, being called a moaner isn't quite as bad as being called a racist xenophobe. Maintaining a bit of perspective doesn't hurt.

I am only saying that its totally cool for Brexiteers to call remainers remoaners but its not cool to call leaver ignorant despite the fact that they insist in not listening to experts or reason. Same thing about xenophobia (not racism). Immigration had been the major point about Brexit and hate crimes against foreign people had exploded in this country following Brexit. Yet god forbid calling Brexiteers xenophobic

It fascinates me how they keep insulting others into submission when they do seem to be quite a sensitive lot. Maybe they want to cherry pick who can get insulted and how to do so too?
 
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Are you are still in the UK?

Till now yes. Luckily both my wife and myself can move back home or to another country at a moment's notice. We're probably better off in our country too but we do not like family being so close (the typical South European families are pretty sticky) + missus just love London
 
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Reduced trade isn't the lesser of two evils though is it? It is the worst of the two possible outcomes post Brexit. The workers inside the EU who lose their jobs because the EU chooses the worst possible outcome won't be happy that the powers that be decided to sacrifice their livelihoods to prove a point. They don't know who they are yet, or what the EU plans are for them. After the UK triggers article 50 it is going to be spelled out in detail and then we will see where we are.

The cherry picking, leaning over backwards, why should we make a special case type rhetoric while seductive to the reactionaries is a complete lie. It is indisputably in the people in the EU's best interests to continue trade as close as possible to current levels with the UK, they benefit to the tune of 68 billion pounds per year from it.

In this very peculiar case the EU can't serve itself and the people who live in it. You might be right in your argument about how this all goes but I hope you are wrong. Either way its a phoney war at the moment.

Some business will be lost. Other business will be gained. If the EU can take a chunk of the UK financial services and its automobile industry then it can compensate for the loss elsewhere. Not to forget CETA who will probably be signed by any moment now hopefully that will compensate to such loss

Brexit will hurt everybody in short term. However it would be ridiculous to expect that that a country which is not in the group to get unrestricted access in the markets of that group. If that was to happen then I guess it would be for a bigger/richer/more relevant market than the UK (US?). Not to forget that for the UK to make a trade deal with the EU then all countries must give their go ahead. There are many countries in the EU who barely sell in the UK market. Most of whom see the UK as a competitor (ie automobile sector) or/and value their freedom of movement. Why would they vote for something that is not in their interest?

Also there's a question about the pound. If it keeps crushing to the ground then I doubt many in the UK would be able to afford BMWs either way
 
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I get irritated by people who say things like "Brexiters only voted that way because they're racist xenophobes" for the same reason I disagreed with much of the brexit campaign itself: It's anti-fact.

There are plenty of logical and reasonable grounds to criticise them on without indulging in random bits of unsupported truthiness.

Also, being called a moaner isn't quite as bad as being called a racist xenophobe. Maintaining a bit of perspective doesn't hurt.

Whether it is true or not, this is the image of Britain that is being projected through their government, tabloids, comments etc.
The government and tabloids like the Mail, Express and Sun have manipulated the people who are not sufficiently informed and pandered to what these people want to believe. It has brought the worst out in people.
 
We simply don't know what forces will be unleashed by this Brexit. I'm not in a hurry to find out either.